研究报告 油脂周报 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】： 本周油脂期价冲高回落，全周豆油 Y2601 合约下跌 0.80%， 以 8190 元/吨报收，棕榈油 P2601 合约下跌 1.09%以 8550 元/吨 报收，菜油 OI2601 合约下跌 1.08%，以 9816 元/吨报收。 市场悲观，油脂冲高回落 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 农产品板块研究员：姚战旗 期货从业资格证号：F0205601 投资咨询资格证号：Z0000286 电话：13609351809 邮箱：445012260@qq.com 【重要资讯】： 7 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 24 星期一 榈油方面：据马来西亚独立检验机构 AmSpec，马来西亚 11 月 1-20 日棕榈油出口量为 828680 吨，较上月同期出口的 965066 吨减少 14.1%。据船运调查机构 SGS 公布数据显示，预计马来西 亚 11 月 1-20 日棕榈油出口量为 471222 吨，较上月同期出口的 793571 吨减少 40.6%。马棕榈油下跌 1.38%。 豆油方面：国际谷物理事会：将 2025/26 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | 研究员： 刘锦 从业资格：F0276812 交易咨询资格：Z0011862 联系方式：13633849418 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 11 月 21 日，美豆油生柴政策反复，印度进口棕榈油数据拉胯，棕榈油破位下跌拖 | | | | | 累连盘植物油整体回落。 | | | | | 豆油主力合约Y2601合约报收于8190元/吨，按收盘价日环下跌0.41%，日减仓20453 | | | | | 手； | | | | | 豆油次主力合约 Y2605 合约报收于 7982 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 0.84%，日增 | | | | | 仓 14567 手; | | | | | 棕榈油主力合约 P2601 合约收盘价 8550 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.11%，日增 | | | | | 仓 9248 手； | | | | | 棕榈油次主力合约 P2605 报收于 8668 元/吨，按收盘价日环比下跌 1.19%，日减仓 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of imported beans has increased, and it is expected that the prices of bean products will bottom out and rebound. Specifically, the price centers of CBOT soybeans, soybean No. 2, soybean meal, and soybean oil are expected to move slightly upward in November, while the price of soybean No. 1 is expected to operate within a narrow range [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 International Bean Market Analysis 3.1.1 CBOT Soybean Market - In 2025, the price of CBOT soybeans fluctuated. It was affected by factors such as USDA reports, South American weather, planting area adjustments, and biodiesel policies. In October, the price found strong support at 1000 cents per bushel and then rallied. It is expected to stabilize above 1100 cents per bushel in November and continue to rise slightly [15][16][108]. - The net non - commercial long positions in CBOT soybeans indicate strong bullish sentiment, and the price is expected to remain strong [19]. - There is a risk of La Nina, which is expected to last until December 2025 - February 2026 and may transition to an ENSO neutral state in 2026 [29]. - The current good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is lower than last year's level, and it is expected that the high - yield estimate of 53.5 bushels per acre will be revised downwards, which will support the price of CBOT soybeans [33]. - The old - crop inventory of US soybeans has decreased, and the new - crop planting area has been reduced. The new - crop supply - demand balance is expected to tighten, which is bullish for CBOT soybeans [40][54]. - The US soybean crushing volume has reached record highs, indicating strong domestic demand [44]. - The US soybean crushing profit has decreased compared to the same period last year, while the soybean crushing profit in Brazil's Mato Grosso state has increased compared to the same period last year. Brazil's soybean crushing profit is good, and the basis is expected to remain firm [49]. 3.1.2 South American Bean Market - Brazil's soybean planting progress is in line with the same period last year, and the harvest area is expected to increase. Brazil's soybean production has been increasing in recent years, which competes with US soybeans. The export potential of Brazilian soybeans is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the supply - demand balance is expected to be more relaxed [62][66][70]. - Argentina's soybean supply - demand balance has tightened slightly this year, and the government's tariff policy has an impact on the international bean market [77]. - The basis of South American soybeans is expected to remain firm due to factors such as reduced export potential in Brazil and good domestic crushing profits [81]. 3.1.3 Global Bean and Oilseed Market - Global oilseed production has been increasing, mainly driven by the continuous increase in South American soybean production [85]. - The US biodiesel policy has uncertainties, and there is a risk that the policy may not be fully implemented, which may affect the demand for US soybeans [97]. - The global soybean supply - demand balance shows that the inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased in the 2025/26 season due to the expected decline in US soybean production and strong demand, which is bullish for global bean prices [101]. 3.2 Domestic Bean Market Analysis 3.2.1 Dalian Commodity Exchange Bean Futures Market - The price of Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) soybean meal has fluctuated. In 2025, it was affected by factors such as US soybean production, South American supply, and biodiesel policies. Currently, the price is supported by increased import costs, but the upward momentum is weak. It is expected to trade in a narrow range around 3000 - 3100 yuan per ton in November [114][219]. - The price of DCE soybean oil has also fluctuated. Although the current inventory is at a historical high, the expected reduction in oilseed imports in the fourth quarter and the slowdown in palm oil inventory accumulation are expected to support the price, and it is expected to stop falling and rise after recent adjustments [8][120]. - The price of DCE soybean No. 1 has been affected by factors such as domestic production, purchase sentiment, and Sino - US trade negotiations. It is expected to operate in a narrow range in November [8][201]. - The price of DCE soybean No. 2 is expected to rise slightly in November due to increased import costs, while the commercial import of US soybeans is not very active due to negative crushing margins [8][209]. 