Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its EBITDA forecasts for Wynn Macau (01128) for 2025 to 2027, with a decrease of 4% to an increase of 1%, and has slightly lowered the target price from HKD 7.5 to HKD 7.4, maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] Financial Performance - Wynn Macau's Q3 property EBITDA was USD 308 million, benefiting from an increase in VIP win rate to 4.26%, compared to 2.97% in the previous quarter [1] - If the VIP win rate is adjusted to the theoretical value of 3.4%, the property EBITDA would be USD 285 million, representing a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7% and a year-on-year growth of 9%, aligning with market expectations [1] - The market share of gaming revenue increased by 1.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter to 13.1% [1] Management Outlook - The management of Wynn Macau remains optimistic about the prospects of the Macau gaming industry and the company's business, highlighting strong performance in the high-end market, which supported a double-digit year-on-year growth in gaming volume for October [1] - However, due to the low actual win rate in the mass market, the total gaming revenue growth for October may lag behind industry levels, with an estimated market share of approximately 12% for the month [1] Future Projections - Goldman Sachs assumes a market share of 12.6% for Wynn Macau, and anticipates additional costs due to more events being held at the end of the year, projecting Q4 property EBITDA to be USD 280 million and total property EBITDA for the year to be USD 1.1 billion [1] - The expected decline in market share for October and higher costs in Q4 are likely to limit EBITDA and stock price upside potential [1]

Group 1: Financial Performance - Wynn Macau's operating revenue for Q3 2025 reached USD 1.0 billion, an increase of 14.8% year-on-year[1] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was USD 0.308 billion, up 17.3% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 30.8%, an increase of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year[1][9] - Total revenue for the company as of Q3 2025 was USD 2.75 billion, a slight decline of 0.2% year-on-year[1][9] Group 2: Gaming Revenue Breakdown - Gaming revenue increased by nearly 20% year-on-year, contributing USD 0.86 billion, while non-gaming revenue decreased by 8.2% to USD 0.14 billion[2][10] - The contribution from gaming and non-gaming segments was 85.6% and 14.4%, respectively[2][10] - The total betting amount reached USD 9.54 billion, up 5.9% year-on-year, with VIP, mass market, and slot machine bets at USD 4.28 billion, USD 3.69 billion, and USD 1.57 billion, respectively[3][11] Group 3: Market Share and Competitive Position - Wynn Macau's market share in Q3 2025 was 13.06%, an increase of 1.14 percentage points from Q2 2025[5][14] - The company plans to enhance competitiveness through two key capital projects, including the expansion of the Chairman's Club VIP gaming area[6][14] - The VIP win rate for Wynn Palace was 4.68%, exceeding the expected range of 3.1% to 3.4%[3][11] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include lower-than-expected macroeconomic growth, stricter gaming regulations in Macau, and increased competition in overseas gaming markets[7][14] - Management remains confident in the long-term development of Macau, with capital expenditures projected between USD 200 million to USD 250 million for 2025[6][14]

Revenue Performance - In Q3 2025, MGM China achieved total revenue of HKD 8.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%[1] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 reached HKD 2.37 billion, up 19.6% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 27.9%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points year-on-year[1][5] - Total revenue for the year-to-date reached HKD 25.17 billion, a 7.3% year-on-year increase[1] Business Segmentation - Gaming and non-gaming segments contributed HKD 7.41 billion and HKD 1.1 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of +18.8% and +8.9%[2] - By property, MGM Macau and MGM Cotai generated total revenues of HKD 3.39 billion and HKD 5.12 billion, reflecting year-on-year increases of 11.6% and 21.5% respectively[2] Betting and Revenue Growth - Total betting amount reached HKD 77.45 billion, a 20.7% year-on-year increase, although it declined 10.1% quarter-on-quarter[3] - The company's gross gaming revenue (GGR) was HKD 9.5 billion, up 20.0% year-on-year, surpassing the industry growth rate of 12.5%[4][12] Market Share and Future Outlook - MGM China's market share in Q3 2025 was 15.5%, down 1.1 percentage points from Q2 2025 but up 0.7 percentage points from Q3 2024[6][14] - The company anticipates a visitor increase of 11% during the Golden Week holiday, with a projected 20% rise in gross gaming revenue[6][15] Risks - Potential risks include lower-than-expected macroeconomic growth, stricter gaming regulations in Macau, and increased competition in overseas gaming markets[7][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Sands China [2][6] Core Insights - The company achieved net revenue of USD 1.91 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.6% [3][10] - Adjusted property EBITDA reached USD 601 million, up 2.7% year-on-year, with an adjusted property EBITDA margin of 31.5% [3][13] - The market share of Sands China increased to 23.7% in Q3 2025, up from 22.7% in Q2 2025 [5][14] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are USD 7,395 million, USD 7,907 million, and USD 8,325 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.4%, 