Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Natural Rubber - Short - term macro - atmosphere improves, fundamentals improve, and rubber prices rebound. Follow - up attention should be paid to raw material output in the peak production season of main producing areas and macro - level changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is further downward space; if not, rubber prices are expected to run around 15,000 - 15,500 yuan/ton [1]. Logs - Currently, there is no obvious driving force in the log supply - demand situation. The 01 contract is relatively strong. New rounds of foreign quotes have increased, and subsequent port fees are expected to rise, providing strong cost support. During the seasonal peak season, there is some support below the futures price, and the 01 contract may be strong [4]. Industrial Silicon - Some industrial silicon spot prices have decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and futures have fluctuated and closed down by 20 yuan/ton to 8,485 yuan/ton. In September, exports decreased by 8% month - on - month to 70,200 tons, but still increased year - on - year. In October, industrial silicon supply has increased significantly, with inventory risks, and prices will still be under pressure. Although some enterprises in the southwest region have reduced production, the impact on output is small. Considering the possible increase in raw material costs, the price center of gravity is expected to move up in the future. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the main price range between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [5]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon market is relatively stable. On one hand, pay attention to policy implementation and production control; on the other hand, pay attention to whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side. Currently, it is mainly in a high - level shock. In November, production reduction in the southwest region during the dry season will relieve the pressure of production growth and support prices. Be vigilant against the risk of inventory accumulation due to insufficient demand [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: Driven by the strengthening of coking coal - related varieties, the soda ash futures price has rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Previously, soda ash has been weak, with manufacturers' inventories and mid - stream delivery inventories increasing. The supply is in excess. In the medium - term, downstream demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid - demand level. The overall supply - demand pattern is bearish, and the strategy of short - selling on rebounds can be continued [7]. - **Glass**: Driven by the strengthening of coking coal - related varieties, the glass futures price has rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Manufacturers' sales are average, and prices are continuously decreasing. The trading sentiment reflects that the peak season is not prosperous and the supply is in excess. In the long - term, the real - estate cycle is at the bottom, and capacity clearance is needed to solve the over - supply problem [7]. Summaries by Directory Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The price of SCRWF in Shanghai increased by 100 yuan/ton to 14,400 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.70%. The basis improved by 100 yuan/ton to - 750 yuan/ton [1]. - The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.34% [1]. - The FOB intermediate price of cup - lump in the international market increased by 0.25 Thai baht/kg to 50.45 Thai baht/kg, with a growth rate of 0.50% [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to 50 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 11.11% [1]. - The 1 - 5 spread remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamentals - In August, Thailand's production decreased by 2,000 tons to 460,800 tons, with a decline of 0.43%; Indonesia's production decreased by 8,500 tons to 189,000 tons, with a decline of 4.30%; India's production increased by 5,000 tons to 50,000 tons, with a growth rate of 11.11%; China's production increased by 12,200 tons to 113,700 tons [1]. - The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobile tires increased by 26.21 percentage points to 72.72%, and the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires increased by 20.56 percentage points to 64.52% [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Log futures fluctuated. The 2601 contract closed at 831.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 6.5 yuan/cubic meter [4]. - The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 760 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter [4]. Supply - As of October 17, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 2.92 million cubic meters, a decrease of 70,000 cubic meters from the previous week [4]. - This week, 12 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 0 ships from the previous week, with a total arrival volume of about 438,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 5% [4]. Demand - As of October 17, the daily average log delivery volume was 63,200 cubic meters, an increase of 5,900 cubic meters from the previous week [4]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis of Main Contracts - The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 8,350 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 20 yuan/ton to 865 yuan/ton [5]. - The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 