交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-24） | | | | 铁矿：供应方面，海外铁矿发运大幅增加，外矿发运量环比增加 447.4 万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 吨至 3516.4 万吨，不过国内港口铁矿到港量延续回落。日均铁水产量环 | | | | | 比回落 0.6 万吨至 236.28 万吨，河北地区停产钢厂复产，本期铁水减量不 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 明显。需求核心仍在地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水平，内需疲弱难改。 | | | | | 港口铁矿石库存小幅回落，仍处于 8 个月高位。铁矿石供需过剩格局难以 | | | | | 扭转，钢厂利润再度挤压，减产检修规模或进一步扩大，但目前钢厂的利 | | | | | 润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈概率不大，铁矿价格高 | | | | | 位震荡为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：受外蒙一亿的进口目标消息影响，叠加供暖季保供会议召开，市场 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 担 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: PR, BR rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Stainless steel, asphalt, short - term corn, M05 of soybean meal, PVC, PP, some petrochemical products [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Index, Treasury bonds, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, precious metals, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, iron ore, manganese silicon, silicon carbide, glass, pure alkali, coking coal, coke, cotton, pulp, logs, crude oil, fuel oil, short - term soybean oil, long - term tin [1] 2. Core Views - The current macro environment is in a relatively vacuum period. A - share lacks a clear upward trend, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences will be gradually digested during index fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces to push the index up [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward movement [1]. - The Fed's December interest - rate cut expectation has cooled down, affecting the prices of various commodities, but different commodities have different responses based on their own fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity and Bond Markets - **Index**: Short - term market differences will be digested during fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces for upward movement [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the rise [1] Commodity Markets - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation cooling affects prices. Copper price decline is limited; aluminum price fluctuates at a high level; zinc has support below; nickel price fluctuates downward; stainless steel needs to pay attention to production; tin is bullish in the long - term [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is affected by OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical factors, and trade policies; asphalt is bearish; PR is bullish; BR rubber may rebound; PTA production declines; ethylene glycol is affected by multiple factors; PP and PVC are bearish; LPG fundamentals are stable [1] - **Agricultural Products**: New energy vehicle demand is strong, but lithium carbonate has upward pressure; cotton market is in a state of "support but no driver"; corn, soybean meal, and other grains have different price trends; pulp and logs have limited upward space; livestock products such as pigs have over - capacity issues [1] - **Building Materials and Metals**: Rebar and iron ore are affected by supply and demand and macro factors; coking coal and coke are affected by steel prices and supply - demand relationships; glass and pure alkali have limited upward space [1] - **Fuel and Oil Products**: Crude oil price fluctuates; fuel oil follows crude oil; asphalt is bearish; PR is bullish; BR rubber may rebound [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Weakening [2] - Soda ash: Oscillating [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [4] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillating [4] - Silver: High-level oscillating [4] - Logs: Bottom oscillating [6] - Pulp: Weakly oscillating [6] - Offset paper: Weakly oscillating [6] - Edible oils: Range-bound [6] - Meal: Oscillating weakly [6][7] - Rubber: Oscillating [10] - PX: Oscillating [10] - PTA: Oscillating [10] - MEG: Widely oscillating [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Viewpoints - The overall market shows a complex trend with different commodities having various performances, affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations. For example, the iron and steel industry is affected by supply and demand and production reduction policies; the financial market is influenced by macroeconomic data and policies; the agricultural and forestry products market is affected by weather, trade policies, and consumption demand [2][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas shipments increased by 4474000 tons to 35164000 tons, while domestic port arrivals continued to decline. Daily average hot metal production decreased by 0.6 tons to 236280 tons. The demand core lies in the real estate sector, with new construction dropping to the 2005 level. The supply-demand surplus pattern is hard to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating [2]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by the news of Mongolia's import target and the heating season supply guarantee meeting, the upward driving force weakened. Although the fourth round of price hikes has been implemented, the profit repair of coke enterprises is limited, and there are obvious differences in sentiment for the fifth round of price hikes. The supply-demand relationship has become looser again, and it is in an adjustment state in the short term [2]. - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Downstream demand is sluggish, and winter storage replenishment has not started yet. The price is mainly oscillating. The key lies in steel demand, and the steel price depends on the implementation of production reduction and anti - "involution" policies [2]. - **Glass**: The spot quotation is relatively weak, and the demand is dragged down by the continuous decline in real estate completion. The enterprise inventory has been increasing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the cold repair of production lines and macro - and production reduction policies [2]. Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day saw declines in major stock indices. Some sectors showed capital inflows and outflows. The market is in short - term consolidation, and the medium - term trend is still upward, suggesting long - holding of stock indices [2][4]. - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank carried out 300 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 110 billion yuan. The spot bond interest rate is consolidating, and the market trend is slightly rebounding, suggesting light - position long - holding of treasury bonds [4]. - **Precious metals**: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may be short - term disturbing factors, while the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical risks provide long - term support [4]. Light Industry and Agricultural Products - **Logs**: The port daily average shipment decreased, and the import volume decreased year - on - year. The inventory pressure is large, and the spot price is weak. It is expected to be mainly bottom - oscillating [6]. - **Pulp**: The spot market price is weakly adjusted, the cost support is weakened, and the demand is poor. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Offset paper**: The supply is stable, the start - up rate decreased slightly, and the market expectation is cautious. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [6]. - **Edible oils**: The overall supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue range - bound operation [6]. - **Meal**: The global soybean supply is relatively loose, and domestic supply is abundant while demand is cautious. It is expected to be oscillating weakly [6][7]. - **Live pigs**: The trading weight fluctuates, the settlement price may face downward pressure, and the slaughter enterprise start - up rate is expected to continue to increase, with the average price expected to oscillate [7]. Soft Commodities and Polyesters - **Rubber**: Different regions have different production situations due to weather. The demand side shows some improvement, but the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation period, and the price is expected to be widely oscillating [10]. - **PX**: Supply is strong, and downstream polyester load has rebounded, with the price mainly oscillating [10]. - **PTA**: Supported by raw materials, the supply - demand relationship has improved, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the cost end [10]. - **MEG**: There is still long - term inventory accumulation pressure, and the price is expected to be widely adjusted in the short term [10]. - **PR**: Lack of support from crude oil and raw materials, with weak downstream demand, the market may continue to be sluggish [10]. - **PF**: The demand side is average, and the supply is relatively loose, with the market expected to be weakly sorted [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillation [2] - Rebar and wire rod: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Uptrend [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Bottom oscillation [5] - Pulp: Weak oscillation [5] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a weak bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a weak bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a weak bias [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a strong bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: Oscillation [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: Wide-range oscillation [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Core Views - The supply and demand surplus pattern of iron ore is difficult to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating. The upward driving force of coking coal and coke has weakened, and the short-term adjustment trend continues. The downstream demand for rebar is sluggish, and the price is at the bottom and oscillating. The demand for glass is weak, and the inventory continues to increase. The market for financial futures and options is volatile, and it is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures. The price of gold is oscillating at a high level, and the long-term support is strong. The price of logs is oscillating at the bottom, and the price of pulp is weakly oscillating. The oil and fat market is range-bound, and the meal market is oscillating with a weak bias. The price of live pigs is oscillating, and the slaughter rate is slowly rising. The price of rubber is oscillating, and the demand is gradually recovering. The PX, PTA, and MEG markets are oscillating, and the PR and PF markets are on the sidelines [2][4][5][8][10] Summary by Category Ferrous Metals - **Iron ore**: Overseas iron ore shipments have increased significantly, while domestic port arrivals have continued to decline. The daily average hot metal output has stopped falling and rebounded, and the demand for iron ore has marginally improved. However, the supply and demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and the price is mainly oscillating [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Affected by the news of Mongolia's import target, the futures market has continued to decline. The fourth round of price increases has been implemented, but the profit repair of coke enterprises is limited. The cost pressure of coking plants is high, and the intention to start work is not high. The supply concerns in the coking coal industry have intensified, and the futures market is in a short-term adjustment trend [2] - **Rebar and wire rod**: The downstream demand is sluggish, and the winter storage replenishment has not yet started. The core lies in the