成本拖累与终端韧性开工博弈，聚酯链震荡格局 通惠期货研发部 李英杰 从业编号：F03115367 投资咨询：Z0019145 手机：18516056442 liyingjie@thqh.com.cn www.thqh.com.cn 一、日度市场总结 1. PTA&PX 11月24日，PX 主力合约收6772.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.33%，基差 为-229.0元/吨。PTA 主力合约收4680.0元/吨，较前一交易日收涨0.3%， 基差为-60.0元/吨。 成本端，11月24日，布油主力合约收盘62.51美元/桶。WTI收57.98美元/ 桶。需求端，11月24日，轻纺城成交总量为642.0万米，15 日平均成交为 693.8万米。 供给端 ： 潜在装置检修或开工率偏低，将加剧供给趋紧，PTA供给端依赖PX输入，PX 成本攀升将直接传导至PTA加工环节，若PTA装置开工率维持高位缺乏新增 产能释放，PTA成本支撑可能强化，未来价格或震荡偏强。 需求端 ： 轻纺城成交量显著低于15日平均水平终端纺织消费萎缩，聚酯开工率可能 因此承压走低，涤纶需求减弱将直接抑制PTA采购意愿。在PX需求端，作为 PTA上游 ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：上方空间有限，多MEG空PX对冲 | 供应 | 周内中化泉州装置短停后重启，国产开工率89.5%（+2.7%），12月初按计划检修。韩国GS在甲苯歧化利润较差的情况下选择在12月份择机停 车；另外市场关注中日关系紧张未来PX供应受到影响，继续推涨PX（中国每月从日本进口13万吨PX）。亚洲PX开工率79.7%（+1.2%）。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | PTA开工率继续下滑至72%（-3.7%）。虹港250万吨停车，下周重启；逸盛220万吨装延长检修时间，周度产量141万吨左右。 | | 观点 | 估值高位，多单离场。逢高空PXN，多MEG空PX。当前PX估值计价中日关系、韩国装置歧化降负荷、汽油偏紧芳烃调油需求走强。 | | 估值 | PXN259美元/吨(+3)。PX- ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/11/20 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/11/18 2025/11/19 | | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 458. 8 | 464.5 | 5. 70 | 成交情况: PTA:担忧PX供应减少,且华东220万吨PTA装置检修时 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | | | | 间延长,PTA行情上涨,现货基差走强,下游聚酯产销 | | SC | | 1335.9 | 1336. 4 | 0. 58 | 般。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4007 | 1. 3959 | -0. 0047 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 827 | 832 | 5 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 256 | 264 | ...

货 金 聚酯板块系列专题报告 张永鸽 期货从业证号：F0282934 投资咨询证号: Z0011351 融 研 究 院 ——基础知识篇 弘 业 期 01丨PTA基础知识 02丨MEG基础知识 03丨下游聚酯基础知识 PTA基础知识 什么是PTA 弘 业 期 货 金 融 Ø PTA在2006年12月登陆我国期货市场，是国内上市的第一个化工期货品种，也是脉络复杂的化工产业链中相对简单的一个品种。 研 究 院 Ø PTA是精对苯二甲酸的英文简称，在常温下是白色粉状晶体，无毒、无味、易燃，是下游产品聚酯的原料之一，终端需求主要 是纺织服装、软饮料。 数据来源：公开资料、弘业金融研究院 PTA的仓储和运输 PTA主流的存储是用包装袋打包，囤放在华东主港码头，PTA的仓 储地分布在长江沿岸（江苏段）、杭州湾和福建厦门等主流消费 地。因PTA主流的工厂在大连和宁波地区，一般PTA是走海运到长 江转口内河水路运输，运输成本相对便宜，部分上下游距离较近 企业汽运也有。 弘 业 期 货 金 小于150公里，槽罐 PTA 车运输，约30吨 江浙地区中长途运输 采用运河船舶单船载 重500-700吨 船舶，5000吨- 15000吨 ...

ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 从业资格号:F3066728 | 2025/11/17 | | | 指标 | | 2025/11/13 2025/11/14 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 449.5 | 457. 4 | 7.90 | 成交情况: PTA:原油价格反弹,成本支撑增强,且印度bis取 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1433. 4 | 1376.0 | -57. 41 | 消,利好未来PTA出口,今日PTA行情上涨。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 4388 | 1. 4140 | -0. 0249 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 826 | 832 | 6 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 242 | 263 | 21 | | | | PTA主力期价(元/吨) | 4700 | 4700 | 0.0 | | | | PTA现货价格 ...

