通信板块当前观点汇报 20251020 摘要 光模块和北美算力链短期内或有超额收益，但绝对收益需更多变化驱动。 通信板块中，运营商板块具红利/防守属性，业绩波动小；泛无线产业链 及端侧 AI 产品受中美贸易摩擦影响，三季度出口略显疲软，但同比仍增 长。 国内算力链受芯片采购策略影响，三季度基础设施订单交付量预计下降。 光模块行业受益于英伟达新型算力芯片及云厂商网络升级，1.6T 光模块 需求大幅上调，或提前推动 2027 年业绩高增长，提升估值。 AI 产业链或北美算力产业链具投资性价比，建议坚守并跟踪全球 token 消耗数据。关注光通信行业是否进入新一轮架构周期，以及 Ruby 相关 产业链为 2026 年需求做的准备。 光模块市场需求巨大，800G 需求已达 4,000-4,500 万只，1.6T 达 2000 万只，整体供不应求，降价幅度预计小于以往，相关公司产业景 气度有望延续。 目前判断 2026 年行业增长无大碍，新增需求量或非常大，中远期前景 清晰。10 月是光模块市场活跃期，关注北美算力链三季度业绩及投资者 日活动，或带来乐观指引和产品升级。 Q&A 近期通信板块的整体表现和未来预期如何？ ...

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a strong performance in early trading on June 30, with major indices rising, particularly in the media, electronics, and communications sectors [1] - The AI ETF on the ChiNext, Huaxia (159381), surged over 1.8%, marking its sixth consecutive increase, with leading stocks including Bochuang Technology, Shenzhou Taiyue, Taicheng Light, and others [1] - Nvidia's stock reached a historic high, closing at $157.8 with a weekly increase of 9.7%, pushing its market capitalization close to $3.85 trillion, which positively influenced the domestic computing power sector [1] Group 2 - The Huaxia AI ETF tracks the ChiNext AI Index, selecting AI-focused companies listed on the ChiNext, with a daily price fluctuation limit of ±20% [2] - The fund has a low annual management fee rate of 0.15% and a custody fee rate of 0.05%, making its overall fee structure competitive among comparable funds [2] - The index has a significant weight in optical module CPO stocks, exceeding 26.6%, indicating a high "light" content in the AI index, with major constituents including Xinyi Technology, Zhongji Xuchuang, and others [2]