- The report focuses on the allocation of Northbound funds in the banking sector for Q2 2025, highlighting that the total market value of A-shares held by Northbound funds is approximately 2.29 trillion yuan, an increase of about 53.178 billion yuan compared to Q1 2025[2][4][14] - Northbound funds are underweight in the banking sector relative to the CSI 300 Index, with a configuration ratio of about 11.09% in banks compared to 15.71% in the CSI 300, resulting in an underweight of approximately 4.62%[2][4][16] - After stripping out the impact of industry price changes from Q1 to Q2 2025, the net inflow of Northbound funds into secondary banking sectors was calculated, showing that the most held were joint-stock banks, followed by state-owned banks, with the highest net inflow into city commercial banks[4][19][20] - The top five secondary industries with the highest net inflows of Northbound funds in Q2 2025 were semiconductors, securities and futures, new energy vehicle equipment, pharmaceuticals, and communication equipment[5][20][22] - Conversely, the top five secondary industries with the highest net outflows were home appliances, liquor, components and parts, industrial control and automation, and display devices[5][22][24] - The report concludes that Northbound funds did not show a significant trend of chasing high-performing industries during Q2 2025[5][26][27]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened. Both nominal and real yields on 10-year US Treasuries rose, indicating a rebound in inflation expectations [1][6] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally tightened, while the domestic interbank funding situation remained overall balanced, with a slight widening of the yield spread between 10-year and 1-year bonds [1][6] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading heat has decreased, with most major indices experiencing a decline in volatility. Sectors such as light industry, military industry, textile and apparel, chemicals, retail, machinery, computers, pharmaceuticals, steel, and telecommunications are all above the 80th percentile in trading heat [2][6] - The liquidity indicators in the market have also receded, with the non-ferrous metals sector's liquidity indicators above the 50th historical percentile [2][11] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have adjusted the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, with sectors such as steel, retail, machinery, electric power, media, non-ferrous metals, and utilities seeing upward revisions [2][4] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025/2026 has increased, while the proportion of stocks with downward revisions has decreased [4][16] - The net profit forecasts for the ChiNext Index and the SSE 50 have been raised, while those for the CSI 300 have been lowered. The CSI 500's forecasts have seen mixed adjustments [4][16] Northbound Trading - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with an overall net sell-off of A-shares. The average daily trading volume for northbound trading has also declined [3][5] - Northbound funds have primarily net bought sectors such as electric power and utilities, and electronics, while net selling occurred in sectors like computers, media, food and beverage, agriculture, and home appliances [3][5] Margin Financing - Margin financing activity has slightly decreased but remains at a high point since late March 2025. The net buying in margin financing was 12.607 billion yuan, with significant net purchases in sectors like electronics, military, chemicals, and electric power [4][6] - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, real estate, telecommunications, and military has increased, with non-ferrous metals and telecommunications above the 50th historical percentile [4][8] Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have decreased, with overall net redemptions in ETFs, primarily from institutional ETFs. Active equity funds have increased positions in sectors like military, telecommunications, computers, and pharmaceuticals, while reducing positions in agriculture, retail, and consumer services [4][8] - Newly established equity funds have seen a significant decline in scale, with both active and passive equity fund sizes decreasing [4][8]

天风策略 谁在卖？20250514 北上资金在 2025 年的表现如何？ 2025 年公募基金市场的表现如何？ 2025 年开始，新成立的偏股型基金份额每月逐步增长。4 月份新成立的偏股型 基金份额达到 571 亿份，相较上个月的 500 亿份有所增加，处于近三年以来 的 95%分位数。主动型偏股型基金在 4 月份新增 74 亿份，存量产品自 3 月份 以来净申购 1,551 亿份，总份额环比上升 1,500 亿份。4 月份存量股票型 ETF 净申购额为 1973 亿元，较上月增加 2,300 多亿元。沪深 300 和中证 1,000 等宽基类 ETF 成为资金主要流入方向，主动型产品权益仓位继续上升。 私募基金在 2025 年的表现如何？ 2025 年 3 月私募基金规模达到五万多亿元，但仓位出现一定程度回落。 • 4 月产业资本净减值 3.7 亿元，增减持接近持平，减持规模收窄。预计 5 月和 6 月解禁规模分别为 1,100 亿元和 2,475 亿元，电子、机械设备及计 算机行业解禁压力较大。 • 三大资金主体指标值为负的 0.15，处于 2018 年底以来 26.6%的分位数 位置，交易热度降温反映市 ...

