光刻机看好的是长期的产业进展催化，但短期交易结构上受限于龙头股如茂莱汇成的股东结构上以半导体基金为 主，近期抛压大，参考汉王海王中芯的走势，ETF基金最近被监 管持续降温卖出，ETF里面被多个基金交织的权重 就受到影响，谁卖都被砸，再加上产业近期没什么新催化，所以又没什么资金承接，就导致短期调整剧烈，所以 我们强调过很多次，光刻机是脉冲式行情，考虑到产业的进展仍需要大量研发投入，业绩放量和消化估值的节奏 不会那么快，比较吃事件催化，来支撑高估值，而不是吃基本面业绩，所以在关注产业中长期向上趋势的同时， 也要回顾复盘我们从去年10月份跟踪提示以来涨幅100%-150%之间的高波动股价规律，来看图进行波段的操作， 交易手册里面的10日线参考指标以及老生常谈的低位多看逻辑变化高位多看趋势量价的策略就是为了给中长期的 逻辑上一个短期的保险，来应对近期这种市场资金面和避险情绪面的调整，否则就很容易做过山车，但整体长期 趋势还是震荡向上的，点评里讲到的后期的催化我们还会继续跟踪下去，静待DUV光刻机放量和进一步突破净润 式的进展，毕竟这是全世界最精密最难做的机器，实际进度肯定没有股价上涨时所注入的预期那么快，在景气度 上 ...

Core Insights - Changxin Technology, a leading domestic storage giant, is set to submit its IPO prospectus soon, having completed its IPO counseling work as of October 10, 2023, indicating a significant step towards its public offering [1][6]. Company Overview - Changxin Technology is the first and currently the only IDM (Integrated Device Manufacturer) in mainland China to achieve large-scale production of general-purpose DRAM, which integrates chip design, manufacturing, packaging, and sales [1][6]. - The company has established a strong presence in the supply chain, serving various clients from domestic smartphone brands to server manufacturers and consumer electronics companies, thereby enhancing supply chain security [1][6]. Technological Milestones - In 2019, Changxin successfully mass-produced 8Gb DDR4 chips using its self-developed 19nm process, marking a significant breakthrough in advanced DRAM production capabilities in mainland China [2][7]. - From 2021 to 2023, the company advanced its technology by launching more efficient LPDDR5 products and began planning for a second wafer fab to increase production capacity [2][7]. - By 2024-2025, Changxin restructured into "Changxin Technology Group," establishing a clearer corporate structure and initiating its IPO process, transitioning from state-driven projects to market-oriented, sustainable development [2][7]. Competitive Position - Despite a technology gap of 1.5 to 2 generations compared to global leaders like Samsung and SK Hynix, Changxin's DDR4 and LPDDR4X/5 chips meet the performance needs of most commercial and consumer applications and offer competitive pricing [3][8]. - The company is maintaining a rapid pace of development, effectively keeping up with international competitors [3][8]. Industry Impact - The IPO of Changxin Technology is expected to activate the domestic storage industry chain, providing significant direct financing opportunities and potentially driving technological upgrades across hundreds of local supply chain enterprises [4][9]. - The listing will also help redefine the valuation of hard technology companies, particularly those in capital and technology-intensive sectors, encouraging long-term investment in the hard tech field [4][9].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry in China is transitioning from a global cooperative model to a regional strategic industry due to geopolitical factors, with significant growth in domestic wafer production capacity expected in the coming years [2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - By 2024, China's mainland wafer production capacity is projected to account for nearly 25% of the global total, increasing to 31% by 2029, indicating a strong demand signal for local semiconductor equipment manufacturers [2]. - The equipment market size for wafer fabrication in mainland China is expected to reach $41.2 billion in 2024, leading other regions globally. However, a decline of 5% to $39 billion is anticipated in 2025 due to prior expansions and equipment stockpiling [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - The impressive performance of equipment manufacturers in mainland China is attributed to their enhanced technological competitiveness and market development capabilities, supported by strong backing from the government and clients [3]. Group 3: Industry Players - A detailed table lists various companies involved in different process nodes, highlighting key players in the semiconductor equipment sector, such as North Huachuang, SMIC, and others, across various technologies [4].