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油粕日报:区间震荡-20260206
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-06 09:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and meal industry is "Range-bound oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - For soymeal, although the market's consistent expectation of a bountiful harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened, due to uncertainties in post - holiday soybean auctions and arrivals, as well as weather issues in Argentina, it's unadvisable to be overly bearish. It is conservatively recommended to take partial basis at low points, and the futures market should be regarded as a wide - range oscillation [2]. - For oils, although the US 45Z policy strongly supports US soybean oil, its restrictions on raw material imports prevent the benefits from reaching the domestic market. The market is in a moderately bullish oscillation pattern with limited downside and weak upward momentum [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soymeal - As of January 29, 2026, in the 2025/26 season, the US soybean exports to China (Mainland) were 432.4 million tons, lower than 1812 million tons in the same period last year. The US shipped 80.9 million tons of soybeans to China that week. The unshipped but sold soybeans to China in the 2025/26 season so far are 556.3 million tons, compared with 230.5 million tons in the same period last year [2]. - The drought problem in Argentina is worsening, especially in the central and southern regions. A cold front brought some showers, and the weather pattern in February seems more active, which may help depending on rainfall. Otherwise, the crop conditions will continue to deteriorate, and late - sown crops will face more pressure [2]. - Institutions significantly raised the production estimate of Brazil in the 2025/26 season, and the harvest progress is better than last year. Although there are still local weather uncertainties, the market's consistent expectation of a bountiful harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened [2]. Oils - Indonesia plans to set the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline at 10% in 2028 to reduce gasoline imports and improve energy self - sufficiency. However, due to limited ethanol supply, the plan to increase the mandatory blending has been postponed [3]. - In the 2025/26 season, India's sunflower oil imports will drop by about 10% to a four - year low as the price premium of sunflower oil over other edible oils grows, prompting buyers to switch to cheaper alternatives like palm oil, which may help reduce inventories in Indonesia and Malaysia and support Malaysian palm oil futures prices [3].