北上资金流向等
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资金跟踪系列之三十一:机构ETF延续大幅净赎回,北上转向净流出
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2026-02-02 08:56
Macroeconomic Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasuries rose and fell respectively, indicating a rebound in inflation expectations [1][15]. - Offshore dollar liquidity tightened marginally, while the domestic interbank funding remained balanced. The yield spread between 10Y and 1Y bonds narrowed [1][22]. Market Trading Activity, Volatility, and Liquidity - Market trading activity has rebounded, with trading heat in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, media, military industry, chemicals, and steel exceeding the 90th percentile [2][26]. - The volatility of major indices has increased, with the military sector's volatility reaching above the 80th percentile [2][33]. - Market liquidity indicators have improved, although all sectors remain below the 60th historical percentile [2][37]. Institutional Research - The banking, electronics, machinery, computing, and automotive sectors are leading in research activity, with a rising trend in research heat for banking, petrochemicals, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and building materials [3][44]. Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have raised net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2026/2027. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts has continued to increase [4][17]. - Specific sectors such as non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, retail, home appliances, and real estate have also seen upward adjustments in their 2026/2027 net profit forecasts [4][21]. - Major indices including the ChiNext Index, CSI 300, and SSE 50 have had their 2026/2027 net profit forecasts raised, while the CSI 500 saw a decrease in its forecasts [4][23]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has increased, although there has been a continued net sell-off of A-shares. The ratio of buy/sell totals in sectors like non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, and food and beverage has risen [5][31]. - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, there were significant net purchases in sectors such as food and beverage, electricity, and public utilities, while net sales were observed in computing, pharmaceuticals, and machinery [5][33]. Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has continued to decline, reaching its lowest level since mid-July 2025. The net purchases were mainly in non-ferrous metals, finance, and food and beverage sectors, while net sales were seen in electronics, military, and computing sectors [6][35]. Long-Short Trading Activity - Long-short trading activity has continued to rise, with sectors like non-ferrous metals, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and food and beverage showing relatively high trading volumes [7][41]. Active Equity Fund Positions - Active equity funds have increased their positions in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and electronics, while reducing positions in pharmaceuticals, media, and food and beverage sectors [8][46]. - The correlation between active equity funds and small-cap growth, as well as large/mid-cap value, has increased, while the correlation with large/mid-cap growth and small-cap value has decreased [8][48].