| [T走ab势le_评R级ank：] | 棕榈油：看涨 | 豆油：看涨 | | | 菜油：看涨 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | | 年 月 | 2025 8 | 25 日 | | [Table_Summary] ★调研背景 农 近期油脂市场政策扰动频繁。豆油方面，目前中美贸易谈判仍 未取得实质性进展，中国仍未有购买美豆的行动，叠加豆油出 口的增加，豆油基本面预期发生了较为明显的变化。菜油方 面，加拿大菜籽反倾销初步裁定出炉，我国采取了加征保证金 的临时措施，使得加拿大菜籽进口贸易暂时被阻断，国内菜系 供应受到非常明显的影响。棕榈油方面，国内需求低迷，采购 也并不积极，且产地供应难以恢复，叠加生物柴油政策扰动， 价格走势偏强。我们走访了两广地区的贸易商，调研国内对于 四季度大豆与菜籽供应情况的看法。 产 品 ★调研观点 菜油：现货端菜油供应并不缺乏，销区库存充足，部分地区接 近胀库状态。国内菜油消费极差，仅以刚需为主，虽然目前油 厂菜籽压榨线基本停机，但充足的菜油库存叠加进口毛菜油的 增加，国内四季度菜油供应并不一定会短缺。 豆油：现货端豆油 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the text regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The market is in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The short - term 01 contract may continue to rise based on the 8400 position. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 01 contract, consider 1 - 5 positive spread operations, with support at 8230 - 8300 yuan/ton and pressure at 8800 - 9000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Under the uncertain Sino - Canadian rapeseed trade policy, the price once rose significantly, but the high inventory and alternative imports have weakened market concerns. It shows a wide - range shock, with support at 9500 - 9580 and pressure at 10333 - 10343 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The July Malaysian palm oil ending inventory was lower than expected, and the Indonesian inventory is low. The August production data is poor, and the export demand in early August is good. It is recommended to reduce long positions, with support at 9050 - 9074 and pressure at 9900 - 9990 [2]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.2**: The market is digesting the positive impact of the August USDA report. The Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations are still tense. It is recommended to hold long positions in the 01 contract of soybean meal, with support at 2950 - 2980 yuan/ton and pressure at 3200 - 3250 yuan/ton. The 09 contract of soybean No.2 is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with support at 3640 - 3670 and pressure at 3950 - 4000 [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The 09 contract shows a wide - range shock, with support at 2600 - 2617 and pressure at 2800 - 2823. The 01 contract is affected by the expected reduction of Canadian rapeseed imports [4]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The USDA report has a negative impact on the external market. The domestic market is affected by imported corn and relevant policies. It is recommended to shift short positions to far - month contracts [5]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price continues to fall due to the increasing supply of new soybeans. It is recommended to exit short positions in the main contract and wait and see [6]. - **Peanut**: The inventory of the producing areas is low, and the import is affected. The new - season planting area has increased. The 10 - contract may rebound in the short - term, and it is recommended to short the 11 and 01 contracts on rallies [6][7]. - **Pig**: The spot price has adjusted in August, and the slaughter volume has increased. It is recommended to shift long positions of the 09 contract to the 2511 contract and wait for an opportunity to buy the 2605 contract [7]. - **Egg**: The 09 contract price has continued to decline, and the spot price has stabilized in some areas. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy the 10 - contract at low prices [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Judgment - Different varieties in the feed, breeding, and oil industries have different market logics, including supply - demand relationships, price support and pressure levels, and corresponding trading strategies. For example, the 01 contract of soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at low prices; the 09 contract of corn is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to shift short positions to far - month contracts [10]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - For different varieties' inter - period and inter - variety arbitrage, different reference strategies are provided, such as observing the 9 - 1 spread of soybean No.1, conducting positive spread operations for the 11 - 1 spread of soybean meal, and observing the 09 bean - meal to rapeseed - meal spread [11][12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors are presented, which can help investors understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oilseeds and Oils - **Daily Data**: The import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping periods are provided, including CBOT prices, CNF prices, and import - duty - paid prices [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: The inventory and operating rates of various oilseeds and oils, such as soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, are presented, reflecting the supply - demand situation of the industry [16]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Daily Data**: The import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [16]. - **Weekly Data**: The consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises are presented [17]. 