Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - PTA: Domestic PTA production decreased slightly, and port inventories increased by 20,000 tons this week. The spread between PX and naphtha expanded to $260, and the weak benzene price restricted further increase in PX output. The spread between PX and MX recovered to around $140, driving the recovery of PX load. Polyester downstream load remained at around 88%, and polyester factory inventories were optimistic. Polyester production cuts were mainly in short - fiber and bottle - chip varieties. With improved sales and inventory reduction, and PTA price recovery, the weaving end load increased slightly [2]. - Ethylene glycol: Coal prices recovered, leading to an increase in ethylene glycol prices. Macro - sentiment weakened slightly, and the chemical industry followed the downward trend of bulk commodities. Overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance, especially in Saudi Arabia, was continuously postponed, which affected the market outlook and boosted ethylene glycol prices. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol decreased. Polyester inventories were in good condition, and the downstream weaving load increased [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil price dropped from 486.5 yuan/barrel on August 18, 2025, to 484.2 yuan/barrel on August 19, 2025, a decrease of 2.30 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC increased from 1210.6 yuan/ton to 1215.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.71 yuan/ton. PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.3424 to 1.3454, an increase of 0.0030. CFR China PX rose from 833 to 835, an increase of 2. PX - naphtha spread increased from 261 to 264, an increase of 4 [2]. - PTA主力期价 dropped from 4746 yuan/ton to 4734 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton. PTA spot price rose from 4670 yuan/ton to 4690 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee decreased from 184.7 yuan/ton to 176.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.1 yuan/ton. Disk processing fee decreased from 260.7 yuan/ton to 235.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.1 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from (12) to (8), an increase of 4. PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 41,907 to 37,349, a decrease of 4558 [2]. - MEG主力期价 rose from 4346 yuan/ton to 4384 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha decreased from (86.31) to (86.50), a decrease of 0.2. MEG domestic price rose from 4441 yuan/ton to 4458 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from 86 to 92, an increase of 6 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 80.38%. PTA start - up rate decreased from 77.67% to 75.09%, a decrease of 2.58%. MEG start - up rate increased from 56.93% to 59.36%, an increase of 2.43%. Polyester load (POY150D/48F) remained at 87.30% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - POY150D/48F price dropped from 6770 to 6750, a decrease of 20. POY cash flow decreased from 39 to (3), a decrease of 42. FDY150D/96F price remained at 7100. FDY cash flow decreased from (131) to (153), a decrease of 22. DTY150D/48F price remained at 7955. DTY cash flow decreased from 24 to 2, a decrease of 22. Long - filament sales decreased from 46% to 51%, a decrease of 5% [2]. - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester short - fiber price rose from 6550 to 6555, an increase of 5. Polyester short - fiber cash flow decreased from 169 to 152, a decrease of 17. Short - fiber sales increased from 40% to 53%, an increase of 13% [2]. - Semi - bright chip price rose from 5800 to 5805, an increase of 5. Chip cash flow decreased from (31) to (48), a decrease of 17. Chip sales increased from 70% to 86%, an increase of 16% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 7.2 - million - ton PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: Domestic PTA production decreased slightly, and port inventory increased by 20,000 tons this week. The spread between PX and naphtha expanded to $260, and the weak benzene price restricted the further increase of PX production. The spread between PX and MX recovered to around $140, and the repair of short - process profit was the main driving force for the recovery of PX load. Polyester downstream load remained at around 88%, and the inventory of polyester factories was optimistic. The main production - reducing factories in polyester were concentrated in short - fiber and bottle - chip varieties. With the recent improvement