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霍华德·马克斯最新对话谈运气的重要,以及如何让自己更走运 | 大家谈
高毅资产管理· 2025-04-03 02:01
以下文章来源于聪明投资者 ,作者聪明投资者 聪明投资者 . 聚焦优秀投资人和企业家,甄选高质量的内容,追求可累进的成长。更多内容可下载"聪明投资 者"APP,官网:www.cmtzz.cn 来源 | 聪明投资者 预计阅读时间:21分钟 " 运 气 , 就 是 当 机 会 来 了 , 你 刚 好 已 经 准 备 好 了 。 " 这是橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯(Howard Marks)在最近的《Money Ma》访谈中,引人 深思的一句话。 他并不回避运气在投资中的作用,甚至直言自己是"世界上最幸运的人"。但他强调,运气并不是毫 无缘由的,而是建立在持续准备的基础上。 霍华德回顾了自己的职业生涯:从1969年进入花旗银行,到意外被调入债券部门,再到最终创立橡 树资本,都是非常幸运的过程。 他认为,市场中的机会并不会主动降临到你身上,而是你要让自己站在正确的位置,做好准备,等 机会到来时能够抓住它。 "你不能预测未来,但你可以为不同的可能性做好准备。" 这就是他对投资的理解:市场是不可预测,而投资者可以通过纪律、研究和思维框架,为各种情境 构建一个稳健的投资策略。 霍华德多次强调,投资并不是寻找绝对确定性的 ...
霍华德·马克斯最新对话谈运气的重要,以及如何让自己更走运 | 大家谈
高毅资产管理· 2025-04-03 02:01
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of being prepared for opportunities in investing, as luck plays a significant role in success, but it is often a result of being ready when opportunities arise [4][42]. - It discusses the necessity of understanding the difference between data, information, wisdom, and insight, highlighting that success comes from mastering what is truly important rather than knowing everything [46]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Howard Marks believes that investment is not about predicting the future but preparing for various possibilities, advocating for a disciplined and research-based approach to develop a robust investment strategy [4][28]. - The article highlights the significance of emotional control in investing, especially during market fluctuations driven by greed and fear, suggesting that successful investors maintain calm amidst market volatility [4][21]. Group 2: Selling Strategies - Marks points out that the real challenge in investing is not when to sell but how long to hold onto an investment until it starts to perform, emphasizing the need for strong psychological resilience [16][17]. - He notes that many selling decisions are driven by emotional responses rather than rational analysis, advising against selling simply because of price movements without reassessing the investment's underlying value [18][19]. Group 3: Market Behavior - The article discusses how market cycles are influenced by human emotions, leading to overreactions that create investment opportunities, as market prices often fluctuate more than the underlying economic fundamentals [21][22]. - Marks asserts that understanding these emotional cycles can help investors capitalize on market inefficiencies [23]. Group 4: Humility in Knowledge - The concept of "intellectual humility" is introduced, where investors should acknowledge the limits of their knowledge and remain open to the possibility that others may be right [24][27]. - Marks emphasizes that certainty in investing is a misconception, and being aware of one's ignorance is crucial for long-term success [25][26]. Group 5: The Changing Landscape of Private Equity - The article reflects on the past success of private equity during a prolonged low-interest-rate environment, suggesting that this "silver bullet" era is over as interest rates rise [32][35]. - Marks argues that the future performance of private equity will depend on the ability to adapt to changing market conditions rather than relying on past strategies that thrived in a different economic context [34][36]. Group 6: Key Factors for Successful Investing - Marks identifies three decisive factors for successful investing: the ability to interpret the same information at a higher level, understanding qualitative factors better than others, and having a forward-looking perspective [36][38]. - He stresses that successful investors must be able to discern what is truly important and predict its future trajectory, rather than merely accumulating facts [39][40].
