2025年，全球木材行业在供需双弱、价格低位震荡中收官；关税壁垒与地缘贸易摩擦持续发酵，进一步放大市场不确定性。本文将在复盘2025年木材行业演 进脉络的基础上，对2026年的市场供需格局与价格走势作出预测。 北美市场：价格震荡，供应收紧 3月，美国启动木材进口贸易调查，将针对加拿大软木的反倾销与反补贴合并税率推升至30%中段；9月底再依据《232条款》追加10%从价关税，部分加拿 大出口商综合税负突破40%，出口成本陡增。 美国高额关税压制下，加拿大软木在美市场份额骤缩，订单萎缩与利润跳水并行。2025年起，Canfor、West Fraser 等头部企业相继减产甚至关停，不列颠哥 伦比亚省采伐量已跌破可持续年上限1500万立方米的半数，行业景气度降至低谷。 与此同时，受资源缺口、市场环境及国际贸易关系等多方面因素的限制，尤其是中国市场长达八个月的原木"零交易"以及连续处于低位的进口量，特朗普推 行的木材增产计划未能取得预期效果。 美加软木关税僵局与减产潮叠加，2025年北美木材期货价格呈"过山车"式震荡波动；预计2026年仍将延续"供应收紧、价格震荡"的结构性行情。同时，加拿 大有望加速向亚洲、欧洲市场分 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nature Forestry (NWGL) has experienced a stock price increase of 2.28% on December 17, reaching $1.212 per share, with a total market capitalization of $20.0624 million [1] Financial Performance - As of December 31, 2024, Nature Forestry reported total revenue of $21.5393 million, a year-on-year decrease of 15.39% [1] - The company recorded a net profit attributable to shareholders of -$8.7285 million, which represents a year-on-year increase of 26.86% [1] Company Overview - Nature Forestry Group Limited is a foreign holding company registered in the British Virgin Islands, primarily operated by its domestic subsidiary, Nature Forestry Group Limited [1] - The company is a vertically integrated forestry firm focused on FSC business operations located in Peru, producing a range of products including logs, flooring, lumber, charcoal, synthetic charcoal, briquette charcoal, and essential oils [1] - Nature Forestry holds natural forest concessions and logging rights covering approximately 615,333 hectares in Peru and collaborates with local forest owners while participating in timber auctions in France to supply logs [1] - The company is committed to sustainable forest management, efficient resource utilization, continuous product development, and consistently providing high-quality products to customers, aiming to become a leader in the timber industry by offering sustainable and high-quality wood products at reasonable prices [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The current situation features high inventory, weak spot prices, and limited upward momentum in the futures market. Short - term supply pressure has increased significantly, but long - term overseas supply may tighten. Demand is seasonally weak, and the current price has partly reflected negative expectations. In the short term, the price will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range with relatively limited downside space [1][4][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Supply side: This week, New Zealand shipped 14 vessels (510,000 cubic meters) of logs to China, a week - on - week increase of 7 vessels (220,000 cubic meters). The arrival volume at 13 Chinese ports was 465,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 48%. However, the Canadian timber industry's capacity has shrunk due to US tariffs, and with the expected winter shutdown in North America, long - term overseas supply may tighten. Inventory continues to accumulate, with the total domestic softwood log inventory at 2.95 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%. Radiata pine inventory accounts for over 80%, concentrated in Shandong and Jiangsu ports. - Demand side: Demand is seasonally weak. The average daily outbound volume at 13 ports is 65,600 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. The decline in outbound volume in Fujian and Hebei is significant. The capital availability rate of construction sites has increased slightly by 0.04 percentage points to 59.8%, but there are few new projects, and the transmission of terminal demand is limited [4]. Logic Analysis - On the spot side, the prices at major ports have dropped by 10 - 30 yuan per cubic meter. The price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine in Taicang is 750 yuan per cubic meter, a year - on - year decrease of 6.25%. The overseas market price remains at $116 but has hidden discounts, and traders' willingness to accept vessels is low, with limited cost support. The short - term arrival volume surge and inventory accumulation on the supply side suppress valuation, and the seasonal decline in demand further weakens the upward momentum of prices. The current price has partly reflected negative expectations. If overseas shipments decrease seasonally or domestic terminal demand improves, the valuation is expected to recover marginally. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range with relatively limited downside space [5]. Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. Close previous short positions. Aggressive investors can consider buying a small amount near the previous low. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [6]. Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - New Zealand log shipments: From November 17 - 23, 2025, the expected number of New Zealand log vessels arriving at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 3 vessels compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 30%. The total arrival volume was about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 48%. In October 2025, China's imports of softwood logs from New Zealand were about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of softwood logs from New Zealand were about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80%. In October 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 1.4836 million cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% and a year - on - year increase of 16.34%. From January to October 2025, China's imports of radiata pine were about 14.6481 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.35% [13]. Log Inventory - As of November 14, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.95 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.68%. Radiata pine inventory was 2.43 million cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 0.83%. North American log inventory was 90,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week decrease of 10.00%. Spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, an increase of 10,000 cubic meters compared to last week, a week - on - week increase of 5.00%. - By province, as of November 14, the total inventory at 3 ports in Shandong was 1,954,000 cubic meters, an