化工日报 | 2026-03-03 地缘风险加剧，聚酯产业链大幅上涨 市场要闻与数据 3月2日，聚酯产业链PX/PTA/PF/PR/MEG主力合约高开,分别上涨6.76%、6.44%,5.55%、5.80%、6.00% 上周末美以对伊朗发动大规模军事打击，地缘冲突升级，带动能源化工和贵金属等板块商品价格大幅上涨。上午 原油高开低走，但下午市场对于中东原油供应受影响的担忧加剧，原油再度上涨。 对聚酯产业链的影响而言，一方面原油等能源成本上涨形成支撑;另一方面美伊紧张局势有外溢至中东其他国家的 风险，而中东作为PX和EG产能集中地，若装置停车会对全球供应产生较大影响，中东也是我国EG进口的主要来 源地区。另外，如果霍尔木兹海峡长时间未能正常运行，还有可能会影响全球部分炼厂的原油、凝析油等供应问 题，从而导致其他地区炼厂被动减产或者降负荷，同时海运费的普涨以及保费上调也会对整体物流产生影响。 市场分析 PR方面，瓶片现货加工费621元/吨(环比变动-11元/吨)。春节假期后聚酯瓶片工厂整体库存小幅累积，节后聚酯瓶 片装置陆续重启中，整体供应量小幅回升，供需趋紧格局边际缓解，下游当前陆续恢复中，聚酯瓶片加工费预计 维 ...

| 第一部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 一、PX 海内外开工高位，检修季即将来临 | 3 | | | 二、TA 产能周期拐点，格局预期改善 | 5 | | | 三、乙二醇连续累库，3 月负荷预计下调 | 7 | | | 四、聚酯需求温和恢复，金三银四预期仍在 | 9 | | 第二部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 12 | | 免责声明 | | 14 | 聚酯产业链 2 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 聚酯研发报告 成本支撑增强，格局预期改善 【行情回顾】 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：温健翔 电 话：17660221204 邮 箱： wenjianxiang_qh@chinastock.com .cn 期货从业资格证号：F03118724 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022792 作者承诺 PX 行业利润带来了海内外的高开工，近两个月PX-MX 价差维持在 160-190 美元/吨，同比去年表现较好，PXN 目前较 1 月高点有所回落，但依然维持在300 美元/吨上方，亚洲 PX 负荷接连升高，2 月截至 26 日，国内 PX 装置负荷在 92.4 ...

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 2026 年 02 月 25 日 桐昆股份 (601233) 报告原因：强调原有的投资评级 投资要点： 市场数据： 2026 年 02 月 24 日 收盘价（元） 24.51 一年内最高/最低（元） 24.80/9.63 市净率 1.6 股息率%（分红/股价） 0.41 流通 A 股市值（百万元） 58,723 上证指数/深证成指 4,117.41/14,291.57 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 15.75 | | 资产负债率% | 66.30 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 2,400/2,396 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | dingying@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 ⚫ 风雨四十载铸就全球长丝巨头，产业链一体化优势稳固。公司成立 40 年来专注涤纶长丝产 业 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 2026年以来，化工板块表现亮眼——成交额稳步放大，机构资金持续加仓，芳烃、聚酯产业链等基本面 偏强的板块已率先反弹，主流化工品价格稳步上行。我国化工行业是否具备底部特征？马年伊始，在政 策助力、供给端收紧的驱动下，化工行业能否迎来新一轮上行周期？ 乙二醇 成本底部有支撑 自2025年起，随着裕龙岛炼化一体化项目、宁夏畅亿等装置相继投产，乙二醇产能增长通道重新开启。 进入2026年，巴斯夫等新装置的投产预期进一步强化了市场的远期供应压力预期。 从装置运行情况看，2026年年初至今，乙二醇行业平均开工率为62.55%，虽低于2025年同期水平，但 较2024年同期已提升2.14个百分点。值得关注的是，在产能基数持续扩大的背景下，截至2月12日当 周，全国乙二醇累计产量已达237.51万吨，同比增长1.37%，创下近年来同期高位。与此同时，春节前 后行业检修量维持在偏低水平，装置开工率延续高位运行。开工率高位运行、检修量偏低、产量创同期 新高的特征，已从源头对乙二醇期现价格形成实质性压制，也成为本轮高库存的根本原因。 受春节期间物流 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - From a policy perspective, OPEC+ maintains the policy framework of suspending production increases in Q1 2026, with March production unchanged, providing policy support for oil prices. The IEA monthly report lowers the global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2026, and there is still pressure on supply surplus in Q1. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East cause the geopolitical premium to rise periodically. There is no new policy for the polyester industry chain, and the policy environment remains neutral [3]. - In terms of market rhythm, crude oil fluctuates strongly this week, with prices falling at the beginning of the week due to weak demand and rebounding in the latter half due to intensified tensions in the Middle East. The polyester chain shows a differentiated and volatile trend due to continued negative feedback from downstream and slow post - holiday resumption of work. PX and PTA are relatively resistant to decline and remain strong, while MEG is weak due to high - inventory pressure [3]. - In terms of supply - demand, PX supply is slightly more relaxed, and demand is marginally weak. PTA supply is affected by maintenance, and demand is sluggish, with inventory accumulation accelerating. MEG supply is marginally more relaxed, demand is shrinking, and high - inventory pressure persists. Short - fiber and bottle - chip show a pattern of weak supply and demand [4]. - In terms of valuation, PX profit remains relatively high, PTA processing fees are under pressure, MEG valuation is weak, short - fiber processing fees rise slightly, and bottle - chip processing fees are weak [4]. - In terms of trends, PX fluctuates with crude oil prices, PTA is mainly in high - level shock consolidation, MEG maintains a weak shock pattern, and short - fiber and bottle - chip fluctuate passively with raw materials. In terms of arbitrage, cautiously arrange positive spreads for PX, TA, and EG from May to September, and continue to go long on PTA and short on MEG [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Fluctuations - NYMEX crude oil futures fell by $3.82 to $60.65 per barrel, a decrease of 5.9%. ICE Brent crude oil futures fell by $1.27 to $67.68 per barrel, a decrease of 1.8%. Domestic crude oil futures fell by 1.7 yuan to 460.7 yuan per barrel, a decrease of 0.4%. Naphtha CFR Japan rose by $13.88 to $612.13 per ton, an increase of 2.3% [6]. - PX CFR China rose by $7.34 to $909.67 per ton, an increase of 0.8%. PTA East China spot price fell by 20 yuan to 5130 