3.2.2 Domestic Bean Supply and Demand - The profit of domestic soybean crushing has narrowed, which may reduce the enthusiasm of oil mills for importing soybeans and limit the downward space of downstream oil and meal prices [129]. - In the third quarter, the arrival of South American soybeans increased, and the inventory of coastal soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil has accumulated. Currently, the export potential of Brazilian soybeans has declined, and the basis is high. The willingness of oil mills to actively import US soybeans is weak due to poor crushing margins [132]. - As of October 24, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 973.1 million tons, the domestic main oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 105.46 million tons, and the national key - area commercial soybean oil inventory was 125.03 million tons [137][141][149]. - The import volume of domestic soybean oil has decreased due to high inventory, and the impact on domestic prices is limited. The import volume of domestic soybean meal is very small and has little impact on domestic prices [152][154]. 3.2.3 Domestic Feed and Livestock Market - The profit of pig farming is poor, the growth rate of the sow inventory has slowed down, the inventory of laying hens has stopped increasing and adjusted, and the demand for soybean meal in the feed industry is expected to decrease in the fourth quarter [164][171][175]. 3.3 Bean Operation Opportunity Analysis No relevant content provided. 3.4 Seasonal Analysis and Market Judgment - Each type of bean product has different price trends and influencing factors in different seasons. Overall, the prices of bean products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, import costs, and policies. In November, it is necessary to pay attention to factors such as US soybean exports, biodiesel policies, and the progress of South American soybean planting [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, Malaysian palm oil production increased as expected and inventories accumulated. Production in September is expected to decline, while the spot prices in the producing areas remain stable. Soybean oil is affected by the expectations of the US biodiesel policy. The short - term market lacks obvious drivers, but the downside support for soybean oil is strong. Chinese rapeseed oil continues to see a marginal reduction in inventories, which supports the rapeseed oil price. There is still uncertainty in the policy as Canada is considering exempting or reducing tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in exchange for China's relaxation of restrictions on Canadian rapeseed imports [5][29]. - The short - term oil market lacks obvious drivers and is in a bottom - grinding stage. It is advisable to consider buying on dips in batches after a pullback. For arbitrage and option strategies, it is recommended to wait and see [31]. Summary by Directory First Part: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Recent Core Events and Market Review - MPOB's August palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August reached 2.2 million tons, production increased by 2% to 1.86 million tons, exports dropped to 1.32 million tons, and apparent consumption increased to 0.49 million tons. SPPOMA data indicates that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 10 days of September decreased by 3% month - on - month, and ITS estimates that exports in the same period decreased by 1% month - on - month [4][5]. - This week, the oil futures market showed differentiation. Soybean and palm oil mainly oscillated and declined, while rapeseed oil oscillated and rose slightly [5]. International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: In August, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 2% to 1.86 million tons, and the ending inventory reached 2.2 million tons, a 4% increase month - on - month. Exports were lower than expected. SPPOMA data shows that production in the first 10 days of September decreased by 3% month - on - month, and it is expected to decline by about 4% in September. ITS estimates a 1% month - on - month decrease in exports in the first 10 days of September. The spot price of Malaysian CPO is oscillating strongly around 4,400 ringgit, and the overall spot price in the producing areas remains firm [11]. - **US Biodiesel Policy**: There were many rumors about the US SRE this week. The news is unfavorable to the supply of US biodiesel, resulting in weaker demand for soybean oil and a downward trend in US soybean oil. The production and blending profits of US biodiesel this year are poor, and the use of soybean oil in biodiesel is lower than last year. The D4 rins price has weakened recently and fell below $1 as of September 9th [14]. Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions in China was 619,300 tons, a 1.51% increase from the previous week. The import profit margin was around - 200 yuan, and there was one near - month purchase this week. After the futures price decline, spot trading increased significantly, with a cumulative trading volume of about 14,000 tons. The short - term palm oil market lacks obvious drivers and will maintain an oscillating trend. It is advisable to consider buying on dips in batches as the negative factors are gradually decreasing [19]. - **Soybean Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China was 1.2513 million tons, a 1.01% increase from the previous week. The basis in East China remained stable at 01 + 210. The soybean import volume in August was 12.28 million tons, and it is expected to decline to about 10 million tons in September. The soybean crush will gradually decline, and soybean oil inventory may start to decrease slightly. Affected by the US biodiesel policy, the short - term market lacks obvious drivers, but the downside support is strong. It is advisable to consider buying on dips [24]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of September 5, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 635,000 tons, a 4.37% decrease from the previous week. The European rapeseed oil FOB price declined, and the import profit margin narrowed to around - 400 yuan. There was a rumor of a rapeseed oil purchase from Dubai this week. The spot market was weak, but the basis and the monthly spread increased. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much. The entry of Australian rapeseed into the Chinese market is still uncertain. Continued marginal reduction in inventories supports the rapeseed oil price. It is necessary to continue to monitor rapeseed and rapeseed oil purchases and policy changes [27]. Second Part: Weekly Data Tracking - The content mainly includes various data charts of international and domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil production, exports, inventories, consumption, and basis, etc., but no specific data analysis conclusions are provided in the text [34][40][45]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The egg futures price is falling. Due to high inventory of laying hens, increased supply of small - sized eggs, and weak demand in summer, the egg price is expected to remain low in the first half of July, but the decline is limited [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold is expected to rise in the long - term, and it's advisable to buy at low prices when it reaches important support levels. Iron ore has a high over - valuation risk, and a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended. Glass market needs real estate stimulus or major policies, and a shock approach is appropriate. Soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short - term, and short - selling with a light position is advised when it reaches the previous high pressure area [7][11][15][19][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Egg Futures - Supply: High inventory of laying hens, increasing number of newly - laid hens, and increased supply of small - sized eggs lead to large supply pressure, and the pressure is hard to relieve soon [3]. - Demand: Summer is the off - season for egg consumption. School holidays reduce canteen purchases, and overall demand is weak and hard to change in the short - term. However, low prices may stimulate supermarket promotions and trader restocking [3]. - Price Outlook: Affected by the leap June, the egg price will remain low in the first half of July. The low - price area has delivery and cold - storage stocking, limiting the decline. Observe the strong support area of 3370 - 3350 for the main egg futures contract [3]. A - share Market - Market Performance: On Monday, the three major A - share indexes opened high and closed low, with only the Shanghai Composite Index closing in the positive territory above 3470 points. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [8][7]. Gold - Market Factors: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduces the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. But the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and it's advisable to buy at low prices when it reaches important support levels [12][11]. Iron Ore - Market Situation: Supply is rising month - on - month, iron - water production is seasonally weakening, and ports are accumulating inventory again. The weak reality increases the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Technically, it shows a trend of rising and then falling, and a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended [16][15]. Glass - Supply and Demand: There is no major cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventory is high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power, so demand is not continuously increasing. It needs real estate stimulus or major policies. Technically, it has been adjusting at a high level for three days, and a shock approach is appropriate [20][19]. Soybean Oil - Market Trend: Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation, soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short - term. But the current supply - demand is not tight, and it will see seasonal production and inventory increase in the medium - term. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is advised [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil prices are supported by a decline in production in Southeast Asian producing areas, and the US biodiesel policy is favorable to the demand outlook for US soybean oil, so it is expected that oils will mainly maintain high - level fluctuations. Pay attention to the MPOB report data this month [3] - Protein meal: Recently, US soybeans have strengthened due to factors such as the possible release of positive signals in Sino - US trade relations and US biofuel policies, driving the continuous meal to follow a relatively strong shock. However, the domestic supply - loose pattern will still put pressure on the upside space, and it is expected that the continuous meal will maintain a shock situation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 7944, 8472, and 9607 respectively, with price changes of - 50, - 6, and - 12, and percentage changes of - 0.63%, - 0.07%, and - 3.15% respectively. The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 2954, 2458, and 8844 respectively, with price changes of - 4, - 2, and 26, and percentage changes of - 0.14%, - 0.08%, and 0.29% respectively [2] - **Spreads and Ratios**: There are various spread and ratio indicators for different