increase of 39,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. The total inventory at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 836,562 cubic meters, an increase of 39,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. The total inventory at 3 ports in Fujian was 52,923 cubic meters, a decrease of 16,810 cubic meters compared to the previous period [16]. Log Demand - As of November 14, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 65,600 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.06%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Shandong was 36,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 12,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 3.17%. The average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 24,400 cubic meters, an increase of 16,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 7.02%. The average daily total outbound volume at 3 ports in Fujian was 2,700 cubic meters, a decrease of 11,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 28.95%. - As of November 18, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.8%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 61.11%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points. The capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 53.29%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points. Although the capital availability rate has stopped declining slightly and the construction progress of some projects in East China has accelerated slightly, the number of new projects is still small [22]. Log Prices - Radiata pine and spruce/fir prices: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan per cubic meter (6.25%). In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 750 yuan per cubic meter, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter (1.32%) and a year - on - year decrease of 50 yuan per cubic meter (6.25%). In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1,180 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from last week and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan per cubic meter (9.26%) [29]. - Downstream timber prices: For radiata pine timber, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,260 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was also 1,260 yuan per cubic meter. For spruce/white pine timber, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,830 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market, it was 1,680 yuan per cubic meter [33]. Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine FOB price: In November 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs was $116 per JAS cubic meter, an increase of $1 per cubic meter compared to last month. - Spruce FOB price: In November 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter 20 + spruce logs was 126 euros per JAS cubic meter, an increase of 1 euro per cubic meter compared to last month. In November, New Zealand log suppliers' quotes were firm, but domestic traders' willingness to accept vessels was low. There were many quote adjustments within the month, and some suppliers' offer prices had hidden discounts. It is expected that the FOB price of New Zealand radiata pine may be adjusted downward in December [39][40].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term valuation of the timber market is weak, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. The spot price shows regional differentiation, and the downstream construction timber price remains stable for the time being, forming a bottom support. In the medium - to - long - term, global timber supply faces contraction pressure, while the progress of interest rate decline and housing market recovery on the demand side needs attention [5] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Fundamental Analysis - In November, New Zealand's timber shipment volume decreased seasonally compared to October, and this week's direct shipment volume to China decreased by 108,000 cubic meters. However, the arrival volume of New Zealand logs at 13 domestic ports increased by 80% to 391,000 cubic meters, and later arrivals will be concentrated in Shandong. In addition, Jiangsu ports have tightened inspections on imported Japanese cryptomeria, and it is expected that the supply of Japanese cryptomeria will be tightened. The overall demand is weak, with the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports decreasing by 4.81% week - on - week. Only some regions such as Jiangsu and Guangdong saw an increase in outbound volume. The capital availability rate of construction sites decreased slightly, and there was no obvious boost in demand for both housing construction and non - housing construction projects. The inventory continued the slight destocking trend, with the total inventory at 2.97 million cubic meters (a 1.98% week - on - week decrease). The inventory of radiata pine and North American timber decreased, while the inventory of spruce/fir remained flat, and the overall inventory pressure was moderately relieved [4] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. Aggressive investors can place a small number of long orders near the previous low. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 1 - 3 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [6] Core Logic Analysis - The short - term valuation of the timber market is weak, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to maintain range - bound fluctuations. The spot price shows regional differentiation. The radiata pine price in Rizhao, Shandong is firm at 750 yuan per cubic meter, while the price in Taicang, Jiangsu decreased by 1.33% week - on - week to 740 yuan per cubic meter. The downstream construction timber price remains stable for the time being, forming a bottom support. In December, the foreign market price decreased by 2% month - on - month, and the stronger RMB increased the purchasing power of traders, partially offsetting the cost pressure on the supply side. In the medium - to - long - term, global timber supply faces contraction pressure, with Russia's forestry output potentially decreasing by 20% - 30% and Canadian enterprises reducing production temporarily. Meanwhile, the reforestation in countries such as China will optimize the long - term supply