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资产配置周报:PPI回升与化工周期推动向好-20260111
Donghai Securities· 2026-01-11 15:06
Group 1 - The report highlights a recovery in PPI and a positive outlook for the chemical cycle, with December 2025 PPI showing a year-on-year decline narrowing to -1.9% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, marking three consecutive months of positive growth [8][9][10] - The report emphasizes the correlation between chemical profitability and factors such as crude oil prices and PPI, noting that historical chemical market trends benefited from demand-driven oil price increases [8][9] - The report expresses optimism for leading chemical companies due to the exit of high-cost petrochemical capacities in Europe and Japan, a slowdown in new domestic petrochemical capacities, and the cost reductions from scale effects and internal synergies [8][9] Group 2 - The domestic equity market showed a preference for growth sectors over cyclical, financial, and consumer sectors, with an average daily trading volume of 28,287 billion yuan, up from 21,111 billion yuan [11][17] - Among the 30 industries tracked, the comprehensive sector (+14.55%), defense industry (+13.63%), and media (+13.10%) saw significant gains, while only the banking sector experienced a decline of -1.90% [11][17] - The report recommends focusing on the petrochemical and non-ferrous metal industry chains, as well as technology sectors such as AI applications, computing power, and commercial aerospace for asset allocation [8][9]