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李迅雷专栏 | 为何我一直看好黄金
中泰证券资管· 2025-04-23 06:06
2016年4月初,我刚开设微信公众号不久,便很积极地写作。当时股市的机会不多,人民币则经历了从 2005-14年的九年升值之后开始贬值,故大家换美元的热情比较高。但美元真的很值得长期持有吗?我对 于一致预期通常都持怀疑态度。于是我就写了一篇《换美元不如买黄金》。逻辑很简单:各国为了应对经 济不振的难题,基本采取了超发货币的对策,美国也不例外,即货币的增速远超黄金产量的增速。 原本以为这一观点无可争辩,谁知留言中以批评居多。暗想这么简单的道理大家居然都没有想明白,又奋 笔疾书,写了 《再论换美元不如买黄金》 ,以为可以平息争论,谁知却引发更大的争议。 留言 1 :李总,历史上黄金两大周期都是短牛长熊,如何确定目前熊市已经走完?还有一个数据是,实物 投资金需求量和金价走势拟合度较高,一季度金价大涨,但实物投资金需求改善不大,那是否预示着金价 上涨是不可持续的? 留言 2 :黄金只有消费属性,与货币没有关系了,只是不明白各国央行买那么多黄金干什么? 留言 3 :为何巴菲特不买黄金?因为黄金不能下崽,没有利息,持有它只有成本,其盈利全靠高价卖给别 人。美国经济已经复苏,再来一个科技革命,黄金会休息十年。 留言 4 : ...
为何我一直看好黄金
李迅雷金融与投资· 2025-04-21 14:04
Core Viewpoint - The article argues that gold is a more reliable long-term investment compared to the US dollar, especially in the context of global monetary expansion and economic instability [1][2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Context - Many countries have adopted similar strategies to address economic downturns, primarily through fiscal debt issuance and central bank bond purchases, leading to monetary expansion [3][4]. - The US Federal Reserve holds over 60% of its total assets in US Treasury bonds, while Japan's central bank holds an even larger proportion, indicating significant reliance on debt to manage economic imbalances [4]. - The general trend of currency depreciation against the US dollar has been observed, with emerging market currencies depreciating over 90% since the Bretton Woods system ended [7][10]. Group 2: Gold as an Investment - Gold is viewed as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, with increasing demand for gold as a natural monetary asset due to concerns over paper currency inflation [10][18]. - Central banks, including China's, have been increasing their gold reserves significantly, with China's reserves rising from 2,235.40 tons at the beginning of 2024 to 2,279.57 tons by the end of the year, reflecting a trend of accumulating gold as a safeguard against economic uncertainty [19][20]. - The price of gold has shown a strong upward trend, with a notable increase of nearly 30% in just four months, driven by fears regarding the stability of the US dollar and rising debt levels [22][23]. Group 3: Comparison with Bitcoin - Bitcoin is characterized by extreme volatility, making it less stable as a currency compared to gold, which has maintained its monetary properties for over three millennia [12][13]. - The historical performance of gold shows significant long-term appreciation, contrasting with Bitcoin's erratic price movements, which raises questions about its viability as a stable currency [12][23]. Group 4: Global Economic Trends - The article highlights a trend of low growth and high volatility in the global economy, suggesting that gold is an appropriate investment during such turbulent times [17][18]. - The increasing structural issues in the global economy, including wealth disparity and economic imbalances, are likely to exacerbate risks, further enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [18][23].