1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, the log market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with inventory de - stocking slow and the fundamentals remaining loose. The LG2601 contract is currently undervalued relative to cost, but its valuation repair is restricted by the weak supply - demand pattern, with limited upside potential [5][6][39] - The report recommends three investment strategies: for single - side trading, go long on LG2601 at lows based on the October price floor, and if inventory accumulates significantly again, go short in small quantities; for arbitrage, focus on the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage; for options, sell LG2501 - C - 800 [7][40] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the log supply side maintained an "external increase and internal accumulation" pattern. New Zealand's September shipment was 1.766 million cubic meters (+6%), and the first four - week departure in October was 1.34 million cubic meters, still 8% higher year - on - year. The full - month estimate was 1.75 - 1.8 million cubic meters, a new high for the year. The inventory of 13 domestic ports first increased and then decreased, reaching 2.94 million cubic meters at the end of the month, 22% higher year - on - year. The demand side was generally "lackluster in the peak season." The average daily port delivery was 61,600 cubic meters, a slight 1.4% month - on - month decrease and 11% year - on - year decrease. The real estate capital availability rate hovered at 59.6%, and the cumulative new housing starts were - 21%. The United States imposed a 10% - 25% tariff on softwood and cabinets starting from October 14, causing export orders in the Yangtze River Delta to decline [5] 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The LG2601 contract is currently undervalued relative to cost, with the futures price significantly lower than the Shandong warehouse receipt cost and also in an inverted relationship with the duty - paid cost calculated from the November New Zealand radiata pine CFR quote. However, the valuation repair is restricted by the fundamentals, as port inventory remains high, supply pressure may continue to be released in November, and the demand side is lackluster in the peak season, with the average daily delivery volume declining year - on - year [6] 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - Single - side: Go long on LG2601 at lows based on the October price floor, and if inventory accumulates significantly again, go short in small quantities. Arbitrage: Focus on the 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage. Options: Sell LG2501 - C - 800 [7] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Radiata pine: The log market was "warm externally and cold internally," with prices showing a trend of "initially stable and then secretly decreasing." The domestic and imported radiata pine prices moved basically in sync, while the sawn timber prices declined continuously due to weak terminal demand. The cost of imports increased, leading to a sharp drop in domestic ship - booking willingness and a 40% month - on - month decrease in new orders at the end of October [11][12] - Spruce/fir: In October, the spruce - fir market was characterized by "external price concessions, rising spot prices, and stable sawn timber prices." The European suppliers lowered their quotes, but the depreciation of the RMB against the euro offset most of the decline. The spot prices rose due to the shortage of large - diameter timber at ports, and the sawn timber prices remained stable, with processing profits being better than those of radiata pine [13][16] 3.2.2 Futures Market Review - As of October 31, 2025, the main log futures contract LG2601 on the Dalian Commodity Exchange showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with a significant downward shift in the price center compared to the beginning of the month. It was mainly influenced by the reversal of policy expectations, the weak supply - demand pattern, and market sentiment changes [20] 3.2.3 Supply Increase and High Inventory - Overseas shipment: The New Zealand log departure volume remained high in October, but the growth rate slowed down marginally. The export was mainly targeted at China, accounting for over 75%, and the shipping cost fluctuations also affected the shipment rhythm [25] - Domestic arrival: The New Zealand log arrival volume in October showed a "low - then - high" pulsed rhythm. The total arrival volume in October was expected to reach 1.75 - 1.8 million cubic meters, a 20% increase from September, a new high for the year. The mismatch between high arrival and weak demand intensified the port inventory pressure [26] - Inventory change: The domestic log inventory in October showed a trend of "first accumulating and then decreasing," with the end - of - month total still higher than that at the end of September. Although there was marginal de - stocking in the middle and late October, the total inventory was still over 20% higher than the previous year, and the regional structure imbalance was still prominent [29] 3.2.4 Weak Real Estate, Low Delivery, and Weak Demand - Real estate demand: In October, the commercial housing transaction area declined month - on - month, and the new housing start - up willingness of real estate enterprises remained at a low level. The capital availability rate of construction sites was low, and the wood square orders decreased by about 15% year - on - year. The real estate demand for logs was basically flat month - on - month and decreased by 20% year - on - year, with limited seasonal recovery before the end of the year [33] - Log delivery volume: The port delivery volume showed a trend of "rising first and then falling." The average daily delivery volume in October was 61,600 cubic meters, lower than the September average and 11% lower year - on - year. The "high arrival + low delivery" situation continued, and the port de - stocking speed was much slower than in previous years [35] - Other demand and policy