相关报告 1.《 就业转向供过于求——8 月美国非农数 2025-09-06 据解读》 2.《政府就业被高估——7 月美国非农数据 解读》 2025-08-02 3.《政府支撑就业上升——6 月美国非农数 据解读》 4.《就业降温趋势不变 -- 5 月美国非农数 据解读》 5.《就业不断下修――4 月美国非农数据解 读》 2025-05-03 and Path Till and Till and State of the Same of the Same ■ 证券研究报告 【生元 SAC 证书编号: S0160523030002 chenxina@ctsec.com 分析师 马乐怡 SAC 证书编号: S0160525090010 malv@ctsec.com 宏观月报 / 2025.11.21 核心观点 新增非农就业回升，薪资增速持平。9 月新增非农就业升至 11.9 万人, * 但前值再度小幅下修，与上次报告相比，7 月和 8 月两个月合计共下调 3.3 万 人。本月教育保健和休闲酒店仍是新增就业的主要支撑，多数行业新增就业 回升,其中政府和建筑业新增就业回升幅度最大。不过,随着接受递延辞职的 联邦员工正 ...

教育保健和休闲酒店仍是主要支撑。 具体行业来看，9月新增就业集中于教育保健和休闲酒店业。多数行业新增就业增加，政府和建筑业新增就业较上月分别 增加了4.4万人和3.3万人。而运输仓储业和其他服务新增就业人数下降最多，分别减少了2.8万人和1.9万人。 失业率续创2021年年底以来新高。 9月失业率小幅上升0.1个百分点至4.4%，继续录得2021年底以来新高。失业率上升，主因9月劳动参与率回升0.1个百分点 至62.4%，显示重返劳动力市场的人增加。不过，就业率上升0.1个百分点。同时，U6失业率回落0.1个百分点至8%，边缘劳动力就业率企稳。综合来看，本月 就业市场有所企稳。 新增非农就业回升，薪资增速持平。 9月新增非农就业升至11.9万人，但前值再度小幅下修，与上次报告相比，7月和8月两个月合计共下调3.3万人。本月教育 保健和休闲酒店仍是新增就业的主要支撑，多数行业新增就业回升，其中政府和建筑业新增就业回升幅度最大。不过，随着接受递延辞职的联邦员工正式退 出，未来政府就业或将大幅下降。工资方面，9月时薪同比增速较上月持平。 失业率小幅上升。 9月失业率小幅上行至4.4%，劳动参与率回升或是主要原因，永 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. added 119,000 jobs in September, exceeding expectations of 50,000, marking the largest increase since April [1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3%, with the previous value also at 4.3% [1] - Average hourly wage growth year-over-year was recorded at 3.8%, above the expected 3.7%, while the month-over-month growth was 0.2%, below the expected 0.3% [1] Group 2 - The healthcare sector added 43,000 jobs, with outpatient services contributing 23,000 and hospitals adding 16,000 jobs [3] - The restaurant and drinking places sector also saw significant hiring, adding 37,000 jobs [3] - Federal government employment decreased by 3,000, totaling a reduction of 97,000 jobs since January [3] Group 3 - The manufacturing sector experienced a decline of 6,000 jobs in September, continuing a concerning trend [3] - Analysts express concerns over the slowdown in wage growth, which may lead to a deceleration in overall labor income [3] - The expectation remains that the Federal Reserve will pause any rate cuts in December, despite increased bets on potential cuts [4]

Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in international oil prices are attributed to new sanctions targeting Russia's energy sector, with Brent crude oil prices surging nearly 6% [1] Group 1: Sanctions Overview - Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Western sanctions have escalated, impacting various sectors including finance and energy, with over 30,000 sanctions imposed by October 2025 [3][5] - The initial focus of sanctions was on the financial sector, leading to significant disruptions in trade and a sharp decline in the ruble's value [3][5] - The latest round of sanctions, effective October 22, 2025, included 117 new entities and vessels, directly targeting major Russian oil companies [6] Group 2: Impact on Russian Economy - The energy sector is a critical weakness for the Russian economy, with oil and gas revenues constituting nearly 40% of GDP, and a 23% year-on-year decline in oil and gas income reported in September 2023 [8][10] - The sanctions have led to a significant reduction in oil production and an increase in unemployment from 3% in 2023 to approximately 5% by 2025 [11] - Despite a projected GDP growth of 3.6% in 2023, the forecast for 2025 has been downgraded to 0.9%, indicating a slowdown in economic activity [10] Group 3: Broader Economic Consequences - The sanctions have caused a ripple effect across various industries, with financial disruptions leading to inflation rates stabilizing above 8% and essential goods prices doubling [11] - The Russian economy has been forced to pivot towards Asian markets, but high shipping costs and discounts have eroded profits [11] - The overall impact of sanctions is likened to a chronic condition, gradually undermining economic vitality and increasing hardship for the populace [11][12] Group 4: Lessons and Future Outlook - The experience of Russia over the past three years highlights the risks of over-reliance on a single economic strategy, emphasizing the need for self-sufficiency [12][14] - In contrast, China has developed a robust industrial chain and diversified energy supply strategies, positioning itself to withstand potential sanctions [12][14]

Economic Growth - The UK economy experienced a slight recovery in August, with GDP increasing by 0.1% after a 0.1% decline in July, aligning with economists' median expectations [1][3] - Manufacturing output rose by 0.7%, exceeding expectations, while the services sector remained stagnant for two consecutive months [1][3] Sector Performance - In the three months leading up to August, the UK GDP grew by 0.3%, indicating potential growth for the third quarter [3] - The manufacturing sector saw growth in 8 out of 13 sub-sectors, with the pharmaceutical manufacturing sector contributing the most at a growth rate of 3% [6] - Despite an increase in retail sales, the services sector failed to expand, with declines noted in wholesale, entertainment, and transportation sectors [6] Trade Dynamics - In August, UK goods imports remained flat, while exports decreased, with a notable decline of approximately £700 million in exports to the United States [7]

（原标题：今年前9月越南对外投资额增长3.5倍） 《越通社》10月8日报道，越南财政部统计局最新报告显示，2025年1至9月，越南投资者共在境外 新增投资项目134个，注册资本总额达7.093亿美元，同比增长近3倍；另有增资项目23个，增资额达 1.375亿美元。累计期内越南对外投资总额（含新批和增资）达8.468亿美元，较2024年同期增长3.5倍。 越南企业投资覆盖全球34个国家和地区。其中老挝位居首位，投资额3.972亿美元，占比46.9%；其 次为菲律宾（9200万美元，占10.9%）、印度尼西亚（6460万美元，占7.6%）、德国（5060万美元，占 6%）和美国（3330万美元，占3.9%）。 从行业分布看，电力、燃气、热水、蒸汽及空调生产与供应领域吸引投资3.415亿美元，占总投资 的40.3%；批发零售、汽车、摩托车及其他机动车维修行业投资额近1.21亿美元，占比14.3%；运输与仓 储领域投资额1.092亿美元，占比12.9%。 专家分析指出，近年来越南对外投资持续增长，反映出本土企业积极拓展海外市场的主动性不断增 强。他特别提到，部分越南企业在境外实施的项目不仅取得显著的经济社会效益，也获 ...

阿塞拜疆"Caliber"网9月12日报道,阿塞拜疆国家统计委员会数据显示， 2025年1-8月，阿GDP达830.4亿马纳特（488.5亿美元），同比增长1%。其 中，油气行业产值下降2.1%，非油气行业产值增长2.6%。各行业占GDP比重如 下：工业占34.9%，贸易及汽车修理业占10.3%，运输仓储业占7.1%，农林渔 业占6.3%，建筑业占6.3%，旅游住宿和餐饮业占2.8%，信息和通信业占 1.8%，其他行业占20.7%。 （原标题：1-8月阿塞拜疆GDP同比增长1%） ...

