化工品期货市场

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宏源期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20250729
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 02:29
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere of bulk chemicals has weakened, and the PTA market has risen and then fallen. The downstream procurement intention is not high. The supply of PTA is sufficient, and it will move in a volatile manner with cost as the dominant factor [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market has a relatively abundant supply, and the downstream terminal purchases according to rigid demand, with the market negotiation atmosphere improving [2]. - After the short - term emotional release, PX, PTA, and PR are expected to operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - On July 28, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $66.71 per barrel, up 2.38% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $70.04 per barrel, up 2.34% [1]. - The spot price of naphtha CFR Japan was $578.50 per ton, down 0.34%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $708.00 per ton, down 1.73% [1]. - The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port was $851.00 per ton, down 2.52%; the CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4812 yuan per ton, down 2.51% [1]. - The CCFEI price index of PTA outer - market was $651.00 per ton on July 25, up 1.88%; the CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6890 yuan per ton on July 28, down 2.44% [1]. - The CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 6000 yuan per ton on July 28, down 2.12%; the market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6010 yuan per ton, down 1.15% [1]. Production and Sales Information - On July 28, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 77.29%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 80.59%, unchanged [1]. - The polyester factory load rate was 86.66%, down 0.35%; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 71.93%, unchanged [1]. - The polyester filament sales rate was 29.00%, unchanged; the polyester staple fiber sales rate was 48.00%, down 30.00%; the polyester chip sales rate was 83.00%, down 47.00% [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 - million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days; Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Market News - The OPEC+ maintains the production - increase plan, and the impact of the production increase is gradually emerging. Although the peak demand season and the improvement of the macro - sentiment provide support, the oil price shows signs of weakness [2]. - PTA will have new device launches in the third quarter, which is mismatched with PX in time. The current PX inventory is at a historical low, with relatively strong bottom support [2]. - It is currently the off - season for polyester consumption. After the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - The domestic PX device operates stably, the new production capacity on the demand side has not produced stably, and the game atmosphere in the market has heated up [2]. - The polyester factory actually carried out maintenance in July, and the operating rate decreased significantly compared with June. The macro - impact on the polyester industry chain has weakened, and it has returned to fundamental - driven, with the supply - demand expectation weakening and prices falling across the board [2].