宏观流动性： 上周美元指数有所回升，中美利差"倒挂"程度有所加深。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回升，通胀预期回升。离岸美元 流动性边际宽松，国内银行间资金面均衡，期限利差(10Y-1Y)收窄。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度继续回升，主要指数波动率均回升。军工、纺服、轻工、商贸零售、消费者服务等板块的交易热度均处 于 80%分位数以上。通信、电新、电子、化工板块的波动率均依然处于 80%历史分位数以上。 机构调研： 基于前 10 大活跃股口径，北上在有色、军工、汽车等板块的买卖总额之比上升，在电子、通信、电新等板块回落。基 于北上持股数量小于 3000 万股的标的口径：北上主要净买入电子、军工、有色等板块，净卖出食品饮料、纺服等板 块。综合来看：北上可能主要净买入军工、有色、汽车、机械、非银等板块，净卖出食品饮料等板块。 两融活跃度有所回落，但仍处于 2025 年 11 月以来的相对高位 上周两融净卖出 22.73 亿元，行业上，主要净买入军工、电力及公用事业、传媒等板块，净卖出非银、通信、电子等 板块。电力及公用事业、家电、食品饮料等板块融资买入占比上升。风格上，两融仅净卖出中盘成长、大盘价值。 龙 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to decline, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has deepened. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasuries have both rebounded, indicating a rise in inflation expectations [1][14][18]. - Offshore US dollar liquidity remains marginally loose, while the domestic interbank funding environment is balanced and slightly loose. The yield spread between 10Y and 1Y government bonds continues to widen [1][20]. Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has continued to decline, with trading heat in sectors such as textiles, light industry, consumer services, and military industry remaining above the 80th percentile [2][26]. - The volatility of major indices has mostly continued to decrease, while the volatility in the communication, electric power, and electronics sectors remains above the 80th historical percentile [2][32]. Group 3: Institutional Research - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, machinery, electric power, and non-ferrous metals, with rising research interest in the automotive, electronics, and military sectors [3][42]. Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted, with increases in the real estate, steel, consumer services, light industry, and pharmaceutical sectors [4][21]. - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 300 index for 2025 and 2026 have been raised, while the forecasts for the SSE 50 have been lowered. The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices have been adjusted in opposite directions [4][23]. Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has continued to decline, with a net sell-off in A-shares. The ratio of buy and sell amounts in sectors such as communication, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials has increased, while it has decreased in electric power, automotive, and home appliance sectors [5][29]. - Northbound trading primarily net bought in the communication, military, and machinery sectors, while net selling occurred in the media, real estate, and electronics sectors [5][33]. Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has again declined, remaining at low levels since late July 2025. The net buying was mainly in the military, non-ferrous metals, and communication sectors, while net selling occurred in chemicals, electric power, and construction sectors [6][35]. - The trading heat in the "Dragon and Tiger List" has slightly decreased, with military, building materials, and light industry sectors showing relatively high trading amounts [6][41]. Group 7: Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to decline, with a slight net subscription in ETFs. Active equity funds have mainly increased positions in media, consumer services, and banking sectors, while reducing positions in non-ferrous metals, electronics, and automotive sectors [7][45]. - The newly established equity fund scale has continued to decline, with active funds seeing a rebound while passive funds have decreased. ETFs related to TMT, pharmaceuticals, and electric power sectors have been primarily net bought, while financial real estate, military, and chemical sectors have seen net selling [7][52][53].

