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X @外汇交易员
外汇交易员· 2025-07-21 08:40
Macroeconomic Outlook - Goldman Sachs updates China's wage growth index [1] - Near-term significant easing policies are less likely [1] - Expect incremental policies in the second half of the year [1]
怎么看美国6月非农就业数据
GF SECURITIES· 2025-07-04 08:20
Employment Data Summary - In June, the U.S. added 147,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 106,000[3] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3% and previous value of 4.2%[3] - The average increase in non-farm jobs over the past three months is 150,000[3] Sector Analysis - Private sector job growth was 74,000, below the expected 100,000[3] - State and local government sectors added 80,000 jobs, with healthcare contributing 59,000 and leisure and hospitality adding 20,000, accounting for 96% of total job growth[3] - Manufacturing, wholesale trade, and federal government sectors each lost 7,000 jobs, indicating weaknesses in these areas[4] Unemployment Insights - The unemployment rate (U3) decreased from 4.24% to 4.12%, with the permanent unemployment rate dropping from 1.12% to 1.11%[4] - Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 233,000, while continuing claims remained steady at 1.964 million[4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor force participation rate was 62.3%, slightly below the expected 62.4%[7] - Job leavers contributed 0.07 percentage points to the unemployment rate, while other factors negatively impacted it[6] - The employment diffusion index fell below 50 for the second time since August 2024, indicating a slowdown in job growth[6] Wage Growth Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 3.7% year-over-year, slightly below the expected 3.8%[7] - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private showed a year-over-year increase of 4.5%, down from 4.9% but still above the average of 4.8% for 2024[8] Federal Reserve Outlook - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in July is high, with a 63.8% probability of a rate cut in September[8] - Strong employment data and policy stimulus have alleviated concerns about economic downturns, supporting risk assets[8]
【广发宏观陈嘉荔】怎么看美国6月非农就业数据
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-07-04 06:30
Group 1 - The U.S. labor market shows short-term stickiness, with June non-farm payrolls increasing by 147,000, exceeding expectations of 106,000, and the unemployment rate falling to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3% and previous 4.2% [1][4][6] - Job creation is uneven, with private sector jobs increasing by 74,000, below the expected 100,000, while state and local government jobs added 80,000, and healthcare and leisure sectors contributed significantly to the total [5][6][8] - The transportation and warehousing sector saw an increase of 8,000 jobs, indicating active freight logistics, possibly linked to inventory replenishment in certain industries [5][6] Group 2 - The unemployment rate decreased from 4.24% to 4.12%, with the permanent unemployment rate also declining from 1.12% to 1.11% [2][6][7] - Initial jobless claims fell by 4,000 to 233,000, while continuing claims remained steady at 1.964 million, aligning with expectations [2][6] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.3%, indicating a potential decline in labor supply due to stricter immigration policies [8][9] Group 3 - Wage growth shows stickiness, with June hourly wages increasing by 3.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 3.8%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [3][10] - The Index of Aggregate Payrolls Private for June showed a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, down from 4.9% previously, but still above the average of 4.8% for 2024 [10][11] - The overall wage growth supports consumer spending, particularly for lower-income groups, indicating resilience in the economy [10][11] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut interest rates in July, with a higher probability of a rate cut in September, influenced by strong employment data and market reactions to fiscal policies [11][12] - The market's concerns about economic hard landing and short-term rate cuts have significantly decreased, supporting risk assets [12][11] - The Fed Watch data indicates a 63.8% probability of a rate cut in September, down from 71.9% previously, reflecting market adjustments to recent economic data [11][12]
非农仍强,7月降息或落空
HUAXI Securities· 2025-07-04 01:46
Employment Data Insights - Non-farm employment increased by 147,000 in June, surpassing the forecast of 110,000 and the previous value was revised up to 144,000[1] - The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, better than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.2%[1] - Initial jobless claims have decreased from 250,000 on June 7 to 233,000 on June 28, a drop of 17,000[1] Government vs. Private Sector Employment - Government employment rose significantly, with state and local jobs increasing by 47,000 and 33,000 respectively, while federal jobs decreased by 7,000[2] - Private sector job growth was only 74,000, the lowest in eight months, indicating weakness in private employment[2] - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment indices fell to 45.0 and 47.2 respectively, indicating a contraction in private sector employment[2] Labor Market Dynamics - The unemployment rate's decline was primarily due to a drop in the labor force participation rate by 0.09%[3] - Employment among foreign-born individuals decreased by 348,000, suggesting ongoing challenges in labor market participation[3] - Over the last three months, employment for foreign-born individuals has declined by a total of 994,000[3] Wage Growth and Inflation - Average hourly earnings in the private sector rose by only 0.22% in June, down from 0.39% in May[4] - Year-on-year growth in total weekly earnings was 4.5%, lower than the three-month average of 5.0%[4] - The slowdown in wage growth may indicate manageable inflation pressures but could lead to reduced consumer spending[4] Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - Following the employment data release, the market's expectation for rate cuts decreased from 64 basis points to 51 basis points for the year[5] - The probability of a rate cut in September dropped from 94% to around 70%[5] - Current labor market data does not support immediate rate cuts, as the overall employment situation remains stable despite some weaknesses[5]