3.2.3 Breeding - The daily and weekly data of pigs and eggs are provided, including spot prices, price changes, production and sales data, and inventory data, which can help understand the market situation of the breeding industry [18][19][20][21][22]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - A large number of charts are provided to track the fundamentals of the breeding, oilseeds and oils, and feed sectors, including price trends, inventory changes, production data, and spread changes, which can help investors comprehensively understand the market situation [24][34][52]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Option Situations of Soybean Meal, Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The historical volatilities of various varieties and the trading and holding volume data of corn options are presented, which can help investors understand the option market situation [71]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse - Receipt Situations of Feed, Breeding, and Oils - The warehouse - receipt data of various varieties are presented, which can help investors understand the market supply situation [74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term prices of soybean meal, soybean oil, and palm oil are all expected to be on an upward - trending or at least stable and slightly increasing path, while the medium - term view for all three is "oscillating" [5][6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "oscillating", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: The USDA report shows that US soybean stocks have declined more than expected, giving a boost to US soybean futures prices. Sino - US trade policy changes and Sino - Canadian trade tensions are affecting market sentiment. The domestic industrial chain environment remains unchanged, and the trading logic revolves around supply expectations and costs. With the initial ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports in China, Sino - US trade relations continue to impact market sentiment, making short - term soybean meal futures prices more likely to rise than fall [5]. - **Influencing Factors**: Import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and inventory demand [6]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: Currently, the low inventory of US soybean oil and the optimistic expectation of biodiesel demand support US soybean oil futures prices. The increase in domestic soybean oil exports to India has alleviated the pressure of oversupply, and the market's expectation of inventory accumulation has eased. At the same time, the expected increase in raw soybean costs has pushed up soybean oil futures prices, which have reached new stage highs, and market sentiment has clearly improved [7]. - **Influencing Factors**: US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [6]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term view is "strong", medium - term view is "oscillating", and the intraday and reference views are "oscillating strongly" [6][8]. - **Core Logic**: Recently, the rotation of the oil and fat sector has continued. Palm oil has been continuously affected by bio - energy policies, showing an obvious upward trend. As the previously weak rapeseed oil has seen a compensatory increase, the upward rotation pattern of the oil and fat sector has been further strengthened, and short - term palm oil futures prices are expected to be oscillating strongly [8]. - **Influencing Factors**: Biodiesel properties, Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrivals and inventory, and substitution demand [6].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Palm oil is likely to rise in the short term but has limited upside potential, facing resistance at the [9200] price level for the 2509 contract. The tight supply situation in Southeast Asia has eased quickly with the arrival of the production season, but high initial yields have raised concerns about over - production. The Indonesian B40 policy has been effective, and domestic near - term arrivals are increasing, while far - term purchases are limited. Overall, the inventory build - up in Southeast Asia is slow, and the palm oil 2509 and 2601 contracts are expected to fluctuate strongly. [3][4] - Soybean oil is also likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the [8500] price level for the y2509 contract. South American soybean export potential is expected to weaken after the third quarter, and the premium has an upward trend. The good condition of US soybeans, the 90 - day extension of the Sino - US tariff agreement, and the pessimistic outlook for US soybean exports put pressure on CBOT soybeans. Domestically, near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations, and the supply in the fourth quarter is uncertain due to Sino - US trade relations. [3] - Rapeseed oil is likely to rise in the short term with limited upside, facing resistance at the 9800 price level for the O1509 contract. The global rapeseed inventory pressure in the 2024/25 season is limited, providing short - term support for international rapeseed prices. The expected recovery of global rapeseed production in the 2025/26 season may suppress the price. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but rapeseed purchases after July have decreased year - on - year, and far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. Overall, rapeseed oil shows a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. [3] Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, the domestic three - major oil indices continued to diverge. Soybean oil continued to rise, while palm oil and rapeseed oil fluctuated widely. As of August 8, the closing price of the 2509 soybean oil contract was 8880 yuan/ton, the 2509 palm oil contract was 8888 yuan/ton, and the 01509 rapeseed oil contract was 9571 yuan/ton. [94] - The BMD crude palm oil futures prices in Malaysia fluctuated widely this week, with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. CBOT soybeans fluctuated sideways, with the center of gravity remaining basically unchanged. [14][34] Supply and Demand Analysis Palm Oil - In Malaysia, different institutions' data show that palm oil exports in July decreased compared to June, while production increased. For example, ITS data shows a 6.7% decrease in exports, and SPPOM data shows a 7.07% increase in production. Indonesia's palm oil exports in May increased significantly, and inventory decreased. The reference price and export tax of Indonesian crude palm oil in August have been raised. [17][18] - India reduced the import tariff on crude edible oils in May, which led to an increase in imports in June - July. However, the palm oil import volume in July decreased by 10% month - on - month to 858,000 tons. [29] Soybean and Soybean Oil - The USDA's July supply - demand report estimated the 2024/25 South American soybean production. Brazil is expected to reach a record high of 169 million tons, and Argentina is expected to be 49.9 million tons. Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to rise seasonally. [69] - As of August 3, the US soybean's flowering rate, pod - setting rate, and good - to - excellent rate are relatively good, and the drought - affected area is about 3%. The old - crop US soybean exports are basically completed, and the 24/25 annual export is expected to be 50.3 million tons. [40] - Domestically, the near - term soybean arrivals are sufficient, and the overall supply of soybeans and soybean oil in the third quarter is expected to be loose. However, recent Indian purchases of Chinese soybean oil have improved short - term demand expectations. [96] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The 2024/25 global rapeseed supply has tightened marginally, with significant impacts in Canada and the EU. The USDA expects a recovery in production in the 2025/26 season, and the global rapeseed stock - to - use ratio will rise slightly to 10.64%. [77] - Canada's Statistics Bureau predicts a decline in the rapeseed planting area in 2025, and the Canadian Ministry of Agriculture estimates a 200,000 - ton reduction in the 2025/26 rapeseed production. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, and near - term supply is loose, but far - term supply is uncertain due to Sino - Canadian trade relations. [77][82] Industry Chain Operation Suggestions - Traders with palm oil or soybean oil inventory should seek to sell at high prices, while those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices to build inventory. Oil - using enterprises should pay attention to price changes when purchasing raw materials. [5][7] - For rapeseed oil, traders with inventory should also seek to sell at high prices, and those without inventory should seek to buy at low prices. Oil - using enterprises need to purchase raw materials and are worried about price increases. [7] Cost - Profit and Inventory - The import costs and import profits of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report, showing certain fluctuations. [111][113][118] - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.3611 million tons, a decrease of 0.07 million tons from the previous week, with a year - on - year increase of 234,300 tons. Among them, soybean and rapeseed oil inventories increased slightly, while palm oil inventory decreased slightly. [120][121][122] CFTC Positions and Warehouse Receipts - CBOT soybean and soybean oil non - commercial net long positions and their proportions are presented, showing certain trends. - The warehouse receipt volumes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil as of August 7, 2025, are provided. [136][143][145]

Report Title - Policy and fundamentals are intertwined, and the oscillation of oils and fats continues [1][2][8] Core Views - Palm oil is in a stage of oscillating upward, and the price center is expected to rise in the later period. The p2509 contract is expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation. [3] - Soybean oil is prone to rise but has limited upward space in the short term. The y2509 contract has resistance at the price of 18,400. [3] - Rapeseed oil is also prone to rise but has limited upward space in the short term. The 01509 contract has resistance at the price of 9,800. [3] Week - on - Week Data Changes DCE Palm Oil - 01 contract: The closing price this week was 8,104.0, down 14 from last week, a decline of 0.17%. The 1 - 5 spread was 366.0, down 18 from last week, a decline of 4.69%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 7,738.0, up 4 from last week, an increase of 0.05%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 406.0, up 20 from last week, a change of - 4.69%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 8,144.0, down 16 from last week, a decline of 0.20%. The 9 - 1 spread was 40.0, down 2 from last week, a decline of 4.76%. [9] DCE Soybean Oil - 01 contract: The closing price was 8,928.0, down 4 from last week, a decline of 0.04%. The 1 - 5 spread was 270.0, down 18 from last week, a decline of 6.25%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 8,658.0, up 14 from last week, an increase of 0.16%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 278.0, up 42 from last week, a change of - 13.12%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 8,936.0, down 28 from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The 9 - 1 spread was 8.0, down 24 from last week, a decline of 75.00%. [9] CZCE Rapeseed Oil - 01 contract: The closing price was 9,401.0, down 108 from last week, a decline of 1.14%. The 1 - 5 spread was 91.0, down 38 from last week, a change of 11.00%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 9,310.0, down 70 from last week, a decline of 0.75%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 147.0, up 59 from last week, a change of - 27.50%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 9,457.0, down 129 from last week, a decline of 1.35%. The 9 - 1 spread was 56.0, down 21 from last week, a change of 22.46%. [9] International Market Analysis Southeast Asian Palm Oil - Malaysia: From July 1 - 20, according to ITS, palm oil exports decreased by 3.5%; according to AmSpec, exports decreased by 7.3%. The production in the first and middle of July increased by 6.19% month - on - month. [13] - Indonesia: In May, palm oil and refined product