"美国政府停摆并不常见，因此当劳工统计局要完成规模如此庞大的非农就业报告统计工作时，总会存 在一定的不确定性。" 求职平台玻璃门（Glassdoor）首席经济学家丹尼尔・赵表示，"因此，我认为在 解读这份报告时应保持审慎，做好应对各种结果的准备。" 受美国史上持续时间最长的政府停摆事件余波影响，11 月非农就业报告的发布时间出现异常 —— 并非 惯例的每月第一个周五，而是推迟至 12 月中旬的一个周二。 为何会出现 "一个半" 就业报告？ 这场长达 43 天的联邦资金断供风波，恰逢美国企业和家庭面临关键经济节点的时刻，直接导致大量核 心经济数据的发布陷入停滞。 过去一个月，此前积压的经济数据正逐步解冻，而本周更是迎来集中发布潮：未来三天内，零售销售、 通胀以及就业市场的多份重磅报告将陆续出炉。 其中，非农就业报告与 11 月消费者价格指数（CPI）报告还带着一份 "假日惊喜"—— 两份报告都将附 带约半数的 10 月数据。 若非这一情况前所未有，倒真有点像节日季里常见的 "买一送一享五折" 促销活动。 市场预计，周二早间发布的非农就业报告将显示，11 月美国非农部门仅新增就业岗位 4 万个，失业率 将稳定在 ...

Group 1: Report Core Information - The report is about the US employment market as of November 20, 2025 [2] - The key data includes non - farm employment, recruitment, unemployment rate, and salary growth rate [2][3][4] Group 2: Recruitment Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the monthly average recruitment plan dropped significantly to 30,447 people, a decrease of 80,766 people compared to the September average, and it was 127,000 in 2021 (104,000 in 2019) [3] Group 3: Non - farm Employment - As of September 2025, the total non - farm employment increased by 119,000, with the government adding 22,000 and enterprises adding 97,000 [3] - In terms of industry structure, the retail industry added 139,000, the wholesale industry added 94,000, and the financial industry added 50,000 in September [3] - The unemployment rate in September rose to 4.4%, the highest since October 2021 [3] Group 4: Salary Growth Rate - As of September 2025, the average weekly salary growth rate of private non - farm employment increased to 3.8%, a slight increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to August [4] - In September, the growth rate of goods production was 3.7% (down 0.3 pct), and in service production, trade and transportation increased by 2.7 pct, information by 2.9 pct, and finance by 0.2 pct [4] - The non - farm employment presents a situation of apparent stability but internal weakness, with contradictory signals indicating weakening demand and a loose employment structure, which is not enough to prompt an immediate interest rate cut in December but strengthens the need for a subsequent interest rate cut cycle [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. labor market shows signs of resilience with a notable rebound in non-farm payrolls, indicating that employment changes are not linear and that previous weaknesses were partly due to external shocks like tariffs [1][5][6]. Group 1: Non-Farm Payrolls and Employment Trends - In September, the U.S. added 119,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 50,000 and the Dallas Fed's estimated 30,000 jobs needed for labor market balance [1][5]. - The healthcare sector contributed the most with 57,000 jobs, followed by leisure and hospitality with 47,000, and construction with 19,000 [1][6]. - The transportation and warehousing sector saw a decline of 25,000 jobs, reflecting broader economic sensitivity and automation trends [6]. Group 2: Unemployment Rate and Labor Force Participation - The unemployment rate rose to 4.44%, marking a high point for the current cycle, with an increase in both employed (251,000) and unemployed (219,000) individuals [2][7]. - Labor force participation slightly increased to 62.4%, with notable improvements among younger demographics, while the core working age group (25-54) saw stagnant participation and rising unemployment [7][8]. Group 3: Wage Growth and Labor Market Indicators - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.79% year-over-year, slightly lower than the previous 3.83%, while the Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private showed a stronger growth of 4.65% [12][13]. - Average weekly hours remained stable at 34.2 hours, indicating cautious labor scheduling by employers [12][13]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is likely to pause interest rate cuts in December, influenced by the rebound in non-farm payrolls and the lack of new data due to government shutdowns [3][14][18]. - Market expectations for a rate cut in December are modest, with a probability of 39.6%, reflecting limited changes in economic conditions [4][20]. Group 5: Market Reactions and Sector Performance - Following the employment data release, U.S. stock indices fell, with the S&P 500 down 1.56%, indicating a risk-off sentiment among investors [4][21]. - Defensive sectors such as utilities and healthcare performed relatively well, while technology stocks faced significant declines [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a stabilization in the labor market, with non-farm employment increasing by 119,000 in September, although previous months' figures were revised down by a total of 33,000 [2][18] - The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%, primarily due to an increase in the labor participation rate, indicating more individuals are re-entering the workforce [7][18] - The report indicates that the labor supply is exceeding demand, with job vacancies rising to 7.23 million, leading to a labor market that is gradually shifting towards oversupply [9][18] Group 2 - Employment growth in September was mainly supported by the education, healthcare, and leisure sectors, with government and construction jobs seeing the largest increases [4][18] - Wage growth has shown signs of slowing, with average hourly earnings increasing by only 0.2% month-over-month and remaining stable at 3.8% year-over-year [11][18] - The construction and education/healthcare sectors experienced the most significant declines in wage growth, each decreasing by approximately 0.4 percentage points [13][18] Group 3 - The actual wage growth, adjusted for inflation, saw a slight decline, with real hourly earnings increasing by 0.7% year-over-year in August, down by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month [16][18] - The Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts in December has become more uncertain, as this report serves as the last employment data before the December FOMC meeting [18]

