展望2026年，该行维持预期澳门博彩总收入将增长5%至6%，由中场及角子机收入预计增长7%至8%所 带动，而贵宾厅收入则预计下跌5%。更重要的是，该行预期行业利润将按年增长6%至7%，终于有望超 越收入增速。 摩根大通发表研究报告指，2025年12月澳门博彩总收入按年增长15%至209亿澳门元，恢复至疫情前水 平的91%；数字略低于市场预期的18%，但主要因市场过去逐步上调预期，原先预期为15%。至于2025 全年，博彩总收入按年增长9%至2474亿澳门元，高于该行预期的5%。 股份方面，短期内该行继续看好金沙中国，长期则首选银河娱乐，分别予目标价24.5港元及50港元，均 予"增持"评级。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs upgraded the rating of Kwan Cheung Holdings (03918) from "Neutral" to "Buy" due to confidence in the company's increasing gaming revenue and EBITDA [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Kwan Cheung Holdings' stock rose by 3.07%, reaching HKD 5.37, with a trading volume of HKD 21.02 million [1] - The company is expected to see a 13% year-on-year growth in gaming revenue and a 15% increase in EBITDA for the fiscal year 2026 [1] - The estimated free cash flow yield is approximately 11%, and the dividend yield is around 8% [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The newly opened Dechong International Airport has significantly increased passenger capacity [1] - Flight numbers to Phnom Penh have shown strong growth, with an overall year-on-year increase of 10% to 15%, and a 40% to 50% increase in flights from China [1] - The Cambodian government has recently implemented a visa-free policy for Chinese travelers [1] Group 3: Valuation and Forecast - The current valuation of the company is not considered excessive, with an enterprise value to after-tax EBITDA ratio of 5 times for the fiscal year 2026 [1] - Historical industry upcycle valuations have reached 6 to 7 times [1] - Goldman Sachs adjusted its EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2027, increasing estimates by 34% to 40%, and raised the target price from HKD 3.88 to HKD 7.5 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs upgraded the rating of Kwan Cheung Holdings (03918) from "Neutral" to "Buy" due to confidence in the company's increasing gaming revenue and EBITDA [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Kwan Cheung Holdings' stock rose by 3.07%, reaching HKD 5.37, with a trading volume of HKD 21.02 million [1] - The company is expected to see a 13% year-on-year growth in gaming revenue and a 15% increase in EBITDA for the fiscal year 2026 [1] - The estimated free cash flow yield is approximately 11%, and the dividend yield is around 8% [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The newly opened Dechong International Airport has significantly increased passenger capacity [1] - Flight numbers to Phnom Penh have shown strong growth, with an overall year-on-year increase of 10% to 15%, and a 40% to 50% increase in flights from China [1] - The Cambodian government has recently implemented a visa-free policy for Chinese travelers [1] Group 3: Valuation and Forecast - The current valuation of the company is not considered excessive, with an enterprise value to post-tax EBITDA ratio of 5 times for the fiscal year 2026 [1] - Historical industry upcycle valuations have reached 6 to 7 times [1] - Goldman Sachs adjusted its EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2027, increasing estimates by 34% to 40%, and raised the target price from HKD 3.88 to HKD 7.50 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs upgraded the rating of Goldfield Holdings from "Neutral" to "Buy" due to confidence in the continuous increase in the company's gaming revenue and EBITDA [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The newly opened Dechong International Airport has significantly enhanced passenger capacity [1] - The Cambodian government has recently implemented a visa-free policy for Chinese travelers, which is expected to boost tourism [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - For the fiscal year 2026, the company’s gaming revenue and EBITDA are projected to grow by 13% and 15% year-on-year, respectively [1] - This growth is estimated to yield approximately an 11% free cash flow yield and an 8% dividend yield [1] Group 3: Valuation and Target Price - The current valuation of the company is not considered excessive, with an enterprise value to after-tax EBITDA ratio of 5 times for fiscal year 2026 [1] - Historically, during industry upcycles, valuations can reach 6 to 7 times [1] - The target price has been raised from HKD 3.88 to HKD 7.5, with EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2027 adjusted between 34% to 40% [1]