changes: The demand for furniture and packaging materials both weakened. The United States imposed tariffs on cabinets and softwood logs, causing a 20% - 30% decline in export orders in the Yangtze River Delta. The domestic "trade - in" subsidy had a concentrated release in September, and the furniture retail sales increased year - on - year but had limited incremental demand for logs. Policy factors such as US tariffs and EU anti - dumping measures suppressed external demand, while domestic fiscal support for forest tending was beneficial for long - term supply but had no short - term demand increase [36] 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The log supply side maintained an "external increase and internal accumulation" pattern in October, and the demand side was "lackluster in the peak season." The supply - demand imbalance led to slow inventory de - stocking. The LG2601 contract is undervalued relative to cost, but the weak supply - demand pattern restricts its upside potential. The recommended strategies are the same as those in the preface summary [39][40]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the log spot market this week showed a weakly stable pattern of "both supply and demand increasing, with prices under pressure." The cost of imported logs has increased, providing rigid support to the futures market, but the spot market is weakening, and the basis is expected to turn negative. The inventory is still at a high level, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The demand is limited, and the impact of new US tariffs on export orders may be concentrated in early November. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see mainly, and aggressive investors can consider short - positions in small amounts [6][7] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Comprehensive Analysis**: The log spot market fundamentals are in a weakly stable pattern. The arrival volume at ports increased by 5% week - on - week to 438,000 cubic meters, 13 - port inventory decreased by 2.3% to 2.92 million cubic meters, and the daily average outbound volume increased by 10.3% to 63,200 cubic meters. The main port price of radiata pine remained flat at 760 - 780 yuan/cubic meter, knot - free wood dropped by 20 yuan/cubic meter, and spruce rose by 30 yuan due to shortage. The November overseas offer increased by 5 dollars to 120 dollars [6] - **Logic Analysis**: In November, the import cost of New Zealand radiata pine increased by about 40 yuan/cubic meter, supporting the futures market. However, the spot price of knot - free wood has fallen, and the market expects the general wood to follow suit. The basis is expected to turn negative. The inventory is still high, and the risk of inventory accumulation remains. The new US tariffs may impact export orders in November, and the demand is limited. For the 2501 contract, if the spot price falls below 750 yuan, the seller's hedging window will open [6] - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see mainly, and aggressive investors can consider short - positions in small amounts. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - Cost: The import cost of New Zealand radiata pine in November has increased, providing support to the futures market, but the spot price is weakening, and the basis is expected to change [6] - Inventory: The 13 - port inventory is still at a high level, and the risk of inventory accumulation remains after the end of the low - price sales in Jiangsu [6] - Demand: The new US tariffs may impact export orders, and the consumption intensity is limited due to the combination of "improved funds + reduced construction starts" in housing and non - housing projects [6] - Delivery: For the 2501 contract, the cost of registered warehouse receipts is around 810 - 820 yuan/cubic meter, and the futures price is at a premium. If the spot price falls, the seller's hedging window will open [6] 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Log Supply**: From October 18 - 24, 2025, 11 ships with 410,000 cubic meters of logs left New Zealand ports, a decrease of 1 ship and 50,000 cubic meters week - on - week. 8 ships with 310,000 cubic meters were directly sent to China, an increase of 1 ship and 50,000 cubic meters. From October 20 - 26, 2025, 12 ships with about 438,000 cubic meters of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters week - on - week [17] - **Log Inventory**: As of October 17, the total log inventory in China was 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters week - on - week. The radiata pine inventory was 2.41 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters; the North American log inventory remained unchanged at 90,000 cubic meters; the spruce/fir inventory increased by 10,000 cubic meters to 200,000 cubic meters [20] - **Log Demand**: As of October 17, the daily average outbound volume of 13 ports was 63,200 cubic meters, an increase of 5,900 cubic meters week - on - week. The capital availability rate of construction sites increased, but the number of projects decreased. The capital improvement was concentrated in the southwest and east regions and large - scale central enterprises [25] - **Log Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Rizhao Port remained at 760 yuan/cubic meter; in Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Taicang Port remained at 780 yuan/cubic meter. The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + spruce in Rizhao Port rose by 30 yuan to 1,180 yuan/cubic meter due to shortage [33] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: The mainstream transaction price of radiata pine timber in Shandong was 1,280 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 1,270 yuan/cubic meter. The mainstream transaction price of spruce/white pine timber in Shandong was 1,830 yuan/cubic meter, and in Jiangsu was 1,680 yuan/cubic meter [38] - **Import Log Costs**: In October 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine increased by 1 dollar to 115 dollars/cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce decreased by 3 euros to 125 euros/cubic meter. Some foreign merchants reported the November CFR price of New Zealand radiata pine at 120 dollars/cubic meter, an increase from October [44]