demand for steel, and the domestic demand is difficult to change. The steel price will stop falling depending on whether the production reduction in the fourth quarter of 2025 can be strictly implemented by more than 5% and the intensity of the anti-"involution" policy implementation. Currently, the steel price is expected to remain at the bottom and oscillate [2] Non-ferrous Metals - **Glass**: The spot price has been relatively weak recently, and some manufacturers have started to cut prices. The positive news in the market has been exhausted, and the demand for glass is generally weak. The enterprise inventory has continued to increase. According to the current supply and demand level, the daily melting volume of glass needs to drop to about 154,000 tons by the end of the year to resolve the overcapacity contradiction in the entire industry chain [2] - **Soda ash**: The report does not provide specific information on soda ash, only stating that the investment rating is oscillation [2] Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The previous trading day's stock index performance was mixed, with the CSI 300 rising by 0.44%, the SSE 50 rising by 0.58%, the CSI 500 falling by 0.40%, and the CSI 1000 falling by 0.82%. The precious metals and oil and gas sectors had capital inflows, while the gas and cultural media sectors had capital outflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock index futures [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10-year treasury bond has increased by 1bp, and the central bank has carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 310.5 billion yuan. The net investment on the day is 11.5 billion yuan. The spot bond interest rate of treasury bonds is consolidating, and the market trend is slightly rebounding. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [4] - **Gold and silver**: In the context of a high-interest rate environment and globalization reconstruction, the pricing mechanism of gold is shifting from the traditional core of real interest rates to the core of central bank gold purchases. The price of gold and silver is oscillating at a high level, and the long-term support is strong. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk aversion sentiment may be short-term disturbing factors [4] Light Industry Products - **Logs**: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports has decreased, and the demand is expected to have no significant increase. The import volume of coniferous logs in September has increased compared with the previous month. The inventory pressure is relatively large, and the spot price is running steadily. It is expected that the log price will mainly oscillate at the bottom [5] - **Pulp**: The spot market price of pulp is running steadily. The cost support for pulp prices has weakened, and the demand is not good. It is expected that the pulp price will be weakly oscillating [5] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price of offset paper is running steadily. The supply is stable, and the market expectation is cautious. The paper price profit is low, and the enthusiasm for high-price stockpiling is low. It is expected that the price will be weakly oscillating [5] Oils and Fats - **Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil**: The US soybean crushing has reached a record high, and the demand for soybean raw materials is strong. The production of Malaysian palm oil is higher than expected, and the export performance is strong. The domestic soybean supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the overall oil and fat market will continue to operate in a range [5] - **Soybean meal and rapeseed meal**: The USDA report shows that the US soybean production, export, and ending inventory have all been adjusted down compared with September. The global soybean supply is still relatively loose. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the demand is supported by the high livestock inventory, but the high price of soybean meal suppresses the replenishment intention. It is expected that the soybean meal will be oscillating with a weak bias in the short term [5][8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight of live pigs across the country has fluctuated slightly. The demand for pork has improved, and the slaughter rate has slowly increased. It is expected that the price of live pigs will oscillate, and the slaughter rate will continue to rise [8] - **Rubber**: The raw material supply in Yunnan is stable, while the output in Hainan is lower than expected. The overall inventory is still at a low level. The demand has gradually recovered, and the price is oscillating [10] Chemical Products - **PX, PTA, and MEG**: The PX supply is strong, and the downstream polyester is at the turning point between the off-season and the peak season. The PTA price is mainly oscillating with the cost side. The MEG has a long-term inventory accumulation pressure, and the short-term price is in a wide-range adjustment [10] - **PR and PF**: The PR market may oscillate weakly, and the PF market may be weakly sorted [10]

16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-11-19） | | | | 铁矿：供应方面，海外铁矿发运大幅增加，外矿发运量环比增加 447.4 万 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 吨至 3516.4 万吨，不过国内港口铁矿到港量延续回落。日均铁水产量环 | | | | | 比增加 2.66 万吨至 236.88 万吨铁水产量止跌回升，铁矿石需求边际回暖。 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 核心仍在钢材需求地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水平，内需疲弱难改。 | | | | | 港口铁矿石库存继续增加，全国 45 个港口进口矿库存刷新 8 个月高位。 | | | | | 铁矿石供需过剩格局难以扭转，钢厂利润再度挤压，减产检修规模或进一 | | | | | 步扩大，目前钢厂的利润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈 | | | | | 概率不大，铁矿价格震荡为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：供暖季保供会议召开，市场担忧后续供给端有复产，煤焦上涨驱动 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 转弱。目前坑口焦煤价格高位运行，焦化厂成本压力大，多数焦化厂在亏 | | | | | 损 ...