exports reached 2.86 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from the previous month. The production was 4.17 million tons, and the inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2 million tons. [13] - India: From May 30, India halved the basic import tax of crude edible oils. In June and July, palm oil imports increased. [25] US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - CBOT soybeans oscillated weakly this week. The USDA reduced the 2025/26 US soybean production forecast by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion bushels. [31] - As of July 20, the soybean flowering rate was 88%, the pod - setting rate was 28%, and the good - excellent rate was 68%. [36] South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - Brazil: The 2025/26 production is expected to reach 175 million tons. In July, the estimated export volume is 12.11 million tons. [64] - Argentina: The 2024/25 production was estimated at 49.9 million tons. [64] Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The 2024/25 global rapeseed supply tightened marginally. The 2025/26 USDA forecast shows a restorative increase in production, and the global rapeseed stock - to - use ratio will slightly rise to 10.64%. [73] - Canada: The 2025 rapeseed planting area is expected to be 21.46 million acres. The 2025/26 production is estimated to be 17.8 million tons. [78] Domestic Oils and Fats Market Review - This week, the three major domestic oils oscillated. The performance of soybean and palm oils was better than that of rapeseed oil. [93] Future Outlook - Palm oil: The tight supply pattern in Southeast Asia has eased. It is expected to enter a relatively slow inventory - building cycle. The p2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. [94] - Soybean oil: South American soybean export potential is expected to weaken in the third quarter. The y2509 contract is supported by CBOT soybeans. [95] - Rapeseed oil: The global rapeseed supply is tightening marginally. The 01509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. [95] Supply and Demand - As of July 18, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.3602 million tons, an increase of 62,200 tons from last week, a rise of 2.71%. [125]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term "oscillating and slightly bullish" rating for rapeseed meal futures [13] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds, influenced by soybean meal and technical consolidation. With low oil - mill operation and low inventory, and short - term peak demand, the market is in short - term range oscillation. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed limits the positive impact. In the short term, rapeseed meal may rise and then fall due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff, and return to range oscillation driven by soybean meal [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Hints - Rapeseed meal is expected to be influenced by low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes, rising and then falling, and returning to range oscillation due to soybean meal [8]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed improves the supply - tight expectation. The demand side has good expectations. Canadian rapeseed annual output decreases slightly, and China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, along with ongoing anti - dumping investigations on Canadian rapeseed imports, have uncertain future results. Global rapeseed output decreases slightly due to EU and Canadian production. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and geopolitical conflicts support commodities [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: China's tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure on oil - mill rapeseed meal [11]. - **Bearish factors**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; uncertainties in China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and seasonal low demand for rapeseed meal [12]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Rapeseed arrival**: The arrival of imported rapeseed in July is lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuates slightly [20]. - **Oil - mill crushing and inventory**: Oil - mill rapeseed inventory drops slightly, rapeseed meal inventory remains low, and the rapeseed crushing volume fluctuates slightly [22][24]. - **Rapeseed meal transaction**: Rapeseed meal rebounds from the bottom, and the spot price fluctuates slightly following the futures, with a high - level spot discount [34]. - **Aquaculture**: Aquatic fish prices fluctuate slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remain stable [32]. 3.5 Position Data - The main long positions decrease, and funds flow out [8]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals**: Rapeseed meal oscillates and rebounds, driven by soybean meal and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill operation and low inventory support the market. Spot demand is in peak season, and the arrival of imported rapeseed increases, but short - term inventory pressure is low. The tariff on Canadian oil residue cakes is a short - term positive, but the non - imposition of tariffs on rapeseed limits the positive impact [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2520, and the basis is - 113, indicating a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 0.46 tons, a 58.18% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.1 tons and an 84.67% year - on - year decrease from last year's 3 tons [8]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average but moving downward [8]. - **Main positions**: The main long positions decrease, and funds flow out [8]. - **Expectation**: Rapeseed meal may rise and then fall in the short term due to low imported rapeseed inventory and the tariff, and return to range oscillation driven by soybean meal [8]. - **Trading strategies**: - **Futures**: Short - term oscillation is slightly bullish. RM2509 oscillates above 2500 in the short term. Short - term trading or waiting is recommended [13]. - **Options**: Wait and see [14]. 