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宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20251029
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 01:53
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The overall view for the agricultural commodity futures sector is a mix of weak - side oscillations and no clear trends in the short - to - medium term for most of the main varieties [5][6][7]. - For the short - to - medium term, the market trends of these varieties will be affected by factors such as Sino - US relations, import and supply rhythms, policies, and inventory levels [6]. 3) Summary by Variety **Soybean Meal (M)** - **Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory and weak. The reference view is oscillatory and weak [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: Driven by the expectation of China resuming US soybean purchases, the far - month contracts of US soybeans fell after hitting the $11 mark. The future market trend depends on details of the Sino - US trade agreement, South American weather, and China's actual purchase rhythm. The cost - driven logic has replaced the supply logic in the short - term soybean meal market, and there is a risk of decline after the futures price rebounds close to the upper limit of the oscillation range [5]. **Palm Oil (P)** - **Views**: Short - term: weak; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory and weak. The reference view is oscillatory and weak [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: The overall weakness in the oil market is due to high inventory pressure and weak demand. Malaysian palm oil futures have fallen for three consecutive days, hitting a near - four - week low. The core contradiction in the palm oil market is the significant inventory pressure in Malaysia and weak domestic demand. The macro - level positive of eased Sino - US economic and trade relations cannot reverse the weak fundamentals. The short - term market shows a pattern of strong meal and weak oil, and palm oil futures prices remain under pressure [7]. **Soybean Oil (Y)** - **Views**: Short - term: oscillatory; Medium - term: oscillatory; Intraday: oscillatory and weak. The reference view is oscillatory and weak [6]. - **Core Logic**: Influenced by Sino - US relations, US biofuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6].