【美国5月薪资增速加快】6月6日讯,美国5月平均每小时工资年率录得3.9%,高于前值的3.8%和预期值3.7%,月率录得0.4%,高于前值的0.2%和预期值0.3%,或进一步佐证美联储官员对通胀将未能及时下降的担忧。
news flash· 2025-06-06 12:40
Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights that the average hourly wage in the U.S. increased at a faster pace in May, with a year-on-year rate of 3.9%, surpassing both the previous value of 3.8% and the expected value of 3.7% [1] - The month-on-month wage growth recorded 0.4%, which is higher than the previous month's growth of 0.2% and the expected growth of 0.3% [1] - This data may further support concerns among Federal Reserve officials regarding the inability of inflation to decline in a timely manner [1]
英国今年前三月薪资平均增速略低于预期
news flash· 2025-05-13 06:14
Group 1 - The average weekly earnings in the UK for the first three months of 2025 increased by 5.6% compared to the same period last year, slightly below the forecasted growth of 5.7% [1] - The Bank of England is closely monitoring inflationary pressures in the UK labor market as it considers the possibility of accelerating interest rate cuts [1]
就业不断下修——4月美国非农数据解读【陈兴团队·财通宏观】
陈兴宏观研究· 2025-05-03 05:57
Core Viewpoint - The April non-farm payroll data indicates a slight decline in employment growth, with potential implications for the overall labor market stability and economic outlook [1][3][17]. Group 1: Employment Data - In April, the non-farm employment increased by 177,000, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous month [3]. - The combined downward revision of 58,000 jobs for February and March suggests a cooling trend in the job market [3]. - The three-month moving average of non-farm employment indicates a downward trend, pointing to a continued softening in the employment market [3]. Group 2: Sector Performance - Job growth in April was primarily concentrated in the education and healthcare sectors (70,000), transportation and warehousing (29,000), and leisure and hospitality (24,000) [5]. - Retail and leisure hotel sectors experienced the most significant declines, with reductions of 24,000 and 14,000 jobs, respectively [5]. Group 3: Unemployment Rate - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in April, with a slight increase in the labor force participation rate by 0.1 percentage points [7]. - The U6 unemployment rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 7.8%, indicating a stable employment market [7]. Group 4: Labor Market Dynamics - The number of job vacancies decreased to 7.19 million in March, with a vacancy rate of 4.3%, the lowest in nearly six months [9]. - The labor supply-demand gap recorded 110,000, indicating a return to pre-pandemic levels and suggesting a balance in the labor market [9]. Group 5: Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings growth in April showed a slight month-over-month decrease to 0.2%, while year-over-year growth remained steady at 3.8% [10]. - The highest year-over-year wage growth was observed in the retail and business services sectors, at 4.5% and 4.4%, respectively [12]. - Real wage growth, adjusted for inflation, increased to 1.4% in March, reflecting a steady increase in wage income [15]. Group 6: Economic Outlook - Following the release of the non-farm data, market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have been slightly adjusted to 3.5 times for the year, indicating a moderation in economic risk concerns [17]. - Despite the stable employment data, the impact of government layoffs and ongoing economic policy uncertainties may continue to dampen hiring prospects [17].
金十整理:美国4月非农报告五大看点一览
news flash· 2025-05-02 13:48
Group 1 - Strong employment growth with an increase of 177,000 jobs in April, despite a downward revision of 58,000 jobs in the previous two months [1] - Unemployment rate remains stable at 4.2%, while labor force participation rate rises to 62.6% [1] - Average hourly wage growth slows to 0.2% month-over-month, with a year-over-year increase of 3.8% [1] Group 2 - Healthcare sector added 51,000 jobs, while manufacturing lost 1,000 jobs; federal government reduced 9,000 jobs in April, totaling a loss of 26,000 jobs since January [1] - Market reaction includes reduced bets on Fed rate cuts, rising stock index futures, and a recovery in the dollar index, alongside an increase in two-year Treasury yields [1]
美国就业系列十二:非农超预期增长,薪资温和回落,劳动力市场稳中趋缓
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-04-07 02:05
Employment Data - In March, the U.S. non-farm employment increased by 228,000, exceeding the expected 135,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in March, up from 4.1% in the previous month[1] - The private sector added 209,000 jobs, while the government sector contributed 19,000 jobs[3] Job Market Trends - By March 2025, the average monthly recruitment plan is expected to decrease to 10,000, down from 24,000 in February and 127,000 in 2021[2] - The number of job vacancies in the non-government sector fell to 6.667 million, down from over 10 million in 2022[2] - All ethnic groups saw an increase in employment rates in March[3][47] Wage Growth and Economic Indicators - The average weekly wage growth for non-farm employment was revised down to 3.2% in March, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from February[4] - The overall wage growth remains above the inflation rate, indicating real income growth despite a slowdown in wage increase momentum[4] - The service production index rose by 4.5% in March, with education and health sectors growing by 1.9%[4]