1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the oil and meal industry is "Range-bound oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - For soymeal, although the market's consistent expectation of a bountiful harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened, due to uncertainties in post - holiday soybean auctions and arrivals, as well as weather issues in Argentina, it's unadvisable to be overly bearish. It is conservatively recommended to take partial basis at low points, and the futures market should be regarded as a wide - range oscillation [2]. - For oils, although the US 45Z policy strongly supports US soybean oil, its restrictions on raw material imports prevent the benefits from reaching the domestic market. The market is in a moderately bullish oscillation pattern with limited downside and weak upward momentum [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soymeal - As of January 29, 2026, in the 2025/26 season, the US soybean exports to China (Mainland) were 432.4 million tons, lower than 1812 million tons in the same period last year. The US shipped 80.9 million tons of soybeans to China that week. The unshipped but sold soybeans to China in the 2025/26 season so far are 556.3 million tons, compared with 230.5 million tons in the same period last year [2]. - The drought problem in Argentina is worsening, especially in the central and southern regions. A cold front brought some showers, and the weather pattern in February seems more active, which may help depending on rainfall. Otherwise, the crop conditions will continue to deteriorate, and late - sown crops will face more pressure [2]. - Institutions significantly raised the production estimate of Brazil in the 2025/26 season, and the harvest progress is better than last year. Although there are still local weather uncertainties, the market's consistent expectation of a bountiful harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened [2]. Oils - Indonesia plans to set the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline at 10% in 2028 to reduce gasoline imports and improve energy self - sufficiency. However, due to limited ethanol supply, the plan to increase the mandatory blending has been postponed [3]. - In the 2025/26 season, India's sunflower oil imports will drop by about 10% to a four - year low as the price premium of sunflower oil over other edible oils grows, prompting buyers to switch to cheaper alternatives like palm oil, which may help reduce inventories in Indonesia and Malaysia and support Malaysian palm oil futures prices [3].

Core Insights - The report indicates that by 2025, China's energy self-sufficiency rate will rise to 84.4%, with non-fossil energy consumption accounting for 21.8% of total energy consumption, and this is expected to increase to over 23% by 2026 [1][2] - The "Seven-Year Action Plan" will conclude successfully in 2025, achieving an oil and gas production of 420 million tons of oil equivalent, setting historical records [1][2] - China's overseas equity production is projected to reach 196 million tons by 2025, with expectations to exceed 200 million tons in 2026 through enhanced collaboration across the entire industry chain and integration of renewable energy [1][2] Oil Consumption - In 2025, China's oil consumption is expected to be 76.2 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.1%, with a shift in energy structure characterized by a decrease in gasoline and diesel, an increase in aviation fuel, and a significant rise in chemical light oil [2][3] - By 2026, oil consumption is anticipated to stabilize, with a more pronounced trend of "oil decline and chemical rise," where demand for chemical raw materials becomes a new growth driver [2][3] Natural Gas Consumption - China's natural gas consumption is projected to reach 432 billion cubic meters in 2025, with transportation gas usage growing over 10%, and steady growth in industrial and power generation gas usage [2][3] - For 2026, natural gas consumption is expected to be between 450 billion and 455 billion cubic meters, with a forecast of approximately 550 billion cubic meters by 2030 [2][3] Refining Industry - The refining industry in China is entering a plateau phase in terms of capacity, with a self-sufficiency rate for basic petrochemical products rising to 80% by 2025 [2][3] - The industry is expected to continue optimizing its structure, with an anticipated addition of 15 million tons per year in refining capacity and 19 million tons per year in basic petrochemical capacity by 2026, accelerating the transition towards high-end and refined production [2][3]

