[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 10 Jan 2026 中国策略 China Strategy 坚持半导体主线，积极参与春季行情 Maintain the Semiconductor Theme and Actively Participate in the Spring Rally 周林泓 Amber Zhou 黄雨昕 Yuxin Huang amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com yx.huang@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们明确半导体主线，本周在 CES 等催化带动下，全球半导体板块持续走强，A 股半导体设备指数单周上涨 17%。我们认为，半导体行情尚未结束，后续操作上，建议在半导体设备板块回落至关键均线附近时择机加仓；A 股科创芯片整体仍处于相对低位，配置价值依然突出；恒生科技此前回调幅度较为充分，在互联网龙头资本开支 预期上修的背景下，存在补涨空间。市场层面， ...

Market Overview - A-shares have mostly risen this week due to improved market sentiment and increased risk appetite, with the ChiNext Index showing the best performance, up 1.86% for the week [1] Insurance Sector Insights - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has adjusted the risk factors for insurance companies investing in related stocks, encouraging long-term capital to enter the market. This adjustment could release an equity allocation space of up to 100 billion yuan [2] - The reduction in risk factors for insurance companies' stock investments is expected to inject more liquidity into the market, as it allows for greater insurance fund inflows [3] Market Predictions - December may serve as a window for positioning in the cross-year market, with historical trends indicating that low trading volumes during an uptrend can be good buying opportunities [4] - The spring market rally for 2026 may begin as early as mid-December 2023, driven by positive policy stances and improved liquidity conditions [5] - The current market fluctuations may be a normal occurrence before unexpected changes in the fundamentals, with potential upward pressure on the renminbi being a source of such changes [6] Sector Performance - The adjustment period for key industry sectors has been sufficient, with gaming and technology sectors showing signs of potential rebounds [9] - The focus on technology growth stocks is expected to strengthen, supported by favorable domestic policies and global liquidity conditions [10] - Both technology and cyclical sectors are anticipated to drive market performance, with opportunities emerging in underperforming growth sectors [11] General Market Sentiment - The overall market direction remains upward, with expectations of continued growth despite potential short-term volatility [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the optimistic sentiment in the market driven by favorable news in the semiconductor sector and expectations from a meeting scheduled at 3 PM on Monday, highlighting the performance of bank stocks and the overall market dynamics [3][4]. Market Performance - Bank stocks showed early signs of upward movement but faced downward pressure shortly after the market opened. The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated, eventually closing up 0.22% after a brief decline [4]. - Small-cap stocks, such as those in the CSI 1000 index, experienced significant gains, reaching new highs in the last hour of trading [6]. Sector Performance - The semiconductor and communication sectors performed well, with notable contributions from robotics and battery industries. However, the photovoltaic industry showed weakness [8]. - Specific sector performance data includes: - Sci-tech chips: 62.77% year-to-date increase - Consumer electronics: 52.99% year-to-date increase - Sci-tech AI: 63.77% year-to-date increase - CSI All Index Semiconductor: 45.71% year-to-date increase [9]. Economic Indicators - The latest data from the central bank indicates that household deposits amount to 161.02 trillion yuan, with a market value ratio of 1.56 compared to the total market capitalization of 103.29 billion yuan at the end of August [14]. - The rolling 12-month increase in household deposits has stabilized around 14 trillion yuan, significantly lower than the nearly 24 trillion yuan at the beginning of 2023 [16]. Market Cycle Insights - Analyst Zhang Xia suggests that the Chinese economy and stock market follow a five-year cycle, predicting a "main rising wave" phase in the next 2-3 years post-2024 [17]. - The current market is considered to be in the second phase of a bull market, characterized by self-reinforcing incremental capital [21][22]. - Zhang emphasizes that the transition to a low-valuation, pro-cyclical market is likely to occur in the following year, driven by economic improvements and inflation [23].

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to see a rotation between growth and balanced styles in September [5] - Recent market adjustments are primarily due to profit-taking pressures, but a significant rebound was observed on September 5 [5] - The current market valuation is at a historically relatively high level, leading to increased market speculation [5] Group 2 - Citic Securities focuses on structural opportunities in consumer electronics, resources, innovative pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and gaming [1][2] - The market is entering a phase of active public fund redemption, with core assets expected to rise as pressure from redemptions is gradually digested [1] - The attractiveness of RMB assets is continuously increasing as China's manufacturing sector gains pricing power and profit margins are expected to recover in the long term [2] Group 3 - Guojin Securities highlights that the basic fundamentals are stabilizing, with opportunities emerging in physical assets like non-ferrous metals and capital goods due to domestic improvements and overseas monetary easing [3] - There are emerging opportunities in domestic demand-related sectors such as food and beverage, tourism, and insurance as capital returns are expected to recover [3] Group 4 - Kaiyuan Securities maintains an optimistic long-term outlook for the index, emphasizing a dual-driven market with technology leading the way [4] - The market structure is characterized by strong growth in technology sectors and cyclical recovery driven by anti-involution trends [4] - Investors are encouraged to focus on growth sectors while also considering lower-priced varieties in gaming, media, and the Huawei supply chain [4]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced increased volatility in the first three trading days of the week, with trading volumes exceeding 3 trillion yuan on both August 25 and August 27 [1] - The market logic shifted, with Monday driven by sentiment and a broad rally in technology stocks, while today saw profit-taking from earlier gains [1] Performance Highlights - On August 25, the Shanghai Composite Index rose to 3883 points, with significant gains in technology, semiconductor, and rare earth sectors, supported by large financial institutions [1] - Approximately 3300 stocks rose, with an average gain of 1.02%, indicating strong profit potential [1] - Following a slight decline on August 26, technology stocks rebounded on August 27, particularly in AI and semiconductor sectors, before facing a rapid decline due to profit-taking [1] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent market rally has not seen significant adjustments until the recent drop, marking the largest single-day decline since April 7, with a record trading volume of 3 trillion yuan during the drop [2] - Analysts suggest that adjustments do not signal the end of the rally, as strong mid-year performance from leading companies may attract further investment [2] - The current market dynamics are primarily driven by institutional investors rather than retail, with a focus on industry trends and performance [2] Sector Focus - Key sectors of interest include telecommunications, resources, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military, which are well understood by the market and do not exhibit significant speculative bubbles [3] - Upcoming events in the consumer electronics sector in September may present thematic investment opportunities, alongside a focus on "anti-involution" and overseas expansion as potential long-term trends [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience a volatile upward trend, with a focus on three main lines of investment, particularly in the technology sector and the potential for a rebound in the STAR Market [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67% this week, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.33%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.76% [1]. - The current market has shown characteristics typical of a "water buffalo" trend, indicating a potential for further upward movement [1]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Citic Securities suggests that the STAR Market may see a rebound due to the accumulation of retail investor inflows and the strengthening narrative of "anti-involution" [1]. - The recommendation includes focusing on sectors such as non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, innovative pharmaceuticals, military industry, and gaming during the upcoming reporting season [2]. Group 3: Sector Focus - Everbright Securities highlights three main lines for medium to long-term investment: domestic consumption, technological self-reliance, and dividend stocks [3]. - Xiangcai Securities emphasizes the importance of defensive dividend stocks, particularly in banking and insurance, as well as consumer-related sectors like education and passenger vehicles [4]. Group 4: Policy Impact - Huajin Securities notes that the current cycle of rising sectors is driven by policy improvements in fundamental expectations and low valuations in certain industries [5]. - Suggested industries benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy include automotive, new energy, chemicals, construction, and coal [5].