注：数据来源Emmanuel Saez，UC Berkeley，David Jacks，Wind，统计区间1925-1991。 沃尔克之后，货币政策开始变得无所不能，此后的美国内生性的经济危机仅发生过三次，相较于19世纪骤减。 但是用变色油墨与无酸纸真的可以对抗"剩余价值"的铁论么？美国政府债务就像里根标志性的微笑一样，以指数级的上扬动摇着全世界的信心。 以指数方程为例，随着自变量的逐步扩大，曲线的曲率将会逐步接近于无穷大。换句话说，如果当前美国政府沿用赤字财政思路，我们或许会见证"信用 货币的数量达到无穷大，而相对价值无穷趋近于零的经济学奇迹"。 1981年可以被看作是现代经济学的一个关键分水岭。 那一年新自由主义卷土，现代货币理论（MMT）开始使用"信贷创造货币"的话语权，构建以"美国消费-全球供给"的新全球化格局。 注：数据来源Wind，统计区间1952/03-2025/06。 在21世纪前四分之一叶的最后一个月，现货期货黄金、银、铜屡次刷新历史新高，这无疑是金融市场发出的显著信号。 对于当前投资者们来说，与其猜测"债务奇点"到来，莫若关心生产关系本身。 关注大类资源品：当前正当时！ 从多方角度判断，各 ...

美联储换帅迷雾：特朗普的政治算计与华尔街的焦虑 市场对这场"未遂政变"的反应，颇具玩味。尽管鲍威尔辞职的传言最终被证实为不实信息，但30年期美国国债收益率却应声下跌了8个基点。与此同时，芝 加哥商品交易所的利率期货显示，交易员们已将明年6月前美联储降息的可能性上调至72%。这种市场价格的剧烈波动，暴露了华尔街深藏的焦虑：无论最 终接任者是谁，特朗普总统所期望的，是一个能够在其货币政策上给予灵活配合的央行行长。 值得关注的是，美国国家经济委员会主任小凯文·哈塞特已公开表态，愿意接受任何任命。他此前在公开场合提出的主张，诸如对通胀和赤字的看法，似乎 与现代货币理论（MMT）以及特朗普政府"债务不是问题"的财政理念不谋而合。倘若哈塞特执掌美联储，其任期内的货币政策取向，很可能彻底颠覆自上 世纪八十年代以来央行保持独立性的传统，将货币政策工具化，以服务于政府的短期经济目标。这样的转变，不仅可能对美元的信用体系造成冲击，更可能 在全球央行博弈的格局中引发新的变量。 从更宏观的视角审视，这场关于美联储人事变动引发的风波，折射出美国经济治理体制中深层次的结构性矛盾。当白宫亟需美联储的货币政策来为高达3.2 万亿美元的联邦债 ...

也许你会纳闷，为啥日本央行的动向值得一惊一乍，首先就玩金融来讲，小日子甚至比美国还激进老辣，现代货币理论（MMT）就是它最先进行实践 的，大部分人只知道美国金融霸权收割全球，实际上日本暗度陈仓在海外利用日元信用再"造"了一个日本。当今除了美联储，就数日本央行对全球资本市 场影响大。 日本作为全球长期高质量低息洼地，大量机构从日本借钱然后投向高息市场进行套息交易，最核心的战场就是美国。日本一加息叠加美国12月降息（目前 降息概率87%），随着息差降低，单从套息交易这因素来讲，会加剧资金平仓回流日本，短期市场抛压增强流动性吃紧，影响全球资产价格。 来源：徐戈 一向含含糊糊的日本央行，竟然在今天明确放鹰表示要加息，目前12月加息概率已升至76%。 一时间日本中长期国债收益率纷纷再创历史新高。 这是今早比特币从90000万上方跳水8万以及美股盘前跌1%左右的核心原因（国内上周开会影响很小）。 诚如前几天我说的，"短期走势神仙都看不清，说不定等下给你来个回踩扎下8万"，新手最好候着看戏别掺和。 长期一点来看，套息交易影响只是中短期的，美股大概率是没那么快到顶的，但加密货币就不好说了，利好也可以拿来当出货的幌子。 耐心等 ...