varieties, such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, etc. The current values and previous values of these indicators are provided, showing certain changes [2] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing price of BMD palm oil was 4032 ringgit/ton, with a price change of 22 and a percentage change of 0.55%. The previous day's closing price of CBOT soybeans was 1048 cents/bu, with a price change of 1 and a percentage change of 0.05%. The previous day's closing price of CBOT US soybean oil was 55 cents/lb, with a price change of - 1 and a percentage change of - 0.96%. The previous day's closing price of CBOT US soybean meal was 292 dollars/ton, with a price change of 2 and a percentage change of 0.58% [2] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and meals are provided, such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil at 8150, with a percentage change of - 0.73%, and Nantong soybean meal at 2800, with a percentage change of - 0.71% [2] - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads between different varieties are also given, such as the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil being 206 and the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil being - 350 [2] Import Profit and Pressure - Import profit and pressure indicators for different imported varieties are presented, such as the current value of the near - month Malaysian palm oil being - 580, showing a change compared to the previous value [2] Warehouse Receipts - Current and previous values of warehouse receipts for various varieties like soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are provided, with some showing changes [2] Industry Information - Malaysia's palm oil production from June 1 - 30 is estimated to decrease by 4.69%, with different changes in different regions [3] - The global food price index in June increased by 0.5% compared to May, reaching an average of 128.0 points [3] - As of the week ending June 29, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, the flowering rate was 17%, and the pod - setting rate was 3% [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: It is in a pattern of weak current situation but strong future expectations. The short - term pressure comes from the复产 situation. If there is excessive inventory accumulation from August to September or continuous poor demand sentiment in China and India, it is in the seasonally short - allocated period, with the 9 - 1 reverse spread strategy as the main approach. The price pressure still has room and time to release due to the concentrated listing of European rapeseed and potential downward pressure on crude oil. However, if the crude oil price center rises later, the weak fundamentals will not lead to much downward space. There are potential long - term positives in production and demand, and there may be opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels at the end of the third quarter [2][6]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is also in a state of weak current situation and strong future expectations. The inventory may reach a high point in July, and the opening of soybean meal imports may tighten the supply of soybean oil. After the third quarter, if there is no actual purchase of US soybeans, there is a large upward space for the crushing profit and Brazilian premium in October. There may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, while observing the expected change of the palm oil inventory inflection point and the change of the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [5]. 3. Summary by Directory **Last Week's View and Logic** - **Palm Oil**: Its fundamental situation changed little, mainly following the fluctuations of crude oil and US soybean oil under the influence of the sentiment of the US spending bill. The 09 contract of palm oil rose 1.15% last week [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The weak current - situation trading of domestic soybean oil continued. When US soybeans and crude oil rose together, soybean oil was not significantly driven, and the spread between soybean oil and palm oil narrowed. The 09 contract of soybean oil fell 0.72% last week [1]. **This Week's View and Logic** - **Palm Oil**: The market lacks clear trading contradictions. It shows a volatile and slightly stronger pattern following crude oil and US soybean oil. The continuous increase in Malaysia's production from June to August is uncertain, and the 2025 production is estimated to be around 19.2 million tons. There is a risk that the production from July to August may be lower than that of the same period last year. The supply and demand in the producing areas are both strong, and the inventory - reduction expectation in Malaysia in June is very small. In Indonesia, the price of various palm oils and fruit bunches is high, and the sentiment of traders is relatively positive. The US biodiesel policy will lead to a reduction of at least 1.4 million tons of US soybean oil supply in the 25/26 period, which will drive the upward movement of the international oil market. However, it has limited improvement on the recent fundamentals of palm oil. There are different views on Malaysia's palm oil production this year. If the good yield in Malaysia and Indonesia continues from July to August, there will be a large inventory - accumulation pressure from August to September. If the crude oil price center rises, the downward space of palm oil will be limited [2]. - **Soybean Oil**: It is in a weak - reality and strong - expectation pattern. The inventory may reach a high point in July, and the opening of soybean meal imports may tighten the supply. After the third quarter, if there is no actual purchase of US soybeans, there