Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustments in the second-hand housing transaction value-added tax and the further changes in Beijing's purchase and loan policies are expected to enhance market activity and reduce transaction costs in the long term, although short-term effects on housing prices will depend on the dynamics between buyers and sellers [2][3]. Policy Adjustments - The value-added tax rate for second-hand housing transactions has been reduced to 3% for properties sold within two years of purchase (previously 5%), while properties held for two years or more remain exempt from this tax [2]. - Beijing has adjusted the minimum social security or individual income tax payment period for non-local buyers to 2 years within the Fifth Ring and 1 year outside of it (previously 3 years and 2 years, respectively) [2]. - Families with multiple children can purchase one additional property within the Fifth Ring, and the minimum down payment for second homes using public housing funds has been lowered from 30% to 25% [2]. Market Outlook - The adjustments are anticipated to improve market activity, with a slight improvement in the total sales volume of first and second-hand homes in Beijing observed post-policy implementation, although the overall impact remains to be seen due to seasonal factors [3]. - The uncertainty in the real estate market for 2026 is primarily linked to supply-side factors, including the natural digestion of social inventory, the release of core city limited-sale projects, and the impact of policies on land supply and second-hand housing listings [3]. Investment Opportunities - Despite the weak fundamentals in the real estate market, ongoing positive policy developments suggest a need for continued observation of the interaction between policy and fundamentals [3]. - In the short to medium term, the real estate development sector requires patience, with a focus on absolute return opportunities in core assets within the commercial real estate sector and companies with strong long-term competitiveness and reasonable valuations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of new housing policies in Beijing has led to a significant increase in both viewing and transaction volumes, with new home daily transactions rising more than those of second-hand homes [1][2]. Group 1: Market Response to New Policies - Market confidence and demand have strengthened, indicating positive signs of stabilization in the market, with expectations for high transaction volumes in the first quarter of the year [2]. - The new policies, effective from December 24, 2025, have optimized purchase conditions by reducing the social security and tax duration requirements for non-residents, allowing multi-child families to purchase additional properties, and lowering down payment ratios for second homes [2][3]. - Following the new policy, the average daily signing of new homes increased by 44.6% to 133 units, while second-hand homes saw a 37% increase to 702 units [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Trends - The first weekend after the new policy saw a 30% to 40% increase in viewing volumes, particularly for popular projects, indicating a rebound in market activity [4]. - The increase in new home transactions is primarily driven by improvement-oriented families, who prioritize quality and location, leading to a more significant rise in new home sales compared to second-hand homes [4][5]. - The market is expected to maintain high transaction levels in early 2026, with ongoing demand from both first-time buyers and those seeking improved living conditions [5].