原木期货日报 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2026年1月5日 曹剑兰 数据来源:海关总器、木联数据、Wind、广发期货研究所。请仔细阅读报告尾端免责声明。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料、但广发期货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反映 研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表 达的难见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价,投资者据此投资,风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,版权归 广发期货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为" 发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 关注微信公众号 | Z0019556 | | --- | | 期货和现货价格 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 12月31日 | 12月30日 | 张跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 737.0 | 756.0 | -1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current foreign market quotation is decreasing, the spot prices of various specifications are generally declining, and the valuation is moving down. The supply side arrival volume continues to recover, the port inventory is higher than the past two years, but the absolute total is low. Although the outbound volume continues to show resilience, it will face pressure in the future. The futures price is at a relatively low level, and the cost support limits the downside space. Overall, the reality of the 01 contract is weak, and the willingness to take delivery is low. The futures price is expected to run weakly [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 1, the prices of log futures contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 increased by 0.20%, 0.32%, and 0.32% respectively compared to November 28. The spreads between 01 - 03 and 01 - 5 decreased by 1.0, and the basis of 03 and 01 contracts decreased by 2.5 and 1.5 respectively. The spot prices of various specifications of radiation pine and spruce in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine decreased by 1.72%, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged [1] Import Cost - On December 1, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.071 yuan, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 2% to 792.79 yuan [1] Supply - In October, the port shipping volume decreased by 6.01% to 189.2 million cubic meters compared to September, and the number of departing ships decreased by 9.26% to 49 [1] Inventory - As of November 28, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs decreased by 1.98% to 297 million cubic meters compared to November 21. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 3.83% to 206.5 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu increased by 2.30% to 85.09 million cubic meters [1][2] Demand - As of November 28, the daily average outbound volume in China decreased by 5% to 6.13 million cubic meters compared to November 21. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 15% to 2.62 million cubic meters, and the daily average outbound volume in Jiangsu increased by 11% to 2.36 million cubic meters [2] Forecast of Arrival - From December 1 - 7, 2025, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China increased by 83% to 11 ships compared to last week, and the total arrival volume increased by 80% to about 39.1 million cubic meters [2]