9,650 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 365 yuan/ton [5]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 8,445 yuan/ton to - 8,485 yuan/ton, with a decline of 21,112.50% [5]. - The 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 370 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.37% [5]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon production increased by 35,100 tons to 420,800 tons, with a growth rate of 9.10% [5]. - The production in Xinjiang increased by 33,600 tons to 203,200 tons, with a growth rate of 19.78% [5]. Inventory Changes - The Xinjiang factory inventory decreased by 10 tons to 108,500 tons, with a decline of 0.09% [5]. - The social inventory increased by 17,000 tons to 562,000 tons, with a growth rate of 3.12% [5]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The spot price of polysilicon increased by 0.2 yuan/kg to 53 yuan/kg and then stabilized; the futures price fluctuated and slightly decreased by 405 yuan/ton to 50,310 yuan/ton, with the futures at a discount [6]. Futures Prices and Month - to - Month Spreads - The main contract decreased by 405 yuan/ton to 50,310 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.80% [6]. - The spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 52,235 yuan/ton to - 50,310 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2,713.51% [6]. Fundamental Data - This week, the production of silicon wafers increased by 1.52 GW to 14.35 GW, with a growth rate of 11.85% [6]. - The production of polysilicon remained unchanged at 31,000 tons [6]. Inventory Changes - The polysilicon inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 253,000 tons, with a growth rate of 5.42% [6]. - The silicon wafer inventory increased by 0.53 GW to 17.31 GW, with a growth rate of 3.16% [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass price decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 1,140 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.72% [7]. - The 2505 glass contract increased by 5 yuan/ton to 1,236 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.40% [7]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash price remained unchanged at 1,300 yuan/ton [7]. - The 2505 soda ash contract increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,308 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 0.77% [7]. Supply - The weekly production of soda ash increased by 25,000 tons to 770,800 tons, with a growth rate of 3.37% [7]. - The daily melting volume of float glass remained unchanged at 89,290 tons [7]. Inventory - The glass factory inventory increased by 346,900 heavy boxes to 6.2824 million heavy boxes, with a growth rate of 5.84% [7]. - The soda ash factory inventory increased by 27,000 tons to 699,100 tons, with a growth rate of 4.05% [7].

Core Insights - Putian is recognized for its dual reputation as a "dream factory for grassroots business" and a "fake goods capital" [2] - The production of high-quality counterfeit shoes in Putian has led to the registration of legitimate trademarks for these products, indicating a shift in the industry [6] Industry Overview - The shoe industry is a cornerstone of Putian's economy, with a historical foundation dating back to the 1980s when it began manufacturing for international brands like Nike and Adidas [4] - In 2020, Putian produced 1.26 billion pairs of shoes, contributing significantly to China's total shoe production of 13.5 billion pairs [4] - The local shoe industry comprises around 4,200 enterprises, providing jobs for approximately 500,000 residents [4] Profit Margins and Market Dynamics - The cost of producing a top-tier counterfeit shoe is around 300 to 400 yuan, while the retail price can soar to several thousand yuan when sold as genuine [6] - The recent trend of registering trademarks for counterfeit shoes reflects a transitional phase for Putian's shoe industry, as it seeks to move away from the stigma of counterfeiting [6] Commercial Ecosystem - Putian's geographical and social environment has fostered a strong entrepreneurial spirit, with a significant portion of its population (approximately 289 million residents) engaged in business ventures, often relying on familial and community ties [9][10] - The "clustering effect" in various industries, such as the wood industry, showcases the success of Putian's business model, where local entrepreneurs leverage shared resources and networks [11][13] Business Practices and Innovations - The prevalence of "copycat" businesses, such as gas stations mimicking established brands, highlights the competitive tactics employed by Putian entrepreneurs [15] - The invention of "Chongqing Chicken Pot," a dish created by a Putian native, exemplifies the region's adaptability and innovation in the food industry [17] Economic Impact - There are over 2 million Putian entrepreneurs globally, with more than 1.5 million operating overseas, generating an estimated annual output value of around 2 trillion yuan [18][20] - The internal focus on familial loyalty and community trust can lead to challenges in maintaining external business integrity and reputation [20] Future Outlook - For Putian to evolve into a recognized "commercial strong city," it must transform its manufacturing prowess into original brand development and integrate its community spirit into a more structured business framework [22]

