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霍华德·马克斯最新对话谈运气的重要,以及如何让自己更走运︱重阳荐文
重阳投资· 2025-03-24 07:09
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of being prepared for opportunities in investing, as articulated by Howard Marks, who believes that luck plays a significant role in success but is often a result of being ready when opportunities arise [1][54]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Investment is not about seeking absolute certainty but making reasonable decisions amid uncertainty, with a focus on maintaining composure in emotionally driven markets [2]. - Successful investors should identify a few critical factors and conduct deep research rather than trying to grasp all available information [2]. - The ability to control oneself rather than the market is crucial for both investing and life [2]. Group 2: Early Experiences and Learning - Howard Marks reflects on his early experiences, particularly how a high school accounting course shaped his logical thinking and understanding of financial principles [9][11]. - His career began at Citibank, where he was unexpectedly moved to the bond department, leading to significant learning and growth in the convertible bond market [14][15]. - Marks highlights the importance of doing what others are unwilling to do as a key to extraordinary success in investing [16][17]. Group 3: Selling Strategies - The challenge in investing lies not in deciding when to sell but in having the patience to hold until investments begin to pay off [19][20]. - Many investors sell based on emotional reactions to price changes rather than a rational assessment of the investment's value [25][26]. - A proper sell decision should be based on a reevaluation of the investment's original assumptions and whether they still hold true [28][29]. Group 4: Market Behavior - Markets are driven by cycles of greed and fear, leading to overreactions that create investment opportunities [33]. - Emotional extremes in market perception often lead to significant price volatility, which can be exploited by calm and rational investors [34]. Group 5: Intellectual Humility - Marks advocates for "intellectual humility," recognizing the limits of one's knowledge and the unpredictability of the future [36][38]. - Acknowledging that certainty is an illusion in investing can prevent costly mistakes [36][38]. Group 6: Preparation Over Prediction - The article stresses that while predicting the future is impossible, preparing for various potential outcomes is essential for successful investing [39][40]. - Investors should build portfolios that can perform well under multiple scenarios rather than relying on a single predicted outcome [39][40]. Group 7: Private Equity Landscape - The era of private equity as a "silver bullet" investment strategy is over, particularly as interest rates rise and the favorable conditions of the past decades change [41][45]. - Marks notes that the success of private equity was largely due to a declining interest rate environment, which is unlikely to return [45]. Group 8: Key Factors for Successful Investing - Successful investing relies on superior judgment of qualitative factors and the ability to foresee future developments [46][48]. - The best investors are those who can interpret the same information differently or understand qualitative aspects that others overlook [48][50]. Group 9: U.S. Economic Outlook - Marks expresses skepticism about the sustainability of America's economic exceptionalism, noting that while the U.S. has many advantages, the likelihood of maintaining its leading position is uncertain [52][53]. Group 10: The Role of Luck - Luck is acknowledged as a significant factor in investment success, with Marks emphasizing that being prepared when opportunities arise is crucial [54][56]. - The narrative illustrates that many successful outcomes are often a result of being in the right place at the right time, combined with readiness [54][56].
霍华德·马克斯最新对话谈运气的重要,以及如何让自己更走运
聪明投资者· 2025-03-19 06:31
"运气,就是当机会来了,你刚好已经准备好了。" 这是橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯(Howard Marks)在最近的《Money Ma》访谈中,引人深思的一句 话。 他并不回避运气在投资中的作用,甚至直言自己是"世界上最幸运的人"。但他强调,运气并不是毫无缘 由的,而是建立在持续准备的基础上。 霍华德回顾了自己的职业生涯:从1969年进入花旗银行,到意外被调入债券部门,再到最终创立橡树资 本,都是非常幸运的过程。 他认为,市场中的机会并不会主动降临到你身上,而是你要让自己站在正确的位置,做好准备,等机会到 来时能够抓住它。 "你不能预测未来,但你可以为不同的可能性做好准备。" 这就是他对投资的理解:市场是不可预测,而投资者可以通过纪律、研究和思维框架,为各种情境构建一 个稳健的投资策略。 霍华德多次强调,投资并不是寻找绝对确定性的答案,而是如何在不确定性中做出合理的决策。市场总是 处于波动之中,情绪在"完美无瑕"和"毫无希望"之间摇摆,聪明的投资者必须学会在情绪驱动的市场里保持 冷静。 霍华德还分享了巴菲特的投资哲学:找到最重要的几件事,然后深度研究,而不是试图掌握所有信息。 他说, "了解数据、信息、智 ...