花旗发表研报指，虽然预期澳门博彩行业EBITDA于去年第四季按年增长14%，但预计金沙中国期内 EBITDA仅增长8%，主要由于去年10月的NBA中国赛及11月全运会所带来的额外营运开支。花旗认 为，金沙中国潜在的EBITDA增长低于行业平均水平，短期内可能令股价走低，予该股"买入"评级，目 标价24.25港元，纳入30天下行催化剂观察名单。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs upgraded the rating of Kwan Cheung Holdings (03918) from "Neutral" to "Buy" due to confidence in the company's increasing gaming revenue and EBITDA [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Kwan Cheung Holdings' stock rose by 3.07%, reaching HKD 5.37, with a trading volume of HKD 21.02 million [1] - The company is expected to see a 13% year-on-year growth in gaming revenue and a 15% increase in EBITDA for the fiscal year 2026 [1] - The estimated free cash flow yield is approximately 11%, and the dividend yield is around 8% [1] Group 2: Market Conditions - The newly opened Dechong International Airport has significantly increased passenger capacity [1] - Flight numbers to Phnom Penh have shown strong growth, with an overall year-on-year increase of 10% to 15%, and a 40% to 50% increase in flights from China [1] - The Cambodian government has recently implemented a visa-free policy for Chinese travelers [1] Group 3: Valuation and Forecast - The current valuation of the company is not considered excessive, with an enterprise value to after-tax EBITDA ratio of 5 times for the fiscal year 2026 [1] - Historical industry upcycle valuations have reached 6 to 7 times [1] - Goldman Sachs adjusted its EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2027, increasing estimates by 34% to 40%, and raised the target price from HKD 3.88 to HKD 7.5 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs upgraded the rating of Goldfield Holdings from "Neutral" to "Buy" due to confidence in the continuous increase in the company's gaming revenue and EBITDA [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The newly opened Dechong International Airport has significantly enhanced passenger capacity [1] - The Cambodian government has recently implemented a visa-free policy for Chinese travelers, which is expected to boost tourism [1] Group 2: Financial Projections - For the fiscal year 2026, the company’s gaming revenue and EBITDA are projected to grow by 13% and 15% year-on-year, respectively [1] - This growth is estimated to yield approximately an 11% free cash flow yield and an 8% dividend yield [1] Group 3: Valuation and Target Price - The current valuation of the company is not considered excessive, with an enterprise value to after-tax EBITDA ratio of 5 times for fiscal year 2026 [1] - Historically, during industry upcycles, valuations can reach 6 to 7 times [1] - The target price has been raised from HKD 3.88 to HKD 7.5, with EBITDA forecasts for 2025 to 2027 adjusted between 34% to 40% [1]

Core Viewpoint - MGM China reported strong Q3 2025 results, driven by increased gaming table bets, with total revenue reaching approximately HKD 8.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.39% [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was approximately HKD 8.51 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17.39% [1] - Adjusted EBITDA was around HKD 2.373 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [1] Market Position and Outlook - CICC's report indicates that MGM China's Q3 2025 performance exceeded market consensus expectations, driven by high-end demand [1] - The total gaming revenue for MGM Cotai and MGM Macau has recovered to 170% and 104% of Q3 2019 levels, respectively [1] - Management anticipates that MGM China will achieve over USD 100 million in EBITDA by October 2025, potentially setting historical highs for monthly revenue and EBITDA figures [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the first nine months of 2025, the company reported a negative net debt of €706 million, indicating a strong cash position [3][16] - Revenue grew by 6.2%, adjusted EBITDA increased by 4.8%, and adjusted EBIT rose by 6.0% in like-for-like terms [15] - Shareholder distributions reached €426 million in the first nine months, with a second scrip dividend announced [4][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Highways revenue grew by 16.4% in like-for-like terms in the first nine months, with adjusted EBITDA up nearly 15.1% [4][5] - The 407 ETR saw traffic growth of 9.4% in the quarter and 6.2% in the first nine months, contributing to an 18.6% revenue growth in Q3 [5][6] - Airports division reported steady performance, with adjusted EBITDA growth supported by commercial upgrades despite a 1.5% decline in traffic [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The I-66 managed lane experienced exceptional traffic growth of 13.2% in Q3 and 8.5% in the first nine months [10][11] - The Dallas-Fort Worth managed lanes showed varied performance, with NTE traffic declining by 3.7% in Q3 while revenue per transaction increased by 14.2% [7][8] - The overall market dynamics in North America are favorable, driving growth in the company's assets [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational readiness for New Terminal One at JFK, with a target opening date of June 2026 [12] - There is an emphasis on demand segmentation to enhance value for users and maximize EBITDA growth [6][7] - The company plans to submit bids for several projects in North Carolina and Tennessee in the first half of 2026, indicating a proactive approach to growth opportunities [4][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the strong performance of North American assets, driven by increased customer segmentation and favorable market dynamics [18] - The company is monitoring the potential impact of the U.S. government shutdown but has not seen significant effects on revenue so far [25] - Future growth is expected to be supported by a healthy construction order book and an attractive pipeline of opportunities [14][19] Other Important Information - The company has a solid cash flow position, with significant cash inflows from dividends and asset sales [3][16] - The adjusted EBIT margin for the construction division was 