当特朗普在11月30日突然宣布"已选定下任美联储主席"时，华尔街的交易员们连夜修改了利率预期模型。这位从不按常理出牌的总统，在鲍威尔任期还剩两 年半之际就急不可耐地启动换帅程序，背后究竟藏着怎样的政治算计？ 市场对这场"未遂政变"的反应耐人寻味。尽管鲍威尔辞职传闻被证明是谣言，但30年期美债收益率仍应声下跌8个基点，芝加哥商品交易所的利率期货显 示，交易员已将明年6月前降息概率上调至72%。这种反应暴露出华尔街的深层焦虑：无论最终人选是谁，特朗普需要的都是一个能在货币政策上"灵活配 合"的央行行长。 值得注意的是，美国国家经济委员会主任哈塞特已公开表态"愿意接受任命"，其主张的现代货币理论（MMT）与特朗普"债务不是问题"的财政理念不谋而 合。若此人执掌美联储，可能颠覆八十年代以来"央行独立性"传统，将货币政策彻底工具化。这种转变不仅会影响美元信用体系，更可能重塑全球央行博弈 格局。 从更宏观视角看，这场人事风波折射出美国经济治理的结构性矛盾。当白宫需要美联储为3.2万亿美元联邦债务续命时，当2024年大选需要宽松货币环境造 势时，所谓的"央行独立性"在政治现实面前显得格外脆弱。正如1990年代格林斯潘与克林 ...

Core Points - The article discusses the decline of Western economics, particularly in the context of recent political changes in the U.S., suggesting that this decline has led to a more superficial approach to economic policy [1][16] - It emphasizes the importance of foundational economic principles, as outlined in Mankiw's "Principles of Economics," and critiques the neglect of these principles in contemporary U.S. economic policy [4][5] Group 1: Economic Principles - Mankiw's textbook outlines three key macroeconomic principles: a country's standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services, excessive money printing leads to rising price levels, and there is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment in the short term [4][5] - These principles, while not perfect, represent some of the best insights in economics and have been largely ignored in recent U.S. economic policies, which have often contradicted these foundational ideas [5][6] Group 2: Policy Critique - The article critiques the U.S. government's recent economic policies, which have focused on excessive money printing and neglect of production capacity, leading to inflation and economic stagnation [9][12] - It highlights the disconnect between economic theory and practice, noting that policies based on flawed assumptions have resulted in significant economic challenges, including high inflation that has adversely affected the living standards of many Americans [9][12] Group 3: Historical Context - The article argues that a lack of respect for historical economic principles and practices has contributed to the current economic malaise in the U.S., suggesting that a more rigorous adherence to established economic theories could have led to better outcomes [12][14] - It posits that the superficial understanding of economics prevalent among contemporary scholars and politicians has resulted in misguided policies that fail to address the underlying economic realities [16][17]

Summary of Conference Call on Government Bond Trading Resumption Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the government bond market and its dynamics in the context of monetary policy and market expectations. Key Points and Arguments Government Bond Trading Resumption - The resumption of government bond trading in Q4 is not urgently needed as the central bank has other liquidity tools like MLF and OMO available [1][2][4] - The market has already priced in a 5 basis point benefit from the resumption, with actual results expected to be between 4 to 6 basis points [1][6] - The decision to resume trading in Q4 rather than September may be due to uncertainties in policy timing and coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities [4] Market Expectations and Trends - The bond market is expected to exhibit a healthy state of bidirectional fluctuations in 2025, with periods of both increases and decreases [5] - The anticipated yield for the ten-year government bond by the end of the year is around 1.75%, with no-tax bonds expected to be between 1.65% and 1.70% [3][15] - The overall impact of the government bond trading policy is seen as neutral, but it may push the market towards a more favorable trading direction [6] Future Bond Market Dynamics - Over the next few years, the volume of government bond trading is expected to gradually increase, replacing the need for reserve requirement cuts [7] - Large banks are primarily purchasing short-term bonds, with a balanced approach towards medium to long-term bonds [8] - The bond market is predicted to perform better in Q4 compared to Q3, with opportunities for long-duration bond trading [9] Interaction Between Stock and Bond Markets - There exists a certain degree of a seesaw effect between the stock and bond markets, but it is not absolute [10] - The transfer of household deposits to the stock market has limited impact on the bond market, with non-bank investors being the main source of fund diversion [10] Local Government Bond Rates - Future local government bond rates are expected to be around 2.4% to 2.5%, which may exert pressure on the equity market by setting a ceiling on bond yields [11] Fund Redemption Fee Policy - The impact of the fund redemption fee policy is limited, as funds have not truly exited the bond market but have instead been reinvested [12] Trade Friction and Market Impact - Trade friction has been partially priced into the market, and the resumption of government bond trading is seen as a clear trend despite ongoing pressures [14] Predictions for Q4 and Beyond - The bond market is expected to experience a rebound and correction in Q4, with specific yield targets set for various bonds by year-end [15] Other Important Insights - The central bank may take measures to balance liquidity if irrational downward movements occur in the bond market [4] - The transparency of government bond trading operations is expected to lead to more rational market reactions [6]

