交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2026-03-05 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 菜粕RM2605：2280至2340区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕冲高回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，中国取消加拿大农产品出口限 制市场短期利空出尽回归震荡。菜粕现货需求尚处淡季，但库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上菜粕春节后需求预期良好，盘面短期受中加贸易关系缓和影响震荡偏弱中期仍维持区 间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2350，基差47，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕国内总库存39.39吨，上周39.73吨，周环比减少0.86%，去年同期48.4万吨， 同比减少18.62%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线 ...

大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2026-03-04 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2605：2300至2360区间震荡 利多： 1.中国菜粕春节后需求维持良好预期。 2.油厂菜粕库存无压力。 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，中国取消加拿大农产品出口限 制市场短期利空出尽回归震荡。菜粕现货需求尚处淡季，但库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上菜粕春节后需求预期良好，盘面短期受中加贸易关系缓和影响震荡偏弱中期仍维持区 间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2380，基差70，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕国内总库存39.39吨，上周39.73吨，周环比减少0.86%，去年同 ...

2026-03-03 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2605：2260至2320区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕探底回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，中国取消加拿大农产品出口限 制市场短期利空出尽回归震荡。菜粕现货需求尚处淡季，但库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上菜粕春节后需求预期良好，盘面短期受中加贸易关系缓和影响震荡偏弱中期仍维持区 间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2370，基差75，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕国内总库存39.39吨，上周39.73吨，周环比减少0.86%，去年同期48.4万吨， 同比减少18.62%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 中加贸易关系恢复正常，菜粕维持震荡 （菜粕周报2.24-2.27） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，中国取消加拿大农产品出口限 制市场短期利空出尽回归震荡。菜粕现货需求尚处淡季，但库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上菜粕春节后需求预期良好，盘面短期受中加贸易关系缓和影响震荡偏弱中期仍维持区 间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2380，基差93，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕国内总库存39.39吨，上周39.73吨，周环比减少0.86%，去年同期48.4万吨， 同比减少18.62%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2026-03-02 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，中国取消加拿大农产品出口限 制市场短期利空出尽回归震荡。菜粕现货需求尚处淡季，但库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上菜粕春节后需求预期良好，盘面短期受中加贸易关系缓和影响震荡偏弱中期仍维持区 间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2400，基差104，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕国内总库存43.78吨，上周44.95吨，周环比减少2.6%，去年同期50.2万吨，同 比减少12.79%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线上方且方向向上。偏多 5.主力持仓：主力空单增加，资金流入，偏空 6.预期：菜 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 2026-02-27 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2605：2260至2320区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，中国取消加拿大农产品出口限 制市场短期利空出尽回归震荡。菜粕现货需求尚处淡季，但库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上菜粕春节后需求预期良好，盘面短期受中加贸易关系缓和影响震荡偏弱中期仍维持区 间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2400，基差104，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕国内总库存43.78吨，上周44.95吨，周环比减少2.6%，去年同期50.2万吨，同 比减少12.79%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2026-02-26 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2605：2300至2360区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，中国取消加拿大农产品出口限 制市场短期利空出尽回归震荡。菜粕现货需求尚处淡季，但库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上菜粕春节后需求预期良好，盘面短期受中加贸易关系缓和影响震荡偏弱中期仍维持区 间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2430，基差118，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕国内总库存43.78吨，上周44.95吨，周环比减少2.6%，去年同期50.2万吨，同 比减少12.79%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线 ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2026-02-25 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2605：2280至2340区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，中国取消加拿大农产品出口限 制市场短期利空出尽回归震荡。菜粕现货需求尚处淡季，但库存维持低位支撑盘面，加 上菜粕春节后需求预期良好，盘面短期受中加贸易关系缓和影响震荡偏弱中期仍维持区 间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2450，基差160，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕国内总库存43.78吨，上周44.95吨，周环比减少2.6%，去年同期50.2万吨，同 比减少12.79%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will oscillate in the range of 2290 - 2350. Affected by the improvement of China - Canada trade relations, it will be weak in the short - term and maintain range - bound in the medium - term. After the overall negative factors are digested, it will still maintain an oscillating pattern [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 oscillates in the range of 2290 - 2350. Its fundamental situation is neutral, with basis indicating a premium, low inventory being positive, price above the 20 - day moving average, but an increase in short positions of the main force and capital outflow being negative [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season, and the supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short - term. The demand is decreasing, suppressing the market. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by trade issues, reducing the expected domestic supply. With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, China - Canada trade relations have improved, and the import of Canadian rapeseed is expected to resume. Global rapeseed production has increased this year. The impact of the Russia - Ukraine conflict on rapeseed production is relatively offset, but geopolitical conflicts may still support commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: Good demand for Chinese rapeseed meal is expected after the Spring Festival, and oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory. Bearish factors: Domestic demand for rapeseed meal is currently in the off - season, and China's import of Canadian rapeseed is about to resume. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of imported Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading data**: From February 4th to 12th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was around 2430 - 2450 yuan, and the average transaction price of soybean meal was around 3117 - 3151 yuan. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal was around 667 - 701 yuan [13]. - **Price data**: From February 5th to 12th, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main 2605 contract) rose from 2238 to 2302 yuan, and the spot price rose from 2430 to 2450 yuan [15]. - **Warehouse receipt data**: From February 4th to 12th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were all 0 [17]. - **Supply - demand balance data**: In the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 to 2025, the harvest area, output, and inventory consumption ratio have changed over the years. In the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet during the same period, the output, total supply, and inventory consumption ratio also show different trends [19][21]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in a summarized way, but it is mentioned that the short positions of the main force have increased and the capital has flowed out [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2260 - 2320. The market is affected by factors such as the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations. In the short - term, it is affected by the improvement of China - Canada trade relations and is oscillating weakly, while in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating pattern [9]. - The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market. The post - Spring Festival demand is expected to be good [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the long - holiday off - season. The supply in the spot market is expected to be tight in the short - term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market expectation. The export of Canadian rapeseed is affected by China - Canada trade issues, resulting in a short - term reduction in domestic supply [11]. - With the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China, the China - Canada trade relations have improved in the short - term. The tariffs imposed by both sides are expected to be gradually cancelled, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [11]. - The global rapeseed output has increased this year, especially the Canadian rapeseed output is higher than expected [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is still ongoing. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed output and the increase in Russia's rapeseed output offset each other. The global geopolitical conflict may rise in the future, which still supports bulk commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise** - China's post - Spring Festival demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be good [12]. - The rapeseed meal inventory of oil mills is under no pressure [12]. - **Likely to Fall** - The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the short - term off - season [12]. - China - Canada trade relations have improved, and China's imports of Canadian rapeseed are about to resume [12]. - **Current Main Logic** - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expected arrival of Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Market Data** - From February 3rd to February 11th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3117 - 3136, and the trading volume varied from 5.03 - 26.17 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was around 2430 - 2450, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only on February 6th reaching 3 million tons. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 667 - 696 [13]. - From February 4th to February 11th, the price of rapeseed meal futures (main contract 2605) fluctuated between 2238 - 2288, and the far - month contract 2609 fluctuated between 2284 - 2330. The spot price of rapeseed meal (in Fujian) was mainly 2430 - 2450 [15]. - From February 3rd to February 11th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were all 0 [17]. - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets** - In the domestic rapeseed supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 - 2025, the harvest area, output, and inventory consumption ratio have all shown certain fluctuations. For example, the inventory consumption ratio in 2025 reached 10.56% [19]. - In the domestic rapeseed meal supply - demand balance sheet from 2016 - 2025, the output, total demand, and inventory consumption ratio also fluctuated. The inventory consumption ratio in 2025 was 9.85% [21]. - **Other Information** - Rapeseed meal futures are in a low - level oscillation, while the spot price is relatively stable, and the spot premium remains at a relatively high level [22]. - The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market has narrowed, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has fluctuated slightly [24]. - Imported rapeseed will start to arrive in February, and the import cost has rebounded from a low level [27]. - The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remains at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level [28]. - The rapeseed processing volume of oil mills has increased slightly while maintaining operation [30]. - The price of aquatic fish has fluctuated slightly, and the price of shrimps and shellfish has remained stable [38]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Fundamentals** - Rapeseed meal has oscillated and rebounded, affected by the soybean meal trend and technical consolidation. After the short - term negative impact of China's cancellation of restrictions on Canadian agricultural product exports, the market has returned to oscillation. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, but the low inventory supports the market. The post - Spring Festival demand is expected to be good. In the short - term, it is affected by the improvement of China - Canada trade relations and is oscillating weakly, while in the medium - term, it will maintain an oscillating pattern [9]. - **Basis** - The spot price is 2440, and the basis is 152, indicating a premium over the futures, which is a bullish signal [9]. - **Inventory** - The total domestic rapeseed meal inventory is 43.78 tons, compared with 44.95 tons last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.6%. Compared with 50.2 million tons in the same period last year, it has decreased by 12.79%, which is a bullish signal [9]. - **Market** - The price is above the 20 - day moving average but is moving downward, showing a neutral signal [9]. - **Main Position** - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and the funds have flowed out, showing a bearish signal [9]. - **Expectation** - Rapeseed meal has bottomed out and rebounded due to the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations. Considering that the domestic rapeseed meal has entered the supply - demand off - season recently, it will maintain an oscillating pattern after the overall negative factors are digested. Attention should be paid to the future development of China - Canada trade relations [9].