阿奶，你自己说这次欠我多少个嫩模？？十个不过分吧？？币圈慈善家 (@cryptocishanjia):承认自己靠运气赚钱很难么？为什么没有人承认自己atser赚钱真的就是靠运气呢？奶子哥aster真的就是靠运气投的，靠运气赚的。奶子哥想表达的是：靠运气赚的就是靠运气赚的，靠实力赚的就是靠实力赚的，实事求是，客观理性。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the relationship between cognitive ability, skill, and wealth, emphasizing that merely enhancing cognitive skills does not guarantee financial success. Instead, practical skills and the ability to sell are crucial for earning money [1][16]. Group 1: Wealth and Social Stratification - Society is stratified into three layers: the lowest layer sells pure time with no technical skills, the middle layer sells both time and skills, while the top layer engages in high-risk, high-reward activities [2][3][4]. - The lower layer's jobs are easily replaceable and lack scarcity, while the middle layer includes professionals like programmers and doctors who add value through their skills [2][4]. - The top layer, consisting of entrepreneurs and high-risk investors, can earn quickly but also faces significant risks, including potential financial ruin [5][16]. Group 2: The Role of Skills and Luck - For most individuals, the only reliable way to earn money is by continuously improving their skills and technical abilities [6][8]. - Many people mistakenly believe that enhancing their cognitive skills alone will lead to wealth, but they often end up acquiring knowledge that does not translate into practical financial benefits [6][8]. - Successful individuals often possess a combination of luck and skill, with many achieving wealth by seizing opportunities in their areas of expertise [13][14]. Group 3: Misconceptions about Knowledge and Wealth - High cognitive ability does not necessarily correlate with financial success; many knowledgeable individuals struggle financially due to a lack of practical skills or luck [8][9]. - Wealth is often a reward for selling products or services rather than a direct result of high-level cognitive understanding [10][16]. - The article highlights that many wealthy individuals may not have deep knowledge but excel in marketing and risk-taking [11][16]. Group 4: Practical Advice for Ordinary People - The article suggests that ordinary individuals should focus on their interests and engage in repetitive practice to improve their skills, which can lead to better financial outcomes [18]. - It emphasizes the importance of taking action based on genuine desire and the need to avoid pitfalls through enhanced cognitive awareness [18].

Investment Strategy & Risk Management - Ineffective opportunity assessment leads to missed chances [1] - Suboptimal position sizing and premature exits result in lost potential gains [1] - FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) driven over-allocation at unfavorable entry points increases risk [1] - Success is partially attributed to luck, specifically recovering from initial losses [1] Trading Psychology - Trading behavior mirrors poker playing, highlighting the influence of psychological factors [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the relationship between wealth, skills, and cognitive ability, emphasizing that for most ordinary people, the primary way to earn money is through selling their skills and time rather than relying solely on cognitive enhancement [8][12][24] - It highlights the societal stratification in terms of income generation, where the lowest tier sells pure time, the middle tier sells skills along with time, and the top tier engages in high-risk, high-reward activities [2][3][4] - The article suggests that many individuals mistakenly believe that enhancing their cognitive abilities will directly lead to wealth, while in reality, practical skills and the ability to sell are more crucial [17][24][25] Group 2 - The text points out that a significant number of people with high cognitive abilities still struggle financially due to a lack of practical skills or luck, indicating that cognitive enhancement alone is insufficient for financial success [12][26] - It mentions that many wealthy individuals often rely on marketing and risk-taking rather than deep knowledge, suggesting that practical experience and the ability to sell are more valuable in the marketplace [18][24] - The article concludes that for ordinary people, the best approach to achieving success is through passion and repetition, which can lead to skill improvement and increased opportunities [29][31]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of luck through the lens of survival stories, particularly focusing on the recent plane crash in India where one passenger survived against all odds [12][21][23]. Group 1: Plane Crash Incident - On June 12, a plane crash in India resulted in 241 fatalities, with only one survivor, Vishwas Kumar Ramesh [2][3]. - The survivor, seated in position 11A, was fortunate as his seat was located in a structurally safer area of the aircraft, which provided a stable point during the crash [15][16]. - Ramesh made a call to his father just before the crash, indicating the plane took off and crashed within a minute [12][9]. Group 2: Luck and Survival Stories - The article reflects on the nature of luck, suggesting it is a complex phenomenon that can lead to miraculous outcomes [24][25]. - It shares historical examples of individuals who survived catastrophic events, such as Yamaguchi Tsutomu, who survived both atomic bombings in Japan [26][30][32]. - Another example is Violet Jessop, who survived multiple maritime disasters, earning her the nickname "Miss Unsinkable" [37][49]. Group 3: Personal Reflections on Luck - The author shares personal anecdotes highlighting moments of luck that could have led to different outcomes, emphasizing the fragility of life [50][51]. - The narrative concludes with a reminder to appreciate the luck that allows individuals to navigate through life's challenges and disasters [54][56].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of luck through the lens of survival stories, particularly focusing on the recent plane crash in India where one passenger survived while 241 others did not [25][57]. Group 1: Incident Overview - On June 12, an airplane crash occurred in India, resulting in 241 fatalities and only one survivor [2][3]. - The sole survivor, Vishwas Kumar Ramesh, sustained only minor injuries and was able to walk unaided after the crash [5][6]. - The crash happened just one minute after takeoff, and the survivor was seated in position 11A, which experts believe provided a more stable point during the impact [14][17]. Group 2: Personal Stories of Luck - The article shares historical examples of individuals who experienced extraordinary luck in life-threatening situations, such as Yamaguchi Tsutomu, who survived two atomic bombings in Japan [28][34]. - Another example is Violet Jessop, who survived the sinking of three different ships, earning her the nickname "Miss Unsinkable" [39][51]. - These stories illustrate the randomness of survival and the concept of luck in the face of disaster [25][57]. Group 3: Reflection on Luck - The author reflects on personal experiences of narrowly escaping danger, emphasizing the role of luck in survival [52][56]. - The narrative encourages readers to appreciate their fortunate circumstances and to maintain a sense of gratitude for each day [56][59].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses how far an individual can go in their career depends on persistence, effort, and the ability to seize opportunities, rather than solely on educational background or initial circumstances [1]. Group 1: Case Studies - Case A: A, a managing director at a London-based firm, overcame a challenging background, including dyslexia and a lack of initial academic success, to rise through the ranks in the automotive sales industry before transitioning to finance and eventually becoming a managing director responsible for multi-million dollar investment decisions [2]. - Case B: B, a Singaporean intern, started from a modest educational background but worked diligently to secure an internship, which led to a position at a fund company and eventually a role in Deutsche Bank's investment banking division, demonstrating that hard work can lead to significant career advancements despite initial disadvantages [3][4]. - Case C: The author, with a higher starting point due to strong academic performance, leveraged educational opportunities to enter a global talent program, which facilitated international experience and career growth, ultimately founding a capital firm in Singapore [5]. Group 2: Common Themes - The commonality among the three cases is the emphasis on long-term persistence and continuous effort, highlighting that success is not solely defined by wealth or fame but by the ability to progress from humble beginnings through hard work and determination [6]. - Each individual's journey illustrates that every step taken, whether it be pursuing further education or gaining relevant work experience, plays a crucial role in achieving career goals, reinforcing the idea that low starting points do not equate to low achievements [7]. Group 3: The Role of Education - The article argues that while education is important, it should not be viewed as the only path to success. The experiences of A and B show that high academic qualifications are not the sole determinants of career success, especially as practical experience and skills become more significant over time [8][9]. - The author emphasizes that a strong educational background can provide more opportunities, but it is the combination of effort, experience, and timing that ultimately shapes career trajectories [10]. Group 4: The Importance of Timing and Luck - The article acknowledges that timing and luck also play critical roles in career success, as seen in the favorable economic conditions during the author's and A's career advancements, which provided them with opportunities that may not be available in different circumstances [11]. - The conclusion suggests that success is a product of sustained effort over time, combined with a bit of luck, reinforcing the idea that gradual progress can lead to significant achievements [12].

