随着美联储年内第三次降息落地，基准利率下调25个基点至3.50%-3.75%，政策重心已全面转向稳定增长，但市场的情绪却并未 随之安稳。美联储主席鲍威尔在发布会上的表态引发了剧烈震动，他直言近期就业数据可能被高估6万人，实际情况或许正处于 每月减少2万人的萎缩状态，这一来自官方的预警，让即将公布的12月非农数据充满了悬念。 资深分析师 鹏程 欧文 主播 梨月 直播时间 1月9日 21:00 – 22:00 更令投资者感到不安的是就业市场深层的滞胀特征。12月以来的初请与续请失业金数据呈现明显背离。截至12月20日当周，初 请失业金人数连续两周下降至21.4万人，短期裁员压力看似缓解，但反映再就业难度的续请失业金人数增至192.3万人，续请失 业率升至1.3%，且未经调整的续请人数周度增幅远超季节性预期。这一背离揭示出当前就业市场"低裁员、低招聘"的滞胀特 征，而运输仓储、制造业等行业的裁员迹象已初步显现。 本次2025年12月非农数据的公布，不仅将验证前期就业市场的降温趋势是否延续，更将直接影响美联储2026年初的政策节奏。 本周五（1月9日）晚九点，人气主播梨月将携手资深分析师鹏程、欧文坐镇「智昇直播间」， ...

Employment Trends - In October, the U.S. added 105,000 non-farm jobs, a significant drop from September's 108,000, but rebounded to 64,000 in November, exceeding market expectations of 50,000[8] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in nearly four years, up from 4.44% in September[8] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits and continuing claims showed slight improvement, indicating resilience in the job market[2] Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to see growth and unemployment rates stabilize by 2026, with inflation initially declining before rising again[2] - The Federal Reserve may consider a rate cut in June as a political gesture, with inflation potentially rebounding in the second half of the year[2] - The labor participation rate increased from 62.3% to 62.5%, with the broader U6 unemployment rate rising to 8.7%[8] Sector Performance - Job growth was primarily concentrated in construction, healthcare, and education services, while manufacturing jobs continued to decline for the seventh consecutive month[8] - Retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, maintained rapid growth in October, indicating consumer resilience[2] - The service sector's PMI employment index and job postings on Indeed showed a slow recovery, suggesting ongoing demand for labor[2]

Overview - The core point of the article is that the U.S. labor market showed resilience in November, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 64,000, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 50,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [1][2]. Employment Data - In November, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, a significant recovery from October's loss of 105,000 jobs [4]. - The private sector added 69,000 jobs in November, up from 52,000 in October, indicating a stable expansion despite government sector disruptions [3][5]. - The unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points from September, attributed partly to a rise in the labor participation rate to 62.5% [1][3]. Wage Growth - Hourly wage growth showed a decline, with a month-over-month increase of only 0.1% in November, down from 0.4% in October [1][4]. - The three-month annualized growth rate of hourly wages fell from 4.2% in October to 3.1% in November [3][4]. Sector Contributions - The service sector remained the primary contributor to job growth, adding 50,000 jobs, with healthcare being a significant driver [3][5]. - The goods-producing sector saw a marginal improvement, adding 19,000 jobs, primarily due to gains in construction, while manufacturing and mining continued to decline [3][5]. Market Reactions - Following the employment data release, market expectations for interest rate cuts in 2026 slightly increased, with a 2 basis point rise to 60 basis points [1]. - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 3.48%, while the 10-year yield remained stable at 4.16% [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the U.S. non-farm employment data for November exceeded expectations, indicating a stronger labor market than anticipated [1][4] - The report shows an increase of 64,000 non-farm jobs in November, surpassing the Dow Jones estimate of 45,000 jobs, with significant contributions from the healthcare and construction sectors [5][6] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021, indicating potential concerns about job market stability [6] Group 2 - Following the employment data release, international oil prices fell sharply, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping below $60 [3] - The U.S. stock market opened lower, with the Dow Jones index down 0.04%, the S&P 500 down 0.18%, and the Nasdaq down 0.23%, reflecting market reactions to the employment data [3] - The Federal Reserve's likelihood of further interest rate cuts remains low, with a 24.4% probability of a rate cut in January, according to market predictions [8]

老美关税壁垒确立后，只要贸易摩擦趋于稳定，那么长期贸易改善其实是板上钉钉的，这方面增加的实际物价上涨，最理想的结果 是能够以出口国的投资或者内部制造成本降低去抵消，那这样的话美国的通胀实际上还是会降低的，而至于制造业的问题，那是3-5 年的周期，现在看意义不大，只要工厂开起来，自然就会有成熟的技工，美国不是没技术，是没有回落地执行技术的工人！ 而在进口端，美国虽保持增长但增速温和，当月进口额3421亿美元，环比仅增0.6%，结构上呈现"刚需消费品进口增长、资本货物 进口收缩"的特征，其中，消费品进口增加102亿美元，资本货物进口却显著减少56亿美元。 因此，美国只要服务业不衰退，经济就有韧性，只要工作能够解决，那么选票就有保障，大抵李斯特的贸易保护主义的精髓，特朗 普都在用，不过数字货币那堆东西，算其对于李斯特经济可持续性的一种突破创新。 不过，和过去不同，以前美国的逆差减少，无非是进口的少了！ 但这一次的数据不一样，其9月贸易逆差数据的超预期改善（美国在2025年9月录得贸易逆差528亿美元，为自2020年6月以来的最低 水平），核心驱动力来自出口端的爆发式增长而非进口的断崖式收缩。 数据显示，当月出口总值 ...