霍华德·马克斯最新对话谈运气的重要,以及如何让自己更走运︱重阳荐文
重阳投资· 2025-03-24 07:09
Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of being prepared for opportunities in investing, as articulated by Howard Marks, who believes that luck plays a significant role in success but is often a result of being ready when opportunities arise [1][54]. Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Investment is not about seeking absolute certainty but making reasonable decisions amid uncertainty, with a focus on maintaining composure in emotionally driven markets [2]. - Successful investors should identify a few critical factors and conduct deep research rather than trying to grasp all available information [2]. - The ability to control oneself rather than the market is crucial for both investing and life [2]. Group 2: Early Experiences and Learning - Howard Marks reflects on his early experiences, particularly how a high school accounting course shaped his logical thinking and understanding of financial principles [9][11]. - His career began at Citibank, where he was unexpectedly moved to the bond department, leading to significant learning and growth in the convertible bond market [14][15]. - Marks highlights the importance of doing what others are unwilling to do as a key to extraordinary success in investing [16][17]. Group 3: Selling Strategies - The challenge in investing lies not in deciding when to sell but in having the patience to hold until investments begin to pay off [19][20]. - Many investors sell based on emotional reactions to price changes rather than a rational assessment of the investment's value [25][26]. - A proper sell decision should be based on a reevaluation of the investment's original assumptions and whether they still hold true [28][29]. Group 4: Market Behavior - Markets are driven by cycles of greed and fear, leading to overreactions that create investment opportunities [33]. - Emotional extremes in market perception often lead to significant price volatility, which can be exploited by calm and rational investors [34]. Group 5: Intellectual Humility - Marks advocates for "intellectual humility," recognizing the limits of one's knowledge and the unpredictability of the future [36][38]. - Acknowledging that certainty is an illusion in investing can prevent costly mistakes [36][38]. Group 6: Preparation Over Prediction - The article stresses that while predicting the future is impossible, preparing for various potential outcomes is essential for successful investing [39][40]. - Investors should build portfolios that can perform well under multiple scenarios rather than relying on a single predicted outcome [39][40]. Group 7: Private Equity Landscape - The era of private equity as a "silver bullet" investment strategy is over, particularly as interest rates rise and the favorable conditions of the past decades change [41][45]. - Marks notes that the success of private equity was largely due to a declining interest rate environment, which is unlikely to return [45]. Group 8: Key Factors for Successful Investing - Successful investing relies on superior judgment of qualitative factors and the ability to foresee future developments [46][48]. - The best investors are those who can interpret the same information differently or understand qualitative aspects that others overlook [48][50]. Group 9: U.S. Economic Outlook - Marks expresses skepticism about the sustainability of America's economic exceptionalism, noting that while the U.S. has many advantages, the likelihood of maintaining its leading position is uncertain [52][53]. Group 10: The Role of Luck - Luck is acknowledged as a significant factor in investment success, with Marks emphasizing that being prepared when opportunities arise is crucial [54][56]. - The narrative illustrates that many successful outcomes are often a result of being in the right place at the right time, combined with readiness [54][56].
霍华德·马克斯最新对话谈运气的重要,以及如何让自己更走运
聪明投资者· 2025-03-19 06:31
"运气,就是当机会来了,你刚好已经准备好了。" 这是橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯(Howard Marks)在最近的《Money Ma》访谈中,引人深思的一句 话。 他并不回避运气在投资中的作用,甚至直言自己是"世界上最幸运的人"。但他强调,运气并不是毫无缘 由的,而是建立在持续准备的基础上。 霍华德回顾了自己的职业生涯:从1969年进入花旗银行,到意外被调入债券部门,再到最终创立橡树资 本,都是非常幸运的过程。 他认为,市场中的机会并不会主动降临到你身上,而是你要让自己站在正确的位置,做好准备,等机会到 来时能够抓住它。 "你不能预测未来,但你可以为不同的可能性做好准备。" 这就是他对投资的理解:市场是不可预测,而投资者可以通过纪律、研究和思维框架,为各种情境构建一 个稳健的投资策略。 霍华德多次强调,投资并不是寻找绝对确定性的答案,而是如何在不确定性中做出合理的决策。市场总是 处于波动之中,情绪在"完美无瑕"和"毫无希望"之间摇摆,聪明的投资者必须学会在情绪驱动的市场里保持 冷静。 霍华德还分享了巴菲特的投资哲学:找到最重要的几件事,然后深度研究,而不是试图掌握所有信息。 他说, "了解数据、信息、智 ...