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.4%. Ethylene glycol East China spot price fell by 107 yuan to 3575 yuan per ton, a decrease of 2.9% [6]. - Polyester chip East China spot price rose by 30 yuan to 5930 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.5%. Polyester short - fiber East China spot price fell by 10 yuan to 6570 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.2%. Polyester bottle - chip East China spot price fell by 50 yuan to 6200 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.8% [6]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets 3.2.1 PX - This week, Zhejiang Petrochemical's reforming unit restarted, and Sinochem Quanzhou's 800,000 - ton PX unit was restarted on January 25 but has not yet produced qualified products. This week's PX output was 758,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.99%. The domestic average weekly PX capacity utilization rate was 91.65%, a week - on - week increase of 1.78%. The Asian average weekly PX capacity utilization rate was 80.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.97% [7]. - According to the PX weekly balance sheet, the supply - demand difference this week was - 29,900 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.3905 million tons [8]. 3.2.2 PTA - During the cycle, Dushan Energy shut down for maintenance near the weekend, and the overall domestic PTA output decreased slightly. This week's domestic PTA output was 1.462 million tons, a decrease of 1900 tons from last week and an increase of 43,700 tons from the same period last year. The domestic average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate was 76.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.20% [10]. - According to the PTA weekly balance sheet, the supply - demand difference this week was 169,500 tons, and the ending inventory was 3.415 million tons [11]. 3.2.3 MEG - This week, Sinochem Quanzhou's petrochemical integration unit completed maintenance and increased its load to normal levels. Satellite Petrochemical's 900,000 - ton production line switched to polyethylene production. The loads of Sanjiang Chemical and Sichuan Petrochemical increased, while the loads of three production lines of Zhejiang Petrochemical decreased. Xinjiang Guanghui's coal - based unit was under maintenance, and the load of Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Yulin Chemical increased. The weekly output was 417,100 tons, an increase of 91,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 6.65%. The total capacity utilization rate was 64.39%, a week - on - week increase of 2.41% [13]. - According to the MEG weekly balance sheet, the supply - demand difference this week was 105,000 tons, and the ending inventory was 2.0186 million tons [14]. 3.3 Product - Specific Analysis 3.3.1 PX - Lack of driving force, PX prices fluctuate with crude oil. Spot prices fluctuate within a range, and the basis between futures and spot strengthens. Short - and medium - term processing fees increase slightly [23][26][29]. - The PX - naphtha spread and PX - MX spread are presented in the report, showing the change trends of processing fees [30]. 3.3.2 PTA - Boosted by costs, PTA prices strengthen slightly. The basis between futures and spot, spot processing fees, and futures processing fees show different trends [35][38]. - PTA production and capacity utilization rates are affected by maintenance, and inventory shows an upward trend. In December, PTA exports were 361,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.86% [39][43]. 3.3.3 MEG - The fundamentals are still weak, and the price center of gravity of ethylene glycol moves downward again. The basis, oil - based, coal - based, ethylene - based, and methanol - based profits, and capacity utilization rates are presented in the report [48][54][55]. - In December, Saudi Arabia's MEG imports were 548,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 82.52%. Port inventory increased month - on - month [64][66]. 3.3.4 Polyester Short - Fiber - The short - fiber processing fees are slightly repaired due to device shutdown. Spot processing fees increase, capacity utilization rate decreases significantly, production and sales are dull, and inventory increases month - on - month [69][74][81]. 3.3.5 Polyester Bottle - Chip - Supply is reduced, and prices follow raw materials to strengthen. The basis, spot processing fees, and capacity utilization rates are presented in the report. In December, bottle - chip exports were 588,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.44% [86][91][96]. 3.4 Downstream Industry Analysis - Polyester, filament, weaving, and dyeing industries: The weaving start - up rate and textile orders decline continuously. The polyester start - up rate is 79.