化工日报 | 2026-03-25 价格回调，关注美伊局势 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，近期市场焦点依然在伊朗局势，局势紧张下原油价格上涨。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN113美元/吨(环比变动+32.00美元/吨）。PXN大幅压缩，中东原料供应中断，持续推高 石脑油价格，但PX受下游聚酯需求不佳影响，限制上涨动力。伊朗局势影响逐步扩大，霍尔木兹海峡通行量仍低， 供应中断担忧下PX现货Back结构，浮动价格偏强。近期受原料供应稳定性担忧的影响，PX负荷下降，去库幅度加 大；若原料供应持续受到影响，对其他国家炼厂的影响也会继续扩大。 TA方面，PTA现货基差 -75元/吨 元/吨(环比变动-2元/吨），PTA现货加工费337元/吨（环比变动+106元/吨），主力 合约盘面加工费326元/吨（环比变动+7元/吨），织造负荷和聚酯负荷恢复中，PTA负荷有所下降但影响小于PX，3 月延续累库.但成本支撑下PTA走势偏强，加工费压缩，当前货源较为充裕，现货基差偏弱运行，市场博弈供应减 量和需求抑制哪个影响更大。中长期随着产能集中投放周期结束，PTA加工费预计将逐步改善，远端预期仍较好。 需求方面，聚酯开工率8 ...

化工日报 | 2026-03-18 伊朗局势仍紧张，但下游需求负反馈 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，近期市场焦点依然在伊朗局势，局势紧张下原油价格上涨。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN229美元/吨(环比变动+15.25美元/吨）。中东石脑油出口中断继续推涨亚洲石脑油价格， 同时LNG的出口中断也在需求侧继续刺激石脑油替代需求。伊朗局势影响逐步扩大，霍尔木兹海峡通行量仍低， 供应中断担忧下PX现货结构转为Back结构，浮动价格进一步走强。需求端PTA开工率较高，聚酯负荷修复中。同 时，PX供应问题进一步发酵，受原料供应稳定性担忧的影响，PX负荷下降，去库幅度加大；另外，韩国裂解装置 也在降负，影响烯烃和芳烃供应; 若原料供应持续受到影响，对其他国家炼厂的影响也会继续扩大。 TA方面，PTA现货基差 -72元/吨 元/吨(环比变动-22元/吨），PTA现货加工费132元/吨（环比变动-199元/吨），主力 合约盘面加工费346元/吨（环比变动+42元/吨），织造负荷和聚酯负荷恢复中，PTA负荷有所下降但影响小于PX，3 月延续累库.但成本支撑下PTA走势偏强，加工费压缩。中长期随着产能集中投放周期结束，P ...

化工日报 | 2026-03-17 流通货源偏紧，瓶片大幅上涨 市场要闻与数据 3月12日，PR/MEG主力合约分别上涨7.44%、3.31%，主要原因如下:乙二醇方面，近期国内外EG开工率均有明显 下降，国内开工较2月底高点下降10%以上，除了部分计划内检修，也有半数是受原料供应影响，后续关注企业新 增变化。另外，上周末海外裂解装置降负/停产消息也进一步发酵，当前海外EG负荷也处于低位，4月EG进口预期 下调至35~40万吨附近。EG主港库存也开始下降，今日华东部分主港地区MEG港口库存约101.1万吨附近，环比上 周下降5.7万吨,EG库存拐点或已出现。 对瓶片而言。一方面，近期上游原料出现减产、降负现象，导致聚酯原料价格大幅上涨，聚酯瓶片工厂价格多跟 涨。另一方面，同时大厂不可抗力和削减合约量影响，叠加下游采购旺季，流通货源依然偏紧。当前发货缓慢， 下游集中提货，工厂库存维持低位，加工费预计偏强。 市场分析 成本端，近期市场焦点依然在伊朗局势，局势紧张下原油价格上涨。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN213美元/吨(环比变动-114.50美元/吨）。中东石脑油出口中断继续推涨亚洲石脑油价格， 同时LNG的出 ...

聚酯产业链期货周报 研究员：温健翔 从业资格证号： F03118724 投资咨询资格证号： Z0022792 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 5 | | | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 | 品种 | 逻辑分析 | 交易策略 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 单边：炼厂预防 | | | 受上游原料供应稳定担忧影响，国内部分炼厂已进行了预防性降负措施，国内据悉华东一大厂 ...

