中加贸易关系

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大越期货菜粕早报-20251010
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 02:34
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-10-10 大越期货投资咨询部:王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 1.国内水产养殖进入长假后淡季,现货市场供应短期进入偏紧预期,需 求端逐渐减少压制盘面预期,加拿大油菜籽进入收割阶段,但中加贸易问题 影响短期出口减少国内供应预期。 2.中国对加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销调查初步裁定成立,并开始征收进口 保证金75.8%,一旦最终裁定成立,保证金将作为加征关税不予退还,但是 未来裁定结果尚有变数,等待中加贸易关系进一步发展情况明朗再行决定。 3.全球油菜籽今年产量保持增产,主要加拿大油菜籽产量高于预期。 4.俄乌冲突尚在进行,乌克兰油菜籽减产和俄罗斯油菜籽产量增加相对 抵消影响,全球地缘冲突 ...
菜粕周报:政策面扰动,菜粕维持震荡-20250929
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 03:03
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 政策面扰动,菜粕维持震荡 (菜粕周报9.22-9.26) 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 1.基本面:菜粕震荡回落,豆粕带动和技术性震荡整理,市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜籽进 口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季,库存维持低位支撑盘面,但 国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数,盘面短期受消息面影响维持震荡。 中性 2.基差:现货2520,基差115,升水期货。偏多 3.库存:菜粕库存1.75万吨,上周1.8万吨,周环比减少2.78%,去年同期2.2万吨,同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面:价格在20日均线下方且方向向下。偏空 5.主力持仓 ...
中方不买油菜籽,加拿大损失惨重,计划派人访华,请中国取消反制
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 00:56
中方不买油菜籽,这一举动给加拿大带来了惨重损失,加方已经计划派人访华,希望中国取消反制。那么,中方为何会反制加拿大的油菜籽?加方又应如何 改变这一现状呢? 近一年来,中加贸易关系持续紧张。尤其是去年加拿大跟随美国对华政策,对中国电动车征收100%关税,对钢铁和铝产品征收25%关税,中方则采取反制 措施。今年8月,中国商务部经过调查,认定加拿大油菜籽存在倾销,对所有加拿大公司加征75.8%的保证金。 这一决定直接让加拿大失去了中国这个价值49亿美元的市场,油菜籽行业立刻陷入困境。加拿大西部地区4万名农户,人均损失数万美元,行业普遍感到不 安。相关数据显示,加拿大是全球最大的油菜籽出口国,中国长期是其最大买家之一。 与此同时,当地时间9月23日,加拿大外交部长阿南德在接受采访时表示,她将在未来几周访问中国和印度,目的是修复近年来的紧张关系。她把贸易、气 候变化、防务和安全列为主要议题,也提到加拿大希望推动自身利益在合作中处于核心位置。 一直以来,中国的态度一直明确。中方强调,加拿大应从维护多边贸易体制和中加关系大局出发,停止错误做法,否则中方将采取一切必要措施,维护自身 企业的合法权益。事实上,反制措施并非突然出 ...
苦求无果后,卡尼发现不妙,中国买了9船油菜籽,但不是加拿大的
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-27 04:05
更令加方担忧的是,尽管加拿大国会议员和萨斯喀彻温省省长莫伊于9月初率团访华,试图说服中方取消油菜籽进口关税,但中方不仅没有让步,反而开始 拓展与其他油菜籽出口大国的合作。其中,澳大利亚很可能取代加拿大在中国市场的地位。 加拿大政府近期在贸易领域遭遇了令人意外的转折。在多次努力无果后,他们惊讶地发现中国转向其他国家采购了9船油菜籽,而这些订单并未落入加拿大 供应商手中。这一变化引发了诸多疑问:为何中国不再从加拿大进口油菜籽?这一转变又将对加拿大经济产生怎样的连锁反应? 9月23日,正在纽约参加联合国大会的加拿大外长阿南德透露,计划在未来数周内访问中国,旨在缓解两国紧张的双边关系。同日,加拿大总理卡尼在与中 方高层会晤时确认了这一访问计划,并表示期待在合适时机与中国领导人会面。卡尼特别强调,中加两国在清洁能源、传统能源及农业等多个领域都存在巨 大的合作潜力。 值得注意的是,加拿大此前追随美国的对华政策,在去年对中国电动汽车征收100%的高额关税,并对中国产钢铁、铝制品加征关税。但随着美国关税政策 对加拿大自身经济损害日益显现,加方不得不调整策略,寻求改善对华贸易关系。 业内分析人士指出,加拿大商界、分析师及地方政 ...