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.45%. Filament production and sales are dull, inventory increases month - on - month, and profits are repaired month - on - month [100][101][103]. - In December, polyester exports were 1.3061 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.96% and a year - on - year increase of 2.59%. The weaving start - up rate is 11.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 47.66%, and textile orders are 5.81 days, a week - on - week decrease of 8.50% [109][112].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core View of the Report The report indicates that due to the ample supply and weak demand, the prices of PX and PTA are under pressure, and future price trends are likely to remain weak. Additionally, the polyester industry chain is also facing downward price pressure and potential inventory accumulation [1][2][3][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **PX & PTA**: On February 12, the PX main contract closed at 7,312.0 yuan/ton, down 0.89% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -299.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 5,220.0 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -60.0 yuan/ton. The PTA plant operating rate is expected to remain stable or slightly increase, and the sufficient supply of upstream PX and weakened cost support may prompt PTA factories to maintain a high operating level, which will put downward pressure on PX and PTA prices. The polyester operating rate may decline under pressure, and the overall weakness in demand will have a negative impact on PX and PTA prices. The PTA factory inventory level may be high, and the negative basis structure indicates that the market expects future supply to be in excess or de - stocking to be slow, which will further suppress PX and PTA prices [2][3][4]. - **Polyester**: On February 12, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,622.0 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,590.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of -32.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume in the Light Textile City continued to decline, reflecting weakening terminal demand. Although the inventories of polyester staple fiber, FDY, POY, and DTY are all lower than the average of the past 5 years, the FDY inventory has increased, indicating signs of inventory accumulation for some products. The prices of the polyester industry chain are under downward pressure, and inventory may gradually accumulate [5]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 0.89% to 7,312 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 5.98%, and the open interest decreased by 1.19%. The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 917.33 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price in South Korea decreased by 0.78% to 886 US dollars/ton. The PX basis increased by 18.08% to -299 yuan/ton [6]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 0.76% to 5,220 yuan/ton, the trading volume increased by 2.54%, and the open interest decreased by 2.05%. The CFR price at the main Chinese port remained unchanged at 667 US dollars/ton. The PTA basis increased by 40.00% to -60 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 13.21% to -92 yuan/ton, while the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 8.33% to 22 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 14.63% to 70 yuan/ton. The PTA import profit decreased by 0.30% to -512.97 yuan/ton [6]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures decreased by 0.48% to 6,622 yuan/ton, the trading volume decreased by 17.17%, and the open interest decreased by 3.85%. The spot price in the East China market remained unchanged at 6,590 yuan/ton. The PF basis increased by 50.00% to -32 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread increased by 61.54% to 84 yuan/ton, the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 21.74% to -56 yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 366.67% to -28 yuan/ton [6]. - **Other Products**: The prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil decreased by 2.99% and 3.05% respectively. The CFR price of naphtha in Japan remained unchanged at 617.13 US dollars/ton. The prices of ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained mostly unchanged, with only the polyester bottle chips increasing by 0.24% [6]. - **Processing Spreads**: The processing spread of naphtha increased by 20.33% to 79.79 US dollars/ton, the PX processing spread remained unchanged at 300.2 US dollars/ton, the PTA processing spread decreased by 0.42% to 313.1 yuan/ton, the polyester bottle chips processing spread increased by 11.15% to -119.5 yuan/ton, and the processing spreads of other products remained unchanged [7]. - **Industrial Chain Load Rates**: The operating rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 75.86%, 89.42%, and 63.43% respectively [7]. - **Inventory Days**: The