Core Insights - The company has achieved continuous growth in oil and gas production for three consecutive years, with a projected output of 23.71 million tons of crude oil and 909 million cubic meters of natural gas by 2025, alongside the discovery of over 100 million tons of new reserves [2][3] - Shale oil has emerged as a key growth area, with a production target of 700,000 tons by 2025, marking a significant advancement in China's shale oil exploration technology [2] - The company is also advancing low-carbon technologies, having injected 2.3 million tons of CO2 into its carbon capture, utilization, and storage projects, which have doubled the daily crude oil output to 460 tons [2] - The company's renewable energy investments have reached a total of 572 megawatts of solar power capacity, generating 740 million kilowatt-hours of green electricity, which meets approximately 25% of its oil and gas production electricity needs [3] - The production growth and shale oil breakthroughs reflect China's policy direction towards maintaining energy self-sufficiency, with the company's stable output being crucial for national energy security [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the approval of the restart of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant, marking a significant shift in Japan's energy policy from nuclear reduction to nuclear reliance, amidst public protests and geopolitical considerations [1][3][5] - The restart symbolizes the end of Japan's decade-long de-nuclearization strategy, with a new goal to increase nuclear power's share in the energy mix from 8.5% in 2023 to approximately 20% by 2040 [3][5] - The decision reflects Japan's response to unprecedented pressures regarding energy security, economic costs, and climate commitments, highlighting the need for stable and affordable energy sources [5][6][8] Group 2 - The restart is also a strategic move in Japan's geopolitical landscape, aimed at revitalizing its nuclear industry and enhancing diplomatic autonomy by reducing dependence on external energy sources [8][10] - The operator of the plant, Tokyo Electric Power Company, faces scrutiny due to its past involvement in the Fukushima disaster, making the restart a test of its safety management and public trust [8][10] - Despite the approval, significant challenges remain regarding safety concerns and public skepticism, particularly in a seismically active region like Japan, where ensuring nuclear safety is critical for future policy success [10][12]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia plans to implement a mandatory standard of 10% bioethanol blending in gasoline by 2027 as part of its strategy to reduce fuel import dependency [1] Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Indonesian government is focusing on expanding the use of biofuels made from palm oil and sugarcane to achieve higher energy self-sufficiency [1] - The implementation of the 10% bioethanol blending standard is expected to require 1.4 million kiloliters of bioethanol [1] Group 2: Production and Supply Challenges - The introduction of the mandatory bioethanol blending has been delayed due to supply constraints of ethanol [1] - According to the Indonesian Ethanol Producers Association, the annual production capacity of bioethanol in Indonesia for 2024 is projected to be 303,325 kiloliters, but the actual production is only 160,946 kiloliters, with imports at 11,829 kiloliters [1] - Domestic demand for bioethanol in Indonesia last year was 125,937 kiloliters, while exports reached 46,839 kiloliters [1] Group 3: Alternative Raw Materials - Cassava, corn, and sugarcane are identified as alternative raw materials for ethanol production [1]

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia plans to implement a mandatory standard of 10% bioethanol blending in gasoline by 2027 as part of its strategy to reduce fuel import dependence [1] Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Indonesian government is focusing on expanding the use of biofuels made from palm oil and sugarcane to achieve higher energy self-sufficiency [1] - The implementation of the 10% bioethanol blending standard is expected to require 1.4 million kiloliters of bioethanol [1] Group 2: Production and Supply Challenges - The Indonesian Ethanol Producers Association reports that the annual production capacity of bioethanol in 2024 is projected to be 303,325 kiloliters, but the actual production is only 160,946 kiloliters [1] - The country imported 11,829 kiloliters of bioethanol, while domestic demand last year was 125,937 kiloliters, with exports reaching 46,839 kiloliters [1] Group 3: Alternative Raw Materials - Cassava, corn, and sugarcane are identified as alternative raw materials for ethanol production [1]

Core Insights - Energy security is a crucial component of national security and a fundamental guarantee for sustainable economic and social development [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for a comprehensive energy production capacity of over 4.6 billion tons of standard coal by 2025, which is a key indicator of China's energy security [5][6] Energy Production Goals - Non-fossil energy generation is targeted to exceed 39% of total power generation, with nuclear power capacity reaching 70 million kilowatts and wind and solar combined capacity exceeding 1.2 billion kilowatts [4] - Coal production capacity is to be maintained at around 4.1 billion tons per year, with average coal consumption for power generation reduced to below 300 grams of standard coal per kilowatt-hour [4] - Natural gas production is expected to exceed 230 billion cubic meters, while crude oil production is to stabilize at around 200 million tons per year [4] Current Energy Production and Consumption - In 2024, China's total energy production is projected to reach 4.98 billion tons of standard coal, a 22% increase from 2020 [6] - The share of coal in primary energy production is expected to decrease to 53.2% by 2024, while non-fossil energy production's share will rise to 19.3% [7] - Energy consumption is anticipated to grow, reaching 6.16 billion tons of standard coal by 2025, with industrial sectors being the primary consumers [8] Challenges in Energy Security - China's reliance on foreign energy sources remains high, with over 70% dependence on imported oil and about 40% on natural gas [9] - The transition to a cleaner energy structure faces challenges, including high coal consumption and the need for improved energy efficiency [9] - Energy efficiency levels in China are still below international standards, leading to increased energy demand pressure [9] International Comparisons - China's energy self-sufficiency rate is over 80%, significantly lower than the U.S. (110%) and Russia (150%) [11] - The EU's energy self-sufficiency rate is only 15%, highlighting vulnerabilities in energy security, especially post-Russia-Ukraine conflict [12] Strategic Significance of Energy Security - Enhancing energy self-sufficiency is vital for national energy security and resilience against international market fluctuations [13] - A stable energy supply supports high-quality economic development and strengthens industrial foundations [15] - Transitioning to a cleaner energy structure is essential for achieving carbon neutrality goals while maintaining energy supply stability [16] Societal and Global Implications - Reliable energy supply is crucial for improving public welfare and ensuring balanced energy access across regions [17] - Strengthening the renewable energy sector enhances international competitiveness and positions China as a leader in global energy governance [18] - Achieving the energy production capacity goals outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" is fundamental for national economic security and sustainable development [19]