Employment Data - In September, non-farm employment increased by 119,000, but the previous values for July and August were revised down by a total of 33,000[4] - The education, healthcare, and leisure/hospitality sectors were the main contributors to job growth, with government and construction sectors seeing the largest increases of 44,000 and 33,000 jobs respectively[5] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, marking the highest level since the end of 2021, primarily due to an increase in labor force participation[12] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings in September saw a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, while year-on-year growth remained stable at 3.8%[15] - The highest year-on-year wage growth was observed in the business services and financial sectors, at 4.8% and 4.5% respectively[15] - Wage growth has been declining since November 2024, indicating a decrease in workers' bargaining power[15] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor supply is exceeding demand, with the labor demand gap widening to -157,000 in August, indicating more unemployed individuals than job vacancies[12] - The U6 unemployment rate slightly decreased to 8%, reflecting stabilization in the marginal labor market[12] - The market's expectation for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has increased to 40%, although this is a significant drop from the previous week[19] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected inflation increases, tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, and a downturn in the U.S. economy[22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a stabilization in the labor market, with non-farm employment increasing by 119,000 in September, although previous months' figures were revised down by a total of 33,000 [2][18] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, primarily due to an increase in the labor participation rate, indicating more individuals are re-entering the workforce [7][18] - The report indicates that the labor supply is exceeding demand, with job vacancies rising to 7.23 million, leading to a labor market that is gradually shifting towards oversupply [9][18] Group 2 - Employment growth in September was mainly supported by the education, healthcare, and leisure sectors, with government and construction jobs seeing the largest increases [4][18] - Wage growth has shown signs of slowing, with average hourly earnings increasing by only 0.2% month-over-month and remaining stable at 3.8% year-over-year [11][18] - The construction and education/healthcare sectors experienced the most significant declines in wage growth, each decreasing by approximately 0.4 percentage points [13][18] Group 3 - The actual wage growth, adjusted for inflation, saw a slight decline, with real hourly earnings increasing by 0.7% year-over-year in August, down by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [16][18] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts in December has become more uncertain, as this report serves as the last employment data before the December FOMC meeting [18]

Group 1 - The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September, exceeding expectations of 50,000, marking the largest increase since April [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, with the previous value also at 4.3% [1] - Average hourly wage growth year-over-year was recorded at 3.8%, above the expected 3.7%, while the month-over-month growth was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [1] Group 2 - The healthcare sector added 43,000 jobs, with outpatient services contributing 23,000 and hospitals adding 16,000 jobs [3] - The restaurant and drinking places sector also saw significant hiring, adding 37,000 jobs [3] - Federal government employment decreased by 3,000, totaling a reduction of 97,000 jobs since January [3] Group 3 - The manufacturing sector experienced a decline of 6,000 jobs in September, continuing a concerning trend [3] - Analysts express concerns over the slowdown in wage growth, which may lead to a deceleration in overall labor income [3] - The expectation remains that the Federal Reserve will pause any rate cuts in December, despite increased bets on potential cuts [4]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international oil prices are attributed to new sanctions targeting Russia's energy sector, with Brent crude oil prices surging nearly 6% [1] Group 1: Sanctions Overview - Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Western sanctions have escalated, impacting various sectors including finance and energy, with over 30,000 sanctions imposed by October 2025 [3][5] - The initial focus of sanctions was on the financial sector, leading to significant disruptions in trade and a sharp decline in the ruble's value [3][5] - The latest round of sanctions, effective October 22, 2025, included 117 new entities and vessels, directly targeting major Russian oil companies [6] Group 2: Impact on Russian Economy - The energy sector is a critical weakness for the Russian economy, with oil and gas revenues constituting nearly 40% of GDP, and a 23% year-on-year decline in oil and gas income reported in September 2023 [8][10] - The sanctions have led to a significant reduction in oil production and an increase in unemployment from 3% in 2023 to approximately 5% by 2025 [11] - Despite a projected GDP growth of 3.6% in 2023, the forecast for 2025 has been downgraded to 0.9%, indicating a slowdown in economic activity [10] Group 3: Broader Economic Consequences - The sanctions have caused a ripple effect across various industries, with financial disruptions leading to inflation rates stabilizing above 8% and essential goods prices doubling [11] - The Russian economy has been forced to pivot towards Asian markets, but high shipping costs and discounts have eroded profits [11] - The overall impact of sanctions is likened to a chronic condition, gradually undermining economic vitality and increasing hardship for the populace [11][12] Group 4: Lessons and Future Outlook - The experience of Russia over the past three years highlights the risks of over-reliance on a single economic strategy, emphasizing the need for self-sufficiency [12][14] - In contrast, China has developed a robust industrial chain and diversified energy supply strategies, positioning itself to withstand potential sanctions [12][14]

Economic Growth - The UK economy experienced a slight recovery in August, with GDP increasing by 0.1% after a 0.1% decline in July, aligning with economists' median expectations [1][3] - Manufacturing output rose by 0.7%, exceeding expectations, while the services sector remained stagnant for two consecutive months [1][3] Sector Performance - In the three months leading up to August, the UK GDP grew by 0.3%, indicating potential growth for the third quarter [3] - The manufacturing sector saw growth in 8 out of 13 sub-sectors, with the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector contributing the most at a growth rate of 3% [6] - Despite an increase in retail sales, the services sector failed to expand, with declines noted in wholesale, entertainment, and transportation sectors [6] Trade Dynamics - In August, UK goods imports remained flat, while exports decreased, with a notable decline of approximately £700 million in exports to the United States [7]