[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 10 Jan 2026 中国策略 China Strategy 坚持半导体主线，积极参与春季行情 Maintain the Semiconductor Theme and Actively Participate in the Spring Rally 周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com yx.huang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们明确半导体主线，本周在 CES 等催化带动下，全球半导体板块持续走强，A 股半导体设备指数单周上涨 17%。我们认为，半导体行情尚未结束，后续操作上，建议在半导体设备板块回落至关键均线附近时择机加仓；A 股科创芯片整体仍处于相对低位，配置价值依然突出；恒生科技此前回调幅度较为充分，在互联网龙头资本开支 预期上修的背景下，存在补涨空间。市场层面， ...

Group 1 - The semiconductor sector is experiencing a resurgence, with the semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) showing a significant increase, up 1.27% at midday, indicating a potential three-day rally [1][3] - Recent announcements from leading manufacturers in the upstream wafer fabrication sector reveal expansion plans, with major bidding activities scheduled for Q3, suggesting a critical turning point for the industry [3] - Over 30 semiconductor companies have disclosed performance forecasts for the first half of 2025, with more than 80% of these companies expecting positive earnings growth, indicating a robust recovery in the sector [3] Group 2 - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) has seen a net inflow of 31.8 million in the last two days, reflecting a shift in investment strategy towards this sector [1][3] - The median net profit growth for these companies is projected to exceed 80%, marking the highest growth rate for the same period since 2021 [3] - Despite strong earnings growth and favorable industry conditions, semiconductor stock prices remain relatively low, indicating a "lagging" phenomenon that aligns with current market preferences for high-low switching [4] Group 3 - Historical data shows that the semiconductor equipment and materials sector has the potential for significant price elasticity, with the CSI Semiconductor Index experiencing a 165.93% increase since 2018 [5][6] - The semiconductor equipment ETF (561980) is positioned as a high-elasticity option for investors looking to capitalize on the anticipated recovery in the semiconductor industry [6]