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运力之争,全球商业航天价值重构
HUAXI Securities· 2025-12-17 12:39
Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the stock price will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 15% or more within six months [56]. Core Insights - The global commercial space launch sector is undergoing a profound cost restructuring, shifting from a one-time manufacturing model to a reusable cost model. Traditional rockets have a hardware manufacturing cost share of about 67%, while emerging commercial rockets reduce this to around 24% through reusable designs [3][27]. - The launch market from 2024 to 2025 is expected to exhibit an absolute oligopoly, with launch service providers monopolizing orders and exerting control over the supply chain [5][42]. Summary by Sections 1. Cost Structure of Commercial Rockets - The cost breakdown of rockets shows that the first stage accounts for 60-70% of total costs, with engines being the most significant component, comprising over 50% of the first stage cost [13][27]. - The Falcon 9 rocket's cost structure indicates that the marginal cost of reuse is significantly lower than that of traditional rockets, with costs dropping to approximately $2,720 per kilogram in reusable mode [27][28]. 2. Industry Chain Benefits from Launch Volume - Launch service providers benefit directly from increased launch frequency and larger contracts, with revenue correlating to the number of launch tasks [4][35]. - The demand for reusable components and high-frequency replacement parts is expected to grow, driven by the need for higher reliability and maintenance of reusable systems [36]. 3. Investment Recommendations - Beneficiary stocks include companies involved in rocket manufacturing and space computing, such as Aerospace Power, Superjet, and West Materials, among others [6][52][53].