Core Viewpoint - The influx of southbound capital into Hong Kong stocks has accelerated significantly in 2024, reaching a record high for the first half of the year, which has driven the Hong Kong market to outperform global indices [1][2]. Group 1: Capital Inflow and Market Performance - Southbound capital has net inflows exceeding 730 billion HKD in the first half of 2024, marking the highest level for this period in history and nearing the total for the entire previous year [1]. - The Hang Seng Index rose by 20% in the first half of 2024, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1]. - The sectors attracting the most southbound capital include banking, telecommunications, energy, technology, new consumption, and pharmaceuticals [1][2]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The top three sectors receiving southbound capital inflows in the first half of 2024 were non-essential consumer goods (approximately 213.4 billion HKD), financials (about 177 billion HKD), and healthcare (around 82.9 billion HKD) [2]. - Notable stock performances include Pop Mart, which surged by 199%, and the construction bank, which increased by 31% [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Valuation - The southbound capital's influence has led to a significant improvement in liquidity in the Hong Kong market, narrowing the liquidity gap with the A-share market [3]. - The AH premium index has reached a low of 126.91 points, indicating a shift in market valuation dynamics [3]. - Southbound capital is increasingly concentrated in small-cap and high-dividend stocks, with over 30% ownership in certain stocks [3]. Group 4: Institutional Investment Trends - A survey indicated that 63% of institutions plan to increase their investment in Hong Kong stocks in 2025, primarily through the Stock Connect program [4]. - Hong Kong is the preferred market for overseas investments, accounting for 51% of the total overseas investment balance [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The Hong Kong market is seen as a hub for innovative consumer upgrade targets and leading hard-tech companies, with valuations still at mid-to-low levels compared to global markets [5]. - There is an expectation for continued valuation improvement in the second half of 2024, driven by high-quality companies listing in Hong Kong [5].

截至10:40，恒生科技涨1.52%，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）盘中折价-0.5%。 其中一个重要催化剂是：美国上市的内资企业在退市隐忧下，或寻求在港股寻求（双重）主要上市，以 获得南下资金的流动性支持。 恒生科技成分股方面，阿里健康涨超8%，蔚来、理想汽车涨超3%，美团、京东集团携手上涨近4%。 高盛在报告中提到：预计对潜在美国存托凭证（ADR）退市风险的担忧，可能会加速在美上市的大型 中国公司的回归进程。阿里巴巴在转换为双重主要上市后，获得了200亿美元的南下资金买入，为其他 二次上市公司树立了良好榜样。假设其他符合条件的港股二次上市公司能够效仿，转换为双重主要上市 并被纳入港股通，我们估计这可能会带来170亿美元的额外南下资金买入。 截至4月28日，恒生科技估值为20.90倍（PE-TTM），位于近5年13%分位数，也就是说估值低于过去5 年八成以上的时间。 消息面上，药明康德一季度净利大增89%，点燃医药板块做多热情；此外，美国汽车关税或缓和，汽车 板块迎来喘息机会。 4月29日，节前倒数第二个交易日，港股市场意外迎来反弹。其中，医药、乘用车板块活跃，恒生科技 指数高开后震荡上扬。 资金面也有 ...