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Short - term drivers are limited, and rubber prices are expected to fluctuate. Follow - up attention should be paid to raw material output in the peak - production season of the main producing areas and macro - level changes. If raw material supply is smooth, there is room for further decline; if raw material supply is poor, rubber prices are expected to trade between 15,000 - 15,500 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 16, prices of various natural rubber varieties showed different changes, with the price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex in Shanghai rising 50 yuan to 14,300 yuan/ton, a 0.35% increase. The basis of whole latex increased by 6.98%. Other varieties also had corresponding price and basis changes [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 25 yuan to - 10 yuan/ton, a - 166.67% change; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 10 yuan to 10 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 15 yuan to 0 yuan/ton, a 100% increase [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In August, Thailand's production decreased by 20,000 tons to 458,800 tons, a - 0.43% change; Indonesia's production decreased by 85,000 tons to 189,000 tons, a - 4.30% change. China's production increased by 122,000 tons to 113,700 tons. The weekly开工 rates of semi - steel and full - steel automobile tires increased significantly. Domestic tire production in August increased by 8.59 million to 102.954 million, a 9.10% increase. Tire exports decreased by 364,000 to 6.301 million, a - 5.46% change. Natural rubber imports increased by 46,000 tons to 520,800 tons, a 9.68% increase [2]. - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 4,663 tons to 456,525 tons, a - 1.01% change; the warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 705 tons to 41,329 tons, a - 1.68% change [2]. Group 2: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Currently, there is no obvious driver in the supply and demand of logs. The near - month 11 - contract has insufficient willingness of long - positions to take delivery, and the far - month 01 - contract is relatively strong. The external quotation is firm, while the spot price has limited upward momentum. The 11 - contract is approaching the delivery month and may face greater pressure from hedging positions. The overall inventory is low, and the market may mainly fluctuate widely in the short term [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On October 16, the log 2511 contract closed at 797 yuan/cubic meter, up 4 yuan. The spot prices of main benchmark delivery products remained unchanged. The price of 3.9 - meter medium - A radiata pine in Shandong was 760 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter [4]. - **Supply**: This week, 13 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive, 6 more than last week; the total arrival volume is about 455,500 cubic meters, an increase of 200,500 cubic meters from last week [4]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the total inventory of coniferous logs in the country was 2.99 million cubic meters, an increase of 130,000 cubic meters from last week. The daily average log delivery volume was 57,300 cubic meters, a decrease of 8,300 cubic meters from last week [4]. Group 3: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View - **Soda Ash**: The overall trend is weakening, with factory and intermediate - level inventories increasing. Supply is in excess, and demand is expected to remain at the previous rigid - demand level in the medium term. The market should follow macro - level fluctuations and the production - load adjustment of soda - ash plants. The overall strategy is to short on rebounds [5]. - **Glass**: The market is sluggish during the peak season, with fundamental oversupply. Deep - processing orders have improved seasonally but are still weak. In the long - term, the industry needs to clear excess capacity. It is recommended to stop loss on short positions for now and pay attention to spot - purchasing rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers in the medium term [5]. Summary by Directory - **Glass - Related Prices and Spreads**: The North China quotation decreased by 10 yuan to 1,210 yuan, a - 0.82% change; the glass 2505 contract increased by 17 yuan to 1,284 yuan, a 1.34% increase. The 05 basis decreased by 27 yuan to - 74 yuan, a - 57.45% change [5]. - **Soda - Ash - Related Prices and Spreads**: The North China quotation remained at 1,300 yuan; the soda - ash 2505 contract increased by 6 yuan to 1,325 yuan, a 0.45% increase. The 05 basis decreased by 6 yuan to - 25 yuan, a - 31.58% change [5]. - **Supply**: The soda - ash well - working rate increased by 3.37% to 88.41%, and the weekly soda - ash production increased by 25,000 tons to 770,800 tons, a 3.37% increase. The float - glass daily melting volume increased by 2,000 tons to 161,300 tons, a 1.16% increase [5]. - **Inventory**: The glass end - user inventory increased by 346,900 heavy - boxes to 6.2824 million heavy - boxes, a 5.84% increase; the soda - ash factory inventory increased by 60,000 tons to 1.6598 million tons, a 3.74% increase [5]. - **Real - Estate Data**: The year - on - year change of new construction area was - 0.09%, an improvement of 0.09 percentage points; the construction area decreased by 2.43 percentage points to 0.05%; the completion area decreased by 0.03 percentage points to - 0.22%; the sales area decreased by 6.50 percentage points to - 6.55% [5]. Group 4: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Industrial silicon supply increases, putting pressure on prices, but there is also