6.9%, and 5.3% respectively [6][15] - Gaming gross revenue is expected to be USD 7,034 million, USD 7,471 million, and USD 7,864 million for the same period, with growth rates of 4.2%, 6.2%, and 5.3% [6][15] - Adjusted property EBITDA is forecasted at USD 2,327 million, USD 2,601 million, and USD 2,784 million, with margins of 31.5%, 32.9%, and 33.4% [6][15] Property Performance Breakdown - The performance of individual properties varied, with The Londoner showing a net revenue increase of 49% year-on-year, while The Venetian and The Parisian experienced declines [3][11] - The net revenue contributions from properties were as follows: The Venetian and The Londoner at USD 690 million each, The Parisian at USD 220 million, Plaza at USD 210 million, and Sands at USD 70 million [3][11] Market Share and Competitive Position - Sands China continues to hold the leading market share in Macau, benefiting from its large-scale casinos and convention centers [6][15] - The company’s gaming gross revenue reached USD 1.84 billion, up 9.2% year-on-year, although this growth was below the industry average of 12.5% [4][12]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of 澳博控股 in 2Q25 fell short of market expectations, with a net income of HKD 7.16 billion, reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth but a 4% quarter-on-quarter decline, returning to 85% of the level seen in 2Q19 [1] Financial Performance - The adjusted EBITDA for the company was HKD 688 million, down 21% year-on-year and 28% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 69% of the level in 2Q19, and was below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of HKD 939 million [1] - Daily operating costs increased by HKD 900,000, representing a 9.9% year-on-year growth and a 4.4% quarter-on-quarter growth, with management expecting future daily operating costs to continue rising by HKD 100,000 to HKD 200,000 [1] Development Trends - 澳博 signed an agreement with 澳娱综合 to acquire 7,504 square meters of space in the 澳门葡京酒店 for HKD 539 million, which is expected to allow the allocation of 25-35% of the satellite gaming tables (458 tables) in the newly acquired area, potentially doubling the number of gaming tables at the 澳门葡京酒店 [1] - Management plans to increase marketing rebate expenditures to compete with peers in Macau [1] - The company is seeking to raise funds through mortgage loans for the acquisition of 澳门凯旋门 and 十六浦 properties by the end of 2025, and will refinance a USD 500 million bond maturing in January 2026 through bank loans [1] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The adjusted EBITDA forecasts for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged, with the company's stock price corresponding to a 10x adjusted EV/EBITDA for 2025 [2] - The target price has been raised by 19% to HKD 2.50, corresponding to an 8x adjusted EV/EBITDA for 2H25e+1H26e, indicating a 25% downside potential from the current stock price [2]

Core Viewpoint - The acquisition of a property by 澳博控股 (00880) through its subsidiary 澳娱综合 is aimed at expanding its operations and enhancing its competitive position in the Macau gaming market, with a purchase price of HKD 5.29 billion [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - 澳博控股 announced an agreement to acquire a property that is part of the葡京酒店, with the transaction set to be completed by August 28, 2025 [1] - The agreed purchase price for the property is HKD 5.29 billion [1] - The acquisition will allow 澳娱综合 to expand its existing operations by an additional 7,504 square meters, including former gaming areas and new facilities [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The property acquisition is expected to support the relocation of several gaming tables and slot machines from a satellite casino that is set to cease operations by the end of 2025 [1] - The integration of the property with the new葡京酒店 will create the largest integrated resort on the Macau Peninsula [1] - The board believes that this acquisition will strengthen 澳娱综合's footprint and competitive position in the Macau market, aligning with its long-term strategy to optimize operational synergies and capitalize on growth opportunities in the Macau gaming sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - 澳博控股 announced the acquisition of a property from its controlling shareholder, 澳娱, for 529 million HKD, aimed at expanding its gaming operations and enhancing its competitive position in the Macau market [1] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The property, part of the葡京酒店, has a total usable area of approximately 7,504 square meters, representing 100/1,617 of the total area of the hotel [1] - The acquisition price is set at 529 million HKD, with plans to utilize the property to expand existing gaming operations [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - The acquisition will allow 澳娱综合 to further scale and integrate its operations in the Macau Peninsula, enhancing its brand presence and service offerings to VIP and mass market customers [1] - The board believes this acquisition will strengthen 澳娱综合's footprint and competitive position in the Macau market, aligning with its long-term strategy to optimize operational synergies and capitalize on growth opportunities in the gaming sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Galaxy Entertainment's Q2 2025 financial results show strong recovery in gaming operations, driven by the concert economy, but stock performance was muted due to profit-taking and operational pressures at the StarWorld Hotel [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Q2 