3.7 Technical Analysis - Rapeseed meal rebounds and returns to range oscillation in the short and medium term, influenced by the listing of domestic rapeseed and good demand. Future Sino - Canadian trade relations and the follow - up impact of the Sino - US tariff war will affect the market. The KDJ indicator oscillates at a high level, and the short - term market is slightly bullish, but the upward space may be limited. The MACD rebounds, and the short - term market is slightly bullish, but the red energy is insufficient. The future trend depends on rapeseed import policies and soybean meal [43]. 3.8 Next Week's Concerns - **Most important**: The planting weather in US soybean - producing areas, Canadian rapeseed exports and domestic crushing demand, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans and rapeseed in China [46]. - **Second - most important**: Domestic soybean meal and aquaculture demand, domestic oil - mill rapeseed meal inventory, and downstream procurement [47]. - **Less important**: Macroeconomic factors and the Palestine - Israel conflict.

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for oilseeds and oils is showing a predominantly positive trend, with rapeseed meal futures experiencing a price increase of 1.46% [1][2] - The main rapeseed meal futures contract opened at 2610.00 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 2646.00 CNY and a low of 2610.00 CNY during the trading session [1] - The market is currently in a seasonal peak for aquaculture feed consumption, but the cost-effectiveness of rapeseed meal is considered poor compared to alternatives [2] Group 2 - Analysts from various institutions have differing views on the future of rapeseed meal prices, with some expecting price pressure due to the influx of Brazilian soybeans and tight supply of old-season rapeseed [2] - The low inventory of imported rapeseed and the impact of tariffs on Canadian oilseed meal are contributing to short-term price fluctuations [2] - The market is currently observing a wait-and-see approach regarding the outcomes of Sino-U.S. trade negotiations, leading to a cautious trading atmosphere [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - **For Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term market focuses on the tight old - crop inventory of Canadian rapeseed, and its growth is in the "weather - dominated" stage. The domestic rapeseed meal market is affected by multiple factors. The arrival of the aquaculture peak season increases the demand, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation, and the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations adds to the supply increment. The market price is under pressure, and the futures price shows a weak performance [2]. - **For Rapeseed Oil**: The cost of Canadian rapeseed provides support for the domestic rapeseed oil market, but the high inventory pressure of domestic oil mills and the expectation of eased China - Canada trade relations add supply pressure. The price is affected by factors such as international oil prices, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil is 9482 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 2550 yuan/ton (down 38 yuan). The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 711.6 Canadian dollars/ton (up 5.5 Canadian dollars), and that of the active contract of rapeseed is 4947 yuan/ton (down 53 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread of rapeseed oil is 78 yuan/ton (up 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is 245 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan) [2]. - **Positions**: The position of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 328,197 lots (down 17,063 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is 600,032 lots (up 49,071 lots). The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of rapeseed oil is 23,914 lots (down 1,157 lots), and that of rapeseed meal is - 19,928 lots (down 6,809 lots) [2]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts for rapeseed oil is 100 (unchanged), and that for rapeseed meal is 22,685 (down 1,329) [2]. 现货市场 - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9680 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2430 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan). The average price of rapeseed oil is 9700 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), and the import cost of imported rapeseed is 5133.35 yuan/ton (up 31.96 yuan) [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of the main contract of rapeseed oil is 204 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan), and that of rapeseed meal is - 120 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan). The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1470 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan), and that between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1190 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan). The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 430 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan) [2]. Upstream Situation - **Production**: The global rapeseed production forecast is 89.56 million tons (up 4.32 million tons), and the annual forecast production of rapeseed is 12,378 thousand tons (unchanged) [2]. - **Imports**: The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 33.55 million tons (down 15.37 million tons), the monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 34 million tons (up 10 million tons), and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 28.79 million tons (up 