化工日报 | 2026-03-12 市场预期供应继续缩减，关注炼厂开工 市场要闻与数据 3月11日，聚酯产业链PX/PTA/PF/PR/MEG主力合约整体再次\"V"字反弹，最终收涨，波动依然较大。昨晚夜盘下 跌为主，主要因为原油价格重心下移;但今日在炼厂继续降负以及部分大厂不可抗力的 消息下上涨。当前特朗普态度边际缓和、G7欲联合释放原油储备、沙特和阿联酋通过出口路线的转移和调整等消 息的确对原油上涨形成了一定压制。但当前战争风险仍在，霍尔木兹海峡也尚未恢复正常通航，原油整体供应还 在减少，而化工品缺乏释放战略储备等平抑措施，炼厂也仍在继续加大减产，对化工品的供应影响仍在持续。 同时，部分大厂宣布不可抗力可能加大上下游链条的违约风险。炼厂减产状态长时间持续可能导致实物货源越来 越紧缺，从而导致逼仓风险加大。当然，若成本端价格持续维持高位，后期也需要关注会不会对下游产生减产等 负反馈影响，近两日江浙涤丝产销数据表现冷清。 市场分析 成本端，近期市场焦点依然在伊朗局势，局势紧张下原油价格上涨。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN310美元/吨(环比变动-45.00美元/吨）。伊朗局势影响逐步扩大，霍尔木兹海峡通行量仍 ...

聚酯产业链期货周报 研究员：温健翔 从业资格证号： F03118724 投资咨询资格证号： Z0022792 目录 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 5 | | | 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 | 品种 | 逻辑分析 | 交易策略 | | --- | --- | --- | | PX&P | 受上游原料供应稳定担忧影响，国内部分炼厂已进行了预防性降负措施，国内据悉华东一大厂一套380万吨重整装置目前已经 停车检修，该装 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 10, the main contracts of PX, PTA, PF, PR, and MEG in the polyester industry chain fluctuated significantly, first dropping sharply and then rebounding with narrower declines. The main reasons were Trump's statement that the war was basically over and the G7's plan to jointly release crude oil reserves, which led to a significant adjustment in crude oil prices. However, releasing strategic reserves can only slow down the rise of crude oil prices, and the fundamental issue lies in the passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz. The war has not completely ended, and the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed normal navigation, so there is a need to be vigilant about the risk of repeated fluctuations in the market [1]. - In terms of fundamentals, due to the excessive market fluctuations recently, spot market transactions are still scarce, and the market is currently in a wait - and - see mood. Some factories still maintain a closed - market or suspended - shipment status, and there are still supply risks and hoarding phenomena. The market also shows differentiation due to the fundamentals and inventory conditions of each variety. If the cost - side prices remain high, attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback effects such as production cuts in the downstream [1]. - The market focus recently has been on the Iranian situation. Under the tense situation, crude oil prices have risen. In the PX market, the PXN was $355/ton (a month - on - month increase of $51.88/ton). Affected by the Iranian situation, the Strait of Hormuz traffic is still low. Under the concern of supply interruption, the PX spot structure has changed to a Back structure, and the floating price has become stronger. The PTA operating rate has increased, and the polyester load is being restored, so the demand for PX has further increased. At the same time, the PX supply problem has further intensified, and the PX load has decreased, with a larger inventory reduction [2]. - In the TA market, the PTA spot basis is - 15 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of +0 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee is 178 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 7 yuan/ton), and the main contract's processing fee on the disk is 360 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 33 yuan/ton). The weaving and polyester loads are slowly recovering from a low level. After the centralized restart of PTA devices, the inventory reduction rhythm has been postponed, and inventory has continued to accumulate in March. However, supported by costs, the PTA trend is strong, and the processing fee has been compressed. Currently, the PTA basis is also rebounding, and the futures and spot markets are rising in resonance. In the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity release ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve, and the long - term outlook is still good [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate is 84.1% (a month - on - month increase of 4.6%). After the Spring Festival, the polyester and weaving loads have been gradually recovering. The continuous rise in raw material prices recently has also driven some speculative demand and inventory reduction. The inventory pressure of polyester products is not large, and the short - term price increase is relatively healthy. Currently, the inventories of domestic and foreign textile and clothing are not high. Attention should be paid to the downstream restocking actions and the situation of textile and clothing export orders. After the digestion of the existing raw material inventory, it may also have a negative feedback effect on the downstream operating rate [3]. - In the PF market, the spot production profit is 168 yuan/ton (a month - on - month increase of 375 yuan/ton). The Middle East conflict has led to a sharp rise in oil prices, and the raw material prices have continued to soar. Direct - spun polyester staple fibers have quickly followed the price increase, but the increase is less than that of raw materials, and the processing margin of direct - spun polyester staple fibers has been compressed. The operating load of direct - spun polyester staple fibers is increasing. In the early stage of the price increase of staple fibers, the sales were active, and downstream customers stocked up intensively, and the factory inventory decreased. However, in the later stage, as