inventory days of polyester staple fiber increased by 6.91% to 6.03 days, the inventory days of polyester POY decreased by 10.24% to 11.4 days, the inventory days of polyester FDY increased by 10.76% to 17.5 days, and the inventory days of polyester DTY increased by 8.25% to 21 days [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Macro - dynamics**: On February 12, after the release of non - farm payroll data, traders lowered their expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Trump praised the non - farm data and urged the Fed to cut interest rates to the "lowest in the world." The Central Bank of Kenya joined the ranks of African countries increasing gold holdings. The Fed's Schmid favored maintaining interest rates at a "somewhat restrictive" level, and Milan said he would be willing to stay at the Fed if nominated. The Central Bank of Serbia's gold reserves reached a record high at the end of January. India asked refiners to consider increasing purchases of US and Venezuelan crude oil. On February 11, Fed officials believed that the economic outlook was positive, inflation was still high, and there was no urgent need to cut interest rates this year [8]. - **Supply and Demand - Demand**: On February 9, the total trading volume in the Light Textile City was 551.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 28.9%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 460.0 million meters, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics was 89.0 million meters [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Future PX and PTA prices may rise moderately, supported by cost and expected demand improvement [61] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog I. Daily Market Summary 1. PTA & PX - On February 11, the PX main contract closed at 7,378.0 yuan/ton, up 0.96% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -365.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 5,260.0 yuan/ton, up 0.57%, with a basis of -100.0 yuan/ton [2] - On February 11, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 69.08 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 64.2 US dollars/barrel [2] - The PX plant operating rate is expected to remain high, but planned maintenance of some plants may cause short - term supply tightness; the PTA operating rate also remains high, but the risk of unexpected plant shutdowns increases [2] - The polyester operating rate is expected to seasonally recover, driven by the restocking demand of the textile industry, and the improving volume of the Light Textile City will boost PTA consumption [2] - PTA factory inventory is at a neutral level, with relatively limited inventory pressure, providing a buffer for prices [3] 2. Polyester - On February 11, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,654.0 yuan/ton, up 0.42% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,590.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of -64.0 yuan/ton [4] - The trading volume of the China Light Textile City (MA15) shows a downward trend, reflecting weakening downstream textile demand. However, the inventory days of polyester filament (DTY, POY, FDY) and short - fiber are all lower than the five - year average, providing short - term support [4] II. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On February 11, the PTA factory load rate was 75.86%, the polyester factory load rate was 89.42%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load rate was 63.43%, all unchanged from the previous day [5] III. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation 1. Macroeconomic Dynamics - On February 11, Fed's Harker said the economic outlook is good, inflation is still high, and there is no urgent need to cut interest rates this year; Logan was "cautiously optimistic" about the current interest - rate policy and more worried about inflation [6] - On February 10, Fed's Bostic said he began to see doubts about the confidence in the US dollar [6] 2. Supply - Demand (Demand) - On February 9, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 551.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 28.9%, with 460.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric and 89.