Core Insights - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, which may signal a preparation for potential currency expansion in the future [2][3] - The rise in gold reserves is seen as a strategic move to diversify foreign exchange reserves and reduce reliance on a single currency, amidst rising government debt and geopolitical tensions [2][3] - The relationship between gold reserves and currency issuance suggests that central banks are laying a foundation for future monetary expansion [2][3] Group 1 - The current economic environment is characterized by a cycle of debt and currency creation, with governments increasing debt issuance to address economic pressures, and central banks often being the ultimate holders of this debt [3] - The growth in gold reserves may be a proactive measure in anticipation of an upcoming wave of currency expansion [3] - The international monetary order is undergoing a transformation, with challenges to the dollar-dominated system, and gold serves as a neutral value anchor during this transition [3] Group 2 - In China, the increase in gold reserves reflects confidence in the internationalization of the renminbi and a strategic response to potential global monetary instability [4] - The relationship between central bank gold purchases and currency expansion is complex, serving as a buffer for potential unconventional monetary policies rather than a direct trigger for currency overexpansion [4] - Central banks face the challenge of balancing economic stimulus with currency stability, and gold purchases indicate a nuanced understanding of future monetary policy needs [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article critiques Ray Dalio's understanding of sovereign debt issues, arguing that his microeconomic principles do not apply to sovereign currency nations [3][4][10]. Group 1: Critique of Dalio's Views - The first main point is that microeconomic principles are not applicable to sovereign currency nations, as governments can create their own currency and do not face the same constraints as individuals or companies [3][4]. - The second point is that macroeconomics is not a machine; it is influenced by changing environments and expectations, making it inappropriate to apply a one-size-fits-all approach to economic policy [7][10]. Group 2: Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) Discussion - The article suggests that the arguments presented align closely with Modern Monetary Theory (MMT), which has gained traction in Eastern economic discussions, contrasting with its perception in the West [10][12]. - It emphasizes that the government's ability to spend is not limited by money supply but by real resources, advocating for increased deficits in the context of insufficient domestic demand and excess capacity [13][12]. Group 3: Practical Implications - The article argues for a pragmatic approach to economic theory, suggesting that useful ideas from MMT should be adopted regardless of their traditional classification as heretical [14][15]. - It highlights a global shift towards practical, results-oriented economic thinking, moving away from rigid adherence to Western economic doctrines [15].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market and its relationship with macroeconomic data, focusing on the current state of the bond market and future trends. Key Points and Arguments Bond Market Sensitivity to Macroeconomic Data - The bond market has become desensitized to macroeconomic data due to strong market expectations of weak economic recovery, central bank interest rate cuts, and increased fiscal support, making short-term data fluctuations less impactful [1][3][8] - The bond market's reaction to macroeconomic indicators like GDP, CPI, and PMI has diminished, with current trading focused on future scenarios rather than present data [3][4][8] - The market is currently pricing in expectations of insufficient effective demand and unresolved deflationary pressures, leading to a consensus that short-term data will not significantly alter the outlook [3][4][8] Interest Rate Trends - Anti-involution and de-real estate policies are expected to push the interest rate center upwards by approximately 10-15 basis points annually, with the long-term bond yield potentially stabilizing around 1.5% [10][11] - The bond market is experiencing a "slow bear" phase, where liquidity premium opportunities and fiscal policy effectiveness may outweigh current macroeconomic fundamentals [11][12] Stock-Bond Interaction - There is a significant stock-bond interaction, with the Shanghai Composite Index's movements directly affecting 10-year government bond yields, averaging a 4 basis point change for every 100-point shift in the index [25] - The current market environment shows a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds, influenced by redemption pressures and investor behavior [5][7] Future Market Predictions - If the 10-year government bond yield approaches 1.0%, it may signal an end to the interest rate bottoming process, contingent on the successful implementation of anti-involution and de-real estate policies [13] - The bond market's future trajectory will be influenced by liquidity conditions, institutional behavior, and policy directions rather than solely macroeconomic data [7][11] Current Economic Indicators - August's social financing growth slightly declined but remains high, with government debt share increasing and M1 growth reaching a yearly high, indicating improved monetary transaction vitality [21][22] - CPI and PPI data suggest some recovery in domestic demand, but external demand remains weak, and fiscal support is still under observation [23][24] Redemption Pressures - Concerns about large-scale redemptions exist, linked to liquidity issues, which could lead to rising long-term interest rates and significant adjustments in credit bond yields [26] - Historical data shows that the bond market has experienced multiple significant declines since 2022, with a notable pattern of pre-dip "shadow declines" [27][28] Market Recovery Post-Dip - After a bond market dip, there is typically a weak sentiment initially, but recovery generally occurs within an average of 7 trading days, with cumulative recovery around 10 basis points [29] Short-Term Trading Opportunities - The upcoming week may present left-side trading opportunities, suggesting that investors should prepare to capture potential rebounds [30] Other Important Insights - The bond market's desensitization is seen as a phase that could change if multiple economic indicators show consistent strong improvement [9] - The relationship between monetary and fiscal policies is crucial, with the potential for fiscal measures to drive economic recovery if inflation remains under control [20]