Core Insights - China's energy self-sufficiency rate has remained above 80% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, ensuring energy security for over 1.4 billion people [3][4][5] - The country has made significant strides in renewable energy, becoming a global leader in wind and solar power installations, contributing to a robust energy transition [6][7] Energy Production and Consumption - China's energy production accounts for over 20% of the global total, with the largest renewable energy system in the world and the largest electric vehicle charging network [3][5] - The energy consumption increased by 9.8 million tons of standard coal during the first four years of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with over 90% of this increase met by domestic supply [5] Renewable Energy Development - The installed capacity of wind and solar power has surged from 530 million kilowatts in 2020 to 1.68 billion kilowatts by July 2023, with an annual growth rate of 28% [6] - Wind and solar power accounted for 18.6% of total electricity consumption by 2024, up from 9.7% in 2020, with wind and solar generation reaching 1.15 trillion kilowatt-hours in the first half of 2023 [6] National Power Market System - The construction of a unified national electricity market has made significant progress, with trading volumes increasing from 10.7 trillion kilowatt-hours in the "13th Five-Year Plan" to 23.8 trillion kilowatt-hours [7] - The proportion of market transactions in total electricity consumption has risen from 40% in 2020 to over 60% for four consecutive years [7]

Core Insights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China has established the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, with the share of renewable energy generation capacity increasing from 40% to approximately 60% [1] Group 1: Energy Supply and Self-Sufficiency - China's energy self-sufficiency rate has consistently remained above 80% during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, demonstrating strong energy supply capabilities [2] - In July, China's monthly electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, equivalent to Japan's total annual electricity consumption [2] - Domestic energy production has accelerated, with over 90% of the consumption increase being self-supplied, highlighting the significant role of renewable energy [2] Group 2: Investment Trends - Energy industry investment has shown robust growth, with annual investment exceeding 4 trillion, 5 trillion, and 6 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 10% of total fixed asset investment [4] - The average annual growth rate of energy industrial investment has surpassed 16%, particularly in the electricity and heat production sectors, which have seen growth rates exceeding 20% [4] - Renewable energy investments are projected to account for over 80% of power investment in 2024, indicating a strong shift towards green energy [4] Group 3: New Energy Development - China's wind and solar power installed capacity increased from 530 million kilowatts in 2020 to 1.68 billion kilowatts by July 2023, with an annual growth rate of 28% [7] - The share of wind and solar power generation in total electricity consumption rose from 9.7% in 2020 to 18.6% in 2024, with a significant increase in the first half of 2023 [7] - China continues to lead globally in wind and solar power installations, with its combined capacity accounting for 47% of the world's total and 63% of new installations [7]

Group 1 - The company is currently valued at a historical low with a PB of 0.75, indicating strong safety margins [1] - The company has a low interest-bearing debt ratio of 6.3%, the lowest among the top eight state-owned construction enterprises, with cash assets of 39.7 billion yuan [1] - The company has consistently generated positive operating cash flow since its listing, with a total of 13.9 billion yuan in operating and investment cash flow over the past five years [1] Group 2 - The company's caprolactam project is progressing smoothly, benefiting from accelerated import substitution and declining raw material prices, which are expected to significantly enhance profitability [2] - The price of key raw materials for caprolactam, such as butadiene and natural gas, has decreased, leading to an estimated profit increase of 298 million yuan due to lower costs [2] - The company is focusing on a "technology + industry" integrated model, advancing several key pilot projects in new chemical materials and specialty chemicals [2] Group 3 - The domestic construction business is benefiting from accelerated investment in coal chemical projects, while overseas markets remain robust [3] - The company is expected to capture a significant share of the coal chemical investment, with projected annual investments of 117.7 billion yuan in 2025 and 210.4 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - The company signed overseas orders worth 113.3 billion yuan in 2024, continuing to grow from a high base last year, which will drive overall revenue and profit growth [3] Group 4 - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 5.7 billion yuan, 6.3 billion yuan, and 7.2 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 7.9, 7.2, and 6.3 [4] - The company is recommended for investment due to the acceleration of overseas large orders, benefits from domestic coal chemical investment, and strong cash flow with potential for increased dividends [4]