| | | | 铁矿：鲍威尔鹰派发言引发降息预期摇摆，宏观利好落地，黑色价格回归 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 基本面。供应方面，中国 47 港到港总量回落 544.8 万吨至 2769.3 万吨降 | | | | | 幅达 16.44%，主要是受上期高基数影响，仍处于近期偏高水平。铁水小 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡 | 幅回升，核心仍在钢材需求地产，新开工已回落至 2005 年水平，内需疲 | | | | | 弱难改。港口铁矿石库存继续增加，全国 45 个港口进口矿库存刷新 8 个 | | | | | 月高位。铁矿石供需过剩格局难以扭转，钢厂利润再度挤压，目前钢厂的 | | | | | 利润以及累库水平还不足以自发性减产，短期负反馈概率不大，铁矿价格 | | | | | 震荡为主。 | | | | | 煤焦：供暖季保供会议召开，市场担忧后续供给端有复产，煤焦上涨驱动 | | | 煤焦 | 震荡 | 转弱。目前坑口焦煤价格高位运行，焦化厂成本压力大，多数焦化厂在亏 | | | | | 损边缘，开工意向不高，焦炭第四轮提涨仍在博弈中。河北唐山地区限产 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given reports 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will experience narrow - range fluctuations [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On November 11, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $61.04 per barrel, up 1.51% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $65.16 per barrel, up 1.72%. The spot price of naphtha in CFR Japan on November 10 was $582.25 per ton, up 0.09%. The spot price of isomeric xylene in FOB South Korea on November 11 was $698.50 per ton, down 0.29%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) in CFR China's main port on November 10 was $828.33 per ton, up 0.61% [1] - **PTA**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,648 yuan per ton, down 1.19%; the settlement price was 4,678 yuan per ton, up 0.13%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 4,600 yuan per ton, up 0.11%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,604 yuan per ton, up 0.22%, and the external price index was $620 per ton, up 0.32% [1] - **PX**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,756 yuan per ton, down 1.40%; the settlement price was 6,796 yuan per ton, down 0.03%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,556 yuan per ton, unchanged. The PXN spread on November 10 was $246.08 per ton, up 1.86%, and the PX - MX spread was $129.83 per ton, up 5.70% [1] - **PR**: On November 11, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,696 yuan per ton, down 1.18%; the settlement price was 5,738 yuan per ton, up 0.10%. The market price of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 5,760 yuan per ton, up 0.17%, and in the South China market was 5,800 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [1] - **Downstream**: On November 11, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,550 yuan per ton, up 0.29%; the index of polyester POY was 6,850 yuan per ton, unchanged; the index of polyester FDY68D was 7,100 yuan per ton, up 0.71%; the index of polyester FDY150D was 6,900 yuan per ton, up 0.73%; the index of polyester staple fiber was 6,330 yuan per ton, down 0.08%; the index of polyester chips was 5,630 yuan per ton, up 0.18%; the index of bottle - grade chips was 5,760 yuan per ton, up 0.17% [2] Operating Conditions - On November 11, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 88.03%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate in the PTA industry chain was 76.31%, unchanged; the polyester factory load rate was 89.70%, unchanged; the bottle chip factory load rate was 75.16%, down 1.39%; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales - On November 11, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 54.35%, up 4.35 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 41.02%, down 25.58 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 50.16%, down 32.69 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.1 - million - ton PTA device of South China Ineos is under maintenance, and the restart date is to be determined. A 1 - million - ton PTA device of Southwest Sichuan Energy Investment is scheduled for maintenance on November 7 [2] PX Analysis - **Important Information**: The news that the U.S. Senate passed the first - stage vote of the agreement to end the shutdown improved market sentiment, and the oil market was boosted. The CFR China price of PX on November 11 was $821 per ton. The international oil price fluctuated strongly, squeezing the cost - side support of PX. Domestic PX devices were operating relatively stably, but there was an expectation of slowdown in demand, and the market was dominated by a wait - and - see attitude [2] - **Long - Short Logic**: There was no unexpected news, and the fundamentals were operating steadily. The PX2601 contract closed at 6,756 yuan per ton (-0.62%), with an intraday trading volume of 282,000 lots. Relying on the current abundant MX supply, domestic factories could maintain the PX load effectively. The PX operating rate remained at a high level this year. The recent market was significantly disturbed by rumors. The 8.7 - million - ton PTA device put into production this year promoted the annual destocking of PX, which supported PX significantly. As the industry entered the off - season, the upstream would be more sensitive to the demand - side feedback [2] PTA Analysis - **Long - Short Logic**: The cost side remained stable. The TA2601 contract closed at 4,648 yuan per ton (-0.51%), with an intraday trading volume of 628,800 lots. The crude oil and PX markets showed weak upward momentum. The PTA spot was abundant, the downstream rigid demand was stable, the spot market fluctuated narrowly, and the basis was relatively stable. Many PTA device maintenance plans were carried out as scheduled, and the industry had long expected them. Due to the continuous low processing fees, the impact of device maintenance would be aggravated, but there was no unexpected reduction in supply. The domestic