资金跟踪系列之一百六十七 [Table_Author] | 分析师 | 牟一凌 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书： S0100521120002 | | | 邮箱： | mouyiling@mszq.com | | 分析师 | 梅锴 | | 执业证书： S0100522070001 | | | 邮箱： | meikai@mszq.com | | 研究助理 季宏坤 | | | 执业证书： S0100124070013 | | | 邮箱： | jihongkun@mszq.com | 北上继续回流，个人活跃度季节性回落 2025 年 05 月 06 日 ➢ 宏观流动性：上周(20250428-20250430)美元指数继续回升，中美利差"倒 挂"程度有所加深。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均上升，通胀预期不变。对于海外而 言，流动性边际有所宽松(3 个月日元与美元互换基差回升)。对于国内而言，银 行间资金面整体宽松，期限利差(10Y-1Y)继续收窄。 ➢ 交易热度、波动与流动性：市场交易热度略回落，波动率有所回升。行业上， 商贸零售、纺服、消费者服务、房地产、电力及公用事业、轻工、化工、机械、 银行等交易 ...

资金跟踪系列之一百六十六 北上回流，ETF 流出，个人活跃度呈现低位回升迹象 2025 年 04 月 28 日 ➢ 宏观流动性：上周(20250421-20250425)美元指数有所回升，中美利差"倒 挂"程度有所收敛。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均下降，通胀预期回升。对于海外而 言，流动性边际有所宽松(3 个月日元与美元互换基差回升)。对于国内而言，银 行间资金面整体宽松，期限利差(10Y-1Y)继续收窄。 相关研究 ➢ 交易热度、波动与流动性：市场交易热度有所回升，除上证 50 外，其余主 要指数波动率均回落。行业上，商贸零售、消费者服务、房地产、纺服、化工、 轻工、机械等板块交易热度均处于 80%分位数以上，计算机、通信、传媒的波动 率仍处于 80%分位数以上。 ➢ 机构调研：电子、计算机、医药、家电、食品饮料、银行等板块调研热度居 前，农林牧渔、食品饮料、有色、家电、石油石化、电子等板块调研热度在上升。 ➢ 分析师预测：全 A 的 25/26 年净利润预测被继续下调。行业上，农林牧渔、 金融、电子、汽车等板块 25/26 年净利润预测均被上调。指数上，创业板指、中 证 500、沪深 300 的 25/2 ...

"聪明钱" 隐身了 不赌电动车，日本三大车企利润新高 被追逐的公用事业公司 关注《晚点财经》并设为星标，第一时间获取每日商业精华。 "聪明钱" 隐身了 对于一些每天都要交易那么几次的股市投机者来说，一个曾经重要的信号被藏起了。 5 月 13 日起，港交所不再披露北上资金实时成交额和实时可用余额。余额低于 30% 时实时公布可用 余额、否则显示 "可用"。当时成交额会在收盘后公布。 十年前，沪港通（全称 "沪港股票市场交易互联互通机制"）开通。那两年后，深港通启动。"通" 就 像 "通道"，意味着在不打破中国资本管制的情况下，外资能投资中国的东西了、中国的资本也可以 买港股了。 通过沪港通和深港通流入中国内地股市的资金叫做 "北上资金"，它一度被称为 "聪明钱" —— 因为港 资和其他外资市场的成熟度往往高于 A 股市场，交易员认为北上资金对市场有一定领先性，散户、 机构资金也会跟踪北向动向 —— 跟踪的方式是观测北上资金的实时交易、余额和持仓。 这些资金包括欧美资金、港资，以及中资机构的境外资金。这一机制让资金更方便地投资 A 股，不 需要像 QFII （合格境外投资者）一样是金融机构或者持有数百万人民币的个 ...