Core Insights - The report from JPMorgan indicates that Macau's total gaming revenue (GGR) for the first five days of October reached 5.5 billion MOP, with an average daily revenue of approximately 1.1 billion MOP, marking the best performance for the Golden Week in the past five years [1] - However, compared to last year's high base, the year-on-year growth is only 3%, which is below both the bank's and market expectations [1] - Visitor numbers from October 1 to 5 remained flat, further hindering GGR growth, as a typhoon caused a 25% drop in visitor numbers on October 5 [1] Revenue Forecast - Despite the seemingly weak growth momentum, the bank is not concerned, as this year's holiday is longer, suggesting that stronger demand will emerge in the latter half of the Golden Week [1] - The typhoon may actually enhance this trend, as it disrupted ferry and flight services for about half a day [1] - The bank anticipates that GGR for the second week of October will see a year-on-year growth in the mid-to-high double digits, reaching approximately 750 million MOP per day [1] - The full month forecast remains unchanged, with an expected year-on-year GGR growth of 11% to 13%, totaling 23 billion MOP, which would be the highest in six years [1]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley reports that Macau's total gaming revenue (GGR) for the first 24 days of August reached 17.65 billion MOP, with an average daily revenue of 735 million MOP [1] - The average daily revenue increased by 9% to 793 million MOP compared to the previous week, and is higher than the average of 710 million MOP for the first 17 days of August and 714 million MOP in July, marking the highest record since the pandemic outside of peak periods [1] - Both VIP and mass market segments have seen a year-on-year growth of 10% to 15%, recovering to 30% and 125% of pre-pandemic levels respectively [1] - The bank anticipates that total gaming revenue for August will grow by 11% to 14%, reaching between 21.9 billion to 22.5 billion MOP, potentially breaking post-pandemic records again [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its forecast for the Macau gaming industry for the third time in three months, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1] Group 1: Company Ratings and Target Prices - Galaxy Entertainment's target price has been raised from HKD 42 to HKD 53, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - MGM China’s target price increased from HKD 15 to HKD 23, also with an "Overweight" rating [1] - Sands China’s target price has been adjusted from HKD 18 to HKD 24.5, retaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - SJM Holdings' target price rose from HKD 2.2 to HKD 3, with a "Neutral" rating [1] - Melco International's target price increased from HKD 2.6 to HKD 4.5, but the rating is "Underweight" [1] Group 2: Industry Growth Projections - The total gaming revenue (GGR) is projected to grow by 13% in the second half of 2025, with a 4% increase in the first half [1] - Strong cash flow is expected to drive accelerated EBITDA growth, with forecasts of a 12% increase in Q3 and a 16% increase in Q4, surpassing market expectations [1] - Continuous positive revisions and normalization of price-to-earnings multiples suggest a potential average stock price increase of approximately 35% for the industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has upgraded its forecast for the Macau gaming industry for the third time in three months, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [1] Company Summaries - Galaxy Entertainment's target price has been raised from HKD 42 to HKD 53, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - MGM China’s target price increased from HKD 15 to HKD 23, also with an "Overweight" rating [1] - Sands China’s target price has been adjusted from HKD 18 to HKD 24.5, retaining an "Overweight" rating [1] - SJM Holdings' target price rose from HKD 2.2 to HKD 3, with a "Neutral" rating [1] - Melco International's target price increased from HKD 2.6 to HKD 4.5, but the rating is "Underweight" [1] Industry Insights - The total gaming revenue (GGR) is projected to grow by 13% in the second half of 2025, with a 4% increase in the first half [1] - Strong cash flow is expected to drive EBITDA growth, with forecasts of a 12% increase in Q3 and a 16% increase in Q4, surpassing market expectations [1] - Continuous positive revisions and normalization of price-to-earnings multiples suggest a potential average stock price increase of approximately 35% for the industry [1]