交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-11-24 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2420至2480区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求旺季过去，但库存维持低位支撑盘面， 加上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2530，基差99，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方但方向向上。中性 5.主力持仓：主力 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-11-20 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2400至2460区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求旺季过去，但库存维持低位支撑盘面， 加上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2520，基差101，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方但方向向上。中性 5.主力持仓：主 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Despite the end of the peak demand season for rapeseed meal, low inventory levels support the market. Influenced by soybean meal and the uncertain Sino - Canadian trade relations, the market will remain range - bound in the short term [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2400 - 2460 range oscillation. The market is affected by soybean meal trends, technical consolidation, and the pending anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term outlook is neutral [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with supply expected to be tight in the short term and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports, affecting domestic supply. The initial anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports in China is established, with a 75.8% import deposit imposed, but the final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict and potential geopolitical risks support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The initial anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season, and there is a small probability of a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports. The main market focus is on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Basis**: The spot price is 2540, with a basis of 109, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.8 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from last year's 2.2 tons, which is bullish. - **Market Trend**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upwards, showing a neutral trend. - **Trading Data**: From November 10th to 18th, the trading volume of soybean meal fluctuated between 17.99 - 31.41 tons, while the trading volume of rapeseed meal was 0. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract also had minor fluctuations [9][13][15]. 3.5 Position Data - The number of long positions of the main players has increased, but the capital has flowed out, showing a bullish signal [9].

菜籽系产业日报 2025-11-17 格形成支撑。不过，豆油供应充裕，且替代优势良好，使得菜油需求维持刚需为主。盘面来看，近来菜油期价低位反弹走强，短期 波动加大，短线参与为主。 重点关注 周一我的农产品网油菜籽开机率及各地区菜油粕库存量，中加贸易关系走向 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | -43 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 9880 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Rapeseed Meal Morning Report - Report Date: November 17, 2025 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate within the range of 2440 - 2500. The market is in a wait - and - see mode for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a range - bound pattern [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the post - holiday off - season, with short - term supply in the spot market expected to be tight and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues may reduce short - term imports. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has found it to be established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian production offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may still rise, providing support for commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills on rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season, and there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. - Main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: From November 6th to 14th, the average trading price of soybean meal ranged from 3078 - 3106 yuan/ton, and the trading volume ranged from 4.69 - 31.41 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was 2600 - 2650 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually increased from 442 to 506 yuan/ton [13]. - **Price Data**: From November 6th to 14th, the price of rapeseed meal futures main contract 2601 decreased from 2549 to 2490 yuan/ton, the far - month contract 2605 fluctuated slightly, and the rapeseed meal spot price (Fujian) decreased from 2650 to 2600 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: From November 5th to 14th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2955 to 2745, with a decrease of 200 on November 6th and remaining stable thereafter [17]. - **Other Data**: Imported rapeseed arrivals have no shipping schedule forecast for November, and import costs are affected by tariffs. Oil mill rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are at low levels, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remains low. Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [23][25][35]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal first rose and then fell, affected by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market, and the short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and maintains a range - bound pattern. It is rated as neutral [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2600, the basis is 110, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 17,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% compared to last week's 18,000 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared to 22,000 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and the direction is upward, which is bullish [9]. - **Main Position**: The main long positions have increased, but the funds have flowed out, which is bullish [9]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal has fluctuated and declined due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. With the recent rumors of improved China - Canada trade relations, it has returned to a range - bound pattern in the short term, and subsequent developments should be monitored [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2460 - 2520. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. Affected by soybean meal, it will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2460 - 2520 range - bound pattern. The market is waiting for the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Spot demand is off - peak, but low inventory supports the market. It is affected by soybean meal in the short term [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply tightening and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term exports and domestic supply expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with Ukraine's rapeseed production decreasing and Russia's increasing, offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping recognition and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From November 5th to 13th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3078 - 3092 yuan/ton, and the daily trading volume varied from 4.69 - 31.41 million tons. Rapeseed meal had no trading volume during this period, and the average price of soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased from 452 yuan/ton to 491 yuan/ton [13]. - From November 5th to 13th, the price of rapeseed meal futures main contract 2601 