3.7% for the first nine months, aligning with long-term targets [13][14] - The company is committed to returning €2.2 billion to shareholders through dividends and buybacks by the end of 2026 [17][51] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the potential financial consequences of a delay in New Terminal One? - Delays would result in liquidated damages for the contractor and a delay in revenue perception for the company [22][23] Question: Will the U.S. government shutdown impact Q4? - No significant impact has been observed on the I-66, and bidding processes remain unaffected [25] Question: What drove the Schedule 22 provision reversal in Q3? - Increased mobility and effective promotions contributed to the reversal, with traffic trends performing better than expected [28][29] Question: What is the outlook for pricing increases on the 407 ETR? - Pricing strategies will be announced in November, with expectations for revenue and EBITDA growth [32][33] Question: How is the competitive landscape in contracting? - The market remains rational with increased activity, and there is no significant tightening in competition [38][39] Question: What is the strategy regarding data centers? - The recent acquisition adds capabilities to the construction division, but the company remains opportunistic in the data center space [56]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company reported net operating revenues of $5.3 billion, with consolidated adjusted EBITDA growing 12% year-over-year to $1.1 billion, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.8%, a 170 basis points improvement from the previous year [5][11] - The company raised its full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $4.47 billion to $4.57 billion, reflecting an increase of $445 million or 11% at the midpoint from initial guidance [7][15] - Free cash flow for Q3 was $778 million, totaling $2.16 billion year-to-date, which is a 22% increase over the same period last year [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The USPI segment generated $492 million in adjusted EBITDA, representing a 12% year-over-year growth, with same-facility revenues increasing by 8.3% [5][11] - The hospital segment's adjusted EBITDA grew 13% to $607 million, with same-store hospital admissions up 1.4% and revenue per adjusted admission increasing by 5.9% [6][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened a new hospital facility in Port St. Lucie, Florida, aimed at expanding capacity in a rapidly growing area [6] - Exchange business accounted for 8.4% of total admissions and 7% of total consolidated revenues in Q3, showing a slight increase from Q2 [24][77] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on higher acuity services, which has led to improved margins and strong earnings growth [9] - The strategy includes continued M&A and de novo development, with a robust pipeline for future acquisitions [6][9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the business's performance, citing healthy patient demand and stable operating conditions for 2026 [8][9] - There is uncertainty regarding enhanced premium tax subsidies and their impact on reimbursement and enrollment in exchanges, but management is prepared for various scenarios [8][9] Other Important Information - The company has invested nearly $300 million in M&A activities year-to-date and plans to continue this trend [6] - The company has no significant debt maturities until 2027, providing financial flexibility [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Q4 guidance and utilization expectations - Management has not built in expectations for higher utilization due to exchange subsidies expiring, and they are confident in their capacity to meet typical demand [19][21] Question: CapEx inputs and allocation - The increase in CapEx is focused on clinical program infrastructure and high-acuity service offerings, with specific investments in cardiac care and surgical programs [26][28] Question: Free cash flow sustainability - Management highlighted improved cash collections and operational efficiencies as key drivers of free cash flow, emphasizing a focus on sustainability [30][32] Question: USPI Q4 guidance and growth - The implied Q4 guidance for USPI suggests year-over-year growth of over 8%, which is consistent with historical trends [35][36] Question: Labor environment and inflationary pressures - The labor environment remains strong, and management does not foresee significant changes or inflationary pressures impacting operations in 2026 [39][41] Question: Conifer's contribution and enrollment capabilities - Conifer is performing well, assisting with patient eligibility and enrollment, and is prepared to support potential changes in exchange enrollment timelines [45][47] Question: Service line performance in Q3 - Growth in USPI was driven by higher acuity services, with a noted recovery in GI services, while respiratory and infectious disease volumes were lower than expected [51][53] Question: DPP contribution and estimates for 2026 - The company recorded approximately $346 million in supplemental Medicaid programs in Q3, with $148 million being prior year adjustments [59][60] Question: Capital allocation and buyback strategy - The company remains active in share repurchases and is responsive to market conditions while continuing to pursue M&A opportunities [62][64] Question: Expense management and AI initiatives - The company is exploring opportunities for cost savings and efficiency improvements, including the use of advanced analytics and automation [66][68] Question: M&A environment for ASCs - The company continues to be a partner of choice in the ASC market, focusing on high-end specialties and maintaining a strong pipeline for growth [71][73]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, the company reported net operating revenues of $5.3 billion, with consolidated adjusted EBITDA growing 12% year-over-year to $1.1 billion, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.8%, a 170 basis points