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就业不断下修——4月美国非农数据解读【陈兴团队·财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-05-03 05:57
Core Viewpoint - The April non-farm payroll data indicates a slight decline in employment growth, with potential implications for the overall labor market stability and economic outlook [1][3][17]. Group 1: Employment Data - In April, the non-farm employment increased by 177,000, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous month [3]. - The combined downward revision of 58,000 jobs for February and March suggests a cooling trend in the job market [3]. - The three-month moving average of non-farm employment indicates a downward trend, pointing to a continued softening in the employment market [3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Job growth in April was primarily concentrated in the education and healthcare sectors (70,000), transportation and warehousing (29,000), and leisure and hospitality (24,000) [5]. - Retail and leisure hotel sectors experienced the most significant declines, with reductions of 24,000 and 14,000 jobs, respectively [5]. Group 3: Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in April, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate by 0.1 percentage points [7]. - The U6 unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.8%, indicating a stable employment market [7]. Group 4: Labor Market Dynamics - The number of job vacancies decreased to 7.19 million in March, with a vacancy rate of 4.3%, the lowest in nearly six months [9]. - The labor supply-demand gap recorded 110,000, indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels and suggesting a balance in the labor market [9]. Group 5: Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings growth in April showed a slight month-over-month decrease to 0.2%, while year-over-year growth remained steady at 3.8% [10]. - The highest year-over-year wage growth was observed in the retail and business services sectors, at 4.5% and 4.4%, respectively [12]. - Real wage growth, adjusted for inflation, increased to 1.4% in March, reflecting a steady increase in wage income [15]. Group 6: Economic Outlook - Following the release of the non-farm data, market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have been slightly adjusted to 3.5 times for the year, indicating a moderation in economic risk concerns [17]. - Despite the stable employment data, the impact of government layoffs and ongoing economic policy uncertainties may continue to dampen hiring prospects [17].