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油脂数据日报-20250620
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 05:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - Due to the influence of US biodiesel news, soybean oil and palm oil are considered bullish in the short - term. Rapeseed oil is to be put under temporary observation due to the expected easing of China - Canada relations [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Spot Price Data - **24 - degree Palm Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8870, 8820, and 8800 respectively, with price changes of - 30, - 80, and 0 compared to June 18 [1] - **First - grade Soybean Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Tianjin, Zhangjiagang, and Huangpu were 8320, 8400, and 8360 respectively, with price changes of 70, 50, and 70 compared to June 18 [1] - **Fourth - grade Rapeseed Oil**: On June 19, 2025, prices in Zhangjiagang, Wuhan, and Chengdu were 9900, 9920, and 10100 respectively, with price changes of 0, 0, and 20 compared to June 18 [1] 2. Futures Data - **Spread between Main Contracts**: On June 19, 2025, the spread between soybean and palm oil main contracts was - 386, up 48 from June 18; the spread between rapeseed and soybean oil main contracts was 1539, down 80 from June 18 [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 19, 2025, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 540, 17552, and 100 respectively, with no change compared to June 18 [1] 3. Policy and Trade Data - **US Biodiesel Policy**: EPA's expected biomass diesel BBD blending obligations for 2026 - 2027 are 56.1 and 58.6 billion gallons respectively, exceeding the previous market expectation of 46.5 - 52.5 billion gallons [1] - **Indian Imports**: In May, India's sunflower oil, soybean oil, and palm oil imports were 183555 tons, 398585 tons, and 592888 tons respectively, with month - on - month increases of 1.9%, 10.42%, and 84.44%; the total vegetable oil imports were 1187068 tons, a 33.15% month - on - month increase [1] 4. Production and Inventory Data - **MPOB May Data**: Palm oil production was 1.7716 million tons, a 5.05% month - on - month increase; imports were 67900 tons, an 18.32% month - on - month increase; exports were 1.3872 million tons, a 25.62% month - on - month increase; consumption was 327600 tons, a 3.36% month - on - month decrease; and the ending inventory was 1.9902 million tons, a 6.65% month - on - month increase [1] - **June High - frequency Data**: From June 1 to 15, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 4%, and exports increased by 26.3% (ITS data) or 17.77% (Amspec data) compared to the same period last month [1] - **Argentine Soybean Production**: As of June 11, the 24/25 soybean harvest progress in Argentina was 93.2%, 2.8 percentage points behind the same period last year [2] - **US Soybean Production**: As of June 8, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75% [2] 5. Other Factors - **Weather**: Future two - week precipitation for US soybeans is moderately high, and Malaysia's precipitation is expected to be neutral [1][2] - **Trade Relations**: There is an expectation of easing China - Canada trade relations [2] - **Domestic Supply**: In the short - term, the low rapeseed inventory makes the supply of rapeseed oil tight, but the supply may be supplemented in the far - month due to the expected easing of trade relations [2]