improvement from the previous year [5][11] - The company raised its full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance to a range of $4.47 to $4.57 billion, reflecting an increase of $445 million, or 11% at the midpoint from initial guidance [7][15] - Free cash flow for Q3 was $778 million, totaling $2.16 billion year-to-date, which is a 22% increase over the same period last year [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The USPI segment generated $492 million in adjusted EBITDA, representing a 12% year-over-year growth, with same-facility revenues increasing by 8.3% [5][11] - The hospital segment's adjusted EBITDA grew 13% to $607 million, with same-store hospital admissions up 1.4% and revenue per adjusted admission increasing by 5.9% [6][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported that exchange admissions accounted for 8.4% of total admissions and 7% of total consolidated revenues in Q3, indicating a slight increase from Q2 [24][77] - The company noted that the exchange business at USPI has less exposure compared to the hospital segment, with exchange patients exhibiting consumption patterns similar to Medicaid [22][72] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on higher acuity services, which has led to improved margins and strong earnings growth over the past few years [9] - The strategy includes continued investment in M&A and de novo development, with a robust pipeline for future growth [6][9] - The company plans to invest $875 to $975 million in capital expenditures in 2025, a $150 million increase at the midpoint over prior expectations [7][15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the business's performance, citing healthy patient demand and stable operating conditions for 2026 [8][9] - There is uncertainty regarding enhanced premium tax subsidies and their impact on reimbursement and enrollment in exchanges, but management is optimistic about a potential compromise [8][21] - The company is committed to maintaining a deleveraged balance sheet and generating strong free cash flow [14][15] Other Important Information - The company recognized a $38 million pre-tax impact for Medicaid supplemental revenues related to prior years in Q3 2025, totaling $148 million year-to-date [13][59] - The company has no significant debt maturities until 2027 and reported $2.98 billion in cash on hand as of September 30, 2025 [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Q4 guidance and utilization expectations - Management has not built in expectations for higher utilization due to exchange subsidies expiration and is confident in USPI's capacity to handle typical demand [19][21] Question: CapEx inputs and allocation - The increased CapEx is focused on clinical program infrastructure and high-acuity service offerings, with specific investments in cardiac care and surgical programs [26][28] Question: Free cash flow sustainability - Management highlighted improved cash collections and operational efficiencies as key drivers for sustainable free cash flow generation [30][32] Question: USPI Q4 guidance and growth expectations - The implied Q4 guidance reflects typical seasonal growth patterns, with no significant changes in business demand anticipated [35][36] Question: Labor environment and inflationary pressures - The labor environment remains strong, with no significant changes expected, and the company is managing inflationary pressures effectively [39][41] Question: Contribution from Conifer and enrollment services - Conifer is performing well, and the company is preparing to utilize its capabilities for potential enrollment needs if exchange subsidies expire [45][47] Question: Service line performance in Q3 - Growth in USPI was driven by higher acuity services, with some lower-than-expected volumes in respiratory and infectious disease areas noted on the hospital side [51][53] Question: DPP contribution and estimates for the year - The company recorded approximately $346 million in supplemental Medicaid programs in Q3, with $148 million being out-of-period [59][60] Question: Capital allocation and buyback strategy - The company remains focused on M&A and de novo strategies while being active in share repurchases, adjusting based on market conditions [62][64] Question: Expense management opportunities for 2026 - The company is exploring various opportunities for cost savings and efficiency improvements, including labor and supply management [66][68] Question: Impact of the WISER model on USPI - The company is preparing for potential changes in pre-authorization requirements under the WISER model, with a capable revenue cycle function in place [80][81] Question: Inpatient-only list removal impact - The potential removal of the inpatient-only list could benefit the USPI segment, but quantification of the impact is still under discussion [85][86]

Core Viewpoint - Wynn Macau's stock has seen an increase of nearly 4%, currently trading at HKD 6.54, with a trading volume of HKD 30.22 million. Citigroup has issued a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 7.2, reflecting a projected enterprise value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) of approximately 7.3 times for 2026 [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - Citigroup is optimistic about Wynn Macau's increasing investment in the high-end mass gaming segment, despite a continuous decline in market share since 2025 [1]. - The completion of the "Chairman's Club" VIP gaming area expansion in the first quarter of next year is expected to positively impact Wynn's market position [1]. Group 2: Market Expectations - The market generally anticipates a year-on-year EBITDA growth of about 7% for Macau gaming operators in the third quarter of this year, while Citigroup forecasts a 17% year-on-year increase for Wynn during the same period [1]. - Wynn Macau has been placed on Citigroup's 30-day upward catalyst watchlist, suggesting potential positive stock price momentum ahead of the company's earnings announcement next month [1].

