Core Insights - The article discusses the characteristics, industrial chain structure, production patterns, consumption, trade dynamics, and future trends of the propylene industry, highlighting its significance in the global chemical market [2][3][4][11][17]. Group 1: Basic Characteristics and Industrial Chain Structure - Propylene, with the chemical formula C3H6, is a leading chemical product globally, characterized as an unsaturated olefin with a planar triangular molecular structure [2]. - The physical properties of propylene include a melting point of -185.2℃, a boiling point of -47.7℃, and a liquid density of approximately 0.5139 g/cm3 at 20℃ [2]. - The propylene industrial chain is structured as a pyramid, comprising upstream diverse supply, midstream global circulation, and downstream extensive applications, with each segment closely linked [3][4]. Group 2: Production Patterns and Technological Pathways - Global propylene production capacity has expanded significantly from 56 million tons per year in 2000 to 168 million tons per year by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.5% [6]. - Northeast Asia accounts for 57% of global propylene production, with China contributing approximately 80% of the capacity increase in this region [6]. - The Middle East has seen an 837% increase in production capacity from 2000 to 2024, leveraging low-cost oil and gas resources [6]. - North America has developed a propylene production belt along the Gulf Coast, utilizing shale gas resources and propane dehydrogenation (PDH) technology [7][9]. Group 3: Consumption and Trade Dynamics - Northeast Asia is the core region for propylene consumption, accounting for 51.9% of global consumption in 2023, with China being the primary market [11]. - The consumption structure in North America shows a stable 11.8% share, with high-end polypropylene products making up 40% of the region's consumption [11]. - Global propylene trade exhibits a "multipolar cycle" characteristic, with China reducing its import dependency from 14% in 2019 to 3.5% in 2024 [12]. Group 4: China's Propylene Industry - China's propylene industry has undergone three development phases, significantly altering the global supply-demand landscape [14][15]. - The current phase is characterized by a shift towards quality improvement, with a diverse production structure including PDH (35%), steam cracking (29%), coal-to-olefins (18%), and catalytic cracking (18%) [15]. Group 5: Future Trends and Challenges - Global propylene capacity is expected to continue expanding, reaching 180 million tons by 2026, with China accounting for over 45% of this capacity [17]. - The fluctuation in raw material prices, particularly the price difference between propane and naphtha, significantly impacts the economic viability of production methods [17]. - The industry faces challenges in balancing raw material security, cost control, and low-carbon transformation, which will reshape the competitive landscape of the international energy and chemical markets [17].