Core Viewpoint - Japan's economy is experiencing a significant shift as inflation rises, leading to a normalization of monetary policy after years of stagnation and negative interest rates. The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates three times since March 2022, marking a departure from its long-standing ultra-loose monetary policy [1][15]. Group 1: Economic Context - Japan's inflation has consistently exceeded the 2% target since 2022, with CPI inflation reaching 2.5%, 3.2%, and 2.7% in 2022, 2023, and 2024 respectively [4]. - The nominal GDP growth rate for Japan from 2021 to 2024 is projected to average 3.0%, outperforming the 2.0% average from 2013 to 2017 [11]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Changes - The Bank of Japan has implemented a series of interest rate hikes, totaling 60 basis points over three increases since March 2022, marking the end of an eight-year negative interest rate policy [1][15]. - The introduction of quantitative easing (QE) and later qualitative and quantitative easing (QQE) aimed to combat deflation but had limited success until recent external shocks triggered inflation [2][3]. Group 3: External Influences - Three major external shocks since 2020 have contributed to Japan's inflation: the COVID-19 pandemic disrupting global supply chains, the subsequent rise in commodity prices, and the geopolitical tensions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict [5][6][8]. - The depreciation of the yen against the dollar, exacerbated by divergent monetary policies between Japan and other major economies, has intensified inflationary pressures in Japan [8][15]. Group 4: Inflation Dynamics - Input inflation pressures have been significant, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) averaging 9.8% in 2022, leading to CPI and core CPI inflation rates of 4.0% by the end of that year [7][8]. - The rise in inflation expectations has been notable, with surveys indicating a significant increase in the proportion of respondents anticipating price increases [12][13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the positive trends, Japan's economic recovery remains fragile, with real GDP growth projected at only 1.2% from 2021 to 2024, indicating a slow recovery compared to other economies [14]. - The potential for rising government financing costs due to increased bond yields poses a challenge for Japan's fiscal stability, especially given its high debt-to-GDP ratio [15].