is a large upward space for the crushing profit and Brazilian premium in October. There may be opportunities to go long on soybean oil and narrow the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, while observing the expected change of the palm oil inventory inflection point and the change of the US soybean oil biodiesel policy [5]. **Basic Market Data of Futures Contracts** - **Prices and Price Changes**: The main - continuous contract of palm oil closed at 8,472 yuan/ton, up 1.15%; the main - continuous contract of soybean oil closed at 7,944 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; the main - continuous contract of rapeseed oil closed at 9,607 yuan/ton, up 1.49%. The main - continuous contract of Malaysian palm oil closed at 4,062 ringgit/ton, up 1.25%, and the main - continuous contract of CBOT soybean oil closed at 54.54 cents/pound, up 3.65% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main - continuous contract of palm oil was 2,596,094 lots, with a decrease of 406,426 lots; the open interest was 451,187 lots, with an increase of 679 lots. The trading volume of the main - continuous contract of soybean oil was 3,002,520 lots, with a decrease of 268,035 lots; the open interest was 544,238 lots, with a decrease of 20,407 lots. The trading volume of the main - continuous contract of rapeseed oil was 4,101,631 lots, with a decrease of 195,915 lots; the open interest was 323,968 lots, with an increase of 4,565 lots [8]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil for the 09 contract was 1,663 yuan/ton, up 13.59%; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil for the 09 contract was - 528 yuan/ton, down 41.18%. The 9 - 1 spread of palm oil was 0 yuan/ton, up 100%; the 9 - 1 spread of soybean oil was 14 yuan/ton, down 68.18%; the 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil was 71 yuan/ton, up 1.43% [8]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 670 lots, an increase of 200 lots compared with last week; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 22,977 lots, an increase of 4,095 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 805 lots, an increase of 705 lots [8]. **Core Fundamental Data of Oils** - **Palm Oil in Producing Areas**: Malaysia's palm oil production decreased month - on - month in June, and the inventory remained flat. In Indonesia, the inventory level is not expected to rise further after the second quarter, and the price spread between Indonesia and Malaysia has increased. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from June 1 - 30 was 1,382,460 tons, a 4.7% increase compared with the same period last month [10][12]. - **Demand - Side Data**: India's palm oil import profit declined, and the profit of sunflower oil was significantly better. The CNF spread between soybean oil and palm oil in India rebounded rapidly. The EU's cumulative import of palm oil decreased by 270,000 tons in 2025, and the cumulative import of four major oils decreased by 540,000 tons [12][13]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of palm oil (in South China) for the 09 contract was 20, and the basis of soybean oil (in Jiangsu) declined [13].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In June, the price center of domestic oils continued to rise. The first half - month saw narrow - range fluctuations, while the second half witnessed a sharp increase followed by a decline due to geopolitical and policy factors [3]. - Globally, oilseeds and vegetable oils are moving towards a more relaxed supply - demand situation. However, different oil products face various contradictions between supply and demand [8][9][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Domestic Market**: In June, DCE soybean oil futures rose 4.53%, DCE palm oil futures rose 3.35%, and CZCE rapeseed oil futures rose 0.72%. The price increase was driven by Middle - East tensions, U.S. bio - diesel policy, and high - temperature threats in North America, followed by a decline after the cease - fire [3]. - **International Market**: CBOT soybean futures first rose and then fell. Malaysian palm oil futures rose more than 3%, affected by crude oil price changes and bio - diesel policies [3]. 3.2 Future Outlook - **International Supply - Demand Contradictions** - **Soybean**: South American bumper harvests compete with low U.S. soybean inventories. With stable weather during the North American planting period, there is a lack of upward momentum in the short term [8]. - **Rapeseed**: There are both expectations of Canadian production cuts and trade policy disturbances. The impact of China - Canada relations on rapeseed varieties needs attention [8]. - **Palm oil**: The high - yield period conflicts with improved export demand. Under inventory accumulation pressure, prices are under pressure, and bio - diesel policies remain a volatility amplifier [8]. - **Domestic Market Outlook** - **Soybean oil**: The arrival of South American soybeans increases, and the supply is abundant. However, rising import costs support prices [9]. - **Palm oil**: The arrival volume from June to July is only 250,000 tons per month. The pattern of "low import, low consumption" continues. International factors provide short - term impetus, but prices may face pressure without new drivers [9]. - **Rapeseed oil**: Supply and demand are tightening. After July, the arrival of imported rapeseed will decrease significantly. In the medium - to - long term, prices are expected to rise, but the substitution effect of the soybean - rapeseed oil price difference needs attention [9]. 