油料产业周报:中美谈判未果,阿根廷政策主导盘面破位下跌-20250923
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 11:28
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is the short - term negative sentiment from Argentina's export tax exemption policy. Argentina's old - crop sales progress is about 60% - 70%, with a potential export volume of up to 10 million tons to China. However, the purchase gap in China in the fourth quarter is less than 10 million tons. The policy's duration until next year is still uncertain. In terms of valuation, the prices of Argentine soybean meal and soybeans have only slightly decreased, providing some cost support for the domestic soybean meal futures. In the long - term, the soybean supply affected by Sino - US trade relations should be monitored [1]. - Rapeseed meal futures generally follow the trend of soybean meal in the short - term. After the Sino - Canadian talks, China has extended the anti - dumping investigation, making rapeseed products stronger than soybeans before November. After November, the arrival of Australian rapeseed may increase the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal by the end of the year [1]. - In the near - term, the supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and the inventory of soybean meal is increasing seasonally. Rapeseed meal is weaker but relatively stronger than soybean meal. The downstream demand for pre - holiday stocking has ended, and the subsequent purchasing sentiment is expected to be limited. After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the pressure on soybean and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has increased again, leading to a supply - dominated market [3]. - In the long - term, the import profit of soybeans is weakening, indicating a relief of supply pressure. Without purchasing US soybeans, there will be a supply gap for imported soybeans in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. Due to Sino - Canadian tariffs, there will also be a supply gap for rapeseed meal in the long - term, but the demand may decline simultaneously. With the supply of rapeseed from other sources, the inventory will decrease in the fourth quarter and slightly recover in the first quarter of next year [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term focus is on Argentina's export tax exemption policy. The old - crop sales progress is 60% - 70%, with a potential export of up to 10 million tons to China. The policy's impact on the market depends on its duration and China's purchase demand. In the long - term, Sino - US trade relations will affect soybean supply [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It follows soybean meal in the short - term. Before November, it is stronger than soybeans due to Sino - Canadian relations. After November, the arrival of Australian rapeseed may change the inventory situation [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to be range - bound. The M2601 contract is predicted to oscillate between 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through these ranges [18]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Reduce or liquidate previous long positions. Consider a covered call strategy by selling a 3300 - strike call option as a covered opening position, and hold previous covered opening positions [18]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of soybean meal is expected to be between 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.8% and a historical percentile of 3.8% over three years [22]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, feed mills, and oil mills based on their inventory and procurement situations [25]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have declined, while the price of CBOT yellow soybeans remained unchanged, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased slightly [26]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal have shown different changes, with the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal strengthening and the spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal narrowing [27]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs of US and Brazilian soybeans have decreased, and the pressing profits of Brazilian soybeans are positive but declining. The pressing profits of Canadian rapeseed are relatively high [28]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: According to the USDA crop report, as of September 21, the US soybean harvest progress was 9%, and the corn good - to - excellent rate was 61%. The dry weather in the US Midwest may accelerate the harvest. The USDA export inspection report showed that the cumulative soybean export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season increased by 25.9% year - on - year, reaching 3.43% of the annual export target. China has purchased up to nine ships of Australian rapeseed, equivalent to about 8% of last year's total imports [28][29][30]. - **Negative Information**: Argentina has cancelled export taxes on soybeans, grains, and related products from now until October 31 to stimulate exports, which may increase supply and put pressure on international prices. As of last Thursday, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 0.9%, and the upcoming rainfall may accelerate planting. The US EPA's new policy on small refinery exemptions has not clarified the market, leading to a significant decline in Chicago soybean oil futures [31][32]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically completed, and near - term spot purchases are mainly on a need - to - use basis [33]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data. - Tuesday: Brazilian Secex weekly report and USDA crop growth report. - Thursday: USDA export sales report. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural product position report [41]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures price first declined, then rebounded, and finally broke through the support level. Rapeseed meal generally followed the trend of soybean meal but was relatively stronger. Some short - position holders in key profitable seats of soybean and rapeseed meal futures reduced their positions slightly, while foreign - funded seats increased short positions. The crowded long - position seats suggest limited downward space [37]. - **International Market**: The domestic and international markets showed different trends. Before the Sino - US trade negotiation, the international market strengthened, and the domestic market weakened. After the negotiation, the situation reversed. Subsequently, the international soybean market declined due to Argentina's export policy. The net long - position of CBOT soybean managed funds decreased and fluctuated around zero, indicating unclear short - term capital direction [60][64]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The pressing profit in US soybean production areas is strong due to biodiesel policies, and the monthly pressing volume remains at a high level. The pressing profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) are average, and exports may reduce domestic pressing volume. The domestic pressing profit of Canadian rapeseed is neutral [66]. 4.2 Import - Export Pressing Profit Tracking - The pressing profit of Brazilian soybeans in China is positive but declining. China will continue to mainly import Brazilian soybeans as they are more profitable than US soybeans with a 23% tariff. The available export volume of Brazilian soybeans is limited, and the domestic soybean pressing volume may decline seasonally. Although importing rapeseed can yield pressing profits, the purchase of rapeseed will still be cautious due to import margin requirements [74]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - For this month's new - crop balance sheet, the planted area is expected to increase marginally after a significant downward revision in August, and the yield per acre is expected to decrease marginally after reaching a record high. The total production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. The domestic pressing demand will continue to grow due to biodiesel policies, while the export demand will remain weak due to Sino - US trade relations. If Sino - US trade resumes, exports may exceed normal levels. The ending inventory is expected to be moderately tight [81]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projection - China's soybean imports will decline rapidly in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed imports will remain low. The production of soybean meal will also decrease in the fourth quarter, and there may be 2 - 3 ships of imported soybean meal if there is an import profit. Argentina will mainly export soybeans to China [83]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projection - The inventory of soybeans carried over from the third quarter and the arrival of new imports in the fourth quarter will maintain a high level of domestic soybean pressing volume, but it will decline in the fourth quarter. After the previous high - level stocking, the consumption of soybean meal is unlikely to increase significantly [86]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projection - The inventory of soybeans in China is at a seasonal high but will decline in the fourth quarter as imports decrease. The inventory of soybean meal will also decline rapidly due to the reduction of raw material inventory and pressing volume [88].
