期货和现货价格 | MJ2KTH MANITH | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 1月6日 | 1月5日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 原木2601 | 767.5 | 753.5 | 14.0 | 1.86% | | | 原木2603 | 774.0 | 772.5 | 1.5 | 0.19% | | | 原木2605 | 785.0 | 785.0 | 0.0 | 0.00% | | | 原木2607 | 797.0 | 797.0 | 0.0 | 0.00% | | | 主力合约基差 | -34.0 | -32.5 | -1.5 | | | | 日照港3.9A小辐射松 | 680.0 | 680.0 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A中辐射松 | 740 | 740 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 日照港3.9A大辐射松 | 850 | 850 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 太仓港 4A 小辐射松 | 670 | 670 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 太仓港 4A 中辐射松 | 73 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current foreign market quotation is decreasing, the spot prices of various specifications are generally declining, and the valuation is moving down. The supply side arrival volume continues to recover, the port inventory is higher than the past two years, but the absolute total is low. Although the outbound volume continues to show resilience, it will face pressure in the future. The futures price is at a relatively low level, and the cost support limits the downside space. Overall, the reality of the 01 contract is weak, and the willingness to take delivery is low. The futures price is expected to run weakly [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - On December 1, the prices of log futures contracts 2601, 2603, and 2605 increased by 0.20%, 0.32%, and 0.32% respectively compared to November 28. The spreads between 01 - 03 and 01 - 5 decreased by 1.0, and the basis of 03 and 01 contracts decreased by 2.5 and 1.5 respectively. The spot prices of various specifications of radiation pine and spruce in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiation pine decreased by 1.72%, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce remained unchanged [1] Import Cost - On December 1, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate remained unchanged at 7.071 yuan, and the import theoretical cost decreased by 2% to 792.79 yuan [1] Supply - In October, the port shipping volume decreased by 6.01% to 189.2 million cubic meters compared to September, and the number of departing ships decreased by 9.26% to 49 [1] Inventory - As of November 28, the total inventory of domestic coniferous logs decreased by 1.98% to 297 million cubic meters compared to November 21. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 3.83% to 206.5 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu increased by 2.30% to 85.09 million cubic meters [1][2] Demand - As of November 28, the daily average outbound volume in China decreased by 5% to 6.13 million cubic meters compared to November 21. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong decreased by 15% to 2.62 million cubic meters, and the daily average outbound volume in Jiangsu increased by 11% to 2.36 million cubic meters [2] Forecast of Arrival - From December 1 - 7, 2025, the number of pre - arriving ships of New Zealand logs at 13 ports in China increased by 83% to 11 ships compared to last week, and the total arrival volume increased by 80% to about 39.1 million cubic meters [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The demand side is constrained by the traditional off - season in May. The demand for real - estate building materials is lower than expected, and furniture exports are affected by the China - US tariff war, so the later demand may be further compressed. In May, overseas shipments are expected to remain high, short - term arrival pressure is reduced, and the inventory destocking is mediocre. With the current spot price continuously decreasing, the weak balance pattern of the fundamentals persists, and the futures market is expected to be mainly oscillating weakly [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of different contracts (log2507, log2509, log2511) increased slightly on February 8, with increases of 0.58%, 0.57%, and 0.44% respectively. The spreads between some contracts changed, and the basis of each contract decreased. Spot prices of various types of logs in ports remained unchanged. The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar and import theoretical costs changed slightly, and the import theoretical cost increased by 1.36 yuan [2] Supply - Monthly supply: Port throughput increased by 39.0 (24.17%) to 200.3 million cubic meters from March 31 to April 30, and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 8 (13.79%) to 66 [2] Inventory - Main port inventory (weekly): As of April 25, the inventory in China was 351.00 million cubic meters, with no change week - on - week. The inventory in Shandong decreased by 4.8 to 198.8 million cubic meters, and the inventory in Jiangsu increased by 3.6 to 116.38 million cubic meters [2][3] Demand - Daily average outbound volume (weekly): As of April 25, the daily average outbound volume in China was 6.86 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.35 million cubic meters (5%) compared to April 18. The daily average outbound volume in Shandong increased by 0.56 million cubic meters (17%), and the daily average outbound volume in Jiangsu decreased by 0.21 million cubic meters (- 8%) [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamental situation of the log market is loose. New Zealand has lowered its offer price to $110, and the cost reduction has pulled down the market valuation to a certain extent. The overall demand is suppressed by the shrinkage of building materials and is lower than expected. The market sentiment was weak yesterday, with heavy volume decline near the cost line. Attention should be paid to the support level around 780 yuan [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices of log contracts 2507, 2509, and 2511 all decreased on April 22 compared to April 21, with decreases of -2.28%, -1.64%, and -2.10% respectively. The 7 - 9, 9 - 11, and 7 - 11 spreads and 07, 09, 11 contract basis also changed. Spot prices of some radiata pine and spruce in ports showed different trends, with some decreasing and some remaining unchanged. The import theoretical cost increased slightly, and the RMB - US dollar exchange rate also changed slightly [2]. Supply - In March, the port throughput was 161.3 million cubic meters, a 23.05% increase compared to February. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 18.37%. From April 21 - April 27, the expected number of arriving ships of coniferous logs at 18 ports decreased by 45% week - on - week, and the expected arrival volume decreased by 28% week - on - week [2][3]. Inventory - As of April 18, the log inventory was 351 million cubic meters, a decrease of 80,000 cubic meters compared to April 11. The inventory in Shandong and Jiangsu also decreased [2][3]. Demand - As of April 18, the daily average log outbound volume was 6.51 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.65 million cubic meters compared to before, and the demand decreased week - on - week [3].