近期，聚酯产业链整体表现偏强，与市场预期高度契合。这波行情的背后，是宏观氛围回暖、成本支撑 稳固与基本面稳健共振所致。11月13日瓶片期货成交放量成为市场情绪显著好转的有力佐证。 "聚酯产业链自10月下旬以来的持续走强，成本端的稳固支撑尤为关键。"中信建投期货高级分析师李思 进表示，国际油价企稳为产业链奠定了基础，而PTA龙头企业协同减产，有效提振了行业"反内卷"情 绪。其中PX表现格外突出，因其新增产能需等到2026年三季度后才会释放，供应偏紧的预期十分强 烈。同时，近期汽油裂解价差走强，海外调油需求初现启动迹象，进一步巩固了PX价格上涨的根基。 委内瑞拉与尼日利亚的地缘政治风险，更给原油价格带来上行动力，这种成本传导效应正持续作用于聚 酯产业链。 供需与宏观面改善则为行情"添薪加柴"。终端订单回暖，叠加中美贸易关系缓和，让市场对年底外贸订 单量增长充满期待。 浙商期货高级分析师朱立航补充说，经历前期长时间下跌后，聚酯产业链整体利润已处于偏低水平，而 新凤鸣新装置投产后，上游在相当长一段时间内无新增产能，叠加季节性淡季中聚酯需求表现强于预 期，多重因素共同推动聚酯链商品价格集体走强。 细分品种中，PTA价格 ...

聚酯数据周报 国泰君安期货研究所·贺晓勤（高级分析师），钱嘉寅（联系人） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 期货从业资格号：F03124480 日期：2025年11月16日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 本周PX观点总结：偏强震荡市 | 供应 | 调油需求支撑成本走强，单边趋势偏强，多PX空纯苯/MEG/PTA。月差正套。供应方面，中国福佳大化年底另一条70万吨装置扩能至100万吨， 泰国PTT 77万吨及沙特SATORP 70万吨PX装置10月底停车检修，预计持续40-55天，其余装置稳定。 | | --- | --- | | 需求 | PTA能投100万吨按计划停车，中泰120万吨提负至9成，PTA负荷调整至75.7%（-0.7%），下周虹港石化250万吨检修，宁波逸盛220万吨计 划下旬检修。后续负荷维持低位，累库压力或有所缓解，12月份多套装置重启，春节期间聚酯开工边际下降，PTA继续进入累库格局。 | | 观点 | 当前调油仍然是主要PX市场的矛盾。汽油裂解价差逆市上涨带动芳烃MX 甲苯需求 ，韩国 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: Gasoline supply contraction leads to an expansion of gasoline profits, indirectly supporting PX prices. Russian crude oil supply has decreased due to sanctions, and the profit expansion of diesel and other products prompts refineries to prioritize the production of gasoline and diesel. PTA supply has slightly contracted, polyester production is stable, and polyester load remains above 90%. Domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Tight PX supply has widened the spread between PX and naphtha, while PTA processing fees have been compressed to below 200. Although the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October" have ended, export demand may improve under the easing of the China - US trade war. Recently, downstream weaving has performed well, and the current peak season is expected to last until November [2]. - Ethylene Glycol: The inventory of ethylene glycol ports in East China has increased significantly compared to last week, with an increase of 120,000 tons. The ethylene price cannot support the strengthening of the ethylene glycol price. New device commissions have continuously pressured the ethylene glycol price, and the spot tightness caused by low inventory is mainly reflected in the basis. The increase in coal prices has not provided stronger cost support for ethylene glycol, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol has been repaired. The China - US trade negotiation has been reached, and the reduction of tariffs may increase the subsequent export demand for textile and clothing, and the downstream weaving load may remain optimistic [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs a. Market Data - INE crude oil price decreased from 461.8 yuan/barrel on November 10, 2025, to 458.8 yuan/barrel on November 11, 2025, a decrease of 3.00 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC decreased from 1348.1 yuan/ton to 1313.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34.20 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio decreased from 1.4017 to 1.3941, a decrease of 0.0076 [2]. - CFR China PX decreased from 828 to 821, a decrease of 7; PX - naphtha spread decreased from 246 to 239, a decrease of 8 [2]. - PTA主力期价 decreased from 4704 yuan/ton to 4648 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 decreased from 4605 yuan/ton to 4600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.0 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA现货加工费 increased from 175.8 yuan/ton to 192.6 yuan/ton, an increase of 16.8 yuan/ton; PTA盘面加工费 decreased from 274.8 yuan/ton to 255.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.2 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG主力期价 decreased from 3953 yuan/ton to 3875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 78.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha decreased from (149.62) yuan/ton to (149.81) yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG内盘 decreased from 4003 yuan/ton to 3981 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.0 yuan/ton [2]. b. Industry Chain Operating Rates - PX开工率 remained at 88.03%, PTA开工率 remained at 76.31%, MEG开工率 remained at 63.74%, and polyester负荷 remained at 89.70% [2]. c. Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - POY150D/48F increased from 6555 to 6600, an increase of 45.0; POY现金流 increased from 27 to 83, an increase of 56.0 [2]. - FDY150D/96F increased from 6770 to 6805, an increase of 35.0; FDY现金流 increased from (258) to (212), an increase of 46.0 [2]. - DTY150D/48F increased from 7840 to 7860, an increase of 20.0; DTY现金流 increased from 112 to 143, an increase of 31.0 [2]. - 1.4D直纺涤短 decreased from 6415 to 6365, a decrease of 50; 涤短现金流 decreased from 237 to 198, a decrease of 39.0 [2]. - 半光切片 remained at 5595; 切片现金流 increased from (33) to (22), an increase of 11.0 [2]. d. Product Sales - 长丝产销 increased from 50% to 54%, an increase of 4% [2]. - 短纤产销 decreased from 66% to 41%, a decrease of 25% [2]. - 切片产销 decreased from 82% to 