大越期货菜粕早报-20250923
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 02:43
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-09-23 大越期货投资咨询部:王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601:2480至2540区间震荡 1.基本面:菜粕冲高回落,中加贸易关系仍有变数和技术性震荡整理,市场回归震荡等待加 拿大油菜籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季,库存维持低位 支撑盘面,但国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数,盘面短期受消息面 影响维持震荡。中性 2.基差:现货2620,基差92,升水期货。偏多 3.库存:菜粕库存1.75万吨,上周1.8万吨,周环比减少2.78%,去年同期2.2万吨,同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面:价格在20日均线下方 ...
大越期货菜粕早报-20250919
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 02:23
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2440 - 2500. It is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and the rumor of tariff reduction. It has fallen after a rise and will return to a short - term shock pattern [9]. - The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal fluctuates narrowly. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and there are still variables in Sino - Canadian trade consultations, causing the market to fall due to news [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final result is still variable [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukraine's rapeseed production and the increase in Russia's production offset each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 10th to 18th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3004 - 3059 yuan, and the trading volume ranged from 4.9 - 39.05 million tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal ranged from 2560 - 2620 yuan, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with only 0.08 million tons on September 15th. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 434 - 459 yuan [13]. - From September 10th to 18th, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main 2601 contract ranged from 2460 - 2567 yuan, the far - month 2605 contract ranged from 2357 - 2420 yuan, and the rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian ranged from 2540 - 2620 yuan [15]. - From September 8th to 18th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 10403 to 9504 [16]. - The price of rapeseed meal futures fluctuated downwards, the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot premium increased slightly [17]. - The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract fluctuated at a low level [19]. - The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs [22]. - The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills remained low, and the inventory of rapeseed meal decreased slightly [24]. - The rapeseed crushing volume in oil mills fluctuated slightly [26]. - The price of aquatic fish increased slightly, and the price of shrimp and shellfish remained stable [33]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed out [9].
菜粕早报-20250918
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-09-18 02:08
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2440 - 2500. It has returned to a volatile pattern due to uncertainties in the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed and rumors of tariff cuts between China and Canada. The market is waiting for further developments [9]. - The spot demand for rapeseed meal is in the peak season in the short term, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and Sino - Canadian trade consultations are still uncertain, causing the market to decline due to news [9]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the 2440 - 2500 range. The fundamental situation is neutral, the basis is positive, inventory is positive, the disk is negative, the main position is negative, and the future is expected to be volatile [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains good expectations [11]. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodities [11]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and low inventory pressure on oil mills [12]. - Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result between China and Canada [12]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 8th to 16th, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2580 - 2620 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively small [13]. - From September 9th to 17th, the price of rapeseed meal futures fluctuated, and the spot price was relatively stable. The spot premium slightly expanded [15][18]. - From September 5th to 17th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts first increased and then decreased [17]. - The import volume of rapeseed in September remained stable, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The oil mill's rapeseed inventory remained low, rapeseed meal inventory decreased slightly, and the oil mill's rapeseed crushing volume fluctuated slightly [23][25][27]. - Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - Not provided
油脂周报:双月报中性偏空油脂预计维持震荡格局-20250915
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 05:39
Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The p2601 contract is expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation. The tight situation in Southeast Asia has quickly eased with the arrival of the production season, but the high output at the beginning of the season has raised concerns about over - exhausting subsequent production. With strong expected exports, inventory accumulation will be slow. The Indonesian B40 policy has been well - implemented, which may support consumption. Domestic near - month imports are expected to decline year - on - year, with little supply - demand contradiction [3]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The y2601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Overseas, US soybean planting area is down, but the yield per unit is up due to good conditions, and the bearish factors are mostly digested. Brazilian selling pressure has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong. Domestically, the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean oil is loose, but it will turn tight from the fourth quarter [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: In