in sales and inventory reduction, and the recovery of PTA price, the load of the weaving end increased slightly [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Coal prices recovered, and MEG prices also recovered. The macro - sentiment weakened slightly, and the chemical industry followed the weakening sentiment of commodities. Overseas MEG plant maintenance, especially in Saudi Arabia, was continuously postponed, which might have a significant impact on the market outlook and boosted MEG prices. The later arrival volume of MEG decreased. Polyester inventory was in good condition, and the downstream weaving load increased [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil price increased from 486.3 yuan/barrel on August 15th to 486.5 yuan/barrel on August 18th, with an increase of 0.2 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC spread increased from 1182.0 yuan/ton to 1210.6 yuan/ton, with an increase of 28.55 yuan/ton. PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.3345 to 1.3424, with an increase of 0.0079. CFR China PX price increased from 827 to 833, with an increase of 6. PX - naphtha spread increased from 256 to 261, with an increase of 5 [2]. - PTA主力期价 increased from 4716 yuan/ton to 4746 yuan/ton, with an increase of 30 yuan/ton. PTA spot price increased from 4660 to 4670, with an increase of 10 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee decreased from 214.0 yuan/ton to 184.7 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 29.2 yuan/ton. Disk processing fee increased from 260.0 yuan/ton to 260.7 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.8 yuan/ton. PTA仓单数量 decreased from 44709 to 41907, with a decrease of 2802 [2]. - MEG主力期价 decreased from 4369 yuan/ton to 4346 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 23 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (91.73) yuan/ton to (91.92) yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton. MEG内盘 decreased from 4462 to 4441, with a decrease of 21 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain Starting Conditions - PX starting rate remained at 80.38%. PTA starting rate remained at 77.67%. MEG starting rate increased from 55.22% to 56.93%, with an increase of 1.71%. Polyester load increased from 86.88% to 87.30%, with an increase of 0.42% [2]. Product Performance - In polyester filament, POY150D/48F price remained at 6770, POY cash flow decreased from 41 to 39, with a decrease of 2. FDY150D/96F price increased from 7095 to 7100, with an increase of 5. FDY cash flow increased from (134) to (131), with an increase of 3. DTY150D/48F price remained at 7955, DTY cash flow decreased from 26 to 24, with a decrease of 2. Filament sales increased from 36% to 46%, with an increase of 10% [2]. - In polyester short - fiber, 1.4D direct - spun polyester short - fiber price decreased from 6555 to 6550, with a decrease of 5. Polyester short - fiber cash flow decreased from 176 to 169, with a decrease of 7. Short - fiber sales decreased from 49% to 40%, with a decrease of 9% [2]. - In polyester chips, semi - bright chip price increased from 5785 to 5800, with an increase of 15. Chip cash flow increased from (44) to (31), with an increase of 13. Chip sales increased from 54% to 70%, with an increase of 16% [2]. Device Maintenance An East - China supplier's 7.2 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [2].

PTA或从成本逻辑转向需求叙事，关注需求拐点信号 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 1. PTA&PX 08月18日，PX 主力合约收6760.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.08%，基差 为-179.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4746.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.64%， 基差为-96.0元/吨。 成本端，08月18日，布油主力合约收盘66.13美元/桶。WTI收62.29美元/ 桶。需求端，08月18日，轻纺城成交总量为509.0万米，15 日平均成交为 482.73万米。 供给端： PX装置开工率维持高位且暂无大规模检修计划，PTA装置近期部分装置存在 重启预期，整体开工率或环比提升，但加工费持续低位背景下，部分工厂 可能存在降负意愿，需关注实际执行情况，短期内供应端矛盾或边际缓 解。 需求端： 聚酯行业开工率高位持稳，短期织造订单季节性回升，轻纺城成交数据突 破近15日平均水平，显示终端需求边际改善对PTA刚需形成支撑。但需警惕 外贸订单持续性及旺 ...

目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第二章 核心逻辑分析 5 聚酯产业链期货周报 研究员：隋斐 期货从业证号：F3019741 投资咨询证号：Z0017025 综合分析与交易策略 | 品种 | 逻辑分析 | 交易策略 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周PX期货价格震荡整理，PX现货浮动价走弱，基差月差压缩。近期威联化学一套100万吨PX和韩国SKGC一套 | | | | 40万吨/年PX检修装置重启，8月下到9月初福化集团160万吨/年PX装置计划重启，大榭石化160万吨PX本月计划 | | | | 提负，福佳大化一套70万吨/年PX装置计划9月检修，PX供应整体呈上升态势，PX长短流程装置利润良好。 | 单边：震荡整理 | | PX&P | | 套利：观望 | | TA | PTA本周供需双增，社会库存继续上升，PTA月差延续走弱。贸易商9月商谈增多，基差小幅走强。供应方面，近 | 期权：双卖期权 | | | 期PTA嘉兴石化220万吨、威联化学250万吨检修装置如期重启，逸盛大连225万吨、逸盛海南200万吨、台化兴业 | | | | 一套150万吨、独山能源一套250万吨PTA装 ...

