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纯苯、苯乙烯日报:纯苯进口量超预期,仍将弱势震荡,苯乙烯或跟跌-20251111
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-11-11 07:03
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: Pure benzene remains in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the absolute valuation is low, there is no fundamental support for a reversal. The short - term price has an emotional rebound driven by the overall recovery of the chemical sector, but the sustainability needs verification. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the future, and attention should be paid to changes in import rhythm and the recovery rhythm of downstream loads [2]. - **Styrene**: There are no significant short - term supply - demand contradictions for styrene, and the profit remains in a neutral range with a stable and slightly strong price performance. The current market sentiment is boosted by the rebound of the chemical ETF, but the fundamental improvement is limited, and the short - term market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of devices in December and the progress of downstream inventory reduction [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On November 10, the styrene main contract closed down 0.03% at 6315 yuan/ton with a basis of - 10 (- 18 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed flat at 5422 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5300 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Cost**: On November 10, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 59.8 dollars/barrel (+ 0.3 dollars/barrel), and the WTI crude oil main contract closed at 63.6 dollars/barrel (+ 0.3 dollars/barrel) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 17.9 tons (- 1.4 tons), a 7.1% month - on - month decrease. Pure benzene port inventory was 12.1 tons (+ 3.6 tons), a 42.4% month - on - month increase [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production and supply fluctuated slightly month - on - month. The weekly styrene output was 33.3 tons (+ 1 ton), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 66.9% (+ 0.2%) [2]. - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S has recovered. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 53.9% (- 8.3%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 71.6% (- 0.5%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 53.5% (+ 1.5%) [2]. Industry News - The threat of a 100% tariff on China by Trump has been cancelled; China is expected to resume "substantial" purchases of US soybeans; Beijing will postpone the implementation of rare - earth export controls for one year and re - examine the plan [8]. - The US inflation data in September was lower than expected, enhancing the prospect of the Fed's interest - rate cut [8]. - On the early morning of October 30, the Fed held an interest - rate meeting, and the upper limit of the interest rate was adjusted to 4% as expected [8]. Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: Data shows the prices and price changes of styrene and pure benzene in different regions and forms from November 7 to 10, 2025, including futures, spot, and spreads, as well as the prices of upstream Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha [5]. - **Output and Inventory**: From October 31 to November 7, 2025, the output of styrene in China increased from 32.3 tons to 33.3 tons (a 2.94% increase), and the output of pure benzene increased from 42.9 tons to 43.8 tons (a 2.08% increase). Styrene port and factory inventories decreased, while pure benzene port inventory increased significantly [6]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rates of pure benzene and styrene downstream products from October 31 to November 7, 2025, are presented, showing different changes in the utilization rates of various products such as styrene, EPS, ABS, etc. [7]