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. The nominal and real interest rates of 10Y US Treasuries have both declined, indicating a drop in inflation expectations [1][13][19]. Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with volatility rising for most major indices. Over half of the sectors still maintain trading activity above the 80th percentile [2][25]. - Excluding the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 index, the volatility of other major indices has increased, with the volatility of the electric new energy and electronics sectors remaining above the 80th historical percentile [2][31]. Group 3: Institutional Research - The sectors with the highest research activity include electronics, pharmaceuticals, electric new energy, machinery, and non-ferrous metals, while the research activity in oil and petrochemicals, real estate, and non-bank financials has continued to rise [3][43]. Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Analysts have raised the net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts has increased across the board [4][50]. - Specific sectors such as financial real estate, machinery, military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and steel have also seen upward adjustments in their 2025/2026 net profit forecasts [4][50]. - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 and CSI 300 indices for 2025/2026 have been raised, while the forecasts for the ChiNext index and SSE 50 have been adjusted differently [4][50]. Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, continuing to show significant net selling of A-shares. The ratio of total buy and sell amounts in sectors like electric new energy, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals has increased, while it has decreased in electronics, communications, and home appliances [4][5]. Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - The activity of margin financing has significantly decreased, reaching the lowest point since late July 2025. The net selling has been concentrated in sectors like electronics, electric new energy, and non-ferrous metals, while media, military industry, and real estate have seen net buying [5][6]. Group 7: Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to decline, while ETFs have seen overall net subscriptions, primarily driven by institutional ETFs. Active equity funds have mainly increased their positions in non-ferrous metals, steel, and financial sectors, while reducing positions in TMT, military, and machinery sectors [6][8].

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. Inflation expectations have decreased [1][12]. - Offshore dollar liquidity has generally loosened, while domestic interbank liquidity remains balanced and slightly loose [1][18]. Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with major indices also showing a decline in volatility. However, over half of the sectors still maintain trading activity above the 80th percentile [2][28]. - The volatility of major indices has decreased, while the volatility of the communication and electronics sectors remains above the 80th historical percentile [2][30]. Group 3: Institutional Research - The electronic, pharmaceutical, non-ferrous metals, electric new energy, and food and beverage sectors have seen high research activity, with steel, electric new energy, media, textile and apparel, and construction sectors experiencing a rise in research activity [3][41]. Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - The net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted, with increases in the transportation, construction, non-bank financials, military, computer, and banking sectors [4][21]. - The net profit forecasts for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index for 2025 and 2026 have been raised, while the forecasts for the CSI 500 and ChiNext indices have been lowered [4][23]. Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with a slight net sell-off in A-shares. The trading volume ratio in sectors like electric new energy, home appliances, and computers has increased [5][32]. - Northbound trading has shown net buying in sectors such as electronics, machinery, and chemicals, while net selling has occurred in pharmaceuticals, food and beverages, and non-bank financials [5][33]. Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has significantly decreased to the lowest level since mid-August 2025, with a slight net buying of 6.736 billion yuan last week, primarily in electric new energy, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals [6][35]. - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors like steel, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and petrochemicals has increased [6][38]. Group 7: Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have decreased, with net redemptions in ETFs, particularly among institutional ETFs. Active equity funds have mainly increased positions in non-ferrous metals, automobiles, and home appliances [8][45]. - The correlation of actively managed equity funds with large-cap growth and mid/small-cap value has increased, while the correlation with mid/small-cap growth and large-cap value has decreased [8][48].

Group 1: Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index continued to rise, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread deepened, with inflation expectations increasing [1][14] - Offshore dollar liquidity has generally loosened, while the domestic interbank funding environment remains balanced and slightly loose [1][18] Group 2: Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has rebounded, with volatility in major indices, except for the Shenzhen 100, also increasing [2][25] - Trading activity in sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, electric new energy, chemicals, machinery, and real estate remains above the 80th percentile [2][25] - The volatility of major indices has mostly increased, with telecommunications and electronics remaining above the 80th historical percentile [2][31] Group 3: Institutional Research - Research activity is high in sectors such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, and telecommunications, with