Macroeconomic Outlook - Goldman Sachs updates China's wage growth index [1] - Near-term significant easing policies are less likely [1] - Expect incremental policies in the second half of the year [1]

Employment Data Summary - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 106,000[3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2%[3] - The average increase in non-farm jobs over the past three months is 150,000[3] Sector Analysis - Private sector job growth was 74,000, below the expected 100,000[3] - State and local government sectors added 80,000 jobs, with healthcare contributing 59,000 and leisure and hospitality adding 20,000, accounting for 96% of total job growth[3] - Manufacturing, wholesale trade, and federal government sectors each lost 7,000 jobs, indicating weaknesses in these areas[4] Unemployment Insights - The unemployment rate (U3) decreased from 4.24% to 4.12%, with the permanent unemployment rate dropping from 1.12% to 1.11%[4] - Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 233,000, while continuing claims remained steady at 1.964 million[4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate was 62.3%, slightly below the expected 62.4%[7] - Job leavers contributed 0.07 percentage points to the unemployment rate, while other factors negatively impacted it[6] - The employment diffusion index fell below 50 for the second time since August 2024, indicating a slowdown in job growth[6] Wage Growth Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 3.8%[7] - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private showed a year-over-year increase of 4.5%, down from 4.9% but still above the average of 4.8% for 2024[8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in July is high, with a 63.8% probability of a rate cut in September[8] - Strong employment data and policy stimulus have alleviated concerns about economic downturns, supporting risk assets[8]

Group 1 - The U.S. labor market shows short-term stickiness, with June non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, exceeding expectations of 106,000, and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2% [1][4][6] - Job creation is uneven, with private sector jobs increasing by 74,000, below the expected 100,000, while state and local government jobs added 80,000, and healthcare and leisure sectors contributed significantly to the total [5][6][8] - The transportation and warehousing sector saw an increase of 8,000 jobs, indicating active freight logistics, possibly linked to inventory replenishment in certain industries [5][6] Group 2 - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.24% to 4.12%, with the permanent unemployment rate also declining from 1.12% to 1.11% [2][6][7] - Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 233,000, while continuing claims remained steady at 1.964 million, aligning with expectations [2][6] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, indicating a potential decline in labor supply due to stricter immigration policies [8][9] Group 3 - Wage growth shows stickiness, with June hourly wages increasing by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.8%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [3][10] - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private for June showed a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, down from 4.9% previously, but still above the average of 4.8% for 2024 [10][11] - The overall wage growth supports consumer spending, particularly for lower-income groups, indicating resilience in the economy [10][11] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, with a higher probability of a rate cut in September, influenced by strong employment data and market reactions to fiscal policies [11][12] - The market's concerns about economic hard landing and short-term rate cuts have significantly decreased, supporting risk assets [12][11] - The Fed Watch data indicates a 63.8% probability of a rate cut in September, down from 71.9% previously, reflecting market adjustments to recent economic data [11][12]

Employment Data Insights - Non-farm employment increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the forecast of 110,000 and the previous value was revised up to 144,000[1] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%[1] - Initial jobless claims have decreased from 250,000 on June 7 to 233,000 on June 28, a drop of 17,000[1] Government vs. Private Sector Employment - Government employment rose significantly, with state and local jobs increasing by 47,000 and 33,000 respectively, while federal jobs decreased by 7,000[2] - Private sector job growth was only 74,000, the lowest in eight months, indicating weakness in private employment[2] - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment indices fell to 45.0 and 47.2 respectively, indicating a contraction in private sector employment[2] Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate's decline was primarily due to a drop in the labor force participation rate by 0.09%[3] - Employment among foreign-born individuals decreased by 348,000, suggesting ongoing challenges in labor market participation[3] - Over the last three months, employment for foreign-born individuals has declined by a total of 994,000[3] Wage Growth and Inflation - Average hourly earnings in the private sector rose by only 0.22% in June, down from 0.39% in May[4] - Year-on-year growth in total weekly earnings was 4.5%, lower than the three-month average of 5.0%[4] - The slowdown in wage growth may indicate manageable inflation pressures but could lead to reduced consumer spending[4] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Following the employment data release, the market's expectation for rate cuts decreased from 64 basis points to 51 basis points for the year[5] - The probability of a rate cut in September dropped from 94% to around 70%[5] - Current labor market data does not support immediate rate cuts, as the overall employment situation remains stable despite some weaknesses[5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the average hourly wage in the U.S. increased at a faster pace in May, with a year-on-year rate of 3.9%, surpassing both the previous value of 3.8% and the expected value of 3.7% [1] - The month-on-month wage growth recorded 0.4%, which is higher than the previous month's growth of 0.2% and the expected growth of 0.3% [1] - This data may further support concerns among Federal Reserve officials regarding the inability of inflation to decline in a timely manner [1]

Group 1 - The average weekly earnings in the UK for the first three months of 2025 increased by 5.6% compared to the same period last year, slightly below the forecasted growth of 5.7% [1] - The Bank of England is closely monitoring inflationary pressures in the UK labor market as it considers the possibility of accelerating interest rate cuts [1]