4.13 million tons) [2]. - **Inventory and Operation Rate**: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 15 million tons (down 5 million tons), and the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 14.26% (down 4.83 percentage points) [2]. Industry Situation - **Inventory**: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 12.2 million tons (down 0.73 million tons), and the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 1.01 million tons (down 0.54 million tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 63.05 million tons (up 2.05 million tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory is 36.83 million tons (down 0.41 million tons). The rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is 7.2 million tons (down 0.1 million tons), and the rapeseed meal inventory in the South China region is 30.8 million tons (down 0.7 million tons) [2]. - **提货量**: The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 2.81 million tons (down 0.73 million tons), and that of rapeseed meal is 2.87 million tons (down 0.56 million tons) [2]. Downstream Situation - **Production**: The monthly production of feed is 26.64 million tons (down 1.132 million tons), and the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 4.404 million tons (down 0.87 million tons) [2]. - **Consumption**: The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 416.7 billion yuan (down 6.8 billion yuan) [2]. Option Market - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 20.78% (down 0.15 percentage points), and that of at - the - money put options is 20.77% (down 0.16 percentage points). The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.11% (down 0.23 percentage points), and that of at - the - money put options is 15.1% (down 0.24 percentage points) [2]. - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 19.12% (up 0.69 percentage points), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 21.61% (up 0.04 percentage points). The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 15.37% (down 0.09 percentage points), and the 60 - day historical volatility is 15.1% (down 0.01 percentage points) [2]. Industry News - On June 25, ICE rapeseed futures closed higher due to tight old - crop supply and bullish technical signals. The July contract rose 4.40 Canadian dollars to 697.80 Canadian dollars/ton, and the November contract rose 8.40 Canadian dollars to 714.60 Canadian dollars/ton [2]. - As of the week ending June 22, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 66%, lower than the market expectation of 67% [2].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the stabilization of international oil prices and a slight increase in palm oil futures, domestic oilseed contracts have recorded a third consecutive day of decline, indicating ongoing market pressures and the need to monitor domestic canola purchases and trade relations with Canada [1][4]. Group 1: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - Malaysia's palm oil exports from June 1-25 increased by 6.63% to 1,057,466 tons compared to the same period last month, indicating a potential easing of inventory pressure [1]. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) forecasts a 4.55% decrease in palm oil production for June 1-20, with significant regional variations in output [2]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in April fell to 1.78 million tons, down from 2.18 million tons year-on-year, while production increased slightly to 4.48 million tons [2]. Group 2: Indian Market Impact - India canceled a 65,000-ton palm oil order due to rising prices, which may disrupt the previously strong purchasing momentum following a reduction in import taxes [3]. - India's June soybean imports are expected to drop by 18% to 325,000 tons, the lowest level in four months, due to port congestion affecting delivery schedules [3]. Group 3: Domestic Oilseed Supply and Demand - Domestic oilseed inventories have risen, with total commercial stocks reaching 2.06 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [4]. - The domestic soybean crushing volume is projected to reach 9.5 million tons for June, supported by high supply levels [5]. - The current oversupply of soybeans is exerting downward pressure on soybean oil prices, while palm oil inventories are also increasing due to higher import volumes [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook and Sentiment - Analysts suggest that the market is currently focused on the tight canola inventory situation and the impact of weather on crop growth, with expectations of increased volatility in the near term [6]. - The recent decline in crude oil prices has negatively affected oilseed performance, leading to expectations of weak fluctuations in the short term [7].

Group 1 - The main contract of rapeseed meal futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 2581.00 yuan, with a drop of 2.71% [1] - Various institutions have differing views on the future market trends of rapeseed meal, with 中辉期货 suggesting cautious short selling, 瑞达期货 indicating a general maintenance of fluctuations, and 方正中期期货 predicting short-term price oscillations [2][3][4] Group 2 - 中辉期货 notes that the rapeseed meal market is currently stable, with a basis quote in the range of 120-130 yuan/ton, and emphasizes the importance of managing positions and targets due to limited new supply [2] - 瑞达期货 highlights that the increase in oil factory operating rates due to the arrival of imported soybeans is putting pressure on the rapeseed meal market, while the demand for rapeseed meal is supported by the peak season for aquaculture [3] - 方正中期期货 points out that the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is decreasing, and there is an expectation of increased production for the new season, while also noting the pressure from soybean meal prices [4]