2025 gaming gross gaming revenue (GGR) reached HKD 12 billion, up 16% year-on-year and 10% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 82% of Q2 2019 levels [1]. - VIP gaming revenue was HKD 2.4 billion, up 73% year-on-year and 22% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 33% of Q2 2019 levels [1]. - Mass gaming revenue was HKD 8.8 billion, up 6% year-on-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 130% of Q2 2019 levels [1]. - Slot machine revenue was HKD 800 million, up 19% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 139% of Q2 2019 levels [1]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was HKD 3.6 billion, up 12% year-on-year and 8% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 82% of Q2 2019 levels [1]. Group 2: Entertainment and Customer Traffic - In the first half of 2025, Galaxy hosted 190 entertainment, sports, and exhibition events, resulting in a 65% year-on-year increase in customer traffic [2]. - Notable events included the World Table Tennis Championships and concerts by major artists, leading to a peak daily visitor count of 123,000 [2]. - The company is advancing the upgrade of the StarWorld Hotel and the construction of Phase IV in Cotai, which will feature a theater, water park, and family-friendly facilities, expected to open in 2027 [2]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Valuation - The entertainment momentum is expected to continue into the second half of 2025, with various events planned that could enhance customer traffic across the Cotai area [3]. - The target price for Galaxy has been raised to HKD 49.5, reflecting a valuation premium due to its strong market position and diversified non-gaming offerings [3]. - GGR forecasts for 2025-2027 have been increased by 1.6%, 5.6%, and 2.7% to HKD 459 billion, HKD 529 billion, and HKD 568 billion respectively [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a positive outlook for Galaxy Entertainment, indicating confidence in its long-term prospects with an interim dividend of HKD0.70 per share, reflecting a dividend payout ratio of 58% [5][12]. Core Insights - Galaxy Entertainment reported a net revenue of HKD12.04 billion for Q2 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7.5% [2][7]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 reached HKD3.57 billion, up 12.4% year-on-year, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 29.6%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [4][11]. - The company's market share increased to 20.2% in Q2 2025, up from 19.5% in Q1 2025, indicating a strengthening position in the market [5][12]. Revenue Breakdown - In Q2 2025, gaming revenue increased by 12.3% year-on-year, contributing HKD9.66 billion, while non-gaming revenue reached HKD1.61 billion, up 8.4% year-on-year [2][8]. - The total betting amount for the company reached HKD119.45 billion, an increase of 18.4% year-on-year, with VIP betting accounting for 46.7% of the total [3][9]. Performance Metrics - The company's gross gaming revenue (GGR) for Q2 2025 was HKD12.01 billion, reflecting an 11.8% year-on-year increase, which outpaced the industry growth rate of 8.3% [10]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Galaxy Macau and StarWorld Macau was HKD3.33 billion and HKD0.3 billion respectively, with respective adjusted EBITDA margins of 33.3% and 25.9% [4][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" with a target price of HKD 49.50 [1][9][12] Core Views - The report highlights the positive impact of the concert economy on the company's performance, with expectations for continued growth in the second half of 2025 [6][8][12] - The company is benefiting from a diverse non-gaming portfolio and is expected to attract high-end clientele with the opening of the Capella hotel in September [6][12] - The overall gaming revenue (GGR) is projected to increase, with adjustments made to the EBITDA forecasts for 2025-2027 [9][12] Summary by Sections Financial Data - The closing price as of August 12 was HKD 40.18, with a market capitalization of HKD 175,783 million [2] - The average daily trading volume over the past six months was HKD 462.68 million [2] Revenue and Profit Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are HKD 43,432 million, HKD 47,205 million, HKD 53,662 million, and HKD 57,896 million respectively, reflecting growth rates of 21.71%, 8.69%, 13.68%, and 7.89% [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be HKD 8,759 million, HKD 10,110 million, HKD 10,504 million, and HKD 11,628 million for the same years, with growth rates of 28.29%, 15.42%, 3.90%, and 10.70% [5] Gaming Performance - The company's gaming revenue for Q2 2025 was HKD 12 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 16% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10% [6] - The breakdown of gaming revenue includes VIP at HKD 2.4 billion (up 73% YoY), mass market at HKD 8.8 billion (up 6% YoY), and slots at HKD 800 million (up 19% YoY) [6] Entertainment and Customer Traffic - The company hosted 190 entertainment and sports events in the first half of 2025, resulting in a 65% increase in customer traffic [7] - Upcoming concerts and events are expected to further boost visitor numbers and spending in the second half of 2025 [8][12] Valuation and Market Position - The report suggests that the company deserves a valuation premium due to its strong market position and diverse offerings compared to competitors [9][12] - The target price of HKD 49.50 corresponds to a 10.6x EV/EBITDA multiple for 2026E, reflecting an upward adjustment from the previous target of HKD 39.50 [9][12]