3.3 Key Data - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of June, soybean oil warehouse receipts increased by 1,730 to 18,882; palm oil warehouse receipts increased by 470 to 470; rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 500 to 100 [14]. - **Basis of Three Major Oils**: In June, the basis of soybean oil decreased by 98 to 218; the basis of palm oil decreased by 226 to 214; the basis of rapeseed oil decreased by 39 to 134 [20]. - **CFTC Managed Fund Net Positions**: As of the week of June 24, the net long position of CBOT soybean - managed funds decreased by 25,523 to 35,396; the net long position of CBOT soybean oil - managed funds decreased by 10,803 to 43,775 [23]. - **Soybean Premiums at Major Ports**: As of June 30, 2025, South American port soybean premiums were 225 cents per bushel, up 80 cents from the previous month; Mexican Gulf soybean premiums were 227 cents per bushel, up 17 cents from the previous month [26]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Global Oilseed and Vegetable Oil Supply - Demand**: In the 2025/26 period, global oilseed production and crushing are slightly adjusted upward, and ending stocks are increased again. Global vegetable oil production, trade, consumption, and ending stocks are all slightly increased, showing a trend towards a more relaxed supply - demand situation [32]. - **Global Consumption of Three Major Oils**: In 2025/26, the consumption of three major oils for biodiesel is 54,131 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.14%. The edible consumption is 127,505 thousand tons, with a year - on - year increase of 2.17%. The growth rates are both slowing down [37]. - **Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2025/26, global soybean production is expected to be 426.817 million tons, with an increase of 6.04 million tons compared to the previous year. The supply - demand pattern remains relaxed [41]. - **Rapeseed Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2025/26, global rapeseed production is expected to be 8.9773 million tons, an increase of 450,900 tons compared to the previous year. Ending stocks are expected to be 928,800 tons, a slight increase [57]. - **Palm Oil Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2025/26, global palm oil production is expected to be 8.0736 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons compared to the previous forecast. Ending stocks are expected to be 1.5051 million tons, an increase of 58,800 tons compared to the previous forecast [71]. 3.5 Production and Trade Data of Major Countries - **United States**: As of the 42nd week of the 2024/25 season, the weekly soybean export volume was 270,000 tons, and the cumulative export volume was 45.61 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.76%. The export volume to China decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. In May 2025, the soybean crushing volume increased by 5.01% year - on - year, and the December soybean oil inventory decreased by 20.36% year - on - year [43][46][50]. - **Brazil**: In May 2025, the soybean export volume was 14.23 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to May increased by 3.37% year - on - year. The estimated export volume in June was 14.99 million tons [54]. - **Canada**: As of the 46th week of the 2024/25 crushing season, the weekly rapeseed export volume was 117,900 tons, and the cumulative export volume increased by 53% year - on - year. The commercial inventory decreased by 2.3% year - on - year. As of April 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume decreased by 4% year - on - year, and the cumulative crushing volume from January to April increased by 2.22% year - on - year [64][66]. - **Malaysia**: In May 2025, palm oil production increased by 3.94% year - on - year, exports increased by 0.16% year - on - year, and inventory increased by 13.5% year - on - year [77]. - **Indonesia**: In April 2025, palm oil exports decreased compared to the previous year, and inventory was lower than the previous year [80]. - **India**: In May 2025, the vegetable oil import volume decreased compared to the previous year, and the inventory decreased compared to the previous year [83]. - **China**: In May 2025, soybean imports increased by 36.16% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports decreased slightly. Rapeseed imports decreased, rapeseed oil imports increased, and palm oil imports decreased [87][91][94][97]. 3.6 Domestic Production Situation - **Soybean Oil**: As of the 25th week of 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.48 million tons, the soybean oil commercial inventory was 886,300 tons, the operating rate was 67.02%, and the import soybean spot crushing profit was 47 yuan per ton [101]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: As of the 25th week of 2025, the rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills was 145,000 tons, the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 630,500 tons, the operating rate was 14.26%, and the import rapeseed spot crushing profit was 406 yuan per ton [105]. - **Palm Oil**: As of the 25th week of 2025, the palm oil inventory in key regions was 433,900 tons, and the palm oil import profit was - 281 yuan per ton [108].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On June 27, 2025, the coking coal price continued to rise. The price increase was due to multiple factors including supply - side constraints, demand - side expectations, futures market factors, and capital inflows. However, high inventory levels suppressed the price rebound space [3][4][5] - The A - share market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards as the NDRC released positive policies and data [8][9] - Gold is expected to reach a new high in the long - term despite a short - term adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [12][13] - Iron ore is considered to be in a wide - range oscillation with a slightly stronger trend. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits, industry repair status, and the over - valuation risk caused by weak market conditions [16][17] - Glass is in a narrow - range consolidation, and an uptrend depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements [19][20] - Short - term soybean oil prices may fluctuate or strengthen due to the US biodiesel policy and the Middle - East situation. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8150 - 8100, short - selling with a light position is recommended [23] Group 3: Summaries by Directory Coking Coal - Supply - side factors: In June (the "Safety Production Month"), major coking coal - producing provinces like Shanxi strengthened production restrictions after safety accidents. The upcoming implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law" on July 1 may force out backward production capacity. Some coal prices are close to cash costs, pressuring private mines to cut production [4] - Demand - side factors: Although the current terminal is in a seasonal off - peak, there is an expected increase in demand during the traditional coking coal peak season from April to October as steel mills may replenish stocks. More macro - policies to stabilize the economy and promote infrastructure could also boost demand [4] - Futures and capital factors: Coking coal futures have been falling since 2025, with a strong need for correction. Some short - position funds took profits and reduced positions, and the net long positions of the top 20 seats increased [5] - Inventory factor: The inventory of imported coking coal at ports and the total inventory are at a three - year high, and the frequent auction failures of Mongolian coal have led to inventory backlogs, suppressing price rebounds [5] A - share Market - Market trend: The three major A - share indexes showed a pattern of rising and then falling, closing with small shrinking - volume negative lines. The market is in a shrinking - volume adjustment state [9] - Policy influence: The NDRC released positive policies and data at a regular press conference, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [8][9] Gold - Market situation: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in the gold market [13] - Outlook: The long - term trend of gold is still bullish, and it is expected to reach a new high. Investors can buy in batches at low prices [12][13] Iron Ore - Market fundamentals: Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories have started to accumulate again. The weak market conditions have increased the risk of over - valuation [17] - Technical analysis: The market closed with a large positive line today but remains within a wide - range oscillation, showing a slightly stronger trend [16] Glass - Supply - demand situation: There has been no significant cold - repair of production lines due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders lack the motivation to replenish stocks, resulting in a lack of continuous demand growth [20] - Technical analysis: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, and an uptrend depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus policies or major policy announcements [19] Soybean Oil - Market factors: The long - term expectations of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation may cause short - term price fluctuations or strengthen the market. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and there will be a seasonal increase in production and inventory in the medium - term [23] - Trading strategy: When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8150 - 8100, short - selling with a light position is recommended [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current situation of the oil and fat market is characterized by weak reality and strong expectations, with potential bullish drivers in both production and demand in the second half of the year. The US biodiesel policy injects upward momentum into the entire oil and fat sector [2]. - Before the fourth quarter, it is advisable to go long on palm oil and rapeseed oil at low levels, and consider going long on soybean oil as appropriate. For US soybean oil, it is recommended to configure it by going long on the US oil - meal ratio, while closely monitoring any policy changes in the US biodiesel sector and the resumption rhythm of oilseeds and oils production [2]. - When the US biodiesel policy impacts the global oil and fat demand pattern again, the results of the RVO final case announcement and subsequent subsidy plans have become the most important leading factors for the oil and fat market. Wait for the rulings of the 45Z and RFS models on imported raw materials to guide the price differences between different oils and the opening of the upward space for US soybean oil [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 H1 Oil and Fat Market Review - **Phase 1 (Dec 2024 - Mid - late Jan 2025)**: The supply pressure of new Brazilian crops and the depreciation of the real led to a continuous decline in Brazilian soybean discounts. The US soybean oil futures were affected by the pessimistic expectations of the biodiesel policy, and the marginal bullish factors for palm oil were scarce. As a result, the entire oil and fat sector was under pressure [6]. - **Phase 2 (Early Feb - End of Mar 2025)**: The unexpected bullish USDA report at the beginning of the year, the full - fledged trading of the pessimistic expectations of the US soybean oil biodiesel policy, and the short - term strength of US soybean oil due to the cold wave in US fuel laid the foundation for the rise in February. After the Spring Festival, soybean oil was strong due to import cost support, and palm oil was strong due to low production and supply concerns [7]. - **Phase 3 (Apr - End of May 2025)**: Palm oil fluctuated between strong reality and weak expectations. The market was divided on the inflection point, and the multi - short game was intense. After the Qingming Festival, the three major oils followed the decline of international oil prices, and then entered a period of bottom - building and waiting for new contradictions [8]. - **Phase 4 (Jun 2025 - Present)**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boosted oil prices, and the positive news of the US RVO policy injected upward momentum into the oil and fat sector. US soybean oil regained independent upward pricing power on the demand side and drove up international oils, waiting for more resonance factors in the third quarter to determine the direction [8]. 