51%, a decrease of 31% [2]. e. Device Maintenance An East - China PTA device with a capacity of 2.2 million tons has slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PX market rose due to rumors of potential maintenance of an East - China PX plant at the beginning of next year, pushing up the PTA price. Although the PTA processing fee was compressed again, the polyester start - up was stable, the polyester load remained above 90%, and domestic polyester exports were still optimistic. The current peak season is expected to last until November. For ethylene glycol, low port inventory and expected decline in overseas imports are offset by new device production pressure, and the coal price increase has not provided strong cost support [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil price decreased from 463.7 yuan/barrel on November 5, 2025, to 460.4 yuan/barrel on November 6, 2025, a decrease of 3.3 yuan/barrel [3]. - **PTA**: PTA - SC increased by 111.98 yuan/ton, PTA/SC ratio increased by 0.0361. PTA主力期价 rose from 4600 yuan/ton to 4688 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose from 4505 yuan/ton to 4540 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee decreased by 41.3 yuan/ton, while the disk processing fee increased by 36.7 yuan/ton. The PTA warehouse receipt quantity increased by 5909 [3]. - **PX**: CFR China PX price increased from 816 to 826, and the PX - naphtha spread increased by 9 [3]. - **MEG**: MEG主力期价 rose from 3914 yuan/ton to 3924 yuan/ton. The MEG - naphtha spread remained unchanged. The MEG domestic price decreased by 2 yuan/ton, and the main basis increased by 3 [3]. Industry Chain Start - up - PX, PTA, MEG start - up rates and polyester load all remained unchanged at 86.21%, 77.84%, 63.74%, and 89.56% respectively [3]. Product Price and Cash Flow - **Polyester Filament**: POY150D/48F price remained unchanged, and its cash flow decreased by 29. FDY150D/96F price remained unchanged, and its cash flow decreased by 29. DTY150D/48F price increased by 5, and its cash flow decreased by 24. The long - filament sales rate increased from 52% to 70% [3]. - **Polyester Staple Fiber**: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price increased by 15, and its cash flow decreased by 14. The short - fiber sales rate increased from 38% to 70% [3]. - **Polyester Chip**: Semi - bright chip price increased by 5, and its cash flow decreased by 24. The chip sales rate increased from 46% to 143% [3]. Device Maintenance - An East - China 2.2 million - ton PTA device slightly reduced its load, and the recovery time is to be tracked [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, with supply surplus, weak demand, and no new intensification in geopolitical situations, international crude oil is expected to run weakly. For PX, its load has recovered to a relatively high level, and with few maintenance plans in the fourth quarter, the rebound space for the PX - naphtha spread is limited [6]. - For PTA, multiple plants have maintenance expectations, so the supply is expected to decrease month - on - month. Although there are expectations for new polyester plant launches, demand will gradually decline after the traditional peak season, and polyester monthly output will decline. With the weak outlook for crude oil, the seasonal weakness of PTA in the distant end is hard to change, and it is expected to continue the range - bound pattern in November [6]. - For ethylene glycol (MEG), with the weakness of international crude oil, the supply - demand situation is expected to lead to inventory accumulation. However, the inventory at the main ports is at a low level, so MEG may continue to be under pressure, and the industry will continue the high - level hedging strategy [6]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Upstream Industry Chain Analysis - **1.1 Market Review**: In October, although the oil price dropped and cost support was weak, the downstream demand for PX showed a slight improvement. Terminal inventory - building enthusiasm increased, and the downstream was in the destocking stage. Coupled with the relatively low PX - naphtha spread at the end of September, the PX price rose slightly compared to the end of September. As of October 31, the closing price of Asian PX was 820.33 US dollars/ton CFR China, up 12 US dollars/ton from September 30, with a decline rate of 1.42% [12]. - **1.2 Maintenance and Restart**: In October, the Fuguidaohua 1.4 - million - ton plant was under maintenance, and the Urumqi Petrochemical was under maintenance for about half a month. The PX industry's operating load reached 90.1%, a month - on - month increase of 4% [15]. - **1.3 Demand and Spread**: As of October 31, the PX - naphtha spread reached 239.8 US dollars/ton, up 22.75 US dollars/ton from September 30. With the continuous destocking of downstream PTA, good polyester sales, reduced inventory, and enhanced terminal restocking enthusiasm, the PX - naphtha spread was significantly repaired [18]. 