Core Viewpoint - Roblox is expected to report strong Q3 earnings on October 30, with a significant increase in bookings and user engagement, despite challenges in developing a second revenue stream [1][2]. Group 1: Q3 Performance - Q3 bookings are projected to be $1.805 billion, representing a 60% year-over-year increase, exceeding the guidance of 40%-45% [1]. - Concurrent user count (CCU) is estimated to have more than doubled from the previous quarter, showing a 130% increase, although bookings per user per day have declined by 30% year-over-year [1]. - The game "Grow A Garden" is expected to generate $191 million in bookings for the quarter, peaking in July, while other games are also projected to see a 43% increase in bookings [1]. Group 2: Q4 Guidance - Q4 bookings are guided to be between $1.76 billion and $1.785 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 29%-31% [2]. - Despite a significant slowdown since September, the platform's growth remains strong, with Q4 advertising revenue expected to reach $100 million for the first time [2]. - Q3 EBITDA is anticipated to be $465 million, surpassing the expected range of $350 million to $380 million and market expectations of $390 million [2]. Group 3: Future Projections - Q4 EBITDA guidance is set between $450 million and $480 million, with market expectations leaning towards the upper end of this range [3]. - The increase in DevEx payments is expected to add $18 million to EBITDA in the first full quarter of implementation [3]. - Forecasts for 2025 have been raised, with bookings, EBITDA, and free cash flow expected to grow by 3%, 7%, and 8% respectively, while 2026 bookings are projected to grow by 1% [3].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The grocery consumer industry is experiencing a soft environment, with general consumption down and private label growth being flat across various categories [4][6] - The company has focused on driving cost efficiencies and expects to achieve $250 million in gross cost savings [28][30] - EBITDA growth is anticipated to continue into the next couple of years despite a challenging consumer environment [31][33] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has made significant investments in core categories such as crackers, broth, and refrigerated dough, which are performing well [13][14] - The acquisition of Harris Teas is expected to provide a 4% to 5% benefit to sales, offsetting some volume declines from other categories [42][44] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The private label market has not seen significant trading down, with consumers managing costs by reducing basket sizes rather than switching to private label products [5][6] - Retailers are increasingly focused on optimizing their private label assortments and pricing strategies to enhance profitability [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is prioritizing profitability and cash flow over top-line growth in response to the current consumer environment [27] - There is a strategic focus on fewer, more profitable categories, allowing for deeper expertise and better service to retail customers [16][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the challenges posed by supply chain disruptions and recalls but believes these issues are being addressed through improved capital investment and operational processes [24][26] - The company is optimistic about its ability to navigate the current environment and sees potential for EBITDA growth despite external challenges [31][32] Other Important Information - The company is currently above its long-term leverage target but expects to return to its normal leverage profile by the fourth quarter [62] - There is a belief that the stock price is undervalued, and the company plans to return cash to shareholders if performance aligns with expectations [63][64] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the thoughts on private label's market share? - Management noted that the grocery consumer is currently soft, with private label growth being flat across categories, and consumers are buying fewer units [4][5] Question: How is the company optimizing its portfolio? - The company has focused on core categories where it can offer the best quality and price, leading to better performance [12][14] Question: What are the risks and opportunities for the full year? - The focus remains on execution and cost savings, with potential upside if consumer trends improve [51][52] Question: How is the company addressing supply chain disruptions? - Management indicated that significant capital investments have been made to improve processes and reduce risks associated with supply chain issues [24][26] Question: What is the outlook for the coffee category? - The coffee category is performing well, with consumers showing resilience despite pricing pressures, and there is an opportunity for trade down behavior [57][61] Question: How does the company view its capital allocation priorities? - The company plans to balance capital between investing in the business and returning cash to shareholders, with no major acquisitions anticipated in the near term [62][63]