cost support below. It is expected to trade in a low - level range, mainly between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. If the price of the 11 - contract drops to around 8,000 yuan/ton, long positions can be considered [6]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 15, the prices of various industrial - silicon varieties remained unchanged, while the basis decreased. For example, the basis of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon decreased by 50 yuan to 830 yuan, a - 5.68% change [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 120 yuan to 90 yuan, a 400% increase; the 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 7 yuan to - 375 yuan, a 2.60% increase [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the national industrial - silicon production increased by 35,100 tons to 420,800 tons, a 9.10% increase; the national开工 rate increased by 6.07 percentage points to 61.94%. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 12,900 tons to 210,200 tons, a - 5.78% change [6]. - **Inventory Change**: The Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased by 2,200 tons to 108,600 tons, a 2.07% increase; the social inventory increased by 2,000 tons to 545,000 tons [6]. Group 5: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The polysilicon market is relatively stable. On one hand, pay attention to policy implementation and production control; on the other hand, focus on whether there is an increase in orders on the demand side. Currently, polysilicon is mainly in high - level fluctuations. Supply pressure increases, which may lead to price pressure, but if the spot is firm, the downside support is still strong [7]. Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 15, the average price of N - type re - feedstock remained at 52,750 yuan/ton; the N - type material basis decreased by 875 yuan to 1,885 yuan, a - 31.70% change [7]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The main contract increased by 875 yuan to 20,800 yuan, a 1.75% increase; the spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract was - 110 yuan [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon - wafer production decreased by 0.95 GW to 12.83 GW, a - 6.89% change; monthly polysilicon production decreased by 1,700 tons to 130,000 tons, a - 1.29% change [7]. - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 14,000 tons to 240,000 tons, a 6.19% increase; silicon - wafer inventory increased by 55,000 tons to 167,800 tons, a 3.39% increase [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance and market position of Natural Forestry (NWGL), noting a stock price increase of 5.04% to $1.25 per share and a total market capitalization of $20.69 million as of August 15 [1] - As of December 31, 2024, Natural Forestry reported total revenue of $21.54 million, a year-on-year decrease of 15.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was -$8.73 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.86% [1] - Natural Forestry Group Limited is a vertically integrated forestry company based in the British Virgin Islands, primarily operating through its domestic subsidiary in Peru, focusing on FSC business operations [1] Group 2 - The company produces a range of products including logs, flooring, lumber, regenerated charcoal, synthetic charcoal, briquette charcoal, and essential oils [1] - Natural Forestry holds natural forest concessions and logging rights covering approximately 615,333 hectares in Peru, and collaborates with local forest owners while participating in wood auctions in France [1] - The company is committed to sustainable forest management, efficient resource utilization, continuous product development, and consistently providing high-quality products to customers, aiming to become a leader in the timber industry [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the financial performance and operational focus of Natural Forestry Group (NWGL), which is experiencing a decline in revenue but an increase in net profit [1] - As of August 14, NWGL's stock opened at $1.22 per share, reflecting a 2.52% increase, with a total market capitalization of approximately $19.49 million [1] - Financial data indicates that for the year ending December 31, 2024, NWGL's total revenue is projected to be $21.54 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 15.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be -$8.73 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 26.86% [1] Group 2 - Natural Forestry Group is a vertically integrated forestry company registered in the British Virgin Islands, primarily operating through its domestic subsidiary in Peru [1] - The company specializes in FSC business operations and produces a range of products including logs, flooring, lumber, and various types of charcoal [1] - NWGL holds natural forest concessions and logging rights covering approximately 615,333 hectares in Peru, and collaborates with local forest owners while participating in timber auctions in France [1] - The company is committed to sustainable forest management, efficient resource utilization, and continuous product development, aiming to provide high-quality products at reasonable prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The spot market of logs still faces challenges under the dual pressure of weakening real - estate demand and increasing port inventories in the medium - to - long term. The exchange's multiple log simulated deliveries and the relatively large scale difference between the national standard and market scales support the current disk. There is an expectation of delivery valuation repair in the market near the delivery date [6]. 