Group 1: Report's Overall Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The log market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with log prices stabilizing. New Zealand's winter production cut may ease import pressure, but domestic demand recovery depends on infrastructure project implementation and real - estate policy effects. If real - estate construction funds remain low and overseas shipments resume, inventory may accumulate again, pressuring prices [7] Group 3: Summary by Directory I. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies A. Comprehensive Analysis - **Price**: This week, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Rizhao is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week; the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A logs in Taicang is 770 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged week - on - week. The average price of construction timber is 1290 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.38% week - on - week [7] - **Supply**: This week, the expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs is 212,000 cubic meters, down 50% week - on - week; the total log inventory is 3.02 million cubic meters, up 2.72% week - on - week. New Zealand's September shipment volume is expected to be the same as August (about 1.666 million cubic meters), but seasonal production cuts after October may lead to supply contraction. China's imports from January to July decreased by 6.57% year - on - year, mainly due to reduced imports of North American and European logs [7] - **Demand**: The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 62,900 cubic meters, up 2.78% week - on - week. The newly started area of real estate from January to August decreased by 20% year - on - year, and the average daily outbound volume at ports dropped to about 60,000 cubic meters from July to August [7] - **Import Cost**: The main CFR price of radiata pine this month is 114 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2% month - on - month [7] B. Strategies - **Single - side trading**: Given weak supply and demand and cost support, it is recommended to mainly wait and see. Aggressive investors can set up a small number of long positions [8] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Wait and see [8] II. Core Logic Analysis A. Log Supply - **Expected Shipment Volume of New Zealand Logs**: In August 2025, about 44 ships left New Zealand ports, 3 less than in July, with a total shipment of about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. 35 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82%, an 8% decrease from July. From September 13 - 19, 2025, 11 ships with 420,000 cubic meters of logs left New Zealand ports, an increase of 2 ships and 90,000 cubic meters week - on - week. All 11 ships and 420,000 cubic meters were directly bound for China, an increase of 6 ships and 240,000 cubic meters week - on - week. From September 15 - 21, 2025, 6 ships of New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, 6 less than last week, a 50% week - on - week decrease; the arrival volume was about 212,000 cubic meters, a 50% week - on - week decrease [18] B. Log Inventory - **Domestic Log Inventory by Material**: As of September 12, the total domestic log inventory by material was 3.02 million cubic meters, an increase of 80,000 cubic meters or 2.72% week - on - week. Radiata pine inventory was 2.47 million cubic meters, up 80,000 cubic meters or 3.35% week - on - week; North American log inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, down 10,000 cubic meters or 9.09% week - on - week; spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, down 10,000 cubic meters or 4.55% week - on - week [24] - **Domestic Log Inventory by Province**: As of September 12, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1.83 million cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 917,792 cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 142,163 cubic meters, an increase of 56,446 cubic meters; the total inventory of 2 ports in Hebei was 36,000 cubic meters, an increase of 15,000 cubic meters; the inventory of Dongguan Port in Guangdong was 92,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 13,000 cubic meters; the inventory of Qinzhou Port in Guangxi was 0 [24] C. Log Demand - **Domestic Port Log Outbound Volume**: As of September 12, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 62,900 cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters or 2.78% week - on - week. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 34,400 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters or 2.99% week - on - week; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 22,200 cubic meters, an increase of 6,000 cubic meters or 2.78% week - on - week; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Fujian was 4,100 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters or 14.58% week - on - week [30] - **Construction Site Fund Availability**: As of September 16, the fund availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.39%, up 0.15 percentage points week - on - week. Among them, the fund availability rate of non - real - estate construction projects was 61.21%, up 0.18 percentage points week - on - week; the fund availability rate of real - estate construction projects was 50.58%, down 0.17 percentage points week - on - week [30] III. Weekly Data Tracking A. Log Prices - **Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Rizhao this week is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and down 50 yuan/cubic meter or 6.25% year - on - year. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Taicang this week is 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and down 40 yuan/cubic meter or 4.94% year - on - year. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs in Rizhao this week is 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged week - on - week and up 60 yuan/cubic meter or 5.50% year - on - year [39] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1290 yuan/cubic meter (up 30 yuan/cubic meter), and in the Jiangsu market is 1260 yuan/cubic meter. Taking 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1830 yuan/cubic meter (up 30 yuan/cubic meter), and in the Jiangsu market is 1680 yuan/cubic meter [44] B. Import Log Costs - The outer - market price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in September 2025 is 114 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, down 2 US dollars/cubic meter from last month. The outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce logs in September 2025 is 128 euros per JAS cubic meter, unchanged from last month [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Cost - side factors like the decline in the outer - market price and RMB appreciation provide support, but weak demand due to tight housing construction funds and low出库量 limits the rebound space. The increase in New Zealand's arrival volume may lead to a slight accumulation of inventory, with regional differentiation continuing [6]. - Medium - term: New Zealand's winter production reduction (expected decline in shipments from September to November) may ease import pressure, but domestic demand recovery depends on the implementation of infrastructure projects and the effectiveness of real - estate policies. If housing construction funds remain low and overseas shipments resume, inventory may accumulate again, and prices will face pressure [6]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Price: This week, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Rizhao is 750 yuan/cubic meter, with a flat week - on - week change; the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A log in Taicang is 770 yuan/cubic meter, also with a flat week - on - week change [6]. - Supply: This week, the expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs is 402,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 23.2%; the total inventory of coniferous logs is 2.94 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.01% [6]. - Demand: The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 61,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.29% [6]. - Import cost: The CFR main price of radiata pine this month is 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a month - on - month decrease of 2% [6]. Strategies - Single - side: Considering low inventory, cost support, but weak demand, the market is expected to stabilize next week. It is recommended to wait and see. Aggressive investors can make a small - scale long - position layout [7]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to inter - period positive arbitrage [7]. - Options: Wait and see [7]. Core Logic Analysis Log Supply - New Zealand log expected shipments: In August 2025, the number of departing vessels was about 44, a month - on - month decrease of 3, and the total shipment volume was about 1.666 million cubic meters, a 4% decrease from July. Among them, 35 vessels were bound for China, with a shipment volume of about 1.36 million cubic meters, accounting for 82%, a month - on - month decrease of 8% [17]. - From September 8th to September 14th, 2025, 11 vessels of New Zealand logs are expected to arrive at 13 ports in China, an increase of 6 from last week, a week - on - week increase of 120%; the total arrival volume is about 402,000 cubic meters, an increase of 232,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 136% [17]. Log Inventory - By material: As of September 5th, the total inventory of domestic logs by material is 2.94 million cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.01%; the radiata pine inventory is 2.39 million cubic meters, a decrease of 50,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 2.05%; the North American log inventory is 110,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 8.33%; the spruce/fir inventory is 220,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 10.00% [21]. - By province: As of September 5th, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong is 1,813,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 54,000 cubic meters from the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu is 915,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 54,000 cubic meters from the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian is 85,717 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,401 cubic meters from the previous period; the total inventory of 2 ports in Hebei is 21,000 cubic meters, unchanged from the previous period; the inventory of Dongguan Port in Guangdong is 105,000 cubic meters, an increase of 27,000 cubic meters from the previous period; the inventory of Qinzhou Port in Guangxi is 0 [21]. Log Demand - As of September 5th, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 61,200 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,000 cubic meters from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.29%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong is 33,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 5.65%; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu is 21,600 cubic meters, a decrease of 11,000 cubic meters from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 4.85% [26]. - As of September 9th, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites is 59.24%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.16 percentage points. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects is 61.03%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects is 50.