Group 1 - Dubai has ranked first globally in the number of greenfield investment projects for eight consecutive half-year periods since the second half of 2021 [1] - In the first half of 2025, Dubai attracted 643 greenfield investment projects, surpassing the second-ranked city by 478 projects, marking a record high since 2003 [1] - The total amount of greenfield investment in Dubai rose to 40.4 billion dirhams (approximately 11 billion USD), representing a year-on-year increase of 62% [1] Group 2 - The total number of FDI projects in Dubai increased to 1,090, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29% [1] - Headquarters-related FDI projects in Dubai saw significant growth, rising from 20 in the first half of 2024 to 32, ranking first globally [1] - Major sources of investment in Dubai include the United States (35%), the United Kingdom (10.6%), France (8.9%), India (8.9%), and Saudi Arabia (5.2%) [1] Group 3 - The primary sectors attracting investment in Dubai are business services (30.6%), hotel and tourism (21.3%), transportation and storage (7.2%), consumer goods (6.6%), and real estate (6.3%) [1]

Group 1 - The Business Sentiment Index (BSI) for South Korean companies is reported at 93.2 for September, indicating a pessimistic outlook as it remains below the baseline of 100 since April 2022, marking a record low [1] - The manufacturing sector's BSI is at 92.6, while the non-manufacturing sector is slightly better at 93.8, with several industries, including non-metallic materials and metal products, expected to remain sluggish [1] - The semiconductor industry has seen a significant decline, with the BSI for the "Electronics and Communication Equipment" sector dropping from 111.1 to 94.7, a decrease of 16.4 points [1] Group 2 - In the non-manufacturing sector, industries such as electricity, gas, and water (73.7), construction (83.7), and transportation and storage (95.5) are expected to continue underperforming [2] - Key economic indicators such as investment (90.6), domestic demand (91.7), and employment (93.2) are all in a low state, with the inventory index exceeding 100, indicating an oversupply [2] - A report from the Korea Chamber of Commerce highlights that 33.9% of companies cite "difficulties in financing" as their primary operational challenge, followed by tax rates (20.9%) and labor regulations (15.8%) [2] Group 3 - The decline in new business establishments in South Korea is attributed to weak consumer demand, poor restaurant industry performance, and a sluggish construction sector, with the accommodation and food services sector seeing a 14.7% year-on-year decrease [3] - The real estate sector has also experienced a 12.8% decline, while wholesale and retail sectors have contracted by 8.1% [3] - Conversely, the financial and insurance sectors have seen a 21.9% increase in new establishments, and professional and technical services have experienced a slight growth of 1.7% [3]

Economic Growth - Morocco's economy is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2024, slightly higher than the 3.7% growth in 2023, driven mainly by domestic demand while facing inflation and increased financing needs [1] - The GDP growth at current prices is expected to be 7.9% in 2024, down from 11% in 2023, indicating a reduction in inflationary pressures [1] Sector Performance - The primary sector is underperforming, with an overall value added decline of 4.5%, agricultural output shrinking by 4.8%, and fisheries growth slowing from 6.9% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 [1] - The secondary sector shows strong growth, with value added increasing by 4.2% in 2024 compared to only 0.8% in 2023, driven by mining (+13%), construction (+5%), manufacturing (+3.3%), and utilities (+2.6%) [1] - The tertiary sector remains active but experiences a slight slowdown, with growth rates decreasing from 5% in 2023 to 4.6% in 2024, although sectors like transportation and storage (+7.4%) and financial services (+7.3%) are accelerating [1] Income and Savings - National disposable income is expected to grow by 7.7% in 2024, down from 10.2% in 2023, while the national savings rate rises to 28.9% of GDP, compared to 28% in 2023 [2] - The investment rate is projected to be 30.1% of GDP in 2024, up from 29% in 2023, leading to an increase in the financing gap from 1% of GDP to 1.2% [2]