Core Viewpoint - The San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly suggests that one or two more interest rate cuts may be necessary due to vulnerabilities in the labor market [1][2] Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Daly supports the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 3.50%-3.75% [1] - She believes there is a rationale for further action to lower interest rates [1] Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Daly expresses greater concern about the labor market compared to inflation [2] - She highlights a leading indicator of labor market instability, noting that many parents report difficulties for their children in finding jobs [2] - The unemployment rate for recent college graduates is higher than that of the general workforce, indicating challenges in the job market [2] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Daly emphasizes the need for confidence in the gradual fading of tariff impacts and acknowledges that inflation is on a downward trajectory [1] - She warns that a weak demand could quickly shift the current low hiring environment into a "layoff" market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should avoid signaling a pause in interest rate cuts, as various indicators show increasing fragility in the labor market [1] Group 1 - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman emphasizes the importance of not indicating a halt in rate cuts [1] - Labor market indicators are increasingly reflecting vulnerabilities [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the anticipation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech and its potential impact on the US dollar index and interest rates [1][2] - The US dollar index is currently trading around 98.60, with expectations of further upward movement if Powell does not counter the market's rising interest rate cut expectations [1] - The US Treasury market is active, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.339% and the 2-year yield to 3.798%, reflecting concerns over persistent inflation and a weak labor market [1] Group 2 - The market is closely monitoring Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting for signals regarding the Fed's next rate actions, with a 77% probability of a rate cut in September indicated by futures markets [1] - The dollar's ability to maintain its upward trend largely depends on Powell's tone; a dovish stance could push the dollar index above 99.320, while a rebuttal to rate cut expectations could lead to a pullback towards the 98.317 support level [2] - The dollar index has broken through the 98.317 resistance level and is now above the 50-day simple moving average, with the next resistance levels identified at 98.950 and the major target range of 99.177-99.320 [2]