a month-on-month increase in research intensity for pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, electronics, textiles, and retail [3][43] Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025/2026 have been adjusted, with non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, electric power, and public utilities seeing upward revisions [4][21] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025/2026 has decreased [4][17] - The net profit forecasts for the CSI 500 index for 2025/2026 have been downgraded [4][23] Group 5: Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has rebounded, with a net buying of A-shares overall [5][31] - In the top 10 active stocks, the buying and selling ratio in sectors such as electric new energy, telecommunications, and non-ferrous metals has increased [5][32] - For stocks with northbound holdings of less than 30 million shares, net buying was mainly in the computer, electronics, and chemicals sectors [5][33] Group 6: Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has continued to slightly rebound, reaching a three-week high [6][35] - The main net buying in margin financing was in electric new energy, telecommunications, and machinery sectors [6][36] - The proportion of financing purchases in banking, media, and pharmaceuticals has increased month-on-month [6][38] Group 7: Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have increased, with net subscriptions in ETFs overall [7][45] - Actively managed equity funds have mainly increased positions in telecommunications, non-ferrous metals, and electric new energy sectors [7][46] - New equity fund establishment scales have rebounded, with both actively and passively managed funds seeing increases [7][50]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that market trading activity has declined, with volatility across major indices also decreasing [1] - Consensus on buying through ETFs and northbound capital has continued to fall, alongside a decrease in margin trading and the buying consensus from the "Dragon and Tiger" list [1] - Margin trading has become a primary source of incremental capital in the market, while fluctuations in northbound capital remain a significant source of market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall trading activity in the market has continued to decline, with certain sectors maintaining high trading heat, while the investment sentiment shows signs of fluctuation due to net selling from northbound capital [1][10]. Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has rebounded, and the degree of "inverted" interest rates between China and the US has narrowed. The nominal and real interest rates of 10-year US Treasury bonds have remained unchanged or decreased, with inflation expectations rising. Offshore dollar liquidity has loosened, and the domestic interbank funding environment is balanced and relatively loose, with the yield curve spread (10Y-1Y) narrowing [2]. Trading Heat, Volatility, and Liquidity - Market trading heat has declined, with the volatility of major indices also decreasing. Sectors such as real estate, textile and apparel, construction, electricity and public utilities, banking, and coal have trading heat above the 80th percentile, while the volatility of communication and electronics is also above the 80th historical percentile [3]. Institutional Research - The sectors with the highest research activity include electronics, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, communications, and machinery, while sectors like consumer services, light industry, chemicals, steel, and non-ferrous metals have seen a month-on-month increase in research heat [4]. Analyst Forecasts - Profit forecasts for the years 2025 and 2026 for the entire A-share market have been raised. Specifically, profit forecasts for sectors such as finance, non-ferrous metals, machinery, coal, and electric power have been increased. Index-wise, profit forecasts for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and ChiNext have been raised, while the CSI 500 has seen mixed adjustments. In terms of investment style, profit forecasts for large-cap, mid-cap growth, and value stocks have been increased, while small-cap growth stocks have been downgraded [5]. Northbound Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with a net selling trend overall. The trading pattern has shifted between "net buying - net selling - net buying." In terms of the top 10 active stocks, the buying and selling ratio in sectors like communications, non-ferrous metals, and banking has increased, while it has decreased in automotive, non-bank financials, and electronics. Northbound capital has mainly net bought in sectors like pharmaceuticals and non-ferrous metals, while net selling occurred in electronics, communications, and food and beverage sectors [6]. Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has slightly rebounded, with a net purchase of 27 billion yuan last week. The main net purchases were in sectors like electronics, communications, and non-bank financials, while net selling occurred in automotive, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors. The financing buy-in ratio has notably increased in communications, home appliances, and non-bank financials [7]. Dragon and Tiger List Trading - The trading activity on the Dragon and Tiger list has continued to decline, although the total trading amount on this list as a percentage of total A-share trading has increased. Sectors such as coal, building materials, and oil and petrochemicals have a relatively high and rising proportion of trading on the Dragon and Tiger list [8]. Active Equity Fund Positioning - The active equity funds have seen a decrease in positions, with net inflows into sectors like communications, electronics, and computers, while reducing positions in home appliances, banking, and food and beverage sectors. The correlation between active equity funds and large/mid-cap growth and small-cap value has increased. New equity fund establishment has seen a rebound in scale, with active and passive fund sizes decreasing and increasing respectively. ETFs have experienced net redemptions, primarily in personal ETFs [9][10].