structure. On the demand side, attention should be paid to the progress of interest rate decline and housing market recovery [5] Weekly Data Tracking Log Supply - From November 17th to 23rd, 2025, the number of pre - arrival New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 13, an increase of 3 ships compared to last week, with a week - on - week increase of 30%. The total arrival volume was about 465,000 cubic meters, an increase of 150,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week increase of 48%. From November 29th to December 5th, 2025, a total of 7 ships with 260,000 cubic meters of logs left the New Zealand ports for shipment, a decrease of 8 ships and 336,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. Among them, 7 ships with 260,000 cubic meters were directly shipped to China, a decrease of 3 ships and 108,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period. In November, the monthly shipment volume decreased by 4 ships compared to October, showing seasonal characteristics but with a limited decline [13] Log Inventory - As of November 28th, the total domestic log inventory by material was 2.97 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.98%. The radiata pine inventory was 2.45 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.39%. The North American timber inventory was 70,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared to last week, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.50%. The spruce/fir inventory was 210,000 cubic meters, remaining the same as last week. By province, as of November 28th, the total inventory of 3 ports in Shandong was 1,986,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 79,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 850,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 79,000 cubic meters compared to the previous period; the total inventory of 3 ports in Fujian was 52,478 cubic meters, an increase of 21,511 cubic meters compared to the previous period [16] Log Demand - As of November 28th, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports was 61,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 3,100 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.81%. Among them, the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Shandong was 30,400 cubic meters, a decrease of 5,500 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 15.32%; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Jiangsu was 26,200 cubic meters, an increase of 2,600 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week increase of 11.02%; the average daily total outbound volume of 3 ports in Fujian was 2,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 800 cubic meters compared to the previous period, with a week - on - week decrease of 24.24%. As of December 2nd, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 59.49%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points week - on - week. Among them, the capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.59%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points week - on - week; the capital availability rate of housing construction projects was 54.02%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points week - on - week [20] Log Prices - **Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices**: In Shandong, the price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port this week was 750 yuan per cubic meter, remaining the same as last week and a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan per cubic meter, or 5.06%. In Jiangsu, the price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week was 740 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 10 yuan per cubic meter compared to last week, or 1.33%, and a year - on - year decrease of 60 yuan per cubic meter, or 7.50%. In Shandong, the price of 11.8 - meter 20cm + general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port this week was 1,180 yuan per cubic meter, remaining the same as last week and a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan per cubic meter, or 9.26% [24] - **Downstream Timber Prices**: Taking 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,260 yuan per cubic meter, and the same in the Jiangsu market. Taking 3000*40*90 spruce/white pine timber as an example, the mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market was 1,850 yuan per cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market was 1,680 yuan per cubic meter [28] Import Log Costs - As of the time of publication, the December foreign market price has moved down compared to the November quotation, with the quotation range being 110 - 116. Some foreign merchants have continuously reduced prices for multiple rounds, and traders tend to expect the foreign market price to be in the 112 - 113 range [34]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Natural Rubber - Short - term macro - atmosphere improves, fundamentals improve, and rubber prices rebound. Follow - up attention should be paid to raw material output in the peak production season of main producing areas and macro - level changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward space; if not, rubber prices are expected to run around 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. Logs - Currently, there is no obvious driving force in the log supply - demand situation. The 01 contract is relatively strong. New rounds of foreign quotes have increased, and subsequent port fees are expected to rise, providing strong cost support. During the seasonal peak season, there is some support below the futures price, and the 01 contract may be strong [4]. Industrial Silicon - Some industrial silicon spot prices have decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and futures have fluctuated and closed down by 20 yuan/ton to 8,485 yuan/ton. In September, exports decreased by 8% month - on - month to 70,200 tons, but still increased year - on - year. In October, industrial silicon supply has increased significantly, with inventory risks, and prices will still be under pressure. Although some enterprises in the southwest region have reduced production, the impact on output is small. Considering the possible increase in raw material costs, the price center of gravity is expected to move up in the future. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is relatively stable. On one hand, pay attention to policy implementation and production control; on the other hand, pay attention to whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side. Currently, it is mainly in a high - level shock. In November, production reduction in the southwest region during the dry season will relieve the pressure of production growth and support prices. Be vigilant against the risk of inventory accumulation due to insufficient demand [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: Driven by the strengthening of coking coal - related varieties, the soda ash futures price has rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Previously, soda ash has been weak, with manufacturers' inventories and mid - stream delivery inventories increasing. The supply is in excess. In the medium - term, downstream demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid - demand level. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the strategy of short - selling on rebounds can be continued [7]. - **Glass**: Driven by the strengthening of coking coal - related varieties, the glass futures price has rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Manufacturers' sales are average, and prices are continuously decreasing. The trading sentiment reflects that the peak season is not prosperous and the supply is in excess. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and capacity clearance is needed to solve the over - supply problem [7]. Summaries by Directory Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of SCRWF in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.70%. The basis improved by 100 yuan/ton to - 750 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.34% [1]. - The FOB intermediate price of cup - lump in the international market increased by 0.25 Thai baht/kg to 50.45 Thai baht/kg, with a growth rate of 0.50% [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 11.11% [1]. - The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamentals - In August, Thailand's production decreased by 2,000 tons to 460,800 tons, with a decline of 0.43%; Indonesia's production decreased by 8,500 tons to 189,000 tons, with a decline of 4.30%; India's production increased by 5,000 tons to 50,000 tons, with a growth rate of 11.11%; China's production increased by 12,200 tons to 113,700 tons [1]. - The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires increased by 26.21 percentage points to 72.72%, and the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 20.56 percentage points to 64.52% [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures fluctuated. The 2601 contract closed at 831.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 6.5 yuan/cubic meter [4]. - The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 760 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter [4]. Supply - As of October 17, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week [4]. - This week, 12 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 0 ships from the previous week, with a total arrival volume of about 438,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 5% [4]. Demand - As of October 17, the daily average log delivery volume was 63,200 cubic meters, an increase of 5,900 cubic meters from the previous week [4]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis of Main Contracts - The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,350 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 20 yuan/ton to 865 yuan/ton [5]. - The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,650 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 365 yuan/ton [5]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 8,445 yuan/ton to - 8,485 yuan/ton, with a decline of 21,112.50% [5]. - The 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 370 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.37% [5]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon production increased by 35,100 tons to 420,800 tons, with a growth rate of 9.10% [5]. - The production in Xinjiang increased by 33,600 tons to 203,200 tons, with a growth rate of 19.78% [5]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 10 tons to 108,500 tons, with a decline of 0.09% [5]. - The social inventory increased by 17,000 tons to 562,000 tons, with a growth rate of 3.12% [5]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The spot price of polysilicon increased by 0.2 yuan/kg to 53 yuan/kg and then stabilized; the futures price fluctuated and slightly decreased by 405 yuan/ton to 50,310 yuan/ton, with the futures at a discount [6]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The main contract decreased by 405 yuan/ton to 50,310 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.80% [6]. - The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 52,235 yuan/ton to - 50,310 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2,713.51% [6]. Fundamental Data - This week, the production of silicon wafers increased by 1.52 GW to 14.35 GW, with a growth rate of 11.85% [6]. - The production of polysilicon remained unchanged at 31,000 tons [6]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 253,000 tons, with a growth rate of 5.42% [6]. - The silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.53 GW to 17.31 GW, with a growth rate of 3.16% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,140 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.72% [7]. - The 2505 glass contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1,236 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.40% [7]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash price remained unchanged at 1,300 yuan/ton [7]. - The 2505 soda ash contract increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,308 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.77% [7]. Supply - The weekly production of soda ash increased by 25,000 tons to 770,800 tons, with a growth rate of 3.37% [7]. - The daily melting volume of float glass remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [7]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 346,900 heavy boxes to 6.2824 million heavy boxes, with a growth rate of 5.84% [7]. - The soda ash factory inventory increased by 27,000 tons to 699,100 tons, with a growth rate of 4.05% [7].