3. Summary by Directory First Part: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies Comprehensive Analysis - Spot prices: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.35%. The price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is flat week - on - week. Supply: The expected arrival volume of New Zealand logs this week is about 416,000 cubic meters, an increase of 57,976 cubic meters from last week. The total inventory of coniferous logs is 3.45 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 1.77%. Demand: From January to May 2022, the new housing construction area in the country was 520 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 30.6%. The average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 ports this period is 59,800 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 5.23% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.61%. Import cost: The lowest CFR price of radiata pine this month is 108.5 US dollars per JAS cubic meter, a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. The downstream terminal market is still sluggish [6]. Strategies - Unilateral: Near the delivery date, radical investors can allocate a small number of long positions due to the expectation of delivery valuation repair. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread. - Options: Wait and see [7] Second Part: Core Logic Analysis Log Supply - Short - term Arrival Volume of Logs Increases Significantly - In April 2025, the number of departing ships from New Zealand was about 63, a month - on - month decrease of 3. The total shipment was about 1.727 million cubic meters, a 14% decrease from March. 51 ships were bound for China, with a shipment of about 1.397 million cubic meters, an 16% decrease from March. In May 2025, the number of expected departing ships is about 58, a month - on - month decrease of 5. The total shipment is about 1.955 million cubic meters, a 13% increase from April. It is expected that 49 ships will go to China, with a shipment of about 1.644 million cubic meters, an 18% increase from April. From June 16 - 22, 2025 (the 25th week), 18 ports in China are expected to receive 12 ships of New Zealand logs, a week - on - week increase of 2, a 20% increase. The arrival volume is about 416,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 16% [15]. Log Inventory - High Overall Port Inventory and Inventory Accumulation - As of June 13, 2025, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs is 3.45 million cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 60,000 cubic meters, a 1.77% increase. The radiata pine inventory is 2.72 million cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 30,000 cubic meters, a 1.09% decrease. The North American log inventory is 300,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 70,000 cubic meters, a 30.43% increase. The spruce/fir inventory is 220,000 cubic meters, an increase of 20,000 cubic meters from last week [18]. Log Demand - Outbound Volume Drops from High Levels, and Real - Estate Construction Remains at a Low Level - As of June 13, 2025, the national average daily outbound volume of logs is 59,800 cubic meters, a week - on - week decrease of 5.23% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.61%. As of June 17, the sample construction site's fund availability rate is 59.05%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 percentage points. The non - housing construction project fund availability rate is 60.97%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The housing construction project fund availability rate is 49.51%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32 percentage points [24]. Third Part: Weekly Data Tracking Radiata Pine and Spruce/Fir Prices - Shandong: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, up 10 yuan/cubic meter from last week, a 1.35% week - on - week increase and an 11.76% year - on - year decrease. - Jiangsu: The price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port is flat week - on - week and an 8.43% year - on - year decrease. - Shandong: The price of 11.8 - meter 20cm+ general - grade spruce logs at Rizhao Port is flat week - on - week and a 6.84% year - on - year decrease [31]. Downstream Timber Square Prices - Radiata pine timber square: The spot price of 3000*40*90 radiata pine timber square logs (including tax and transportation) remains stable. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1240 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1250 yuan/cubic meter. - Spruce/white pine timber square: The spot price of 3000*40*90 white pine timber square logs (including tax and transportation) remains stable. The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong market is 1700 yuan/cubic meter, and in the Jiangsu market is 1670 yuan/cubic meter. The price of construction timber squares is expected to be stronger next week due to the increase in raw material prices [34]. Imported Log Costs - Radiata pine FOB price: In June 2025, the FOB price (CFR) of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine from New Zealand is in the range of 108.5 - 111 US dollars per JAS cubic meter. - Spruce FOB price: As of June 22, 2025, the main FOB price (CFR) of 11.8 - meter spruce in Europe in June is 123 euros per JAS cubic meter, the same as in May and 2 euros per JAS cubic meter lower than the same period last year [39].

