2026年01月06日 证券研究报告 | 商业航天深度报告 技术收敛引爆"奇点"，蓝海市场破晓已至 核心驱动力：四大技术收敛引发"成本革命"。本轮爆发的本质不是单一技术的突破，而是运载、制造、载荷、动力四大维度的技术"收敛"，共同推动了成本的指数 级下降。1）运载端（复用）： 垂直回收（VTVL）技术将火箭从"一次性耗材"变为"可复用资产"。发射成本正从航天飞机时代的5万美元/kg，向猎鹰9号的3000美 元/kg，乃至星舰目标的200美元/kg演进 ；2）动力端：液氧甲烷正在取代液氧煤油成为下一代黄金燃料。其不结焦、成本低、易获取的特性，解决了发动机复用后的 维护痛点，是实现高频次发射的物理基础 ；3）制造端（工业化）： 3D打印（增材制造）与车规级材料的应用，使火箭发动机部件减少90%，制造周期从月缩短至周， 实现了像造汽车一样造火箭 ；4）载荷端： 工业级/消费级元器件（COTS）通过软件冗余架构替代昂贵的宇航级芯片，摩尔定律终"上天"，单星造价从数亿元降至千 万元级别； 政策支持、星座组网有望带动国内需求爆发。1）从中央到地方，商业航天迎来发展的政策黄金期；2）中国"千帆星座"与"GW星座"规划总数超 ...

Core Insights - The report from Guojin Securities emphasizes the strategic importance of seizing space resources for China, highlighting the current bottleneck in rocket capacity and predicting that 2026 will be the year of reusable commercial rockets, while also focusing on key stocks in the rocket sector and investment opportunities arising from new 3D printing technologies [1] Group 1: Urgency in Satellite Launches - The limited resources in low Earth orbit necessitate urgent satellite launches, as per the International Telecommunication Union's "first come, first served" rule, which pressures China to accelerate its satellite launches [2] - The theoretical capacity of near-Earth orbit is estimated to accommodate only about 60,000 satellites, with SpaceX's Starlink already having launched over 10,000 satellites and aiming for a total of 42,000, thereby occupying a significant portion of low Earth orbit resources [2] - Domestic plans, such as those from Xingwang and "G60," aim to deploy nearly 30,000 satellites, with a requirement to complete 10% of the constellation within nine years to avoid losing resources [2] Group 2: Cost Efficiency in Rocket Launches - High costs currently limit rocket launch efficiency, making reusable rockets a crucial technology for cost reduction, as demonstrated by SpaceX's Falcon 9, which has reduced costs by 60% through first-stage rocket reuse [3] - The cost of satellite launches in China has decreased from 115,000 yuan per kilogram in 2020 to 75,000 yuan per kilogram in 2024, indicating a trend towards lower launch costs [3] - The U.S. leads in rocket launches due to lower costs, with SpaceX's Falcon 9 having a per-kilogram launch cost of 14,000 to 18,000 yuan, and the U.S. is projected to conduct 158 rocket launches in 2024 [3] Group 3: Future of Reusable Rockets - The year 2026 is anticipated to mark the beginning of the era of reusable commercial rockets, with both state-owned and private companies making strides in this technology [3] - Recent attempts to launch reusable rockets, such as Long March 12A and Zhuque 3, indicate progress in this area, with future launches from commercial entities like Tianlong 3 and Lijian 2 also planned for 2026 [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Rocket Components - The core components of rockets, including engines and structural elements, account for over 60% of total costs, making companies involved in these areas attractive investment targets [4] - 3D printing technology is seen as a key trend in the engine sector, with domestic companies actively adopting it to reduce costs and improve efficiency [4] - SpaceX's Raptor engine, which utilizes 3D printing, has achieved a 21% increase in thrust and a 40% reduction in weight, showcasing the potential benefits of this technology [4]

