机构：中金公司 研究员：蒋菱钢/林思婕/查玉洁 潜在催化剂：国内同店恢复表现超预期，国内开店进展超预期。 盈利预测与估值 我们预计公司25~27 年EPS 分别为0.61/0.68/0.8 元，25~27 年CAGR 为15%。当前对应26 年P/E 12 倍。 首次覆盖给予跑赢行业评级，目标价11.6 港元，对应26 年P/E 15 倍，上行空间30%。 风险 开店进展不及预期，行业竞争加剧，食品安全风险。 投资亮点 首次覆盖小菜园（00999）给予跑赢行业评级，目标价11.60 港元，基于P/E 估值法，对应26 年15x P/E，按24 年收入算，公司是国内休闲中式餐饮排名第二的企业。理由如下： 门店规模扩张及单店模型优化，进入加速扩张期。1）门店扩张方面，小菜园门店采取全直营模式，截 至2025 年6 月30日，公司一共有672 家在营门店。凭借自有供应链及门店标准化运营等核心竞争力，公 司持续加密国内强势区域及开拓准新市场，我们看好小菜园国内门店扩张潜力；2）单店模型优化方 面，虽然1H25 同店表现承压，但小菜园通过将门店面积从300 平米降至220 平米，实现了租金和人员成 本等各项费用率的下降 ...

Financial Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 835 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.31% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 132 million yuan, up 18.08% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 465 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 13.5%, and net profit was approximately 94.45 million yuan, reflecting a 31.42% increase [1] - Gross margin improved to 27.01%, an increase of 3.22% year-on-year, while net margin rose to 15.84%, up 7.07% year-on-year [1] Key Financial Metrics - The company's operating expenses, including sales, management, and financial costs, totaled 81.55 million yuan, accounting for 9.77% of revenue, which is a 1.37% increase year-on-year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) increased to 0.55 yuan, a rise of 22.22% compared to the previous year [1] - The company's cash flow from operating activities showed a slight increase of 1.18% [3] Asset and Liability Changes - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by 55.49% due to increased dividend payments and investments in financial products [1][2] - Trade receivables increased by 21.03%, indicating a rise in credit sales [2] - The company’s total liabilities decreased by 21.72%, reflecting improved financial health [2] Business Strategy and Operations - The company expanded its franchise and group meal business, contributing to the revenue growth of 9.31% [3] - Cost of goods sold increased by 8.06%, in line with revenue growth [3] - The company has implemented various measures to optimize single-store models, including store upgrades and product structure optimization, which have shown positive results in revenue recovery [5] Market Position and Future Outlook - Analysts expect the company's performance in 2025 to reach 286 million yuan, with an average EPS forecast of 1.19 yuan [4] - The company has a historical median Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 14.78%, indicating a solid investment return [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Hunan Mingming Hen Mang Commercial Chain Co., Ltd., has officially submitted its application for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking its entry into the capital market and highlighting its rapid growth in the snack retail sector [1]. Group 1: Company Growth - Established in 2017 in Changsha, the company has focused on lower-tier cities, avoiding fierce competition in first and second-tier cities, and has rapidly expanded its store count to over 14,180 by the end of 2024, with annual revenue nearing 5 billion yuan [2][6]. - The company employs a franchise model, with 97.4% of its stores being franchises, allowing for low investment thresholds and quick returns, appealing to many small-town entrepreneurs [6]. - Targeting the 18-35 age demographic, the company has successfully attracted price-sensitive consumers who seek value for money, contributing to its rise as a significant player in the new consumption landscape [6]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - The snack retail industry has shifted from a blue ocean to a red ocean, with increased competition from brands like Laiyoupin and Haoxianglai, leading to challenges such as high growth versus low barriers to entry, management difficulties, and price sensitivity versus margin compression [7][9][10][12]. - The industry faces issues of product homogeneity and lack of brand loyalty, making it difficult for companies to maintain customer retention once price advantages diminish [9]. Group 3: Future Growth Strategies - The IPO is seen as a pivotal moment for the company, transitioning from rapid expansion to a focus on sustainable growth and profitability, emphasizing the need for a robust operational framework [13]. - Developing proprietary brands is crucial for enhancing profit margins and brand recognition, although it requires significant investment in research, marketing, and quality control [15]. - The company plans to expand its logistics network to improve supply chain efficiency and ensure stable product availability across its extensive store network [16]. - Optimizing store performance by enhancing operational efficiency and customer experience is essential for future growth, shifting focus from quantity to quality [17]. Group 4: Long-term Perspective - The snack business is fundamentally a long-term endeavor that tests product quality, supply chain management, and organizational capabilities [18]. - The company's journey from rapid franchise expansion to building a strong brand and operational capabilities is critical for its success in the capital market and beyond [18].