宏观流动性： 上周美元指数回升，中美利差"倒挂"程度有所收敛。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回落，通胀预期回落。离岸美元流动 性有所收紧，国内银行间资金面均衡，期限利差(10Y-1Y)走阔。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度有所回落，除科创 50 外，其余主要指数的波动率回升。行业上，化工、纺服、房地产、消费者服务、商 贸零售、轻工等板块交易热度在 80%分位数以上，电新、电子的波动率处于 80%历史分位数以上。 机构调研： 电子、医药、电新、机械、有色等板块调研热度居前，石油石化、房地产、非银等板块的调研热度环比仍在上升。 分析师预测： 全 A 的 25/26 年净利润预测同时被上调。行业上，金融地产、机械、军工、农林牧渔、钢铁等板块 25/26 年净利润预 测均被上调。指数上，中证 500、沪深 300 的 25/26 年净利润预测均被上调，创业板指、上证 50 则分别被下调/上调。 风格上，小盘成长、中盘价值的 25/26 年的净利润预测均被上调，小盘价值均被下调，中盘成长分别被上调/下调， 大盘成长/价值则分别被下调/上调。 北上活跃度回落，整体继续大幅净卖出 A 股 基于前 10 大活跃股口径， ...

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. Inflation expectations have decreased [1][12]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has generally loosened, while domestic interbank liquidity remains balanced and slightly loose [1][18]. Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with major indices also showing a decline in volatility. However, over half of the sectors still maintain trading activity above the 80th percentile [2][28]. - The volatility of major indices has decreased, while the volatility of the communication and electronics sectors remains above the 80th historical percentile [2][30]. Group 3: Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, non-ferrous metals, electric new energy, and food and beverage sectors have seen high research activity, with steel, electric new energy, media, textile and apparel, and construction sectors experiencing a rise in research activity [3][41]. Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted, with increases in the transportation, construction, non-bank financials, military, computer, and banking sectors [4][21]. - The net profit forecasts for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index for 2025 and 2026 have been raised, while the forecasts for the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices have been lowered [4][23]. Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with a slight net sell-off in A-shares. The trading volume ratio in sectors like electric new energy, home appliances, and computers has increased [5][32]. - Northbound trading has shown net buying in sectors such as electronics, machinery, and chemicals, while net selling has occurred in pharmaceuticals, food and beverages, and non-bank financials [5][33]. Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has significantly decreased to the lowest level since mid-August 2025, with a slight net buying of 6.736 billion yuan last week, primarily in electric new energy, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals [6][35]. - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors like steel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and petrochemicals has increased [6][38]. Group 7: Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have decreased, with net redemptions in ETFs, particularly among institutional ETFs. Active equity funds have mainly increased positions in non-ferrous metals, automobiles, and home appliances [8][45]. - The correlation of actively managed equity funds with large-cap growth and mid/small-cap value has increased, while the correlation with mid/small-cap growth and large-cap value has decreased [8][48].

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened, with inflation expectations declining [1][12] - Offshore dollar liquidity tightened overall, while the domestic interbank funding situation remained balanced [1][17] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with major indices' volatility also declining [2][31] - Trading heat in sectors such as electronics, automotive, consumer services, real estate, textiles, and communications remains above the 80th percentile [2][24] - The volatility of the communication sector remains above the 80th historical percentile [2][31] Institutional Research - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, communications, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverages, with mechanical, transportation, banking, and consumer services sectors seeing a month-on-month increase in research heat [3][42] Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have adjusted net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026, with increases in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, consumer services, chemicals, machinery, and automotive [4][49] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 has increased [4][49] - The net profit forecasts for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 indices for 2025 and 2026 have been raised, while the CSI 500 index has seen downward adjustments [4][49] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing to show net selling but at a slower pace [5][31] - In the top 10 active stocks, the ratio of buy/sell totals in sectors like electronics, electric vehicles, and automotive has increased, while it has decreased in non-bank, pharmaceuticals, and non-ferrous sectors [5][31] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity is approaching the highest point since July 2020, with a net purchase of 26.48 billion yuan last week [6][35] - The main net purchases in margin financing were in electronics, communications, and electric vehicle sectors, while net sales were seen in non-ferrous metals, pharmaceuticals, and non-bank sectors [6][35] Active Equity Fund Positions - Active equity funds have reduced their positions, primarily increasing allocations in media, computing, and machinery sectors while decreasing in communications, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverages [8][45] - The correlation between active equity funds and mid/small-cap growth and small-cap value has increased [8][45] - New fund establishment sizes have decreased, with active funds seeing a rebound while passive funds have declined [8][50]