1. Natural Rubber Industry 1.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 1.2 Core View Short - term macro - warming and state reserve purchase news boost rubber prices, but under the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand, rubber prices are expected to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to raw material supply in each producing area and macro events [2]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: On July 4th, the price of Yunnan state - owned whole - miscible rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 14,050 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.72% from the previous day. The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 110, with a growth rate of 169.23%. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 50 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.36% [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged at - 865 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 14.29%; the 5 - 9 spread increased by 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.07% [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's production increased by 166,500 tons to 272,200 tons, a growth rate of 157.52%; Indonesia's production increased by 6,200 tons to 200,300 tons, a growth rate of 3.19%; India's production increased by 2,300 tons to 47,700 tons, a growth rate of 5.07%; China's production increased by 38,900 tons to 97,000 tons. The weekly开工 rate of semi - steel tires decreased by 7.64 percentage points to 70.41%, and that of all - steel tires decreased by 1.89 percentage points to 63.75%. In May, domestic tire production decreased slightly, while tire exports increased by 7.72%. The total import volume of natural rubber decreased by 13.35% [2]. 2. Log Industry 2.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2.2 Core View From a fundamental perspective, the demand for logs enters the off - season during the high - temperature and rainy season from June to August. The arrival volume remains low, and the shipment volume from New Zealand is expected to decrease seasonally. The market is gradually entering a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, but recent positive news has boosted market sentiment [5]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 4th, the 2509 log contract closed at 795 yuan/cubic meter, up 2.5 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day. The prices of major deliverable spot products remained unchanged. The price of medium - sized A - grade radiata pine in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, and that in Jiangsu was 760 yuan/cubic meter [5]. - **Supply**: In May, the port shipment volume increased by 228,000 cubic meters to 1.955 million cubic meters, a growth rate of 13.20%. The number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased by 5 to 58, a decline of 7.94% [5]. - **Inventory**: As of June 27th, the national total inventory of coniferous logs was 3.36 million cubic meters, a slight increase from the previous week. The daily average log shipment volume was 65,700 cubic meters, an increase of 21,000 cubic meters from the previous week [5]. 3. Glass and Soda Ash Industry 3.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 3.2 Core View For soda ash, although the recent policy has boosted the market sentiment, the supply - demand pattern is still in excess. In the long - term, there will be a further profit - reduction process. For glass, the market sentiment has improved recently, but the industry still needs capacity clearance to reverse the situation. In the short term, both are affected by market sentiment, with large price fluctuations [6]. 3.3 Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2505 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.34%, while the 2509 contract decreased by 13 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.25% [6]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest China remained unchanged. The soda ash 2505 contract increased by 1 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.08%, and the 2509 contract decreased by 9 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.73% [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash production rate decreased by 1.08 percentage points to 82.21%, and the weekly production decreased by 0.8 tons to 709,000 tons. The daily melting volume of float glass increased by 0.1 tons to 15,780 tons, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass decreased by 4,020 tons to 94,390 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The glass factory inventory increased slightly, while the soda ash factory inventory increased by 5 tons to 278,000 tons, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 5 tons to 228,000 tons [6]. 4. Industrial Silicon Industry 4.