终端改善， 等待旺季到来 聚酯周报 2025/08/16 马桂炎（联系人） 13923915659 magy@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020397 从业资格号：F03136381 刘洁文（能源化工组） 从业资格号：F03097315 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 PTA基本面 02 期现市场 05 MEG基本面 03 对二甲苯基本面 06 聚酯及终端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度总结——PX ◆ 价格表现：上周走势震荡，09合约单周上涨30元，报6756元。现货端CFR中国下跌20美元，报824美元。现货折算基差上涨50元，截至8月14 日为161元。9-1价差上升22元，截至8月14日为72元。 ◆ 供应端：上周中国负荷84.3%，环比上升2.3%；亚洲负荷74.1%，环比上升0.5%。装置方面，威联石化重启，海外韩国hanwha 113万吨装置降 负停车，SK 40万吨装置重启，沙特134万吨装置重启，马来西亚55万吨装置停车。进口方面，8月上旬韩国PX出口中国11.2万吨，同比下降 0.5万吨。整体上，后续国内检修量仍然偏少，负荷持续偏高。 ◆ 需求端：PTA负荷76 ...

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain continues to face pressure due to weakened cost support and a shift in supply - demand dynamics [1] - The current polyester industry chain is under triple pressure of loose supply, weakening demand, and high inventory, and the price center of the industry chain is expected to remain under pressure in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - **Prices**: On August 1st, the PX主力合约 closed at 6,812.0 yuan/ton, down 1.67% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 126.0 yuan/ton. The PTA主力合约 closed at 4,744.0 yuan/ton, down 1.33% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 86.0 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil主力合约 closed at 71.78 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 69.36 US dollars/barrel [2] - **Supply**: The cost center of the PX link is suppressed by the weakening of crude oil. The continuous low processing fee may lead to the expectation of a reduction in the load of some devices. The centralized maintenance of large - scale PTA plants has gradually ended, and the high processing fee drives the operating rate to remain high, and the supply - side pressure has increased marginally [2] - **Demand**: The single - day trading volume of Light Textile City has reached a new high this year, but the sustainability of terminal orders is questionable. After the seasonal restocking ends, it may return to a sluggish state. The polyester operating rate remains at a high level of 89%, but the low cash flow and high finished - product inventory form a negative feedback, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of subsequent production cuts on the PTA demand side. Under the overseas clothing destocking cycle, the incremental momentum of export orders is insufficient [3] - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventories have been destocked to a medium - low level in history for three consecutive weeks, but the restart of devices in August and the narrowing of the export window will reverse the inventory trend. The explicit inventory in the PX link is at a low level, but the implicit storage capacity is under pressure. The high PTA processing fee stimulates the risk of the implicit inventory becoming explicit. It is expected to gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle after mid - August [3] 3.1.2 Polyester - **Prices**: On August 1st, the short - fiber主力合约 closed at 6,382.0 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,530.0 yuan/ton, down 65.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 148.0 yuan/ton [4] - **Supply - demand - inventory situation**: The PX and PTA futures prices have continued to decline, indicating weakened upstream cost support. The terminal textile demand has weakened marginally. The inventory of polyester products is significantly higher than the five - year average, and the entire industry chain is under the triple pressure of loose supply, weakening demand, and high inventory. It is expected that the price center of the industry chain will remain under pressure in the short term [4] 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of PX futures all decreased on August 1st compared with July 31st. The Chinese main port CFR price of PX spot remained unchanged, while the South Korean FOB price decreased. The PX basis increased significantly [5] - **PTA**: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of PTA futures all declined. The Chinese main port CFR price of PTA spot remained unchanged. The PTA basis, 1 - 5 spread, 9 - 1 spread decreased, while the 5 - 9 spread increased. The PTA import profit decreased [5] - **Short - fiber**: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of short - fiber futures all decreased. The spot price in the East China market decreased, and the PF basis increased. The PF 1 - 5 spread and 9 - 1 spread decreased, while the PF 5 - 9 spread increased [5] - **Other products**: The prices of Brent crude oil, US crude oil, and ethylene glycol decreased slightly, while the prices of CFR Japan naphtha, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The processing spreads of most products changed to varying degrees, and the trading volume of Light Textile City increased [5][6] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 1st, the annual rate of the US