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric [7] IV. Inference of Future Price Trends - **Supply Side**: PX plant operating rate may remain high, but recent price increases indicate supply may tighten due to planned plant maintenance. PTA operating rate is also high, but unexpected plant shutdowns may affect short - term supply [57] - **Demand Side**: Polyester operating rate is expected to increase, driven by the seasonal recovery of the textile industry, and the increasing trading volume of the Light Textile City will boost PTA demand [57] - **Inventory Side**: PTA factory inventory may be at a neutral level, with little inventory pressure, supporting prices [57]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Cost - neutral; Device change - cautiously bullish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - cautiously bearish; Processing profit - cautiously bearish [5] - PX: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Device change - neutral; Import - cautiously bearish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - neutral; Processing profit - neutral [6] - Ethylene glycol: Core view - neutral; Month - spread - neutral; Spot - neutral; Device change - cautiously bearish; Import - cautiously bullish; Downstream demand - neutral; Supply - demand balance - cautiously bearish; Processing profit - neutral [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA:节前检修兑现，需求加速降负，产业链略压缩，现实端一般但预期尚可，节前关注成本地缘和资金影响，轻仓过节，节后关注需求复工进度 [5] - PX:供应维持高位，需求变化不大，近端浮动价偏弱，PXN略回落，现实一般但预期尚可，节前关注资金节奏 [6] - Ethylene glycol:节前负荷高位，合成气有检修，进口略有改善，需求进入节前放假模式，1 - 2月现实端季节性累库，现实一般但预期节后有改善，节前关注宏观情绪 [7] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weaving Industry - Weaving enters the pre - holiday shutdown mode. As of February 5, the operating rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing dropped to 17% (-36%), 9% (-25%), and 45% (-24%) respectively. Pre - holiday inventory is for 15 - 20 days, which is not high [10] 3.2 Polyester Industry - As of February 6, polyester load is around 78.2% (-6%), cash flow is repaired, and average inventory stabilizes at around 14.6 days. Polyester devices are undergoing pre - holiday maintenance, and the operating rate is slightly decreasing. Polyester benefits are improving, and pre - holiday inventory pressure is not large [15] - Current polyester inventory is slightly rising. As of February 6, the inventories of POY, DTY, FDY, and staple fiber are 12.7, 24.9, 16.9, and 8.9 days respectively [16] - Raw material prices are回调, and polyester cash - flow profit is slightly repaired [19] - In the future, polyester factories will carry out pre - holiday maintenance, and the operating rate may decline seasonally. As of February 6, the polyester load is 78.2%, and the estimated loads for January - February are 88% and 80% (-2%) [31] 3.3 PTA Industry - PTA device changes are small. Before the holiday, New Materials and Ineos are under maintenance as planned, Dushan Energy plans to conduct maintenance on February 10, Sichuan Energy Investment restarts, and three YS devices are under maintenance. There are maintenance plans for two HL devices in March [43] - As of February 6, with the accelerated decline of polyester load, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increases to 232.57 tons, a rise of 14 tons. Inventories in PTA and polyester factories are rising [44] - PTA supply changes little, demand is seasonally decreasing, the PTA industrial chain valuation is slightly compressed. Before the holiday, pay attention to macro and capital influences and hold light positions. In terms of supply, device maintenance is as mentioned above. In terms of demand, on February 5, polyester load dropped to 79.3% (-4.9%), and the estimated loads for January - February are 88% and 80% (-2%). Downstream operating rates are further weakening. The PTA balance shows that there is a slight inventory build - up in January - February, and the processing fee is around 400, not low. Short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical and capital drivers [59] 3.4 PX Industry - US gasoline inventory is rising, and gasoline crack spread is stable [73] - Asian disproportionation and short - process benefits are strong but have slightly declined recently [76] - The aromatics price spread between the US and Asia is slightly widening. The toluene price spread between the US and Asia is $101.1, and the xylene price spread is $90. In December 2025, South Korea's aromatic exports to the US increased, and in January 2026, the exports were 4.1 tons, a month - on - month decline [85] - PX device status: domestic PX load is 89.2%, and Asian load is 81.6%, both at a high level. Domestic load changes little, and Sinochem Quanzhou plans to restart. Some Asian devices are slightly increasing their loads. The overall Asian load remains high due to improved benefits [86] - PX supply remains high, demand changes little, the near - end floating price is weak, PXN has slightly declined, the current situation is average but the expectation is good. Before the holiday, pay attention to capital rhythm. The device load is high. Domestically, Zhejiang Petrochemical restarts after maintenance, Sinochem Quanzhou plans to restart, and some factories slightly reduce their loads. In Asia, some devices adjust their loads. In terms of balance, Asian supply is at a high load, PX has a loose balance and a small inventory build - up from January to March, and PXN is around 290, with the valuation compressed. Pay attention to capital