油粕市场
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格林大华期货早盘提示:三油-20251027
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 02:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For vegetable oils, with a warming macro - environment and stronger external vegetable oils, domestic vegetable oils are expected to rise. It is recommended to close previous short positions and enter long positions [1][2] - For two types of meal (bean meal and rapeseed meal), macro - conditions are improving and the rise of US soybeans will drive the domestic double - meal to rebound, but the medium - long - term supply pressure increases, so the rebound space is limited, and wait for short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 23, domestic vegetable oils were pressured by sufficient supply fundamentals, but showed resistance on the technical side. The closing prices and daily position changes of Y2601, Y2605, P2601, P2605, OI2601, and OI2605 contracts of soybeans, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are provided, along with price changes [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - On October 27, Sino - US economic and trade teams had their fifth face - to - face negotiation since May this year, reaching a "very substantial framework agreement", and the US "no longer considers" imposing a 100% tariff on China - NYMEX crude oil futures fell on October 24, but the weekly increase was the largest since mid - June - Brazil may not be able to increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% before March 2026, which may reduce the industrial demand for international soybean oil and drag down CBOT soybean oil - If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the palm oil used for blending will reach about 17 million tons, 3 million tons more than the current B40 policy, accounting for about 35% of Indonesia's palm oil production - From October 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 0.4% compared to September 1 - 25 - From October 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.71% month - on - month - As of the 42nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased by 1.45% week - on - week and increased by 14.13% year - on - year [1] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the continuous sharp rise of international crude oil last week and the Sino - US phased easing are expected to boost vegetable oils. The Sino - US negotiation result made US soybeans jump, driving up US soybean oil. However, Malaysia's palm oil is pressured by increased production and decreased exports. Domestically, the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter is sufficient, the oil mill operating rate rises, and consumption enters a seasonal off - season. The main influencing factor at this stage is macro - factors. Macro conditions are warming, and the strength of external vegetable oils will drive up domestic vegetable oils [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Enter new long positions. Provide pressure and support levels for Y2601, Y2605, P2601, P2605, OI2601, and OI2605 contracts [2] - Arbitrage: No strategy provided 3.2 Two Types of Meal (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On October 23, domestic oils fell sharply, and the "buy oil and sell meal" arbitrage was decoded, supporting the double - meal. The closing prices, daily position changes, and price changes of M2601, M2605, RM2601, and RM2605 contracts of bean meal and rapeseed meal are provided [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - On October 27, Sino - US economic and trade teams had their fifth face - to - face negotiation since May this year, reaching a "very substantial framework agreement", and the US "no longer considers" imposing a 100% tariff on China - As of October 20, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in Paraná, Brazil was 52%, and the excellent - good rate was 98% - In September, China's soybean imports reached 12.869 million tons, a record high for the month - The Trump administration may announce a plan to rescue American farmers affected by the trade war and price drops, with preliminary expenditures up to $15 billion - As of the end of October, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 102.2 million tons, exceeding the full - year totals of 2024 and 2023 - As of the 42nd week of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory increased, while the domestic bean meal inventory and contract volume decreased. The domestic imported rapeseed inventory, imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory, and contract volume all decreased [2][3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, Sino - US reached a good agreement, and the market expects an increase in US soybean exports, causing US soybeans to jump. The market is in a wait - and - see mood on Friday, and both long and short positions reduced. The short - term main contract of Dalian meal is consolidating around 2950 yuan. Domestically, the oil mill's one - price increases slightly with the market, the near - month basis weakens locally, and the domestic bean meal inventory continues to decline. Due to poor压榨 profits, oil mills have weak willingness to purchase in the long - term. Feed enterprises adopt a strategy of replenishing inventory at low prices and giving priority to digesting existing inventory; traders face double pressures of cost inversion and slow sales, and the actual transactions are mainly negotiated, with weak willingness to chase the rise. Macro conditions are warming, and the rise of US soybeans will drive the domestic double - meal to rebound, but the medium - long - term supply pressure increases, so the rebound space is limited [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously participate in short - term long positions, the rebound space is limited, and wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium - long term. Provide pressure and support levels for M2601, M2605, RM2601, and RM2605 contracts [3] - Arbitrage: No strategy provided
商品日报(4月28日):聚酯链集体领涨 油粕金属大面积下跌
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 16:05
Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced a weak trend on April 28, with the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closing at 1376.15 points, down 5.55 points or 0.40% from the previous trading day [1] - The energy and chemical sector showed strength, particularly in the polyester chain, with short fibers, low-sulfur fuel oil, and PTA recording approximately 2% gains [1][3] - In contrast, the metal sector continued to adjust, with polysilicon leading the decline, dropping over 3%, while gold and silver fell more than 1% [1][4] Group 2: Polyester Chain Performance - The polyester industry chain maintained a strong performance, with short fiber futures leading the market with a 2.08% increase, while PTA and bottle chips also rose over 1% [3] - Global trade tensions have lessened their impact on market sentiment, and the recovery of international oil prices has supported the stabilization of energy and chemical products [3] - However, there are concerns regarding weak demand in both domestic and foreign trade, leading to increased inventory levels in short fiber factories [3] Group 3: Metal Sector Weakness - The metal sector, including energy metals, faced a collective downturn, with polysilicon dropping 3.05%, and lithium carbonate and industrial silicon also declining [4] - Despite a previous rebound due to production control rumors, the demand for photovoltaic installations has cooled, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances for silicon materials [4] - The overall sentiment in the metal market remains bearish, with expectations of continued pressure on polysilicon prices due to weak future demand and slow inventory depletion [4] Group 4: Oilseed and Oil Market Trends - The oilseed and oil market also saw a collective decline, with soybean meal, palm oil, and No. 2 yellow soybeans all dropping over 2% [5] - The market sentiment turned negative due to downstream resistance to high-priced soybean meal, alongside a retreat in U.S. soybean prices and expectations of increased domestic oilseed supply [5] - In the absence of substantial positive fundamentals, the oilseed market is likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend [5]