the price reached a high level, the market entered a wait - and - see state [3]. - In the PR market, the bottle - chip spot processing fee is 622 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 173 yuan/ton). The price of polyester bottle - chips has risen significantly following the raw materials. In terms of fundamentals, after the Spring Festival, polyester bottle - chip devices have been restarted one after another, and the overall supply has increased slightly. The bottle - chip factories' shipments are relatively concentrated, and the inventory has decreased significantly. In the short term, the bottle - chip price increase is smooth, and the processing fee is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to the transaction situation after the continuous price increase [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures such as the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trend; PX main contract trend, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural - white basis [9][10][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][23] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures include toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [28][31][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures display the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operating rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operating rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing operating rate [49][51][59] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [70][77][80] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [86][88][94]

化工日报 | 2026-03-10 PX供应继续缩减，关注霍尔木兹海峡情况 市场要闻与数据 3月9日，聚酯产业链PX/PTA/PF/PR/MEG主力合约均封于涨停，主要原因依然是紧张的伊朗局势，霍尔木兹海峡通 行量降至低位，依然在影响全球供应链。 上周五以来原油价格大幅上涨，布伦特从上周五15:00的85.28美元/桶上涨至今天15:00的108.42美元/桶，涨幅 27.13%，部分油田减产，伊朗局势对于油田和石油设施的影响明显扩大。周一下午在G7计划释放战储的消息影响 下原油价格冲高回落，但市场对能化商品供应中断的担忧仍在。在此影响下，周一PX/PTA/PF/PR/MEG封于涨停板， 但涨幅明显小于原油，若原油价格维持在100美元/桶以上，预计周二聚酯产业链还将继续上涨。 基本面方面，周一聚酯市场"封盘潮"来袭，市场报价普遍大幅上涨。MEG方面，周一华东部分主港地区MEG港口 库存约106.8万吨附近，环比上周增加6.6万吨，现实港口库存仍维持高位，但目前盘面交易炼厂降负导致后续供应 下滑的预期。PX方面，周一宁波大榭160万吨PX装置意外停车，也进一步加剧了市场的紧张预期，而中国PX3-4 月原本就有一 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautiously bullish stance on PX/PTA/PF/PR in the medium term [4] Core Viewpoints - The PX supply issue continues to intensify, and the monthly spread has strengthened significantly. The main reason is the tense situation in Iran, which has reduced the traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and affected the supply of PX and other varieties [1] - The cost side is affected by the Iranian situation, leading to an increase in crude oil prices. The fundamentals of PX have improved month - on - month, and de - stocking is expected in April. The current reality of PTA is weak, but the long - term outlook is positive [2] - The demand side is performing well. After the Spring Festival, the polyester and weaving loads are gradually recovering, and the raw material price increase has driven speculative demand and inventory de - stocking [1] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on TA and PX's main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [8][9][11] Upstream Profits and Spreads - It shows PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [17][19] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - The report presents toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profits [24][26] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It includes the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [27][30][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows the weekly social inventory of PTA, the monthly social inventory of PX, and various warehouse receipt inventories [38][40][41] Downstream Polyester Load - It presents the production and sales of filaments and short - fibers, the polyester load, and the inventory days of filament factories, as well as the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [49][51][59] PF Detailed Data - It includes the load of polyester staple fibers, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber factories, the operating rate and production profit of pure polyester yarn, and other related data [73][76][78] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It shows the load of polyester bottle chips, the inventory days of bottle chip factories, the spot and export processing fees of bottle chips, and other related data [87][89][95]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a mid - term cautious and bullish rating for PX/PTA/PF/PR [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain PX/PTA/PF/PR/MEG main contracts continued to rise due to the tense Iran situation, which may affect surrounding countries and has already impacted the actual transportation in the Strait of Hormuz [1] - On the one hand, rising energy costs such as crude oil support the polyester industry chain; on the other hand, there is a risk of the US - Iran tension spreading to other Middle - Eastern countries. As the Middle East is a concentrated area for PX and EG production capacity, device shutdowns may have a significant impact on global supply. The Strait of Hormuz issue may also affect the supply of crude oil and condensate to refineries in other regions, leading to passive production cuts or load reduction in refineries, and increasing