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申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20251016
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Polyolefin futures fluctuated at a low level and closed in the red, with a slight decline during the night session. In the spot market, Sinopec lowered the price of linear LL by 100 in some cases, while PetroChina kept it stable. For drawn PP, Sinopec and PetroChina both lowered the price by 50 in some cases. From a fundamental perspective, the medium - term market should pay more attention to the realization of actual demand and potential industrial policy changes on the supply side of polyolefins in the fourth quarter. Currently, due to the continued China - US game, crude oil is under pressure, weakening cost support. In the short term, polyolefin prices generally fluctuate passively following the cost side, and market sentiment is cautious. However, after continuous declines in chemicals, the decline rate may slow down [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Futures Market LL Futures - Previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6910, 6945, and 6997 respectively, with changes of - 8, - 4, and 0, and percentage changes of - 0.12%, - 0.06%, and 0.00% compared to the prices two days ago. Volumes were 205449, 17406, and 257, and open interests were 568826, 60269, and 618, with changes of - 8271, 1224, and 72 respectively. Spreads such as January - May, May - September, and September - January had present values of - 35, - 52, and 87, compared to previous values of - 31, - 48, and 79 [2] PP Futures - Previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6595, 6648, and 6672 respectively, with changes of - 7, - 3, and - 8, and percentage changes of - 0.11%, - 0.05%, and - 0.12% compared to the prices two days ago. Volumes were 270926, 28348, and 476, and open interests were 667779, 113474, and 3657, with changes of 2325, 2983, and 128 respectively. Spreads such as January - May, May - September, and September - January had present values of - 53, - 24, and 77, compared to previous values of - 49, - 29, and 78 [2] Spot Market Upstream and Downstream - For raw materials, the current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and plastic film were 2300 yuan/ton, 6260 yuan/ton, 531 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6510 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2278 yuan/ton, 6280 yuan/ton, 524 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6520 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] Mid - stream - For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6950 - 7500, 6900 - 7150, and 7150 - 7600 respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6950 - 7550, 6950 - 7250, and 7150 - 7600. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6450 - 6650, 6500 - 6600, and 6500 - 6650 respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6500 - 6650, 6500 - 6600, and 6500 - 6650 [2] Information on Crude Oil - On Wednesday (October 15), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.27 per barrel, down $0.43 or 0.73% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.2 - $59.42. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.91 per barrel, down $0.48 or 0.77% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.79 - $63.04 [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20251013
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin futures are running weakly. In the spot market, some prices of linear LL from Sinopec were lowered by 100, and some from PetroChina were lowered by 50. For drawn PP, some prices from Sinopec were lowered by 50, while those from PetroChina remained stable. From a fundamental perspective, the market focuses more on the actual demand fulfillment in the medium - term and potential industrial policy changes on the supply side of polyolefins in the fourth quarter. With the continuation of China - US game on Friday, crude oil was under pressure, and in the short - term, polyolefin prices generally fluctuate passively following the cost side, with cautious market sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7037, 7066, and 7124 respectively, with decreases of - 40, - 40, and - 34 compared to the day before the previous day, and declines of - 0.57%, - 0.56%, and - 0.47% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6722, 6762, and 6782 respectively, with decreases of - 23, - 23, and - 25, and declines of - 0.34%, - 0.34%, and - 0.37% respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 225133, 21799, and 186 respectively, and the open interests were 557868, 53285, and 427 respectively, with increases of 11563, 4180, and 119 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes were 251636, 14886, and 258 respectively, and the open interests were 634901, 109252, and 2775 respectively, with increases of 11295, 3625, and 170 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 29, - 58, and 87 respectively, compared to previous values of - 29, - 52, and 81. For PP, the current spreads were - 40, - 20, and 60 respectively, compared to previous values of - 40, - 22, and 62 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2390 yuan/ton, 6470 yuan/ton, 532 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6590 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2293 yuan/ton, 6495 yuan/ton, 535 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6590 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: In the LL spot market, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7600 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7300 yuan/ton. In the PP spot market, the current price ranges were 6600 - 6700 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, and 6550 - 6700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 7250 - 7650 yuan/ton, 6650 - 6750 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 6750 yuan/ton [2]. Energy News - Oil prices dropped significantly on Friday. The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.9 per barrel, the lowest since early May, down $2.61 from the previous trading day, a decline of 4.24%, with a trading range of $58.22 - $61.67. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.73 per barrel, the lowest since May 5, down $2.49 from the previous trading day, a decline of 3.82%, with a trading range of $62 - $65.36 [2].
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20250926
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefins rebounded narrowly. The prices of polyolefins generally fluctuate passively following the cost - end. In the medium - term, the market focuses on actual demand fulfillment and pre - holiday terminal stocking, and also needs to pay attention to potential policy changes in the overall supply side in the fourth quarter in China. Polyolefins may continue to oscillate in the low - level range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7169, 7209, and 7231 respectively, with price increases of 27, 27, and 13, and price increase rates of 0.38%, 0.38%, and 0.18%. The trading volumes were 167193, 10346, and 48, and the open interests were 561860, 46507, and 169, with open interest changes of - 9915, 1516, and 4 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6898, 6941, and 6914 respectively, with price increases of 21, 21, and 4, and price increase rates of 0.31%, 0.30%, and 0.06%. The trading volumes were 166035, 9614, and 198, and the open interests were 628037, 77359, and 1879, with open interest changes of - 8467, 890, and 137 [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 40, - 22, and 62, compared with previous values of - 40, - 36, and 76. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 43, 27, and 16, compared with previous values of - 43, 10, and 33 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2358 yuan/ton, 6485 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6740 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton, and 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6800 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 6850 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Thursday (September 25, 2025), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was 64.98 dollars per barrel, down 0.01 dollars or 0.02% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 64.06 - 65.34 dollars. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was 69.42 dollars per barrel, up 0.11 dollars or 0.16% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 68.42 - 69.68 dollars [2].