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 4.2 Core View In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate strongly due to production cuts. In the long term, the increase in production after resumption will intensify the pressure of oversupply. Attention should be paid to the production - cut plans of polysilicon and the impact of coking coal prices. In the context of anti - involution policies, the arbitrage strategy of buying polysilicon and short - selling industrial silicon is favorable [8]. 4.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: On July 4th, the price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon was 8,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.57% from the previous day. The basis of oxygen - passing SI5530 increased by 80 yuan, a growth rate of 11.59% [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2507 - 2508 spread increased by 15 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 18.75%; the 2508 - 2509 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton; the 2509 - 2510 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a decline of 25% [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the national industrial silicon production increased by 20,000 tons to 327,700 tons, a growth rate of 6.5%. The production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, a growth rate of 5.1%. The production of organic silicon DMC increased by 25,300 tons to 209,300 tons, a growth rate of 13.75% [8]. - **Inventory Change**: The factory inventory in Xinjiang decreased by 22,800 tons to 150,100 tons, a decline of 13.19%. The social inventory increased by 10,000 tons to 552,000 tons, a growth rate of 1.85% [8]. 5. Polysilicon Industry 5.1 Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 5.2 Core View In the short term, the polysilicon futures market fluctuates greatly under the background of weak reality and strong expectation. The current supply increases while the demand decreases, and the price is still under pressure. However, policy expectations have a great impact on the market, and prices are expected to rise in the long term. Attention should be paid to risk management [9]. 5.3 Summary by Directory - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re -投料, P - type cauliflower - like material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The basis of N - type material decreased by 460 yuan/ton, a decline of 48.42%; the basis of cauliflower - like material decreased by 460 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.13% [9]. - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract increased by 460 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.31%. The spreads between different contracts showed different degrees of change [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of silicon wafers decreased by 15,400 GW to 11,900 GW, a decline of 11.46%. The weekly production of polysilicon increased by 400 tons to 24,000 tons, a growth rate of 1.69%. In June, the production of polysilicon increased by 4,900 tons to 101,000 tons, a growth rate of 5.1% [9]. - **Inventory Change**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 200 tons to 27,200 tons, a growth rate of 0.74%. The silicon wafer inventory decreased by 890 GW to 19,220 GW, a decline of 4.43% [9].

Group 1: Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Short - term news boosts rubber prices, but with expected increase in supply and weak demand, subsequent rubber prices are likely to remain weak. Hold short positions above 14,000 and pay attention to raw material supply in each producing area and macro - event disturbances [2] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: Yunnan state - owned new rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai remained at 13,950; the full - cream basis (switched to the 2509 contract) dropped 110 yuan/ton with a - 314.29% change; Thai standard mixed rubber quote increased 50 with a 0.36% rise [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased 20 yuan/ton with a - 2.34% change; the 1 - 5 spread increased 40 yuan/ton with a 61.54% change; the 5 - 9 spread decreased 20 yuan/ton with a - 2.17% change [2] - **Fundamental Data**: In May, Thailand's production increased 166,500 tons with a 157.52% rise; Indonesia's production increased 6,200 tons with a 3.19% rise; India's production increased 2,300 tons with a 5.07% rise; China's production increased 38,900 tons [2] - **Inventory Change**: Bonded area inventory increased 10,313 tons with a 1.70% rise; natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory at the SHFE decreased 4,638 tons with a - 14.38% change [2] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View After the previous sharp rise in industrial silicon futures prices, the arbitrage window opened slightly. Today, prices dropped rapidly due to concerns about increased production in the southwest and by large enterprises. Although production cuts help reduce supply surplus, supply in July is still expected to be sufficient. Pay attention to the impact of coking coal