demand market was gradually weakening, but the recent inquiry atmosphere for foreign trade orders was active, and subsequent orders would increase. In the short term, the overall downstream demand was acceptable [2] PR Analysis - **Important Information**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was between 5,710 - 5,820 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated narrowly. The supply - side quotations were mostly stable, and the downstream purchasing willingness was cautious, with general market trading atmosphere [2] - **Long - Short Logic**: Following the cost trend, the PR2601 contract closed at 5,696 yuan per ton (-0.63%), with an intraday trading volume of 31,000 lots. The supply - side operating rate was adjusted slightly, and the overall market supply was relatively sufficient. The downstream terminal purchasing enthusiasm was not high, and the attitude was cautious [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The cost side shows that oil prices are fluctuating, with the market trading around the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine and the news of OPEC+ production increase in December. The PXN is supported by polyester start - up but its rebound space is limited due to high - level PX operation and capacity expansion. The PTA processing fee is expected to improve in the long - term, but the 01 contract still has inventory accumulation pressure. The polyester start - up rate is 91.3% (down 0.4% month - on - month), and the load in November is expected to remain around 91%. The fundamentals of PF are okay, and the processing difference is maintained. The bottle - chip processing fee is expected to fluctuate within a range [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The figures include TA main contract & basis & inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trends & basis & inter - period spread, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [7][8][10] Upstream Profits and Spreads - The figures involve PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [15][18] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The figures cover toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25] Upstream PX and PTA Startup - The figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [26][29][30] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The figures display PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, and other inventory and warehouse receipt data [36][39][40] Downstream Polyester Load - The figures include filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, and other data related to downstream polyester load [47][49][50] PF Detailed Data - The figures present data such as polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, and 1.4D equity inventory [69][70] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - The figures show polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, and other detailed data of PR [88][94]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillatory adjustment [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillatory [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillatory [2] - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda ash: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 50: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 300: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2 - year Treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 5 - year Treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 10 - year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong - biased oscillation [4] - Logs: Bottom - oscillatory [6] - Pulp: Bottom - rebound [6] - Offset paper: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean oil: Range - bound operation [6] - Palm oil: Range - bound operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range - bound operation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillatory [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillatory [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillatory [7] - Live pigs: Oscillatory and slightly stronger [7] - Rubber: Oscillatory [9] - PX: On - the - sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillatory [9] - MEG: Wide - range oscillation [9] - PR: On - the - sidelines [9] - PF: On - the - sidelines [9] Core Viewpoints - The black industry is affected by macro and fundamental factors, with supply - demand imbalances in some products and price trends mainly oscillatory [2] - The financial market, including stock index futures, options, and bonds, shows different trends, with the overall market having short - term adjustments and a medium - term upward trend [4] - Precious metals are supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation data, showing a strong - biased oscillatory trend [4] - Light industry products like logs and pulp have complex supply - demand situations, with prices showing bottom - oscillatory or bottom - rebound trends [6] - Oils and fats and oilseeds are affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies, with overall range - bound operations and oscillatory trends for some products [6][7] - Agricultural products like live pigs have complex supply - demand relationships, with prices showing oscillatory and slightly stronger or downward trends [7] - Soft commodities such as rubber and chemical products in the polyester industry are affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand, with prices showing oscillatory or wide - range oscillatory trends [9] Summary by