1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market of logs still faces challenges under the dual pressure of weakening real - estate demand and increasing port inventories in the medium - to - long term. The exchange's multiple log simulated deliveries and the relatively large scale difference between the national standard and market scales support the current disk. There is an expectation of delivery valuation repair in the market near the delivery date [6]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Spot prices: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.35%. The price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is flat week - on - week. Supply: The expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs this week is about 416,000 cubic meters, an increase of 57,976 cubic meters from last week. The total inventory of coniferous logs is 3.45 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1.77%. Demand: From January to May 2022, the new housing construction area in the country was 520 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 59,800 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 5.23% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.61%. Import cost: The lowest CFR price of radiata pine this month is 108.5 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. The downstream terminal market is still sluggish [6]. Strategies - Unilateral: Near the delivery date, radical investors can allocate a small number of long positions due to the expectation of delivery valuation repair. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [7] Second Part: Core Logic Analysis Log Supply - Short - term Arrival Volume of Logs Increases Significantly - In April 2025, the number of departing ships from New Zealand was about 63, a month - on - month decrease of 3. The total shipment was about 1.727 million cubic meters, a 14% decrease from March. 51 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.397 million cubic meters, an 16% decrease from March. In May 2025, the number of expected departing ships is about 58, a month - on - month decrease of 5. The total shipment is about 1.955 million cubic meters, a 13% increase from April. It is expected that 49 ships will go to China, with a shipment of about 1.644 million cubic meters, an 18% increase from April. From June 16 - 22, 2025 (the 25th week), 18 ports in China are expected to receive 12 ships of New Zealand logs, a week - on - week increase of 2, a 20% increase. The arrival volume is about 416,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 16% [15]. Log Inventory - High Overall Port Inventory and Inventory Accumulation - As of June 13, 2025, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs is 3.45 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 cubic meters, a 1.77% increase. The radiata pine inventory is 2.72 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 30,000 cubic meters, a 1.09% decrease. The North American log inventory is 300,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 70,000 cubic meters, a 30.43% increase. The spruce/fir inventory is 220,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from last week [18]. Log Demand - Outbound Volume Drops from High Levels, and Real - Estate Construction Remains at a Low Level - As of June 13, 2025, the national average daily outbound volume of logs is 59,800 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 5.23% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.61%. As of June 17, the sample construction site's fund availability rate is 59.05%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points. The non - housing construction project fund availability rate is 60.97%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The housing construction project fund availability rate is 49.51%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 percentage points [24]. Third Part: Weekly Data Tracking Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices - Shandong: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week, a 1.35% week - on - week increase and an 11.76% year - on - year decrease. - Jiangsu: The price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is flat week - on - week and an 8.43% year - on - year decrease. - Shandong: The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port is flat week - on - week and a 6.84% year - on - year decrease [31]. Downstream Timber Square Prices - Radiata pine timber square: The spot price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber square logs (including tax and transportation) remains stable. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1240 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1250 yuan/cubic meter. - Spruce/white pine timber square: The spot price of 3000*40*90 white pine timber square logs (including tax and transportation) remains stable. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1700 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1670 yuan/cubic meter. The price of construction timber squares is expected to be stronger next week due to the increase in raw material prices [34]. Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine FOB price: In June 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine from New Zealand is in the range of 108.5 - 111 US dollars per JAS cubic meter. - Spruce FOB price: As of June 22, 2025, the main FOB price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter spruce in Europe in June is 123 euros per JAS cubic meter, the same as in May and 2 euros per JAS cubic meter lower than the same period last year [39].