Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for Melco International Development Core Insights - Melco International Development's subsidiary, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, reported a net revenue of USD 1.31 billion for Q3 2025, representing an 11.4% year-over-year increase. The adjusted EBITDA reached USD 0.352 billion, up 16.3% year-over-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.9%, an increase of 1.13 percentage points year-over-year [1][9] - The company's total betting amount in Macau reached USD 10.9 billion, a 24.3% year-over-year increase, with VIP betting amounting to USD 5.58 billion, reflecting a 47.0% year-over-year growth [3][11] - The company's market share in Q3 2025 was 14.6%, down from 15.8% in Q2 2025, indicating a decline in market position [6][14] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Melco International Development achieved operating revenue of USD 1.31 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11.4%. The adjusted EBITDA was USD 0.352 billion, up 16.3%, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 26.9%, an increase of 1.13 percentage points year-over-year. For the year-to-date, the operating revenue reached USD 3.87 billion, up 12.3%, and adjusted EBITDA was USD 1.017 billion, up 16.9% [1][9] - The company's gaming gross revenue (GGR) in Macau was USD 1.13 billion, up 11.8% year-over-year, but this growth rate was lower than the industry average of 12.5% [4][12] Business Segments - In Macau, the company's operating revenue was USD 1.1 billion, with gaming and non-gaming segments contributing USD 0.92 billion and USD 0.19 billion, respectively. The gaming segment grew by 12.3% year-over-year, while the non-gaming segment grew by 7.2% [2][10] - The adjusted property EBITDA for the company in Macau was USD 0.317 billion, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 21.1% and an adjusted EBITDA margin of 28.7%, up 2.3 percentage points year-over-year [5][13] Market Dynamics - The total betting amount in Macau increased significantly, with VIP betting showing the highest growth at 47.0% year-over-year. The VIP win rate for the City of Dreams was reported at 3.68%, exceeding the expected range [3][11] - The company's market share has declined, with a noted decrease from 15.8% in Q2 2025 to 14.6% in Q3 2025, indicating competitive pressures in the market [6][14]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of 澳博控股 in 2Q25 fell short of market expectations, with a net income of HKD 7.16 billion, reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth but a 4% quarter-on-quarter decline, returning to 85% of the level seen in 2Q19 [1] Financial Performance - The adjusted EBITDA for the company was HKD 688 million, down 21% year-on-year and 28% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 69% of the level in 2Q19, and was below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of HKD 939 million [1] - Daily operating costs increased by HKD 900,000, representing a 9.9% year-on-year growth and a 4.4% quarter-on-quarter growth, with management expecting future daily operating costs to continue rising by HKD 100,000 to HKD 200,000 [1] Development Trends - 澳博 signed an agreement with 澳娱综合 to acquire 7,504 square meters of space in the 澳门葡京酒店 for HKD 539 million, which is expected to allow the allocation of 25-35% of the satellite gaming tables (458 tables) in the newly acquired area, potentially doubling the number of gaming tables at the 澳门葡京酒店 [1] - Management plans to increase marketing rebate expenditures to compete with peers in Macau [1] - The company is seeking to raise funds through mortgage loans for the acquisition of 澳门凯旋门 and 十六浦 properties by the end of 2025, and will refinance a USD 500 million bond maturing in January 2026 through bank loans [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged, with the company's stock price corresponding to a 10x adjusted EV/EBITDA for 2025 [2] - The target price has been raised by 19% to HKD 2.50, corresponding to an 8x adjusted EV/EBITDA for 2H25e+1H26e, indicating a 25% downside potential from the current stock price [2]