转自：中国证券报·中证网 1月28日晚间，金三江（301059）披露2025年度业绩预告，公告显示，公司2025年营业收入预计4.3亿元 至4.7亿元，较上年同期3.855亿元增长11.53%至21.90%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润预计盈利7000万 元至8000万元，同比增幅31.14%至49.87%，盈利能力显著提升。扣除非经常性损益后的净利润6900万 元至7900万元，同比增长29.85%至48.66%，基本每股收益预计0.30元/股至0.35元/股，较上年同期0.23 元/股稳步提升，股东回报能力持续优化。 报告期内，业务多元布局成为增长重要引擎。公司以口腔业务为核心，稳步拓展食品和药品、高端工业 （含PE蓄电池隔板、硅橡胶等）、绿色低碳高性能轮胎等领域，构建多极支撑的业务格局，有效拓宽 收入来源，增强发展抗风险能力。同时，募投项目产能逐步释放，助力公司持续优化产品结构、提升产 品质量与供给效率，精准匹配市场多元需求，实现规模与效益同步提升。（王珞） 公司业绩稳步增长，源于年度经营计划的精准落地与各项举措的高效推进。报告期内，金三江持续深化 市场布局，积极开拓海内外市场，同时稳固与核心客户的战略合 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Shan Shui Technology (301190) dropped significantly by 17.04% to 22.88 CNY per share, with a total market value of 4.9 billion CNY, following the announcement that the actual controller and chairman Huang Guorong was subjected to criminal coercive measures [2][6]. Company Management Changes - Following the incident, the board of directors appointed Wu Xinyan to assume the responsibilities of chairman and legal representative, as well as the roles of relevant committee members and general manager [2][6]. Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, Shan Shui Technology reported a revenue of 305 million CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.08%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 11.77% to 47.77 million CNY [6][7]. - The company indicated that the production capacity of chlorinated pyridine series products is being steadily released, leading to improved gross margins due to economies of scale and reduced unit costs [6][7]. R&D and Cost Management - Shan Shui Technology has increased its R&D expenses compared to the previous year, focusing on new product development and process improvements to enhance core competitiveness [7]. - Despite rising costs in personnel and benefits due to team expansion, the company has managed to achieve stable growth through effective cost control and efficiency enhancement measures [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 133 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 22.42%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.15 million yuan, a decrease of 85.85% year-on-year. The company maintains its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 41 million yuan, 54 million yuan, and 72 million yuan respectively [2][4] - The company is making progress in the research and development of new products, specifically Low-α ray spherical alumina, and is gradually releasing production capacity from newly established production lines, which is expected to drive future performance growth [2][4] Financial Summary - In H1 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 13.21%, down 12.87 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased depreciation costs as investment projects transitioned to fixed assets [4] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 4.094 billion yuan, with a circulating market capitalization of 3.286 billion yuan [2] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.39 yuan, 0.51 yuan, and 0.69 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 100.3, 76.5, and 56.5 [2][6] Industry Outlook - The global consumer electronics market is expected to reach 1.046 trillion USD in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 15.4% from 2024 to 2029. The Chinese consumer electronics market is anticipated to grow at a rate higher than the global average, reaching 268 billion USD in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5.1% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][10]. Core Views - The company reported a strong performance in Q2 2025, with revenue of 4.59 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.42% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.65%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.88 billion yuan, up 41.39% year-on-year and 56.17% quarter-on-quarter [1][5]. - The company is transitioning from a strategy focused on operational scale to one emphasizing efficiency, optimizing its industrial structure and focusing on its tantalum and niobium main business. This has led to a significant improvement in profitability, with a gross profit of 1.47 billion yuan in H1 2025, a 31.52% increase year-on-year, and a gross margin of 18.47% [2][3]. - The company is actively developing its market in high-temperature alloys, semiconductors, and superconductors, with several key investment projects underway, including the production lines for tantalum and niobium products [2][3]. Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 7.97 billion yuan, representing a 34.45% year-on-year growth, and a net profit of 1.45 billion yuan, up 29.08% year-on-year [1][5]. - The company expects its earnings per share (EPS) to be 0.65 yuan, 0.86 yuan, and 1.03 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 32, 24, and 20 [3][4]. - The projected revenue for the years 2025 to 2027 is 17.18 billion yuan, 22.91 billion yuan, and 27.94 billion yuan, with growth rates of 34.2%, 33.3%, and 21.9% respectively [4][9].

Core Insights - The company has established a leading position in the tantalum and niobium industry, with a complete industrial chain from wet metallurgy of tantalum and niobium ores to deep processing of various tantalum and niobium products, and possesses advanced R&D capabilities in this field [1][2] Group 1: Production and Capacity - In 2024, the company will complete key investment projects, including the technical transformation of tantalum and niobium strip products and the production line for 100 niobium superconducting cavities, leading to significant increases in production and sales [1] - The company's production volume is expected to reach approximately 702 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 61%, while sales volume is projected to be 703 tons, up 49% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Product Optimization - The demand for tantalum and niobium products is expected to grow significantly due to advancements in high-frequency communications, smart vehicles, high-performance AI chips, and new infrastructure projects [2] - As of May 7, the price of tantalum pentoxide was 2,175 RMB per kilogram, an increase of 4.8% since the beginning of the year, while niobium pentoxide was priced at 465 RMB per kilogram, up 5.7% [2] Group 3: Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 1.28 billion RMB in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 210 million RMB, up 13.9% [3] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 340 million RMB, a 30.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 56.5 million RMB, reflecting a 13.6% year-on-year growth [3] Group 4: Strategic Investments - The company holds a 28% stake in the only beryllium processing base in China, which is involved in the research, production, and sales of beryllium and beryllium alloys, with applications in aerospace and nuclear industries [2] - The beryllium processing base is recognized for its specialized research and has achieved a net profit of 230 million RMB in 2024 [2]