Category Black Industry - **Iron ore**: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China decreased by 544,800 tons to 2.7693 million tons, a 16.44% drop. The iron water output continued to decline, and the port inventory increased. The supply - demand surplus pattern is difficult to reverse, and the short - term trend is mainly oscillatory [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: The Fed's interest - rate cut, improved Sino - US relations, and low coal inventory support the price. The core contradiction is the low profit of steel mills. The short - term trend is high - level oscillation [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: The macro - level good news has landed, and the price has returned to the fundamentals. The demand for steel is weak, and the price stop - falling depends on production reduction and policy implementation [2] - **Glass**: The news of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe is fermenting, with 4 production lines to be cold - repaired. The demand is weak, and the inventory is increasing. The price trend depends on production - line cold - repair and policies [2] Financial Market - **Stock index futures/options**: The market shows short - term adjustments and a medium - term upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indices [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond is flat, and the central bank has carried out reverse - repurchase operations. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds lightly [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Affected by factors such as central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and inflation data, the short - term trend is strong - biased oscillation [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The port inventory is increasing, the demand is difficult to maintain, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6] - **Pulp**: The cost support is weakening, the demand is poor, and the price is expected to rebound from the bottom [6] - **Offset paper**: The supply pressure exists, the market expectation is cautious, and the price is expected to oscillate [6] Oils and Fats and Oilseeds - **Oils and fats**: The production of Malaysian palm oil is high, the export is strong, and the supply in China is abundant. The overall trend is range - bound operation [6] - **Oilseeds**: The impact of China's tariff policy on the US is short - term, and the supply of domestic soybean meal is increasing. The price trend is oscillatory [6][7] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: The average trading weight is slightly rising, the supply is expected to increase, and the demand support is limited. The weekly average price may decline [7] Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: Affected by factors such as the end of the US government shutdown, oil prices, and supply - demand relationships, the price trends are oscillatory, wide - range oscillatory, or on - the - sidelines [9]

Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillatory adjustment [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillatory [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: Oscillatory [2] - Glass: Oscillatory [2] - Soda ash: Oscillatory [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 5-year treasury bond: Oscillatory [4] - 10-year treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weakly oscillatory [6] - Pulp: Bottom rebound [6] - Offset paper: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [6] - Soybean meal: Oscillatory [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillatory [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillatory [7] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillatory [7] - Live pigs: Oscillatory and bullish [7] - Rubber: Oscillatory [9] - PX: Wait-and-see [9] - PTA: Oscillatory [9] - MEG: Wide-range oscillation [9] - PR: Wait-and-see [9] - PF: Wait-and-see [9] Core Views - The black industry is affected by macro and fundamental factors, with the main line of "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation" for iron ore; coal and coke are supported by fundamentals but face the core contradiction of low steel mill profits; rolled steel and rebar need to rely on production reduction and anti-"involution" policies to stop the decline [2] - The financial market has different trends in stock index futures/options, treasury bonds, and precious metals. The stock market is affected by factors such as policy effects and capital flows, and the bond market shows a short-term consolidation and medium-term upward trend. Precious metals are influenced by factors such as central bank gold purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks [3][4] - The light industry products market has different trends in logs, pulp, and paper products. Logs face supply pressure and weakening demand, pulp is expected to rebound from the bottom, and double-offset paper is expected to oscillate [6] - The agricultural products market is affected by factors such as policy adjustments, weather conditions, and supply and demand relationships. The prices of oils and fats are expected to operate in a range, and the prices of livestock products are expected to be oscillatory and bullish [6][7] - The soft commodities and polyester market are affected by factors such as weather, production capacity, and cost. The prices of rubber are expected to oscillate widely, and the prices of polyester products are expected to oscillate or wait and see [9] Summary by Directory Black