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.64 percentage points [26]. Weekly Data Tracking Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices - Shandong: This week, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, with a flat week - on - week change, and a decrease of 50 yuan/cubic meter compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 6.25% [34]. - Jiangsu: This week, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is 770 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, with a flat week - on - week change, and a decrease of 40 yuan/cubic meter compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 4.94% [34]. - Shandong: This week, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port is 1150 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, with a flat week - on - week change, and an increase of 40 yuan/cubic meter compared to last year, a year - on - year increase of 3.60% [34]. Downstream Timber Prices - Radiata pine timber: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1260 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is also 1260 yuan/cubic meter [39]. - Spruce/white pine timber: Taking 3000*40*90 white pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1800 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1680 yuan/cubic meter [39]. Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine outer - market price: In September 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs is 114 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 2 US dollars/cubic meter from last month [45]. - Spruce outer - market price: In September 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20+ spruce logs is 128 euros/JAS cubic meter, unchanged from last month [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market of logs still faces challenges under the dual pressure of weakening real - estate demand and increasing port inventories in the medium - to - long term. The exchange's multiple log simulated deliveries and the relatively large scale difference between the national standard and market scales support the current disk. There is an expectation of delivery valuation repair in the market near the delivery date [6]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Spot prices: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.35%. The price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is flat week - on - week. Supply: The expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs this week is about 416,000 cubic meters, an increase of 57,976 cubic meters from last week. The total inventory of coniferous logs is 3.45 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1.77%. Demand: From January to May 2022, the new housing construction area in the country was 520 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 59,800 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 5.23% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.61%. Import cost: The lowest CFR price of radiata pine this month is 108.5 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. The downstream terminal market is still sluggish [6]. Strategies - Unilateral: Near the delivery date, radical investors can allocate a small number of long positions due to the expectation of delivery valuation repair. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [7] Second Part: Core Logic Analysis Log Supply - Short - term Arrival Volume of Logs Increases Significantly - In April 2025, the number of departing ships from New Zealand was about 63, a month - on - month decrease of 3. The total shipment was about 1.727 million cubic meters, a 14% decrease from March. 51 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.397 million cubic meters, an 16% decrease from March. In May 2025, the number of expected departing ships is about 58, a month - on - month decrease of 5. The total shipment is about 1.955 million cubic meters, a 13% increase from April. It is expected that 49 ships will go to China, with a shipment of about 1.644 million cubic meters, an 18% increase from April. From June 16 - 22, 2025 (the 25th week), 18 ports in China are expected to receive 12 ships of New Zealand logs, a week - on - week increase of 2, a 20% increase. The arrival volume is about 416,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 16% [15]. Log Inventory - High Overall Port Inventory and Inventory Accumulation - As of June 13, 2025, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs is 3.45 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 cubic meters, a 1.77% increase. The radiata pine inventory is 2.72 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 30,000 cubic meters, a 1.09% decrease. The North American log inventory is 300,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 70,000 cubic meters, a 30.43% increase. The spruce/fir inventory is 220,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from last week [18]. Log Demand - Outbound Volume Drops from High Levels, and Real - Estate Construction Remains at a Low Level - As of June 13, 2025, the national average daily outbound volume of logs is 59,800 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 5.23% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.61%. As of June 17, the sample construction site's fund availability rate is 59.05%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points. The non - housing construction project fund availability rate is 60.97%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The housing construction project fund availability rate is 49.51%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 percentage points [24]. Third Part: Weekly Data Tracking Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices - Shandong: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week, a 1.35% week - on - week increase and an 11.76% year - on - year decrease. - Jiangsu: The price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is flat week - on - week and an 8.43% year - on - year decrease. - Shandong: The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port is flat week - on - week and a 6.84% year - on - year decrease [31]. Downstream Timber Square Prices - Radiata pine timber square: The spot price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber square logs (including tax and transportation) remains stable. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1240 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1250 yuan/cubic meter. - Spruce/white pine timber square: The spot price of 3000*40*90 white pine timber square logs (including tax and transportation) remains stable. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1700 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1670 yuan/cubic meter. The price of construction timber squares is expected to be stronger next week due to the increase in raw material prices [34]. Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine FOB price: In June 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine from New Zealand is in the range of 108.5 - 111 US dollars per JAS cubic meter. - Spruce FOB price: As of June 22, 2025, the main FOB price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter spruce in Europe in June is 123 euros per JAS cubic meter, the same as in May and 2 euros per JAS cubic meter lower than the same period last year [39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current downstream processing plants purchase based on inventory needs. With the recent continuous decline in log spot prices, the short - term downstream delivery has improved. It is expected that the overall spot prices will stabilize in the future, but the terminal market remains sluggish. The sustainability of price support and trading volume need to be considered. In the medium - to - long - term, the log spot market still faces challenges under the dual pressure of weakening real - estate demand and increasing port inventories [6]. - The exchange will organize multiple log simulation deliveries in the future. Attention should be paid to the size difference between the national standard size and the market size, which will greatly affect log valuation [6]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - Price: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Rizhao this week is 760 yuan/cubic meter, with a week - on - week flat. The price of 4 - meter medium - A log in Taicang is 780 yuan/cubic meter, also with a week - on - week flat. The expected log arrival volume is 18.92 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 70%. The total inventory of coniferous logs this period is 3.43 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28%. From January to May 2022, the national new housing construction area was 520 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 380 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 31.9%. The average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 61,500 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 10.35%. The CFR main price of radiata pine this month is 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a month - on - month decrease of 4% [6]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: The overall spot market is stable with a weakening trend. It is recommended to wait and see. In the short term, the futures have fallen sharply, the basis is inverted, and there is a risk of delivery valuation repair due to the delivery size difference. Aggressive investors can lay out long positions based on the previous low. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [7]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Log Supply - New Zealand log expected shipment volume: In March 2025, the expected shipment volume of New Zealand logs to China, Japan, South Korea, and India is 2.0025 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 24.17%. The expected number of ships is 66, a month - on - month increase of 13.79%. From May 12th to May 18th, 2025, in the 20th week, 18 ports are expected to have 7 coniferous log ships arriving, a week - on - week decrease of 63%. The total arrival volume is about 189,200 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 70% [15]. 3.2.2 Log Inventory - The total domestic log inventory is 3.43 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters (- 2.28%) compared with the previous period. The inventory of coniferous logs is decreasing at an accelerated pace, but there are significant differences among different species. Radiata pine inventory is 2.7 million cubic meters, an increase of 40,000 cubic meters (+ 1.50%); North American log inventory is 330,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters (- 17.50%); Spruce/fir inventory is 200,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 30,000 cubic meters (- 13.04%). Northern ports are mainly reducing inventory, while some southern ports are increasing inventory [19]. 3.2.3 Log Demand - As of May 9th, the average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 ports is 61,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 10.35% compared with the previous period. The areas with a decrease in shipment volume include Shandong, Jiangsu, and Tianjin - Hebei, while the areas with an increase include Fujian and Guangdong. As of May 13th, the sample construction site fund availability rate is 59.1%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. The non - real - estate project fund availability rate is 60.65%, a week - on - week increase of 0.18 percentage points, while the real - estate project fund availability rate is 51.33%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05 percentage points [25]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Prices - Shandong: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week is 760 yuan/cubic meter, flat compared with last week and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32%. - Jiangsu: The price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week is 780 yuan/cubic meter, flat compared with last week and a year - on - year decrease of 3.70%. - Shandong: The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week is 1110 yuan/cubic meter, a week - on - week increase of 4.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.77% [34]. 3.3.2 Downstream Timber Prices - Radiata pine timber: The spot price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber (including tax and transportation) remained stable this week. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1270 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1280 yuan/cubic meter. - Spruce/white pine timber: The spot price of 3000*40*90 white pine timber (including tax and transportation) showed a strong trend this week. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1700 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1670 yuan/cubic meter [39]. 3.3.3 Import Log Costs - In May 2025, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs is 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter, a decrease of 4 US dollars/cubic meter compared with last month. The CFR price of 11.8 - meter 20+ spruce logs is 123 euros/JAS cubic meter, an increase of 3 euros/cubic meter compared with last month. The New Zealand external price continues to decline, and the central level of log import costs continues to move down [44].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current downstream processing plants are making inventory purchases based on rigid demand. With the recent continuous decline in log spot prices, the downstream delivery has improved in the short term. It is expected that the overall spot prices will stabilize in the future, but the terminal market remains sluggish. The sustainability of price support and trading volume need to be further evaluated. In the medium to long term, under the dual pressure of weakening real estate demand and increasing port inventories, the log spot market still faces challenges [5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended that aggressive investors short against the previous high for single - side trading, pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread for arbitrage, and adopt a wait - and - see approach for options trading [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - **Price**: The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Rizhao this week is 760 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.30%. The price of 4 - meter medium - A logs in Taicang is 780 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.27% [5]. - **Supply**: In April 2025, China imported 5.34 million cubic meters of logs and sawn timber. From January to April, the import volume was 19.245 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0% [5]. - **Demand**: From January to May 2022, the national new housing construction area was 520 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 380 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 31.9%. Last week, the average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 ports was 71,600 cubic meters, remaining unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Import Cost**: The CFR main price of radiata pine this month is 108 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.3% [5]. 3.1.2 Strategies - **Single - side**: The overall spot prices are stable but weak, and the medium - to - long - term fundamentals are also generally loose. Aggressive investors can short against the previous high [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [6]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Log Supply - The expected shipment volume of New Zealand logs to China, Japan, South Korea, and India in March 2025 was 2.0025 million cubic meters, an increase of 390,000 cubic meters from the previous month, with a month - on - month increase of 24.17%. The expected number of ships was 66, an increase of 8 from the previous month, with a month - on - month increase of 13.79% [14]. 3.2.2 Log Inventory - In April, the average inventory of national coniferous logs was 3.55 million cubic meters, a decrease of 2,500 cubic meters from the average inventory of 3.5525 million cubic meters in March, a decrease of 0.07%. Among them, the average inventory of radiata pine increased by 30,000 cubic meters, North American timber decreased by 80,000 cubic meters, and spruce decreased by 20,000 cubic meters [17]. 3.2.3 Log Demand - The average daily delivery volume of logs at 13 national ports remained at 71,600 cubic meters, the same as last week, indicating stable market demand but lack of short - term upward momentum. The daily delivery volume in Shandong decreased by 7.80%, while that in Jiangsu increased by 8.12% [23]. - As of May 6, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.95%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.47%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 percentage points, and that of housing construction projects was 51.38%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.84 percentage points [23]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 Log Prices - In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Rizhao this week is 760 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.32% [30]. - In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine logs in Taicang this week is 780 yuan per cubic meter, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.70% [30]. - In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs in Rizhao this week is 1060 yuan per cubic meter, remaining unchanged from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 6.19% [30]. 3.3.2 Downstream Timber Prices - The spot price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber squares this week is running at XX. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1270 yuan per cubic meter, and that in the Jiangsu market is 1280 yuan per cubic meter [33]. - The spot price of 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber squares this week is running at XX. The mainstream transaction price in both the Shandong and Jiangsu markets is 1670 yuan per cubic meter [33]. 3.3.3 Import Log Costs - In May 2025, the quoted price range of New Zealand's radiata pine in the outer market is 105 - 110 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, about 7 - 8 US dollars per JAS cubic meter lower than in April [40]. - In April 2025, the outer - market price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 spruce logs is 120 euros per JAS cubic meter, remaining unchanged from the previous month [40].