Core Insights - Putian is recognized for its dual reputation as a "dream factory for grassroots business" and a "fake goods capital" [2] - The production of high-quality counterfeit shoes in Putian has led to the registration of legitimate trademarks for these products, indicating a shift in the industry [6] Industry Overview - The shoe industry is a cornerstone of Putian's economy, with a historical foundation dating back to the 1980s when it began manufacturing for international brands like Nike and Adidas [4] - In 2020, Putian produced 1.26 billion pairs of shoes, contributing significantly to China's total shoe production of 13.5 billion pairs [4] - The local shoe industry comprises around 4,200 enterprises, providing jobs for approximately 500,000 residents [4] Profit Margins and Market Dynamics - The cost of producing a top-tier counterfeit shoe is around 300 to 400 yuan, while the retail price can soar to several thousand yuan when sold as genuine [6] - The recent trend of registering trademarks for counterfeit shoes reflects a transitional phase for Putian's shoe industry, as it seeks to move away from the stigma of counterfeiting [6] Commercial Ecosystem - Putian's geographical and social environment has fostered a strong entrepreneurial spirit, with a significant portion of its population (approximately 289 million residents) engaged in business ventures, often relying on familial and community ties [9][10] - The "clustering effect" in various industries, such as the wood industry, showcases the success of Putian's business model, where local entrepreneurs leverage shared resources and networks [11][13] Business Practices and Innovations - The prevalence of "copycat" businesses, such as gas stations mimicking established brands, highlights the competitive tactics employed by Putian entrepreneurs [15] - The invention of "Chongqing Chicken Pot," a dish created by a Putian native, exemplifies the region's adaptability and innovation in the food industry [17] Economic Impact - There are over 2 million Putian entrepreneurs globally, with more than 1.5 million operating overseas, generating an estimated annual output value of around 2 trillion yuan [18][20] - The internal focus on familial loyalty and community trust can lead to challenges in maintaining external business integrity and reputation [20] Future Outlook - For Putian to evolve into a recognized "commercial strong city," it must transform its manufacturing prowess into original brand development and integrate its community spirit into a more structured business framework [22]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Short - term drivers are limited, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate. Follow - up attention should be paid to raw material output in the peak - production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if raw material supply is poor, rubber prices are expected to trade between 15,000 - 15,500 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 16, prices of various natural rubber varieties showed different changes, with the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai rising 50 yuan to 14,300 yuan/ton, a 0.35% increase. The basis of whole latex increased by 6.98%. Other varieties also had corresponding price and basis changes [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan to - 10 yuan/ton, a - 166.67% change; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 yuan to 10 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 15 yuan to 0 yuan/ton, a 100% increase [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 20,000 tons to 458,800 tons, a - 0.43% change; Indonesia's production decreased by 85,000 tons to 189,000 tons, a - 4.30% change. China's production increased by 122,000 tons to 113,700 tons. The weekly开工 rates of semi - steel and full - steel automobile tires increased significantly. Domestic tire production in August increased by 8.59 million to 102.954 million, a 9.10% increase. Tire exports decreased by 364,000 to 6.301 million, a - 5.46% change. Natural rubber imports increased by 46,000 tons to 520,800 tons, a 9.68% increase [2]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 4,663 tons to 456,525 tons, a - 1.01% change; the warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 705 tons to 41,329 tons, a - 1.68% change [2]. Group 2: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Currently, there is no obvious driver in the supply and demand of logs. The near - month 11 - contract has insufficient willingness of long - positions to take delivery, and the far - month 01 - contract is relatively strong. The external quotation is firm, while the spot price has limited upward momentum. The 11 - contract is approaching the delivery month and may face greater pressure from hedging positions. The overall inventory is low, and the market may mainly fluctuate widely in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 16, the log 2511 contract closed at 797 yuan/cubic meter, up 4 yuan. The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 760 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter [4]. - **Supply**: This week, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive, 6 more than last week; the total arrival volume is about 455,500 cubic meters, an increase of 200,500 cubic meters from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the total inventory of coniferous logs in the country was 2.99 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from last week. The daily average log delivery volume was 57,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,300 cubic meters from last week [4]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The overall trend is weakening, with factory and intermediate - level inventories increasing. Supply is in excess, and demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid - demand level in the medium term. The market should follow macro - level fluctuations and the production - load adjustment of soda - ash plants. The overall strategy is to short on rebounds [5]. - **Glass**: The market is sluggish during the peak season, with fundamental