changes [92] - The price spread between the PX outer and inner markets is widening, the PX 3 - 5 month spread is weakly stable, and the TA05 processing fee drops to around 400 [93] - The PTA - Brent oil industrial chain profit slightly declines but is still not low. PXN is around $290, PTA processing fee is 400 yuan, and the disk processing fee is slightly compressed. The overall valuation is not low. Short - term attention should be paid to the macro - market situation [96] 3.5 Ethylene Glycol (EG) Industry - As of January 30, the overall EG load is high, with the total load at 76% and the coal - based load at 76.7% [101] - EG device status: Zhongke Refining and Chemical restarts, Sinochem Quanzhou has a difficult restart, CNOOC Shell may stop production, Satellite Petrochemical plans to switch production in February, Shenghong is under maintenance, Gulei has a maintenance plan in March, and BASF is operating at 90% load. For syngas - based production, some factories are under maintenance, and Shaanxi Coal has a rotation maintenance plan in March. Near - end supply is not low, and maintenance is expected to increase [106] - EG price has dropped from a high level, costs are strong, and benefits are compressed [107] - Overseas maintenance plans are increasing. Some devices in Taiwan, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and the US have maintenance or restart - delay plans. The near - end arrivals from January to February are still not low, but the arrivals are expected to decline from February to March [121] - As of February 2, the inventory in East China's main ports is about 93.5 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.8 tons. The overall inventory is moderately high. The expected arrivals from February 2 - 8 are around 12.3 tons, and the actual arrivals are 11 tons. The expected arrivals from February 9 - 23 are 18.1 tons. During the holiday, the arrival expectation is not high, and there is still inventory build - up pressure at the port as downstream industries shut down. Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 17.8 days (+1.8), and downstream inventory is increasing [128] - In terms of balance, supply is at a high level, imports are slightly improving, demand is seasonally entering the holiday shutdown mode. The current situation is average, but the expectation is good after the holiday. Before the holiday, pay attention to macro - sentiment [130]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyester industry is currently experiencing inventory accumulation in the present but holds positive expectations. PTA shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, MEG may see a weak improvement in the future, short - fiber has good inventory conditions and its absolute price is not pessimistic, and bottle - chip is expected to continue to outperform short - fiber [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PX - PX has been operating at a high load, and industry profits are gradually shifting downward. The PX - N spread has dropped from above $350/ton to around $300/ton. With the restart of some domestic plants, the domestic load is at a high of 90% with little expected decline. Asian load is 81.6%. In the first quarter, supply is abundant, and seasonal inventory accumulation is expected to increase. The PX - crude oil industry chain profit has generally declined, mainly due to the compression of PX - N [6]. PTA - Since January, PTA supply has not increased despite improved processing margins, with an operating rate fluctuating around 76% - 77%. Overall load is not high, and in the context of supply - demand reduction, the inventory accumulation range from January to February is expected to be 60 - 700,000 tons. The post - holiday maintenance intensity may be less than in previous years [7]. Polyester - In February, terminal weaving has declined significantly, and downstream industries are on holiday. Polyester factories have increased production cuts, with the start - up rate dropping to 78.2%, and the average start - up rate in February is expected to be 79% - 80%. Current chemical fiber factory inventory is at a relatively low level, and cash flow is slightly profitable. Attention should be paid to post - holiday resumption and downstream replenishment demand [8][12]. MEG - Currently, the domestic ethylene glycol operating load is around 76.2%. There is an obvious inventory accumulation expectation, and port inventory has risen to 854,000 tons. However, from March, the number of domestic and overseas maintenance projects will increase, and supply may improve weakly, with limited downward potential [10]. Short - fiber - Since late January, the short - fiber operating rate has dropped from a high of 98% to below 80%. Inventory is at a low level in the past year, and processing fees are around 900 - 1000 yuan/ton. Due to poor demand, short - fiber faces seasonal inventory accumulation [15]. Bottle - chip - Since mid - last year, due to low profits, factories have cut production, and the average load has been maintained at around 80%. With inventory reduction and improved processing fees, the current in - stock inventory has dropped to around 9.3 days, and the processing fee has reached a two - year high of 621 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to opportunities to protect processing fees at high prices [16]. Important Data - On February 10, the PX - N spread was $297/ton, and the PTA spot processing fee was 373 yuan/ton [21]. - On February 9, the ethylene glycol port inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 854,000 tons; at the end of January, MEG factory inventory was 348,000 tons; in early February, the MEG raw material inventory of polyester factories was 14.5 days [27]. - From January to December 2025, MEG imports were 7.7205 billion tons, a cumulative increase of 17.8% year - on - year [34]. - In the week of February 6, the polyester start - up rate was 78.2%, and the Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate was 5% [39]. - In December 2025, textile and clothing exports were $25.992 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 7.4% and a month - on - month increase of 8.9%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative retail sales of textile, clothing, shoes, hats, and knitted products in China were 152.146 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom, and a backwardation spread strategy is recommended. PTA's downside space may be limited, and a short position is recommended when the processing fee is above 450. MEG has increasing inventory and large supply pressure, and a reverse basis and spread strategy is recommended [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday's closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC were 7290, 5192, 3739, 6606, and 464.2 respectively. Their price changes were 28, 26, - 4, 28, and - 5.6, with percentage changes of 0.39%, 0.50%, - 0.11%, 0.43%, and - 1.19% respectively. The month - spreads of PX5 - 9, PTA5 - 9, MEG5 - 9, PF3 - 4, and SC2 - 3 were 16, 8, - 110, - 80, and 0.1 respectively [4] - Yesterday's spot prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent were 900.33 dollars/ton, 5108 yuan/ton, 3635 yuan/ton, 597.88 dollars/ton, and 72.11 dollars/barrel respectively. The price changes were 2.33, 18, 5, - 4.75, and 0.7 respectively [4] - Yesterday's spot processing fees of PX - naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short - fiber processing fee, bottle - chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude oil spread were 294.05, 378.86, 71.28, 294.17, and - 4.34 respectively. The changes were 5.96, - 49.15, 29.19, 70.13, and 0 respectively [4] Fundamental Data - MEG: The inventory in some major ports in East China is about 93.5 tons, an increase of 3.8 tons from the previous period. From February 2nd to February 8th, the average daily shipment of a mainstream warehouse in Zhangjiagang was about 5400 tons, and that of two mainstream warehouses in Taicang was about 5500 - 6000 tons [5] - PX: The naphtha price was stalemate at the end of the session. A 4 - month Asian spot was traded at 902 dollars/ton, and PX closed at 900 dollars/ton CFR, a 2 - dollar increase from last Friday [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensities of PX, PTA, and MEG are all 0, indicating a neutral trend [6] PX Analysis - PX is in a pre - holiday range - bound market with support at the bottom. The month - spread is in backwardation. In February, the supply - demand pattern of upstream products in the industrial chain is weakening. This week, the PX operating rate rose to 89.5% (+0.3%), and the Asian operating rate is 82.4% (+0.8%). The PTA operating rate remained at 77.6% (+1%). The PXN processing fee was compressed to 288 dollars/ton, and short PTA processing fees above 450 [6] PTA Analysis - PTA's downside space may be limited, and the month - spread is bearish. Short PTA processing fees above 450. In January, textile domestic sales ended, and foreign trade had orders. The polyester operating rate is expected to be 80.5% in February and 91% in March. The PTA operating rate remained at 77.6%. A 250 - ton device of Xin Fengming will be overhauled in February, and pay attention to the 5100 - yuan/ton support [7] MEG Analysis - MEG inventory continues to rise, and the supply pressure is large. Use a reverse basis and spread strategy. This week, the device operating rate rose to 76.22% (+1.85%). Many overseas devices will be overhauled in March, and the import volume is decreasing. However, due to the large - scale shutdown of polyester on the demand side, the inventory accumulation pressure in February is large, and the post - holiday inventory digestion is difficult [8]