the oscillating upward phase, the later price center is expected to rise. The Ol601 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Globally, the inventory pressure of rapeseed is limited in 2024/25, but the price may be suppressed in 2025/26. Domestically, rapeseed oil inventory is at a five - year high, but future supply is expected to tighten [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Southeast Asian Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) crude palm oil futures prices were mainly in a weak oscillation this week, with the center of gravity moving slightly down [15]. - **Malaysian Data**: As of the end of August, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased by 1.18% to 2 million tons, production in August rose by 2.35% to 1.86 million tons, and exports decreased by 0.2% to 1.28 million tons. From September 1 - 10, exports decreased, and production in the south decreased [19]. - **Indonesian Data**: In June, Indonesia's palm oil exports reached 3.6 million tons, up nearly 50% from May, and production was 5.29 million tons, up 30.62% year - on - year. The inventory in June decreased by 12.76% to 2.53 million tons. Indonesia raised the reference price of crude palm oil in September [19]. - **Indian Market**: India lowered the import tariff of crude edible oils in May. Imports increased in June - July. Future imports are expected to remain high for festival stocking, but the import variety structure may change [31]. US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Market Performance**: This week, CBOT soybean futures rose after oscillation. The US soybean yield per unit is expected to be 53.5 bushels per acre, and the production will be 4.301 billion bushels. The carry - over inventory is up by 10 million bushels [39][40]. - **Crop Conditions**: As of September 7, the soybean pod - setting rate was 97%, the defoliation rate was 22%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 64%. As of September 9, about 22% of the soybean - producing areas were affected by drought [40][46]. South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - **Production Forecast**: The USDA's August report slightly increased the production forecast for South America in 2024/25. Brazil's production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 175 million tons, and Argentina's will be 48.5 million tons [73]. - **Export Situation**: Brazil's export peak has passed, and the premium is expected to remain strong due to the extension of Sino - US tariffs [72][73]. Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - **Supply Situation**: In 2024/25, the global rapeseed supply tightened marginally. In 2025/26, the USDA expects a restorative increase in production. China has imposed anti - dumping deposit policies on Canadian rapeseed, and the supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter [83]. - **Production Forecast**: Canada is expected to produce 19.937 million tons of rapeseed in 2025/26, and the EU is expected to produce 18.84 million tons in 2025/26 [91]. Domestic Oils - **Market Performance**: This week, the three major domestic oils maintained an oscillating pattern. Palm and soybean oils declined slightly, while rapeseed oil was basically flat [111]. - **Supply - Demand Outlook**: Palm oil inventory accumulation will be slow, and the p2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Soybean oil supply will turn tight from the fourth quarter, and the y2001 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. Rapeseed oil supply is expected to be tight in the fourth quarter, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [112][113]. - **Production and Consumption**: In the 36th week, the actual soybean - pressing soybean oil production was 437,700 tons. As of September 5, the rapeseed - pressing volume in southern coastal factories was 29,000 tons. This week, the national key oil - mill palm oil trading volume was 13,833 tons [115][116]. - **Cost - Profit**: The import cost and import profit of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are provided in the report [131][135][136]. - **Inventory**: As of September 8, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.4996 million tons, a decrease of 0.25% from last week and an increase of 22.24% year - on - year [139].
加拿大财长办公室:将评估对华电动车、钢铝关税是否适用
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-05 13:57
Core Viewpoint - Canada is reviewing tariffs imposed on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum, following a year of significant trade tensions between Canada and China, particularly regarding canola products [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Review and Government Actions - The Canadian government has initiated a review of the tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, steel, and aluminum to assess the current tax rates' validity [1]. - The review is expected to officially start next month, with updates to be provided at appropriate times [1]. - Since the implementation of these tariffs, the import volume of the affected products has significantly decreased [1]. Group 2: Trade Delegation to China - A parliamentary secretary will accompany a trade delegation to China, indicating a potential shift in the Canadian government's approach to trade relations with China [2][8]. - The delegation, led by Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, aims to negotiate the canola import guarantee issue and foster dialogue for a closer trade relationship [3][6]. - This visit marks the first time in six years that a Canadian provincial leader has led a delegation to China [6]. Group 3: Broader Trade Implications - The Saskatchewan government is seeking to address not only canola but also tariffs on other Canadian products such as peas, pork, and seafood during the visit [6]. - The Canadian government is also taking measures to protect jobs in the canola industry and plans to announce additional support for Canadian producers [8][10]. - There is an acknowledgment from Canadian officials that there is still room for growth in trade with China, particularly in the agricultural sector [10].