2. PTA Fundamental Analysis - **2.1 Market Review**: Drag from both cost and supply - demand factors led to a downward shift in the PTA price center. In the second half of the month, positive signals from the China - US economic and trade talks repaired market expectations for demand prospects, boosting market sentiment and causing the price to rebound from a low level. As of October 31, the PTA spot price was 4,510 yuan/ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 71 [19]. - **2.2 Capacity Utilization**: In October, the PTA capacity utilization rate was 77.02%, a month - on - month increase of 1.63% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.77%. In November, plants such as Dushan Energy, Honggang Petrochemical, Sichuan Energy Investment, Ineos, Yisheng Ningbo, and Hengli Petrochemical have maintenance plans, and PTA monthly output is expected to decline [23]. - **2.3 Processing Fee**: In October, new plants were under trial operation, and previously maintained plants restarted. The destocking amplitude of supply - demand decreased, and terminal performance was below expectations, causing the PTA processing fee to continue to weaken. The average monthly PTA processing fee in October was 145.39 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.06% [28]. - **2.4 Supply - Demand Inventory**: In November, with the expected significant increase in supply from new PTA plants, and with plants under maintenance and restarting, and little change in demand, PTA supply - demand is expected to shift to inventory accumulation [29]. 3. MEG Fundamental Analysis - **3.1 Market Review**: In October, the sharp decline in international oil prices dragged down the cost of ethylene glycol. Maintenance enterprises restarted one after another, and new production capacity was released. With stable imports, the overall supply increased significantly. Terminal orders were mediocre, and downstream polyester inventory remained high. The East China spot price dropped below 4,100 yuan/ton from 4,214 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and then rebounded slightly to around 4,150 yuan/ton at the end of the month. As of October 31, the closing price of MEG in Zhangjiagang was 4,111 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,210 yuan/ton [34]. - **3.2 Production Capacity Utilization**: In October, the domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was about 66.82%. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of non - coal - based ethylene glycol was about 65.28%, and that of coal - based ethylene glycol was about 69.42% [35]. - **3.3 Port Inventory**: As of October 30, the total MEG inventory in the main ports of East China was 49.9 tons, an increase of 3.4 tons from October 27. As of November 6, 2025, the total expected arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China is 15 tons, including 6 tons in Zhangjiagang, 5 tons in Taicang, 2 tons in Ningbo, and 1.9 tons in Jiangyin [41]. - **3.4 Processing Profit**: With the increase in international oil prices, the cost - end support moved up. The domestic supply decreased briefly, and downstream polyester demand was stable. However, the supply - demand fundamentals were expected to be weak, and the ethylene glycol price fluctuated and consolidated. Currently, the sample profits of each process remain in a loss state. As of October 30, the naphtha profit dropped to - 116.86 US dollars/ton, and the integrated plants were still in a loss state, while the profits of other processes also maintained varying degrees of losses [44]. 4. Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industry Chain - **4.1 Polyester Output**: In October, polyester output was 6.87 million tons, slightly higher than expected. The polyester production capacity base increased to 87.635 million tons, and the polyester capacity utilization rate was about 87.66%, also a slight increase compared to September [47]. - **4.2 Polyester Load**: In November, there are expectations for new plant launches, but as the traditional peak season ends, demand will gradually decline, and polyester monthly output will decline [49]. - **4.3 Polyester Product Inventory**: At the end of the month, downstream continued to replenish inventory, and the overall sales of polyester products increased. The finished - product inventory of polyester factories decreased in the latter part of the month [52]. - **4.4 Polyester Cash Flow**: With the increase in polymerization costs and limited increases in polyester filament prices, the cash flow of most models was compressed [57]. - **4.5 Weaving Industry**: As of October 30, the operating load of the weaving industry was 69%, a month - on - month increase of 2.55%. The average number of days for terminal weaving orders was 17.86 days, an increase of 2.18 days from the previous week. As the temperature drops, the market mainly focuses on winter orders for Double Eleven, but the export volume of stretch yarns has declined. Most manufacturers are cautious about November demand and are currently focusing on inventory digestion. If terminal orders cannot continue to increase, manufacturers may still reduce production to avoid risks [60].