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化工日报:PTA跟随成本震荡,加工费修复-20251112
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-12 05:07
Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost side shows that oil prices are fluctuating, with the market trading around the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine and the news of OPEC+ production increase in December. The PXN is supported by polyester start - up but its rebound space is limited due to high - level PX operation and capacity expansion. The PTA processing fee is expected to improve in the long - term, but the 01 contract still has inventory accumulation pressure. The polyester start - up rate is 91.3% (down 0.4% month - on - month), and the load in November is expected to remain around 91%. The fundamentals of PF are okay, and the processing difference is maintained. The bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The figures include TA main contract & basis & inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trends & basis & inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][10] Upstream Profits and Spreads - The figures involve PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][18] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The figures cover toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - The figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [26][29][30] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, and other inventory and warehouse receipt data [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - The figures include filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, and other data related to downstream polyester load [47][49][50] PF Detailed Data - The figures present data such as polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, and 1.4D equity inventory [69][70] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, and other detailed data of PR [88][94]