更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 关注公众号:水木纪要 商业航天的投资逻辑 20260104 摘要 为什么现在是布局商业航天的最佳时机? 行业逻辑已经发生了根本性的变革。过去,商业航天的核心痛点是"星多箭少", 即有大量卫星规划但缺乏足够的运输能力。然而,2025年12月朱雀三号成功入 轨标志着中国商业火箭具备了可靠的运输能力,突破了运力瓶颈。运力是商业航 天的第一生产力,"得火箭者得天下"。我们判断 2025年底至 2026年上半年将 是行业决定性的拐点,有三个关键催化剂会密集落地:长征十号甲、朱雀三号遥 二和天龙三号等可回收大运力火箭集中首飞:中国星网等核心企业启动大规模招 标;马斯克计划在 2026年一季度发射 V3 星舰。 中国为什么要把商业航天上升到战略性新兴产业? 主要有两个原因。首先,地缘安全需求迫切。俄乌战争中,星链系统的实战应用 给我们以警醒,在未来可能的域外作战中,商业航天已成为改变战争规则的重要 手调研究 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 。 、 Q&A 争 ケー 争 狗 - 商业航天战略意义凸显,地缘安全需求和技术卡位是中国将其上升为战略 ● 性新兴产业的关键驱动因素,旨在 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a strong investment rating to the aerospace industry, particularly highlighting SpaceX's potential for significant valuation growth due to its innovative technologies and market positioning [2][5]. Core Insights - SpaceX is projected to achieve 170 launches in 2025 at a cost of $27 million per launch, establishing a robust commercial moat through reusable technology and significant contracts with NASA and other clients [2]. - The Starlink project has evolved into a three-pronged business model of manufacturing, operation, and technology premium, with expected revenues of $15.6 billion by 2026, contributing significantly to SpaceX's valuation [3]. - The development of space data centers is seen as a second growth curve for SpaceX, potentially generating $9.5 billion in profits and adding $332.5 billion to its valuation [4]. Summary by Sections 01 Launch Services: Reusable Technology Constructs Absolute Moat - SpaceX's valuation has increased nearly 30,000 times since its inception, driven by its leading launch capabilities and cost advantages [9]. - In 2025, SpaceX is expected to conduct 170 launches, dominating the global market and significantly outperforming competitors [15]. - The Falcon 9 rocket's launch cost has decreased by 70% compared to traditional rockets, enhancing SpaceX's competitive edge [15][20]. 02 Starlink: From Global Connectivity to Direct Mobile Access - Starlink has become the largest low Earth orbit satellite constellation, with over 10,000 satellites launched, and is expected to generate substantial revenue growth [50]. - The V2.0 Mini satellites have optimized the economic model, increasing bandwidth capacity while reducing costs significantly [50]. - Starlink's business model has transitioned from supplementary coverage to a core operational base, with a focus on high-margin government contracts [56]. 03 Space Data Centers: The Ultimate Solution in the AI Era - SpaceX's space data centers are positioned to overcome physical limitations in AI computing, leveraging the unique advantages of the space environment [81]. - The potential for high energy output and efficient cooling in space could lead to significant operational cost reductions [81]. - The report highlights the challenges of traditional aerospace costs, emphasizing the need for reduced launch costs to make space data centers viable [85].

Core Viewpoint - Chinese commercial aerospace companies, particularly Blue Arrow Aerospace, are rapidly advancing in the reusable rocket sector, traditionally dominated by SpaceX, drawing attention from Elon Musk and international media [1][2]. Group 1: Company Developments - Blue Arrow Aerospace became the first Chinese company to conduct reusable rocket tests, aiming to become the second-largest player in this field after SpaceX [1]. - The company’s Zhuque-3 rocket experienced a setback during the first stage recovery but is viewed as a significant step in China's space exploration efforts [1][6]. - The CEO of Blue Arrow, Dai Zheng, emphasized that the failure was part of a learning process and not a definitive setback, highlighting the experimental nature of the launch [1][7]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - Blue Arrow aims to provide low-cost launch solutions similar to SpaceX's Falcon 9, which is crucial for China's plan to deploy up to 10,000 satellites in the coming decades [2][6]. - The company is reportedly preparing for an IPO on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, potentially ahead of SpaceX, which is still speculated to be preparing for its own IPO [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Context and Future Outlook - The Chinese commercial space market is projected to grow by 8.3% in 2024, reaching approximately 713.32 billion yuan, indicating a robust industry outlook [6]. - Government initiatives, including the establishment of the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund, are expected to provide significant support to the aerospace sector, enhancing investment in early-stage projects [6]. - Despite setbacks, the Zhuque-3 rocket's second stage successfully completed a 1400-second glide, laying the groundwork for future improvements in payload capacity [7].