3.2 2025 Oil and Fat Supply Outlook - **Overall Supply and Demand**: In the 24/25 period, the global supply of the four major oils is estimated to increase by about 2.53 million tons to 206 million tons, with a significant slowdown in growth compared to the previous two years. Consumption is expected to decrease by 1.9 million tons to 203 million tons. The ending inventory is expected to increase by 3 million tons to 27.71 million tons, and the stock - to - use ratio will rise from 12.06% to 13.64%. In the 25/26 period, the total production of the four major oils is expected to increase by 6.5 million tons, demand will increase by 4.8 million tons, and the ending inventory will continue to be rebuilt [17][18]. - **Palm Oil**: In 2025, the cumulative production of Malaysian palm oil from January to May increased by 0.17% year - on - year. The production in April and May exceeded expectations, challenging the view of yield decline due to aging trees. In June, production is expected to remain flat or slightly decrease. For the whole year, it is estimated that the production of Malaysian palm oil will be around 19.2 million tons, with a risk of lower production in July - August compared to last year. In Indonesia, production is expected to recover to 55.2 million tons in 2025, but there may be a risk of lower - than - expected production from June to July next year [23][24][27]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the 24/25 period, global soybean oil production will reach 68.38 million tons, an increase of 3.51 million tons year - on - year. Consumption is expected to increase by about 1.9 million tons, mainly in India and Brazil. The ending inventory is expected to increase by 1.66 million tons. In the 25/26 period, USDA estimates that global soybean oil production will increase by 2.4 million tons [47]. - **Rapeseed and Sunflower Oil**: In the 24/25 period, global rapeseed production is expected to decrease by 4.5 million tons to 85.26 million tons, and rapeseed oil production will decline by 0.6 million tons to 31.42 million tons. Global sunflower oil production is expected to decrease by 2.7 million tons. The ending inventory of rapeseed oil is expected to increase by 0.87 million tons, while that of sunflower oil will decrease by 0.6 million tons. In the 25/26 period, the production of rapeseed and sunflower seeds is expected to increase significantly year - on - year [50][52]. 3.3 2025 Oil and Fat Demand Outlook - **China**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of the four major oils decreased by 0.9 million tons year - on - year. The demand share of soybean oil increased, while the consumption of palm oil and sunflower oil decreased significantly. It is estimated that the demand for the four major oils in China in 2025 will decrease by 3 million tons compared to last year [57]. - **India**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative import of edible vegetable oils decreased by 1.2 million tons year - on - year. The reasons for the lower - than - expected demand include high domestic vegetable oil prices, suppressed speculative demand, reduced wealth effect, and the substitution of small oils. It is estimated that the cumulative import of the three major oils in India in 2025 will decrease by 0.8 million tons year - on - year [68][69]. - **EU**: In the 24/25 period, the consumption of the four major oils in the EU is estimated to decrease by 1.05 million tons. The reduction in production and high prices have led to demand rationing. The actual demand is not good, affected by both biodiesel raw material demand and edible consumption [76][77]. - **Global Biodiesel Demand Outlook**: In 2025, the total global demand for biodiesel/HVO/SAF is estimated to decrease by 50,000 tons. In terms of raw materials, the increase in biodiesel - used soybean oil is almost zero, the increase in palm oil is 1.5 million tons, rapeseed oil decreases by 0.7 million tons, and the global use of UCO decreases by 0.7 million tons [80]. - **US**: In 2026, the proposed rules will significantly benefit the demand for US soybean oil. It is estimated that the industrial demand for US soybean oil will increase by about 1.4 million tons in the 25/26 period, and about 1.2 million tons of supply will be withdrawn from the international circulation of oils [84][86]. - **Indonesia**: The B40 policy is expected to increase demand by 1.4 million tons [80]. - **Brazil**: The strong diesel demand stimulates biodiesel production, and the B14 policy is expected to increase demand by 0.45 million tons [80]. 3.4 2025 Oil and Fat Inventory Changes and Market Outlook - In the 24/25 and 25/26 periods, the ending inventory of the four major global oils is expected to continue the process of rebuilding. However, if the US EPA's proposed rules for 2026 and 2027 are implemented as expected, it will increase the demand for US soybean oil and affect the global oil and fat market [18].