core PCE inflation unexpectedly rebounded to 2.8%, and consumer spending was almost stagnant. The US Treasury Secretary expected to announce the nomination for the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. The Japanese central bank maintained the interest rate at 0.5% and raised the inflation forecast. The total value of global gold demand in the second quarter soared to a new record of 132 billion US dollars [7] - On July 31st, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, but two directors voted against it and advocated for a rate cut. The market's bet on the Federal Reserve's annual rate cut decreased by 8BP to 36BP. The US economic growth in the second quarter exceeded expectations [7][8] 3.3.2 Supply - demand - demand aspect - On August 1st, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 593.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.21%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics at 468.0 million meters and that of short - fiber fabrics at 127.0 million meters [9] 3.4 Appendix - The supply side of PX may see a decrease in device load due to low processing fees, while the PTA operating rate is high, maintaining sufficient supply. The demand side has short - term support, but its sustainability needs attention. The inventory side may shift from low inventory to inventory accumulation, and future prices may fluctuate or weaken [36][37]

【PXTA月报20250801】供需基本维持平衡，TA中长期适宜作为 载 日期：2025-08-01 【PXTA月报20250801】供需基本维持平衡，TA中长期适宜作为空配 观点策略 核心观点 2025-08-01 ® 合约: TA509 ® 观点： PTA 震荡下行阶段,后期价格中枢有望下降 ® 逻辑： 供应端二季度集中龄修结束，目下游聚超在谈季转弱，受制于关税等预期可能影响中长期终端消费出口，三季度整体供需搭司偏弱，去年周期结束，PIA在三季度维持肩空母路 产业链操作建议 快速套保 快速套保 (模拟) 场外报价 | 参与角色 | 行为导向 | 情形导向 | 現貨敵口 | | 套保衍生品 | 奨 | 套保比例(%) | 入场价格 | 相关场外产品 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 炼厂 | 库存管理 | 有库存，担心PTA价格下跌 | 多 | 可针对未卖出PTA库存，按比例小部分 | TA509 | 素出 | 100 | 4800 | | | | | | | 套保做空来预防意外风险 | | | | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the prices of PX, PTA, and MEG all declined. PX load remained high, PTA short - term maintenance increased, and MEG's overseas device load was at a high level. The polyester and terminal sectors are about to end the off - season, with downstream demand expected to gradually recover. PX is expected to continue de - stocking, while PTA is in a continuous inventory accumulation stage, and MEG's port inventory is expected to accumulate [11][12][13]. - In terms of valuation, PX's current valuation is at a neutral level, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil. PTA's low inventory level and the recovery of downstream prosperity are expected to result in less upward feedback pressure, and PXN has upward support. MEG's valuation is relatively high, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation PX - **Price Performance**: The 09 contract dropped 250 yuan to 6812 yuan last week. The spot price of CFR China decreased by 28 dollars to 846 dollars. The spot - converted basis increased by 27 yuan to 160 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 90 yuan to 22 yuan [11]. - **Supply**: China's load was 81.1%, a 1.2% week - on - week increase; Asia's load was 73.4%, a 0.5% increase. Subsequent domestic maintenance is still low, and the load remains high [11]. - **Demand**: PTA load was 72.6%, a 7.1% week - on - week decrease. In the short term, PTA maintenance increased, and the overall load will decline [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory at the end of June was 413.8 tons, a 21 - ton decrease. According to the balance sheet, inventory will continue to decline from July to August [11]. - **Valuation and Cost**: As of July 31, PXN was 247 dollars, a 32 - dollar year - on - year decrease; the naphtha crack spread increased by 11 dollars to 85 dollars. The current valuation is at a neutral level [11]. - **Summary**: PXN declined last week. Although the short - term negative feedback pressure on PX is small, the current valuation is at a neutral level. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [11]. PTA - **Price Performance**: The 09 contract dropped 192 yuan to 4744 yuan last week. The spot price in East China decreased by 145 yuan to 4750 yuan. The spot basis decreased by 5 yuan to - 13 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 56 yuan to - 38 yuan [12]. - **Supply**: PTA load was 72.6%, a 7.1% week - on - week decrease. Although maintenance will increase in August, new device production will result in continuous inventory accumulation [12]. - **Demand**: Last week, polyester load was 88.1%, a 0.6% week - on - week decrease. The terminal off - season is about to end, and the pressure to reduce production has decreased [12]. - **Inventory**: As of July 25, the overall social inventory of PTA (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 220.5 tons, a 1.6 - ton increase [12]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee increased by 1 yuan to 176 yuan/ton, and the futures processing fee decreased