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数娱工场 | 《酱园弄·悬案》票房预测直降2亿,暑期档还能否再掀观影潮?
Zhong Guo Jin Rong Xin Xi Wang· 2025-06-26 11:54
Core Insights - The summer movie season is approaching, with significant competition expected starting in July, despite the official start on June 1 due to overlapping holidays and school schedules [1][2] Box Office Performance - "The Case of the Sauce Garden" opened with a strong box office of 180 million yuan within two days, leading the box office for the week of June 16-22, with a total of 5.09 million viewers [3] - The film's initial box office predictions were as high as 750 million yuan, but these estimates dropped to approximately 460 million yuan within three days, indicating a lack of sustained momentum [4] - The overall box office for the week reached 438 million yuan, a 54% increase from the previous week, but market optimism remains cautious due to the film's mixed reviews [3][4] Market Trends - The film industry has seen a decline in box office performance post-Spring Festival, with significant drops in ticket sales during the Qingming and May Day holidays compared to the previous year [4] - The 27th Shanghai International Film Festival reported a total box office of 34.32 million yuan, the lowest in three years, reflecting a broader trend of declining audience engagement [5] Summer Blockbuster Outlook - The summer season is crucial for the film industry, accounting for about 30% of annual box office revenue, with 70 films scheduled for release in 2025 [6][7] - Upcoming films include a mix of domestic and international titles, with strong predictions for several high-profile releases, including "The Case of the Sauce Garden" and various animated films [7][8] Animation Film Potential - Animation films are seen as a key area for growth, with industry experts emphasizing the need for high-quality animated content to attract a broader audience [10][11] - The success of "Nezha: Birth of the Demon Child" has raised expectations for animated films, which currently account for 67% of the total box office in 2025 [12] Industry Challenges - The film industry faces challenges in maintaining audience interest, with calls for a focus on improving film quality rather than solely relying on blockbuster releases [15][16] - The current box office revenue-sharing model is under scrutiny, with suggestions to diversify income sources beyond ticket sales [13] Conclusion - The upcoming summer movie season presents both opportunities and challenges for the film industry, with a diverse lineup of films and a critical need for quality content to drive audience engagement and box office recovery [16]