以下文章来源于聪明投资者 ，作者聪明投资者 聪明投资者 . 聚焦优秀投资人和企业家，甄选高质量的内容，追求可累进的成长。更多内容可下载"聪明投资 者"APP，官网：www.cmtzz.cn 来源 | 聪明投资者 预计阅读时间：21分钟 " 运 气 ， 就 是 当 机 会 来 了 ， 你 刚 好 已 经 准 备 好 了 。 " 这是橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯（Howard Marks）在最近的《Money Ma》访谈中，引人 深思的一句话。 他并不回避运气在投资中的作用，甚至直言自己是"世界上最幸运的人"。但他强调，运气并不是毫 无缘由的，而是建立在持续准备的基础上。 霍华德回顾了自己的职业生涯：从1969年进入花旗银行，到意外被调入债券部门，再到最终创立橡 树资本，都是非常幸运的过程。 他认为，市场中的机会并不会主动降临到你身上，而是你要让自己站在正确的位置，做好准备，等 机会到来时能够抓住它。 "你不能预测未来，但你可以为不同的可能性做好准备。" 这就是他对投资的理解：市场是不可预测，而投资者可以通过纪律、研究和思维框架，为各种情境 构建一个稳健的投资策略。 霍华德多次强调，投资并不是寻找绝对确定性的 ...

Group 1 - The core idea of the article emphasizes the importance of being prepared to seize opportunities when they arise, as luck plays a significant role in investment success [1][81]. - Howard Marks reflects on his career journey, highlighting that his unexpected transitions, such as moving from the stock department to the bond department, were pivotal moments that shaped his investment approach [11][84]. - The article discusses the unpredictability of markets and the necessity for investors to develop robust strategies that account for various potential scenarios rather than seeking absolute certainty [2][46]. Group 2 - Marks shares insights from Warren Buffett's investment philosophy, stressing the importance of focusing on a few critical factors rather than trying to know everything [3][96]. - The discussion includes the challenges of determining when to sell investments, with Marks noting that the real difficulty lies in maintaining conviction during periods of underperformance [15][22]. - The article highlights the cyclical nature of markets, driven by human emotions such as greed and fear, which create opportunities for astute investors [30][32]. Group 3 - Marks emphasizes the need for "intellectual humility," advocating for an acknowledgment of uncertainty in investment decisions and the importance of being open to differing viewpoints [34][42]. - The article critiques the notion of a "silver bullet" investment strategy, particularly in the context of private equity, suggesting that past successes may not be replicable in changing market conditions [49][60]. - Marks identifies three key factors for successful investing: the ability to interpret information at a higher level, understanding qualitative factors, and having foresight about future developments [63][71]. Group 4 - The article discusses the significant fiscal challenges facing the U.S., particularly the persistent budget deficits and the implications for future economic stability [98][104]. - Marks expresses skepticism about the sustainability of America's exceptionalism in the global economic landscape, suggesting that while the U.S. has advantages, the likelihood of maintaining its leading position is uncertain [76][80]. - The discussion concludes with advice for young professionals entering the finance industry, emphasizing the importance of pursuing a fulfilling career rather than merely chasing financial gain [114].