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened. The nominal and real yields of 10Y US Treasuries both rebounded, indicating a decline in inflation expectations [2][15] - Offshore dollar liquidity tightened overall, while the domestic interbank funding situation remained balanced, with the yield spread between 10Y and 1Y government bonds widening [2][15] Market Trading Activity - Market trading activity saw a significant rebound, with most industry trading heat above the 80th percentile. Sectors such as computers, machinery, pharmaceuticals, textiles, military, and communications showed trading heat in the top percentile [3][26] - The volatility of major indices increased, while most industry volatilities remained below the 60th percentile [3][33] - Market liquidity indicators slightly improved, but all sectors remained below the 70th historical percentile [3][38] Institutional Research - The sectors with the highest research activity included electronics, computers, communications, pharmaceuticals, and automobiles. The research heat in food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, building materials, machinery, and transportation sectors continued to rise [4][45] Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026 were adjusted, with increases in the steel, real estate, and communications sectors. The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 index were also raised, while those for the SSE 50 index were lowered [5][21] - The proportion of stocks with upward adjustments in net profit forecasts for 2025/2026 increased [5][17] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity rebounded significantly, with a notable net inflow into sectors such as electronics, computers, and machinery. Conversely, there was a net outflow from military, communications, and agriculture sectors [6][31] - The trading volume ratio for the top 10 active stocks showed an increase in non-bank, electric new energy, and machinery sectors [6][32] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity reached its highest point since November 2024, with a net purchase of 53.251 billion yuan, primarily in electronics, computers, and communications sectors [7][35] - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors like oil and petrochemicals, banking, and coal increased significantly [7][38] Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds continued to rise, with significant increases in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electric new energy, and non-ferrous metals. Conversely, reductions were seen in communications, home appliances, and computers [8][47] - The newly established equity fund scale decreased, with both actively and passively managed funds seeing a decline in new issuance [8][50] - ETFs experienced overall net redemptions, particularly in personal ETFs, while institutional ETFs saw net subscriptions [8][53][54]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed, with inflation expectations rising [1][13][21] - Offshore dollar liquidity has marginally eased, while domestic interbank liquidity remains overall loose, with the term spread (10Y-1Y) continuing to narrow [1][21][25] Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has increased, with trading heat in sectors such as retail, consumer services, real estate, textiles, chemicals, light industry, and machinery above the 80th percentile [2][28][29] - The volatility of major indices, except for the Shanghai Composite Index, has continued to decline, while sectors like computers, communications, and media remain above the 80th historical percentile in volatility [2][28][34] Group 3: Sector Research Activity - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, computers, pharmaceuticals, home appliances, food and beverages, and banking, with an upward trend in research heat for agriculture, food and beverages, non-ferrous metals, home appliances, petrochemicals, and electronics [3][43][44] Group 4: Profit Forecast Adjustments - Analysts have continued to lower net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026, while sectors like agriculture, finance, electronics, and automobiles have seen upward adjustments in their profit forecasts [2][51] - The proportion of upward adjustments in net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market has decreased, while the proportion of downward adjustments has increased [2][51] Group 5: Northbound Capital Activity - Northbound trading activity has continued to decline, with overall net buying of A-shares, particularly in sectors like power and utilities, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, electric new energy, pharmaceuticals, and machinery [3][5] - The average daily trading volume of northbound capital has decreased, and its proportion of total A-share trading volume has also declined [3][5] Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has slightly rebounded but remains at a low level since September 24, 2024, with net selling in sectors like non-bank financials, electric new energy, electronics, military industry, steel, and retail [3][6] - The proportion of margin financing in sectors such as finance, coal, communications, light industry, and computers has increased [3][6] Group 7: Fund Positioning - Actively managed equity funds have seen a continued decrease in positions, with net redemptions from investors, particularly in sectors like TMT, automobiles, non-ferrous metals, home appliances, finance, and consumer services [5][8] - New equity fund formations have increased, with a rise in the scale of newly established passive equity funds [5][8]