oversupply. Deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak. In the long - term, the industry needs to clear excess capacity. It is recommended to stop loss on short positions for now and pay attention to spot - purchasing rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers in the medium term [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The North China quotation decreased by 10 yuan to 1,210 yuan, a - 0.82% change; the glass 2505 contract increased by 17 yuan to 1,284 yuan, a 1.34% increase. The 05 basis decreased by 27 yuan to - 74 yuan, a - 57.45% change [5]. - **Soda - Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The North China quotation remained at 1,300 yuan; the soda - ash 2505 contract increased by 6 yuan to 1,325 yuan, a 0.45% increase. The 05 basis decreased by 6 yuan to - 25 yuan, a - 31.58% change [5]. - **Supply**: The soda - ash well - working rate increased by 3.37% to 88.41%, and the weekly soda - ash production increased by 25,000 tons to 770,800 tons, a 3.37% increase. The float - glass daily melting volume increased by 2,000 tons to 161,300 tons, a 1.16% increase [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass end - user inventory increased by 346,900 heavy - boxes to 6.2824 million heavy - boxes, a 5.84% increase; the soda - ash factory inventory increased by 60,000 tons to 1.6598 million tons, a 3.74% increase [5]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year change of new construction area was - 0.09%, an improvement of 0.09 percentage points; the construction area decreased by 2.43 percentage points to 0.05%; the completion area decreased by 0.03 percentage points to - 0.22%; the sales area decreased by 6.50 percentage points to - 6.55% [5]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Industrial silicon supply increases, putting pressure on prices, but there is also cost support below. It is expected to trade in a low - level range, mainly between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract drops to around 8,000 yuan/ton, long positions can be considered [6]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 15, the prices of various industrial - silicon varieties remained unchanged, while the basis decreased. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon decreased by 50 yuan to 830 yuan, a - 5.68% change [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 120 yuan to 90 yuan, a 400% increase; the 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 7 yuan to - 375 yuan, a 2.60% increase [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the national industrial - silicon production increased by 35,100 tons to 420,800 tons, a 9.10% increase; the national开工 rate increased by 6.07 percentage points to 61.94%. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 12,900 tons to 210,200 tons, a - 5.78% change [6]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2,200 tons to 108,600 tons, a 2.07% increase; the social inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 545,000 tons [6]. Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The polysilicon market is relatively stable. On one hand, pay attention to policy implementation and production control; on the other hand, focus on whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side. Currently, polysilicon is mainly in high - level fluctuations. Supply pressure increases, which may lead to price pressure, but if the spot is firm, the downside support is still strong [7]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 15, the average price of N - type re - feedstock remained at 52,750 yuan/ton; the N - type material basis decreased by 875 yuan to 1,885 yuan, a - 31.70% change [7]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract increased by 875 yuan to 20,800 yuan, a 1.75% increase; the spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract was - 110 yuan [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon - wafer production decreased by 0.95 GW to 12.83 GW, a - 6.89% change; monthly polysilicon production decreased by 1,700 tons to 130,000 tons, a - 1.29% change [7]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 14,000 tons to 240,000 tons, a 6.19% increase; silicon - wafer inventory increased by 55,000 tons to 167,800 tons, a 3.39% increase [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance and market position of Natural Forestry (NWGL), noting a stock price increase of 5.04% to $1.25 per share and a total market capitalization of $20.69 million as of August 15 [1] - As of December 31, 2024, Natural Forestry reported total revenue of $21.54 million, a year-on-year decrease of 15.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -$8.73 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.86% [1] - Natural Forestry Group Limited is a vertically integrated forestry company based in the British Virgin Islands, primarily operating through its domestic subsidiary in Peru, focusing on FSC business operations [1] Group 2 - The company produces a range of products including logs, flooring, lumber, regenerated charcoal, synthetic charcoal, briquette charcoal, and essential oils [1] - Natural Forestry holds natural forest concessions and logging rights covering approximately 615,333 hectares in Peru, and collaborates with local forest owners while participating in wood auctions in France [1] - The company is committed to sustainable forest management, efficient resource utilization, continuous product development, and consistently providing high-quality products to customers, aiming to become a leader in the timber industry [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance and operational focus of Natural Forestry Group (NWGL), which is experiencing a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit [1] - As of August 14, NWGL's stock opened at $1.22 per share, reflecting a 2.52% increase, with a total market capitalization of approximately $19.49 million [1] - Financial data indicates that for the year ending December 31, 2024, NWGL's total revenue is projected to be $21.54 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 15.