decreased from 2537 yuan/ton to 2492 yuan/ton, and the far - month contract 2605 fluctuated around 2400 - 2430 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price (Fujian) decreased from 2640 yuan/ton to 2600 yuan/ton [15]. - From November 4th to 13th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 2955 to 2745 on November 7th and remained unchanged thereafter [17]. - Rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell, with the spot price following the fluctuations, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly. The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal and the price difference of the 2601 contract fluctuated slightly [18][20]. - There is no ship arrival forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [23]. - Oil mills' rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are at low levels, and the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remains low [25][27]. - Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [35]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions of rapeseed meal have decreased, but funds have flowed in [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 fluctuates in the range of 2480 - 2540. It is affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak season for spot demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. Given the uncertainties in China - Canada trade, the market will fluctuate in the short term [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. There are both positive and negative factors in the current situation, and the future trend depends on the final result of the anti - dumping ruling and trade relations between China and Canada [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 fluctuates in the range of 2480 - 2540. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. It is affected by soybean meal and maintains a range - bound trend in the short term [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture enters the off - season after the long holiday. Supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and demand is decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but export is expected to decrease due to China - Canada trade issues [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and an import deposit of 75.8% is imposed. The final result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, with the production in Canada higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. There is a possibility of an escalation in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports bulk commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping recognition of Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. - Main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Base difference**: The spot price is 2630, the base difference is 103, and the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [9]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% compared with last week's 1.8 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% compared with 2.2 tons in the same period last year, which is bullish [9]. - **Market trend**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward, which is bullish [9]. - **Transaction data**: From October 31 to November 10, the trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal and the average trading price showed certain fluctuations, and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also fluctuated slightly [13]. - **Price summary**: Rapeseed meal futures prices first rose and then fell, and the spot price followed the fluctuations. The spot premium fluctuated slightly [15][17]. - **Import situation**: There is no shipping schedule forecast for imported rapeseed in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [22]. - **Inventory of oil mills**: The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills remains low [24][26]. - **Aquaculture situation**: Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - The main long positions have decreased, and funds have flowed out, which is bullish [9]. - From October 30 to November 10, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts showed a downward trend [16].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of rapeseed meal is neutral [8] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal fluctuated and declined, affected by soybean meal and technical consolidation. The market returned to a volatile state, waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. Although the peak season for rapeseed meal demand has passed, low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the market will maintain a range - bound pattern in the short term, influenced by soybean meal [8]. - Rapeseed meal futures rose and then fell, with the spot price following the fluctuations, and the spot premium fluctuated slightly [33]. - Rapeseed meal will fluctuate and rise in the short term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term, mainly affected by policy changes and short - term soybean meal trends. Future trends depend on policy and soybean meal [42]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of rapeseed meal, including its fundamentals, market news, and technical indicators, and gives trading strategies and future focus points [8][44] 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce short - term exports and domestic supply [10]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final result is still uncertain [10]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, with Canadian production higher than expected [10]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, supporting commodity prices [10] 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [11]. - Bearish factors are the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result [11]. - The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [11] 4. Fundamental Data - The rapeseed meal inventory is 17,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45% [8]. - The spot price is 2,640, with a basis of 101, indicating a premium over futures [8]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average and moving upward [8]. - The main long positions have increased, and funds have flowed in [8]. - The import of rapeseed has no shipping schedule in November, and the import cost is affected by tariffs [19]. - The oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume remains low, and the rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventories are at low levels [21][23]. - Aquatic fish prices have slightly declined, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [31] 5. Position Data - The main long positions in rapeseed meal have increased, and funds have flowed in [8] 6. Trading Strategies - Futures: Short - term range - bound and slightly bullish. The RM2601 contract will fluctuate around 2,500 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting is recommended [12]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [13] 7. Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal fluctuated and rose due to the Canadian Prime Minister's statement. The China - Canada trade relationship is still uncertain, and it will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term [42]. - The KDJ indicator is oscillating at a high level, and the short - term market is in a technical consolidation stage. The indicator at a medium - high level limits the rebound height [42]. - The MACD is oscillating and rising at a low level, but the red energy is narrowing. Future trends depend on rapeseed import policies and soybean meal [42] 8. Next Week's Focus Points - The most important points are the harvesting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [44]. - The second - most important points are domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, and the rapeseed meal inventory of domestic oil mills and downstream procurement [44]. - Other important points are macro - factors and the Israel - Palestine conflict [44]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2500 - 2560. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand peak season has passed, but low inventory supports the market. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain range - bound fluctuations [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed. The main influencing factors include the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the change in domestic aquaculture demand season, and potential changes in the Sino - Canadian trade relationship [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is in a 2500 - 2560 range - bound oscillation. Factors influencing it include soybean meal trends, technical consolidation, the pending anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed, low inventory, and the uncertain Sino - Canadian trade relationship [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with supply expected to be tight in the short - term and demand decreasing, which suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term export expectations. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Geopolitical conflicts still support commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping recognition and imposition of import deposits on Canadian rapeseed; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is gradually entering the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price and Volume**: From October 29 to November 6, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3017 to 3092, and the trading volume ranged from 4.69 to 15.08 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2500 to 2650, and the trading volume was mostly 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 517 to 442 [13]. - **Futures and Spot Prices**: From October 29 to November 6, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2601) increased from 2373 to 2549, and the price of the far - month contract 2605 increased from 2330 to 2416. The spot price in Fujian increased from 2500 to 2650 [15]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From October 28 to November 6, rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 4050 to 2755 [16]. - **Import and Inventory**: In October, the import volume of rapeseed remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory continued to decline, and rapeseed meal inventory was at a low level. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills remained low [22][24][26]. - **Aquaculture Production and Prices**: Aquaculture fish prices declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions decreased, but capital inflows were observed, showing a bullish signal [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks with widespread shutdowns, resulting in less supply pressure. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution advantage of soybean meal. Recently, the prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal have rebounded from low levels, and the short - term trend has strengthened. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market is expected to continue the de - stocking mode. Near - month imports of rapeseed are structurally tightened, and oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks with widespread shutdowns, which supports the price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at a basic level. After a continuous decline, the decline of rapeseed oil futures prices has slowed down, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Directory **Futures Market** - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9407 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2537 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 639.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 8.4 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5126 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased by 1525 lots to 214,565 lots, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions decreased by 5155 lots to - 8535 lots. The position of the main rapeseed meal contract increased by 32,792 lots to 408,102 lots, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions increased by 22,004 lots to - 2963 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 702 to 6838, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2955 [2]. **Spot Market** - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9770 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2530 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9887.5 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 7969.31 yuan/ton, up 150.43 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio was 3.78, down 0.03. The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 327 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 33 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1360 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons. The total import volume of rapeseed in the current month was 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons [2]. - **Profit and Operation**: The import rapeseed crushing profit was 596 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 1 million tons, down 1 million tons. The weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed was 1.6%, down 1.33 percentage points [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Inventory**: The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 16 million tons, up 2 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was - 0.4 million tons. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 3.8 million tons, up 0.71 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 47.8 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 26.05 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 2.4 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 20.7 million tons, down 0.6 million tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 1.84 million tons, up 1.49 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 0.39 million tons, up 0.17 million tons [2]. **Downstream Situation** - The monthly production of feed was 3128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. **Option Market** - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 21.81%, down 1.99 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 21.81%, up 2.84 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.17%, down 0.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.17%, up 1.17 percentage points [2]. **Industry News** - On November 4th, ICE rapeseed futures declined. The US - China soybean trade agreement boosted the price of US soybean futures, which was beneficial to the domestic meal market. The meeting between the Canadian Prime Minister and the Chinese President did not achieve a breakthrough in rapeseed tariffs [2]. **Key Points of Attention** - The rapeseed opening rate and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in each region released by Myagric on Monday, and the trend of China - Canada trade relations [2]