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化工日报:压力位难突破,市场氛围回落-20250828
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 05:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term PX/PTA has difficulty breaking through the resistance level, and the market sentiment has declined due to the retracement of crude oil and the stock market. Attention should be paid to the situation of Shenghong and Zhejiang Petrochemical's devices [1] - The cost - end crude oil price has declined significantly, affected by the U.S. tax increase on India and the unexpected inventory accumulation in the U.S. The PX fundamentals have weakened marginally, but the low inventory provides support for PXN. The PTA supply - demand situation has improved, and the balance sheet will shift from a loose balance to significant de - stocking in September. The demand side is gradually warming up [2] - The polyester开工率 is 90.0% (month - on - month increase of 0.6%), showing signs of recovery. The inventory of filament factories has decreased, and the efficiency has gradually improved. The demand for PF has improved slightly, and the overall supply - demand situation has improved. The fundamentals of PR have changed little, and the processing fee is expected to be repaired [3] - For the unilateral strategy, maintain a neutral view on PX/PTA/PF/PR. For the cross - variety strategy, go long on PF processing fees at low prices. There is no cross - period strategy [4] 3. Summary by Directory I. Price and Basis - Include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber basis [9][10][13] II. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Cover PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [16][19] III. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Involve toluene U.S. - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [23][24] IV. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Include China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asian PX load [26][29][31] V. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Comprise PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [34][37][38] VI. Downstream Polyester Load - Include filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang printing and dyeing start - up rate, and filament profit [45][47][56] VII. PF Detailed Data - Cover 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [66][75][79] VIII. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, East China water bottle - chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle - chip spread, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [83][85][93]