以下段落摘录自 "Sixty Five Years on Wall Street" 一文，该文章源于《Grant's Interest Rate Observer》 1999年度投资会议上施洛斯的演讲和问答。 …you are going against human nature when you buy companies which are having a problem and one of the things we do in our field is we buy stocks on the way down. So that if we buy a stock at $30 and it goes to $25, we'll buy more. 当你买入那些有问题的公司时，你其实违背了人性。在我们这个领域，我们常常会在股价下跌时买入股 票。所以，如果我们以30美元的价格买入一只股票，而它跌到了25美元，我们还会买入更多。 …you have to have a strong stomach and be willing to take an unrealized loss. Don't sel ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the author's extensive background in finance, particularly in corporate finance, M&A, and investment analysis, with a focus on real estate, renewable energy, and equity markets [1] Group 1: Professional Background - The author holds a Master's degree in Banking & Finance from Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, indicating a strong academic foundation in finance [1] - The author's experience spans over 10 years in investment banking, specializing in financial modeling, valuation, and qualitative analysis [1] Group 2: Areas of Focus - The author emphasizes a focus on sectors such as real estate and renewable energy, suggesting a strategic interest in industries with growth potential [1] - The article mentions the author's intention to share insights and analysis on companies of interest, indicating a proactive approach to investment research [1] Group 3: Engagement with Audience - The author expresses a desire to connect with readers and engage in discussions, aiming for continuous improvement in financial thought leadership [1]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the importance of being prepared to seize opportunities when they arise, as luck plays a significant role in investment success [1][81]. - Howard Marks reflects on his career journey, highlighting that his unexpected transitions, such as moving from the stock department to the bond department, were pivotal moments that shaped his investment approach [11][84]. - The article discusses the unpredictability of markets and the necessity for investors to develop robust strategies that account for various potential scenarios rather than seeking absolute certainty [2][46]. Group 2 - Marks shares insights from Warren Buffett's investment philosophy, stressing the importance of focusing on a few critical factors rather than trying to know everything [3][96]. - The discussion includes the challenges of determining when to sell investments, with Marks noting that the real difficulty lies in maintaining conviction during periods of underperformance [15][22]. - The article highlights the cyclical nature of markets, driven by human emotions such as greed and fear, which create opportunities for astute investors [30][32]. Group 3 - Marks emphasizes the need for "intellectual humility," advocating for an acknowledgment of uncertainty in investment decisions and the importance of being open to differing viewpoints [34][42]. - The article critiques the notion of a "silver bullet" investment strategy, particularly in the context of private equity, suggesting that past successes may not be replicable in changing market conditions [49][60]. - Marks identifies three key factors for successful investing: the ability to interpret information at a higher level, understanding qualitative factors, and having foresight about future developments [63][71]. Group 4 - The article discusses the significant fiscal challenges facing the U.S., particularly the persistent budget deficits and the implications for future economic stability [98][104]. - Marks expresses skepticism about the sustainability of America's exceptionalism in the global economic landscape, suggesting that while the U.S. has advantages, the likelihood of maintaining its leading position is uncertain [76][80]. - The discussion concludes with advice for young professionals entering the finance industry, emphasizing the importance of pursuing a fulfilling career rather than merely chasing financial gain [114].