futures prices [4] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon increased 50 yuan/ton with a 0.59% rise; the basis (oxygen - permeable SI5530 benchmark) increased 20 yuan/ton with a 4.76% change [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The 2507 - 2508 spread decreased 15 yuan/ton with a - 30.00% change; the 2508 - 2509 spread increased 20 yuan/ton with a 400.00% change [4] - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the national industrial silicon production increased 20,000 tons with a 6.50% rise; Xinjiang's production increased 3,100 tons with a 1.90% rise; Yunnan's production increased 14,700 tons with a 146.26% rise [4] - **Inventory Change**: Xinjiang's factory - warehouse inventory decreased 2,900 tons with a - 1.65% change; social inventory decreased 17,000 tons with a - 3.04% change [4] Group 3: Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View In July, with the reduction of electricity prices in the southwest's wet season, polysilicon futures increased in positions and decreased in price. The downstream product prices are still falling, and demand remains weak. The main contradiction in the polysilicon fundamentals is the mismatch between weak demand and restart expectations. Pay attention to changes in polysilicon production [5] Summary by Directory - **Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type polysilicon feedstock remained at 34,500 yuan/ton; the N - type feedstock basis (average price) increased 835 yuan/ton with an 86.53% change [5] - **Futures Price and Monthly Spread**: The PS2506 contract decreased 835 yuan/ton with a - 2.49% change; the PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased 300 yuan/ton with a 333.33% change [5] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased 0.54 GM with a 4.19% rise; monthly polysilicon production in June increased 4,900 tons with a 5.10% rise [5] - **Inventory Change**: Polysilicon inventory increased 8,000 tons with a 3.05% rise; silicon wafer inventory increased 1.37 GM with a 7.31% rise [5] Group 4: Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View - **Soda Ash**: The market is in an obvious surplus pattern. Although producers still have some profits, there will be a further profit - reduction process. After the previous photovoltaic restart, demand growth is limited. After maintenance, inventory accumulation may accelerate. Hold short positions [6] - **Glass**: Spot sales have weakened significantly. In the summer rainy season, deep - processing orders are weak, and the glass industry still faces surplus pressure. Short - term sentiment has turned weak, and a short - selling strategy can be considered for the 09 contract [6] Summary by Directory - **Glass - related Price and Spread**: North China's glass quote increased 10 yuan/ton with a 0.88% rise; the glass 2509 contract decreased 26 yuan/ton with a - 2.58% change; the 05 basis increased 26 yuan/ton with a 2600.00% change [6] - **Soda Ash - related Price and Spread**: North China's soda ash quote remained at 1,350 yuan/ton; the soda ash 2509 contract decreased 16 yuan/ton with a - 1.32% change; the 05 basis increased 18 yuan/ton with a 13.43% change [6] - **Supply**: Soda ash's operating rate decreased 4.36 percentage points with a - 5.04% change; weekly soda ash production decreased 38,000 tons with a - 5.04% change; float glass daily melting volume increased 1,000 tons with a 0.90% rise [6] - **Inventory**: Glass market inventory decreased 67,100 tons with a - 0.96% change; soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased 11,000 tons with a 0.63% rise; soda ash delivery - warehouse inventory decreased 33,000 tons with a - 10.61% change [6] Group 5: Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Yesterday, log futures weakened and fluctuated. The 2509 contract closed at 786 yuan/cubic meter, down 4 yuan/cubic meter. Fundamentally, from June to August, log demand enters the off - season. With low arrival data in July and expected seasonal reduction in New Zealand's shipments, the market is entering a pattern of weak supply and demand. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7] Summary by Directory - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The log 2509 contract decreased 4 yuan/cubic meter with a - 0.51% change; the 7 - 9 spread was 28 yuan/cubic meter; the 09 contract basis was - 41 yuan/cubic meter [7] - **Import Cost**: The import theoretical cost was 775.09 yuan/cubic meter, a - 0.37% change [7] - **Supply**: Port shipments from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased 228,000 cubic meters with a - 13.20% change; the number of departing ships decreased 5 with a - 7.94% change [7] - **Inventory**: National coniferous log total inventory increased 10,000 cubic meters to 3.36 million cubic meters as of June 27 [7] - **Demand**: Log daily average outbound volume increased 0.21 million cubic meters to 6.57 million cubic meters as of June 27 [7]