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed. The nominal and real yields of 10Y US Treasuries have decreased or remained unchanged, driven by a decline in inflation expectations [2][13][19]. Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with the volatility of major indices showing mixed trends. The trading activity in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electric vehicles, steel, electronics, automotive, and real estate remains above the 80th percentile [3][25]. - The volatility of major indices, including the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300, has increased, while the volatility of the ChiNext and STAR Market indices has decreased. Sectors like electronics, automotive, and chemicals have seen a rapid increase in volatility [3][31]. Analyst Predictions - Analysts have continued to raise net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026. The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts has increased across various sectors, including retail, finance, light industry, and public utilities [4][50]. - The net profit forecasts for major indices such as the CSI 300, CSI 500, and SSE 50 have been adjusted upwards for 2025 and 2026, while the ChiNext index has seen mixed adjustments [4][23][24]. Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with an overall net sell-off in A-shares. The trading volume ratio in sectors like non-ferrous metals, electronics, and banking has increased, while it has decreased in pharmaceuticals, machinery, and communications [5][29]. - Northbound trading has shown a net buying trend in sectors such as electronics, automotive, and electric vehicles, while net selling has occurred in computing, pharmaceuticals, and communications [5][33]. Margin Financing Activity - The activity of margin financing has dropped to its lowest point since mid-September 2025, with a net sell-off of 12.812 billion yuan. The main net buying has been in sectors like non-ferrous metals, military, and pharmaceuticals, while net selling has occurred in TMT, finance, and automotive sectors [6][35]. Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to increase, with significant net subscriptions in ETFs, primarily driven by individual investors. Active equity funds have mainly increased their positions in electronics, automotive, and media sectors, while reducing exposure in communications, finance, and real estate [6][8][52]. - The newly established equity fund scale has rebounded, with both active and passive funds seeing an increase in size. ETFs related to financials, non-ferrous metals, and electronics have been the main net buyers, while those related to communications, chemicals, and transportation have seen net selling [6][53].

Macro Liquidity - The US dollar index has declined, and the degree of "inversion" in the China-US interest rate spread has narrowed [2][13] - The nominal and real yields of 10-year US Treasuries have decreased or remained unchanged, with inflation expectations also falling [2][19] - Offshore dollar liquidity has tightened, while domestic interbank liquidity remains balanced and slightly loose [2][19] Market Trading Activity - Overall market trading activity has decreased, with the volatility of major indices showing mixed trends [3][25] - Trading heat in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, electric vehicles, steel, electronics, automotive, and real estate remains above the 80th percentile [3][25] - The volatility of the communication and electronics sectors remains above the 80th historical percentile [3][31] Analyst Predictions - Analysts have continued to raise net profit forecasts for the entire A-share market for 2025 and 2026 [4][43] - The proportion of stocks with upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 has increased [4][43] - Sectors such as retail, finance, light industry, and public utilities have seen upward revisions in net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [4][43][44] Northbound Trading Activity - Northbound trading activity has decreased, with overall net selling of A-shares [5][29] - In the top 10 active stocks, the trading volume ratio for sectors like non-ferrous metals, electronics, and banking has increased [5][32] - Northbound trading has shown net buying in sectors such as electronics, automotive, and electric vehicles, while net selling occurred in computing, pharmaceuticals, and communications [5][33] Margin Financing Activity - Margin financing activity has dropped to its lowest point since mid-September 2025 [6][35] - The main net buying in margin financing has been in sectors like non-ferrous metals, military, and pharmaceuticals [6][38] - The proportion of financing purchases in sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, steel, and public utilities has increased [6][38] Fund Activity - The positions of actively managed equity funds have continued to rise, with net subscriptions in ETFs persisting [8][45] - Actively managed equity funds have mainly increased positions in sectors like electronics, automotive, and media [8][46] - New fund establishment has seen a rebound, with both actively and passively managed funds experiencing growth [8][50]

Group 1 - The market trading activity has rebounded, with the volatility of indices such as the SSE 50, CSI 300, and STAR 50 increasing, while other major broad-based indices have declined [1] - After the holiday, margin trading and personal ETFs have become the main sources of incremental capital in the market, indicating a shift in investor behavior [1] - The fluctuations in northbound capital may serve as a disturbance in market trading dynamics, and there is a need to monitor the sustainability of margin trading replenishment going forward [1]