by 28 yuan to 275 yuan/ton [12]. - **Summary**: PTA's absolute price followed PX down. The processing fee has limited room to operate, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following PX [12]. MEG - **Price Performance**: The 09 contract dropped 140 yuan to 4405 yuan last week. The spot price in East China decreased by 102 yuan to 4480 yuan. The basis increased by 23 yuan to 73 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 36 yuan to - 34 yuan [13]. - **Supply**: Last week, EG load was 68.6%, a 0.7% week - on - week decrease. Subsequent maintenance devices will gradually decrease, and the load will gradually increase [13]. - **Demand**: Similar to PTA, polyester load decreased by 0.6% week - on - week, and the terminal off - season is about to end [13]. - **Inventory**: As of July 28, port inventory was 52.1 tons, a 1.2 - ton decrease; downstream factory inventory days were 13.5 days, a 0.5 - day increase. Short - term port inventory is expected to accumulate [13]. - **Valuation and Cost**: Last week, the naphtha - based profit decreased by 263 yuan to - 568 yuan/ton, and the overall valuation is moderately high [13]. - **Summary**: The fundamentals of the MEG industry are expected to weaken, and there is downward pressure on short - term valuation [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **PX**: The basis rebounded, the spread was weak, the position increased, and the trading volume decreased [31][34]. - **PTA**: The basis continued to be weak, the spread fluctuated weakly, and the position and trading volume data are provided in the report [43]. - **MEG**: The position and trading volume were at a low level, and overseas commodity price data for PX, MEG, and PTA are provided [61][70]. 3.3 PX Fundamentals - **Supply**: Device load rebounded, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in 2025 [77][75]. - **Import**: Imports remained stable in June [81]. - **Inventory**: Inventory continued to decline in June [90]. - **Cost and Profit**: PXN declined, the short - process spread was strong, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated [94]. - **Aromatic Hydrocarbon Blending for Oil**: Gasoline performance was weak, the US - South Korea aromatic hydrocarbon spread, blending relative value, South Korea's aromatic hydrocarbon inventory, and South Korea - US aromatic hydrocarbon trade data are provided [101][111][113]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - **Supply**: New production capacity was put into operation, load decreased, and exports in June were continuously low [135][139][141]. - **Inventory**: Inventory rebounded from a low level [143]. - **Profit and Valuation**: The processing fee was weak [146]. 3.5 MEG Fundamentals - **Supply**: New production capacity was put into operation, the total load was at a five - year high, and import data are provided [150][154][156]. - **Inventory**: Port inventory decreased slightly this week [158]. - **Cost**: Coal prices rebounded, and ethylene prices remained stable [170]. - **Profit**: The profit of naphtha - based MEG weakened [173]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester**: New long - filament devices were put into operation, the basis of staple fiber and bottle chips fluctuated, the start - up rate decreased, export data in June increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, long - filament inventory pressure was neutral, staple fiber inventory increased, bottle chip absolute inventory was high, and the profit of bottle chips and staple fiber was poor [188][191][194]. - **Terminal**: The start - up rate rebounded, textile enterprise orders increased and inventory decreased, raw material inventory preparation decreased, the growth rate of domestic textile and clothing demand decreased, exports were weak, and US clothing inventory was below the pre - pandemic high with marginal increase [215][222][226].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/7/31 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/7/29 | 2025/7/30 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 515. 0 | 528. 6 | 13. 60 | 成交情况: PTA:原油上涨,成本推涨PTA,但PTA主力供应商出 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1095. 4 | 1014.6 | -80. 83 | 货,现货基差走弱。台风、海啸等因素暂未对PTA市场 有明确影响, | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1.2927 | 1. 2641 | -0. 0286 | | | | CFR中国PX | 857 | 866 | 9 | | | PX | PX-石脑油价差 | 279 | 277 | -2 | | | | P ...

PX供应趋紧支撑走强，关注PTA加工费表现 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 07月28日，PX 主力合约收0.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨1.52%，基差为0.0 元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4936.0元/吨，与前一交易日持平，基差为0.0元/ 吨。 供给端：PX装置虽维持较高开工率，但盛虹石化新装置投产延后叠加亚洲 部分装置临时检修，可能导致三季度供应增量不及预期。PTA大厂负荷提升 至76.3%，但恒力惠州新产能释放延后，且福海创450万吨装置计划8月检 修，供应压力短期有所缓解。 需求端：聚酯开工率维持89.5%高位，但轻纺城日均成交回落至1000万米以 下，终端订单季节性转弱迹象显现。随着海外圣诞订单前置效应减弱，织 造环节坯布库存累积至40天高位，或倒逼聚酯环节降负，PTA需求边际转弱 压力加剧。 库存端：PTA工厂库存维持5天历史低位，但社会流通库存已累积至240万 吨，显性库存总量同比增加12%。考虑到主流 ...