2025年，中国商业航天产业正站在一个关键的发展路口，与过去依靠国家重大工程牵引的模式不同，这一轮增长由企业主动推进、市场竞争驱动，并获得了 国家层面持续且有力的政策支持。近两年，"商业航天"连续被写入政府工作报告，"航天强国"更是首次成为官方文件的核心词汇，标志着该行业已上升到国 家战略的高度。去年11月，国家航天局专门成立了"商业航天司"，对发射许可、频率轨道、经营资质等关键环节实施统一管理，为企业大规模、规范化参与 产业链建设奠定了制度基础。 如今的商业航天是一条覆盖火箭卫星研发制造、发射服务、星座组网，以及下游各类应用场景的完整产业链。过去十年间，中国航天在基础设施、技术路线 和市场准入等方面发生了根本性变化，涌现出一大批专注于卫星制造、测控运营与数据服务的新兴企业。 一、频率与轨位 随着全球卫星互联网建设进入白热化阶段，有限的轨道位置和通信频率已成为各国争相抢占的战略资源。国际通行的规则是"先到先得"，谁先发射卫星并实 际使用，谁就拥有优先权。美国太空探索技术公司（SpaceX）主导的"星链"计划，三期总共规划了4.2万颗卫星，到2025年已成功发射超过1万颗，可谓是遥 遥领先。 相比之下，中国正在 ...

Group 1: Equity Market - The U.S. follows a "private sector-led, government-assisted" approach, where the government acts as an "angel investor" and major customer, while companies drive their own growth [8] - SpaceX is highlighted as a leading player, with its Falcon 9 rocket achieving high recovery rates and the Starlink project amassing over 8 million users, showcasing its strong revenue potential [8][9] Group 2: Commercial Space Race - In the U.S., private companies like Blue Origin and Rocket Lab are competing in the commercial space sector, with Blue Origin focusing on space tourism and Rocket Lab targeting the small satellite market [10] - In China, state-owned enterprises lead the way in commercial space, with China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) and China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation (CASIC) playing pivotal roles in various space missions and innovations [11] - The private sector in China is also emerging, with companies like Blue Arrow Aerospace and Tianbing Technology developing reusable rockets and innovative propulsion systems [12][13] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Challenges - Key areas of focus include reusable rockets, satellite internet, and AI-enabled space computing, which are seen as crucial for reducing costs and expanding market opportunities [14] - Challenges include the stability of reusable rocket technology and the need for breakthrough applications to create a commercial ecosystem in the space industry [14] Group 4: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market shows positive momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.47% and a total trading volume of 1.92 trillion yuan, indicating strong investor sentiment [15] Group 5: Macro and Fixed Income - The bond market is characterized by strong short-term bonds, with the 10-year government bond yield at 1.837% [16] - The central bank's operations include a net injection of 1 trillion yuan through MLF, ensuring ample liquidity in the market [16] Group 6: International Relations and Currency - The U.S. has announced the end of its trade investigation into Chinese chips, which is expected to ease trade tensions and positively impact the technology sector [16] - The Chinese yuan is strengthening, nearing the 7.0 mark against the dollar, supported by strong trade surpluses and favorable economic conditions [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the advancements in China's commercial space industry, particularly with the upcoming maiden flight of the Tianlong-3 reusable rocket, which boasts a length of 72 meters and a near-Earth orbit capacity of 17 tons, marking significant improvements over competitors like the Zhuque-3 and Long March 12A rockets [1][2] - The Tianlong-3's specifications indicate a breakthrough in heavy rocket manufacturing and reusable technology, with its 17-ton capacity approaching international standards, such as SpaceX's Falcon 9, which has a capacity of approximately 23 tons [1] - The recent progress of other reusable rockets, such as Zhuque-3 and Long March 12A, reflects an industry-wide verification phase, accelerating the iteration of domestic reusable rocket technology and promoting upgrades in core components like rocket structure, engines, and control systems [1] Group 2 - The Chinese government has emphasized the goal of becoming a "space power" in its 14th Five-Year Plan, with expectations for a series of policies to be introduced in the aerospace sector [2] - The commercial space industry in China has seen a significant increase in launch activities, with nearly 90 launches completed this year, indicating a rapid development phase for the domestic commercial space sector [2] - Projections suggest that the global commercial space market will exceed $700 billion by 2025, while China's market is expected to reach 2.8 trillion yuan, highlighting the growth potential in this sector [2] - The development of reusable rockets is anticipated to lower launch costs, thereby stimulating demand across the supply chain, including high-end materials, rocket engines, satellite internet, and application services [2]