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -$8.73 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 26.86% [1] Group 2 - Natural Forestry Group is a vertically integrated forestry company registered in the British Virgin Islands, primarily operating through its domestic subsidiary in Peru [1] - The company specializes in FSC business operations and produces a range of products including logs, flooring, lumber, and various types of charcoal [1] - NWGL holds natural forest concessions and logging rights covering approximately 615,333 hectares in Peru, and collaborates with local forest owners while participating in timber auctions in France [1] - The company is committed to sustainable forest management, efficient resource utilization, and continuous product development, aiming to provide high-quality products at reasonable prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market of logs still faces challenges under the dual pressure of weakening real - estate demand and increasing port inventories in the medium - to - long term. The exchange's multiple log simulated deliveries and the relatively large scale difference between the national standard and market scales support the current disk. There is an expectation of delivery valuation repair in the market near the delivery date [6]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Spot prices: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.35%. The price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is flat week - on - week. Supply: The expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs this week is about 416,000 cubic meters, an increase of 57,976 cubic meters from last week. The total inventory of coniferous logs is 3.45 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1.77%. Demand: From January to May 2022, the new housing construction area in the country was 520 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 59,800 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 5.23% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.61%. Import cost: The lowest CFR price of radiata pine this month is 108.5 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. The downstream terminal market is still sluggish [6]. Strategies - Unilateral: Near the delivery date, radical investors can allocate a small number of long positions due to the expectation of delivery valuation repair. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [7] Second Part: Core Logic Analysis Log Supply - Short - term Arrival Volume of Logs Increases Significantly - In April 2025, the number of departing ships from New Zealand was about 63, a month - on - month decrease of 3. The total shipment was about 1.727 million cubic meters, a 14% decrease from March. 51 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.397 million cubic meters, an 16% decrease from March. In May 2025, the number of expected departing ships is about 58, a month - on - month decrease of 5. The total shipment is about 1.955 million cubic meters, a 13% increase from April. It is expected that 49 ships will go to China, with a shipment of about 1.644 million cubic meters, an 18% increase from April. From June 16 - 22, 2025 (the 25th week), 18 ports in China are expected to receive 12 ships of New Zealand logs, a week - on - week increase of 2, a 20% increase. The arrival volume is about 416,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 16% [15]. Log Inventory - High Overall Port Inventory and Inventory Accumulation - As of June 13, 2025, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs is 3.45 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 cubic meters, a 1.77% increase. The radiata pine inventory is 2.72 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 30,000 cubic meters, a 1.09% decrease. The North American log inventory is 300,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 70,000 cubic meters, a 30.43% increase. The spruce/fir inventory is 220,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from last week [18]. Log Demand - Outbound Volume Drops from High Levels, and Real - Estate Construction Remains at a Low Level - As of June 13, 2025, the national average daily outbound volume of logs is 59,800 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 5.23% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.61%. As of June 17, the sample construction site's fund availability rate is 59.05%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points. The non - housing construction project fund availability rate is 60.97%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The housing construction project fund availability rate is 49.51%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 percentage points [24]. Third Part: Weekly Data Tracking Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices - Shandong: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week, a 1.35% week - on - week increase and an 11.76% year - on - year decrease. - Jiangsu: The price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is flat week - on - week and an 8.43% year - on - year decrease. - Shandong: The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port is flat week - on - week and a 6.84% year - on - year decrease [31]. Downstream Timber Square Prices - Radiata pine timber square: The spot price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber square logs (including tax and transportation) remains stable. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1240 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1250 yuan/cubic meter. - Spruce/white pine timber square: The spot price of 3000*40*90 white pine timber square logs (including tax and transportation) remains stable. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1700 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1670 yuan/cubic meter. The price of construction timber squares is expected to be stronger next week due to the increase in raw material prices [34]. Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine FOB price: In June 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine from New Zealand is in the range of 108.5 - 111 US dollars per JAS cubic meter. - Spruce FOB price: As of June 22, 2025, the main FOB price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter spruce in Europe in June is 123 euros per JAS cubic meter, the same as in May and 2 euros per JAS cubic meter lower than the same period last year [39].