freight and insurance costs [1] - Due to concerns about the stability of upstream raw material supply, some domestic plants have started preventive load reduction, resulting in an ethylene glycol production loss of about 900 - 1000 tons per day. Zhejiang Petrochemical has reduced its load, with a 2.5 - million - ton PX device under maintenance from the end of last month for 10 - 15 days and a 2 - million - ton PX device to be maintained for 30 - 40 days around the middle of the month. China already had some PX maintenance plans from March to April, with a seasonal de - stocking expectation in the balance sheet. If more refineries at home and abroad reduce their loads, it will further affect the supply of PX and ethylene glycol [1] - In terms of PX, the PXN was $282/ton (a month - on - month change of - $1.80/ton). The actual impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on PX exports from Middle - Eastern refineries is gradually emerging. Under the influence of geopolitics on supply, the PX spot structure has changed, with the April and May spot turning into a Back structure, and the floating price has further strengthened. The PTA operating rate has increased, and the polyester load is being restored. The PX fundamentals have improved month - on - month after the Spring Festival. Maintenance will be gradually implemented from mid - to late March, and de - stocking is expected in April. The medium - term outlook remains good, and attention should be paid to the changes in overseas PX devices under the influence of the Iran situation [2] - For TA, the PTA spot basis was - 46 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 7 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee was 242 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 11 yuan/ton), and the main - contract processing fee on the disk was 388 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of + 18 yuan/ton). The weaving and polyester loads are slowly recovering from a low level. The de - stocking rhythm was postponed due to the concentrated restart of PTA devices at the end of February, and inventory accumulation continued in March. The current situation is still weak, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery. However, in the long - term, as the cycle of concentrated capacity launch ends, the PTA processing fee is expected to gradually improve, and the long - term outlook remains good [2] - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 79.5% (a month - on - month increase of 1.9%). The downstream weaving and polyester loads will gradually recover in March. The current inventories of domestic and foreign textile and clothing are not high. Attention should be paid to the downstream restocking actions and the textile and clothing export orders after the nominal tariff reduction [2] - For PF, the spot production profit was - 4 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 19 yuan/ton). After the Spring Festival, the load of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories is gradually increasing, with most factories starting up around the end of February and early March. The load is expected to gradually increase in March, and attention should be paid to the improvement of downstream orders [3] - For PR, the bottle - chip spot processing fee was 565 yuan/ton (a month - on - month change of - 16 yuan/ton). After the Spring Festival, the overall inventory of polyester bottle - chip factories has slightly increased. The polyester bottle - chip devices are being restarted one after another, and the overall supply has slightly increased. The tight supply - demand situation has been marginally alleviated. The downstream is gradually recovering, and the polyester bottle - chip processing fee is expected to remain stable [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - Figures include TA main - contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main - contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East - China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural - white basis [8][9][14] 3.2 Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX China CFR - naphtha Japan CFR), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][18] 3.3 International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][25] 3.4 Upstream PX and PTA Operation Rates - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [26][29][31] 3.5 Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse - receipt inventory, PX warehouse - receipt inventory, and PF warehouse - receipt inventory [36][38][39] 3.6 Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament sales, short - fiber sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom operation rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine operation rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing operation rate [46][48][56] 3.7 PF Detailed Data - Figures include 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure - polyester yarn operation rate, pure - polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [71][72][75] 3.8 PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures involve polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East - China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle - chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [86][91][93]