Core Points - The U.S. is initiating the largest militarization of space since the Cold War, with President Trump signing an executive order prioritizing manned lunar missions, establishing a lunar base, and developing space defense systems [1] - The executive order aims for a manned lunar landing by 2028 and a permanent lunar base by 2030, requiring the Pentagon and intelligence agencies to formulate a space security strategy [1][4] Group 1: Lunar Mission Goals - The 2028 lunar landing goal is seen as highly challenging, similar to a previous 2024 directive, with delays in NASA's Space Launch System and SpaceX's Starship affecting timelines [2] - The executive order reinforces NASA's existing goal of developing a long-term lunar base using nuclear energy, originally set during the Obama administration [2] - The Artemis program will mark NASA's first manned lunar mission under this new directive, heavily relying on the development progress of SpaceX's Starship [2] Group 2: Military Satellite Network - The U.S. Space Force's Space Development Agency announced a $3.5 billion satellite order, indicating an acceleration in military space deployment [3] - Four defense contractors will each receive contracts for 18 satellites, enhancing missile warning and tracking capabilities with near-continuous global coverage [3] - This satellite deployment is part of a strategy to launch new batches every two years, with the first batch of 154 satellites expected to achieve initial operational capability by 2027 [3] Group 3: Space Policy Coordination - The executive order restructures the national space policy coordination mechanism, placing it under the leadership of the President's Chief Science Advisor [4] - The National Space Council, previously uncertain in its future, will continue to exist under a new structure, with the President as its chair [4] - The order also calls for the Pentagon and intelligence agencies to develop a space security strategy and encourages private contractors to improve efficiency [4] Group 4: NASA Budget and Dual Goals - NASA is facing financial pressures, with a potential budget cut of about 25% from the usual $25 billion, threatening numerous prioritized space science programs [6] - The new NASA administrator supports targeting both lunar and Mars missions, reflecting Congressional pressure to focus on lunar initiatives [6] - Legislative focus has shifted back to lunar missions, despite previous discussions about prioritizing Mars exploration [6]

宁静的夜空下，一场无声的"圈地运动"正以每小时数万公里的速度进行。马斯克的星链卫星如工业流水线上的产品般被送入太空，而地球另一 侧，中国的火箭正以创纪录的频率升空，试图在闭合的窗口前，夺回属于自己的轨道。 2025年12月，中国在19小时内完成了三次火箭发射，创造了国家发射频率的新纪录。 根据欧洲空间局的数据，截至2025年7月，全球在轨活跃卫星数量已突破1.2万颗。而在这片新大陆上，美国以约10490颗卫星占据绝对主导，其中 仅马斯克的SpaceX公司就部署了超过8000颗星链卫星。 同一时期，中国的在轨卫星数量约为951颗，两国在轨资产数量呈现出"上万颗对数百颗"的直观差距。 太空"新大陆" 低地球轨道，这片距地表仅数百至两千公里的空域，正成为人类争夺的"新大陆"。这片领域的资源遵循着最原始的"先登先占"法则。 低轨道资源的总容量约为6万颗卫星。截至2025年初，利用率已近两成。这意味着超过80%的资源理论上仍处于空白，但优质轨道和频率正被快速 瓜分。 马斯克的星链计划规划了4.2万颗卫星，已占据了大量优质低轨道位。SpaceX平均每周发射一批次卫星，每次部署数十颗，其卫星制造成本已降至 50万美元以下， ...