Industry - Iron ore: The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China reached 33.141 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 59%. The iron water continued to decline from a high level, and the port inventory continued to increase. The pattern of oversupply was difficult to reverse [2] - Coking coal and coke: The overseas Fed's interest rate cut was implemented, and the domestic 14th Five-Year Plan exceeded market expectations. The coking coal raw coal inventory dropped to the lowest level of the year, and the supply of coking coal in the main producing areas was continuously tight. The market's core contradiction was the extremely low profit level of steel mills [2] - Rolled steel and rebar: The macro good news landed, and the black price returned to the fundamentals. The static valuation of rebar was low, and the steel price stop falling depended on the implementation of production reduction and anti-"involution" policies [2] - Glass: The news of the coal-to-gas conversion and cold repair of production lines in Shahe fermented. The real estate completion continued to decline during the peak season, and the glass demand was weak. The enterprise inventory continued to increase [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The previous trading day, the CSI 300 index recorded -0.31%, the SSE 50 index recorded -0.21%, the CSI 500 index recorded -0.24%, and the CSI 1000 index recorded -0.13%. The refined chemical and chemical raw material sectors showed net capital inflows, while the software and Internet sectors showed net capital outflows [2] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10-year Treasury bond due increased by 1bp, and the central bank carried out a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 141.7 billion yuan. The net withdrawal of funds on the same day was 213.4 billion yuan. The bond market showed a short-term consolidation and medium-term upward trend [4] - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting from the traditional focus on real interest rates to central bank gold purchases. It is affected by factors such as currency attributes, financial attributes, and geopolitical risks. Silver is expected to oscillate at a high level [4] Light Industry Products - Logs: The average daily shipment volume of logs at ports decreased, and the demand was expected to weaken. The import volume increased seasonally, and the port inventory was expected to continue to accumulate. The spot market price was stable, and the market was waiting and watching [6] - Pulp: The spot market price was strong, but the cost support for the pulp price weakened. The papermaking industry's profitability was low, and the demand was poor. The pulp price was expected to rebound from the bottom [6] - Double-offset paper: The spot market price was stable. The new production capacity in South China was increasing, and the supply pressure remained. The market was expected to be cautious, and the price was expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - Oils and fats: The US government shutdown led to a lack of official data guidance. The palm oil production in Malaysia was expected to increase, and the inventory continued to rise. The domestic soybean supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The oil prices were expected to operate in a range [6] - Meals: The adjustment of China's tariff policy on the US improved the short-term market sentiment, but the fundamentals were still cautious. The soybean harvest in the US was completed, and the soybean planting rate in Brazil was lower than last year and the average. The domestic oil mill operating rate recovered to a high level, and the soybean meal supply increased [6] - Live pigs: The average transaction weight of live pigs decreased slightly. Retail investors had a bullish expectation and held back sales. The slaughtering enterprise's purchase average weight increased slightly. The settlement price of live pigs increased, and the market was expected to be oscillatory and bullish [7] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The raw material supply in Yunnan was stable, and the acquisition price decreased slightly. The glue production in Hainan was lower than expected. The cup glue price in Thailand continued to rise. The demand side's production capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory continued to decline. The rubber price was expected to oscillate widely [9] - PX: The production increase atmosphere continued, and the oil price rebound was still weak. The short-term supply of PX increased, and the short-term PXN spread had limited room for further rebound [9] - PTA: The medium- and long-term oil price was expected to be weak, and the cost support was weakened. The PTA supply decreased marginally, but there were new device trials. The overall supply and demand improved, but the cost side was uncertain [9] - MEG: The arrival volume was expected to continue to rise, and the domestic production load recovered. The overall supply was at a high level. The demand side's polyester load was temporarily resilient, but there were concerns in the future. The future supply and demand were expected to be in surplus [9] - PR: The raw material support was limited, and the supply and demand pattern remained stalemate. The polyester bottle chip market was likely to maintain a narrow-range oscillation [9] - PF: The demand side performance was average, but the PX - PTA end had strong bottom support. The polyester staple fiber market was expected to oscillate narrowly [9]